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Are Recent Earthquakes/Vulcanism a Sign Of Future Problems?
Ohh Boy,  anyway, welcome back Pepe.  I've actually missed your absence.  

Your endorsement of that 'stick' alone states volumes, doesn't it?   S13  

You've been an expatriate too long.
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All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
"Your endorsement of that 'stick' alone states volumes, doesn't it?"

In that it highlights the fundamental differences in our approach to data yes.

I look at the evidence, I review the data and consider the interpretations, I'll go with what fits until it can be demonstrated otherwise. You highlight 'the stick' like some talisman, but the 'Hockey Stick' pattern shows up in the temperature record whether or not you use the tree-ring data, or with or without tree ring data, if you prefer. You get similar results using data from multiple proxies, the stick model is robust. Data since 1999 when Mann first published his paper has only served to confirm the warming trend; the scientific evidence is compelling.

By comparison, as demonstrated by the earthquake graph, you are a craftsman, you select a piece of wood to build whatever you're building because it looks right for your purpose. You picked the earthquake graph from some 'end of times' blogger because it depicted what you wanted, it says from the USGS so fine you took it at face value. But if you'd gone to the source and reviewed the data on the USGS website you would have realised the graph was something someone had concocted in Excel to fit their narrative, they'd just put a label saying USGS and a bad link to the USGS website to give it a veneer of credibility.
"Common sense is not so common" - Voltaire
Reply
Pepe, you have a bachelors in geology, correct?

Concerning your knowledge in this current ice age we are living within, have you studied Quaternary Science closely?
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All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
Yes, I hold a B.Sc Honours degree in geology.

No my final year subjects were mineralogy & petrology and structural geology, and I've spent the last 36 years working in mineral exploration, evaluation and exploitation; specifically gold, diamonds and base metals. Much of my degree was irrelevant to my subsequent work as an explorationist and economic geologist, but the basic training in the scientific method of accruing observational data, postulating models, interrogating them against the data, then accepting or dismissing them, has served me well.

Diamond exploration on the west coast of Africa put me face to face with Quaternary deposits, diamonds being present in a series of raised beach deposits evidence of changing sea levels. But generally speaking Quaternary deposits are gardening to me, most of the deposits I've worked on are older than 20 million years, the oldest about 3.5 billion years.

But I do take an interest in all aspects of geology and earth science in general, so yes I am aware we are currently living in an inter-glacial period, the last ice-age having ended around 10,000 years ago, the next one is due within the next 5,000 years or so. I'm also cognisant of the work done by James Croll and later by Milutin Milanković that established the link between glacial periods and the Earth's orbit of the Sun, orbital eccentricity and the ice-albedo affect. Additionally I'm also familiar with the work of Edward Maunder and John Dalton on solar cycles.

The Quaternary Period began as a result of plate tectonics, the joining of North and South America and the closure of the Tethys Ocean, it likely will end when the Americas separate again within the next 100 million years. Humankind are little more than a pimple on the arse of a blue whale, we are an irrelevance within the scale of the Earth's history. However, there are an awful lot of us, we like to live in coastal areas and we're no longer self sufficient; we rely heavily on technology and global supply lines. So within a human geography and time frame climate change could well be disastrous.
"Common sense is not so common" - Voltaire
Reply
Well, I have a Masters in anthropology, with honors I might add, specializing in physical anthropology.  That means my specialty is in early hominids and paleontology.  So, understanding the Quaternary is a Must for me.  And yes, you are correct about the joining of the two continents being the cause of this period.   But the Pethys Ocean is Mesozoic, and I'm talking about Cenozoic, and its latest period here.  

And the last ice age did not end around twelve thousand five hundred years ago.  We are still in that ice age, as we have been since the Quaternary began.  Its just a short period between periods of glaciation within the current ice age.  And it's not due somewhere in the next five thousand, or even five hundred years.  Its due any time now.  Go check your Lake Vostok charts and compare the Holocene with earlier interglacials.  We're due yesterday.  You think I'm kidding? 

My favorite fields of geology are naturally astro-geology and Paleo-geology, because they are a must in my field of study.  The Lake Vostok data, along with Greenland ice cores are a huge revelation, but they are conveniently forgotten with politicians and scientists, such as Michael Mann,  who love all those government grant dollars.  In other words, forget all this Global Warming Horseshit, it ain't gonna' happen.  Its all just another ploy to transfer wealth from the "haves" to the "have-nots" and also generate more power for bureaucrats and politicians.  We are about to drop into another glaciation, not another ice age, because we're already in the middle of this Mother.  

Pepe, the globe is just going through its natural climate ups and downs, and we have been simply recovering from the last grand solar minimum, commonly called the "little ice age", known as the Dalton Minimum. All these increases in temperature during the last century was just a rebounding effect.  AND, we had better learn to enjoy it while we can, instead of waxing poetic and wringing our hands over rising sea levels and melt-downs.  Because the next glaciation is right around the corner, and when it arrives, and we aren't prepared, we are about to see starvation on a global scale never thought possible.  I'm talking at the very least hundreds of millions of third world people.  And countries caught up in the encroaching ice shelves are going to be invading their southern neighbors, causing wars that we only imagine in our dreams.  Are you even remotely aware of this possibility?  

And like it or not, when it comes to this planet, it is influenced by its neighbors in this solar system.  Whether we like it or not, shit doesn't just happen.   So you may want to begin to open your eyes to the possibility that some of what you learned decades ago at the university just may be a little outdated.  Growing up in the 1950s, Alfred Wegener's "continental drift" theory was still being scoffed at, but luckily I had a science teacher, who was really into all into this.  So, I had an early head's up before the main science community even acknowledged this geological fact of life.  And I'm telling you that the outrageous theory of the possibility of other celestial bodies influencing our planet AND the moving plates by causing release in built up tension, is not going to be foreign language in the future.   So, try not to scoff at things that don't click within your preconceived thinking.  Science works by a few challenging the generally accepted thinking, and they catch all kinds of grief in the process of changing thinking.  

Just remember this.  We on this planet are directly influenced by our celestial neighbors, whether we like it or not.  And Shit Doesn't Just Happen.   The science community is just recently coming to grips with the fact that this planet has been jolted many, many times by Inpactors, be they comets or asteroids.  My geologist hero has always been Eugine Shoemaker, who was the first person to actually state publicly that all those craters on the moon were the result of Impactors, and not vulcanization.  Imagine that?  And he was ridiculed for well over a decade, until the first astronauts actually landed on the moon, and took samples back with them.  

My point is this:  "Open your eyes" and remove the blinders that you have been wearing for some time now.  There's a hell of a lot more to all this geology than you may think.  And there is far more knowledge than anyone can even begin to digest, within this field alone.  If mineralogy & petrology fuel your paycheck, that's fine.  That's why you got into geology.  But the the field is wide open and the incoming knowledge is a torrent of information that is only just beginning.  

Just try to open your mind, and think of possibilities you never considered before.  Hell, I'm in my 70s and older than you.  If I can do this, then so can you.  Just don't close your mind to things you were not taught earlier in your career.  Geology is the most interesting science field I can imagine.  And if I had it all to do over, I'd have majored in geology, instead of physical anthropology.  But all of this is stimulating to me, and it should be to you as well.  Just practice keeping your mind open to new things, for heaven's sake.  There's a world of new things happening, and its wonderful and intriguing.  S22
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All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
"forget all this Global Warming Horseshit, it ain't gonna' happen"

Well it is happening, I'm not the one with my fingers in their ears going "nah-nah nah nah-nah".

Ice ages (glacial advance) don't run like clockwork, the data gives us a range of dates between 10-15 thousand years for between ice ages, we are 10,000 years into this inter-glacial period, so I am perfectly correct in saying the next ice-age will occur sometime in the next 5,000. years.

But I realise if the weight of scientific evidence isn't going to sway you nothing I say is going to change that.
"Common sense is not so common" - Voltaire
Reply
(04-23-2016, 10:12 AM)Monsieur Le Tonk Wrote: "forget all this Global Warming Horseshit, it ain't gonna' happen"

Well it is happening, I'm not the one with my fingers in their ears going "nah-nah nah nah-nah".

Climate changes all the time.  The temperature goes up and down.  That's why we have not been globally heating up since 1998.

Quote:Ice ages (glacial advance) don't run like clockwork, the data gives us a range of dates between 10-15 thousand years for between ice ages, we are 10,000 years into this inter-glacial period, so I am perfectly correct in saying the next ice-age will occur sometime in the next 5,000. years.

But I realise if the weight of scientific evidence isn't going to sway you nothing I say is going to change that.

Geologically speaking, glaciations most certainly do run like clockwork, because their causes are celestial in nature.  Further, inter-glacials do NOT last up to 15,000 years.  And we are NOT 10,000 years  into this inter-glacial.  We started right before the planet was hit with an Impactor that threw us back again, for over a thousand years.  Its called Younger Dryas.  And we didn't come out of Younger Dryas until 12,500 years ago.  Get your facts AND dates correct Dr. Einstein. 

This is from NOAA
[Image: historictemperaturerecord_greenland_610....k=WkhBmnQW]

We began recovering from the last glaciation Before Younger Dryas hit us another whammy. 

Why Younger Dryas is so Important.

As for your last sentence, stop Projecting.  Do you know what "Projection" means?  That's just what you are doing here.   You act like a Mr. Know-It-All because you have a bachelors in geology, so you naturally know everything about the field, and heaven help anyone who doesn't formally have an exact degree like yours.  Do you honestly think I have been living here for the last forty-plus years, sitting on my arse, and not furthering my education, or knowledge base?  Do you?

I've always said that one's avatar is a subconscious move that perfectly describes one's personality.  That's why I have kept calling you Pepe le pew because you run around trying to look like the smartest person on the planet, when you aren't.  Pardon the pun, but that really is no "laughing" matter.   If Dutch Baroque is your bag, fine.  But try coming down to earth, and just be yourself.   Gah
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
Oh dear John, if we're going to descend into personal attacks I'll take my browser somewhere else and let you guys play with yourselves for a few more years. I wasn't the one who asked about degrees, I just responded to your question, if you feel I'm Mr. Know-It-All then I'm sorry I'm not, and have never claimed to be, maybe you just don't like being answered back to.

As for
Quote:"Do you honestly think I have been living here for the last forty-plus years, sitting on my arse, and not furthering my education, or knowledge base?  Do you?"

I could pose the same question to you when you infer the same of me with comments like
Quote:"So you may want to begin to open your eyes to the possibility that some of what you learned decades ago at the university just may be a little outdated."

Grow up.
"Common sense is not so common" - Voltaire
Reply
Try to back up your beliefs with some facts, ok? If you are going to give off the 'official' answer, then there has to be some sound criteria you agree with, correct?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
The truth is out there John; I'm not going to debate AGW with you because that debate is over as far as I'm concerned and the vast majority of the scientific community, I'll leave you and Sarah Palin et al to talk amongst yourselves.

Back on topic. I only popped in to point out that your graph was bogus and to suggest you check the source data before posting graphs of dubious provenance. The fact is the number of significant earthquakes (greater than magnitude 6) remains very constant, the huge increase we see in smaller magnitude quakes in recent decades is because we have far more seismograph stations globally with greater sensitivity than ever before. Add to that modern communications mean these stations report in real time. On top of that everyone with a smartphone is a news reporter, the worlds news agencies get video footage of earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides you name it. So it's not that there's been any sudden increase in activity, just that we are now far more aware of what's going on, it's there on screen in front of you.

Note: So far this year we've not had our big bump - statistically we should expect at least one +8 magnitude per annum.
"Common sense is not so common" - Voltaire
Reply
(04-23-2016, 11:37 PM)Monsieur Le Tonk Wrote: The truth is out there John; I'm not going to debate AGW with you because that debate is over as far as I'm concerned and the vast majority of the scientific community, I'll leave you and Sarah Palin et al to talk amongst yourselves.

Back on topic. I only popped in to point out that your graph was bogus and to suggest you check the source data before posting graphs of dubious provenance.  The fact is the number of significant earthquakes (greater than magnitude 6) remains very constant, the huge increase we see in smaller magnitude quakes in recent decades is because we have far more seismograph stations globally with greater sensitivity than ever before. Add to that modern communications mean these stations report in real time. On top of that everyone with a smartphone is a news reporter, the worlds news agencies get video footage of earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides you name it. So it's not that there's been any sudden increase in activity, just that we are now far more aware of what's going on, it's there on screen in front of you.

Note: So far this year we've not had our big bump - statistically we should expect at least one +8 magnitude per annum.

Two things:  

Have you ever actually taken the time to seriously research the issues and data from a nonpartisan POV, before making your ironclad decision?  For instance, at first I was openly favorable to this AGW proclamation.  But I actually studied both sides, because I always apply something that ALL scientists are supposed to do.  I looked at the entire thing from a skeptical POV, and saw that the evidence was not on the side of the AGW folks.   Have you actually taken the time to view things from a scientifically critical view, and not a preconceived one?

Also, did you bother to look at both of those charts and compare where they both originated?  Did you note that both charts came officially from the USGS site?  And since it is a fact that charting actual numbers onto a graph can be completely changed, based on how one side of a graph can change with relation to the other side of the graph?  

I suspect you are too willing to blindly accept what the officially approved, government sponsored, data tells you, without studying things from all sides.   

Actually this all boils down to the original cause of our disagreement over at that now defunct site, which is the conflict over Statist Collectivism versus Individualism.  You are a proponent of the Euro brand of democratic Socialism, and I am a true Liberal, who loves Individual Liberty.  Basically, this is the root thing that is going on here.   You love government, and I love Individual Liberty, and we both think accordingly.  And science is being bounced around in between.  If the IPCC, or other government entities bless it, it has to be the holy word of an all benevolent government.  And I am highly skeptical of anything that is proclaimed by bureaucrats. 

Further, I realize that you probably pay attention to only this thread, and skip others, so you probably missed this latest post.  But the official government side isn't the only one that matters.  And as an anthropologist I am perhaps more aware of hoaxes, having studied the Piltdown fiasco from a professional perspective.   And when this latest hoax is finally exposed through accumulated facts, Piltdown will be scientific 'chicken feed' compared to James Hansen's Global Warming salesmanship.  Of course, the up-coming grand solar minimum, and the reentering of the next 'so called' little ice age, will negate all this waste of time and resources.



OH, and while you are rushing in and out, please take the time and go to this little tidbit post.  You may find that there is more to me than just some Climate Change Denier, or science kook you believe me to be.   There are other things, besides geology, that should be appreciated for their value to others.   And if you take the time to look more closely, you may find that this post is not unusual for me to make. S22
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
Yes John I do take the time to research issues and data from reputable sources, do you? If you're a real scientist then you always look at data quizzically, that's the whole principle of interrogating the data.  And no, that earthquake graph DOESN'T come from the USGS, it comes from this link http://www.tedmontgomery.com/remarks/09....egraph.gif it just indicates a link to the USGS a link that doesn't show that graph.

As for my politics you know little and understand less of my politics, you just have handy little pigeon holes where you place people, as for links to politics and climate now you're just tin-foil hat rambling.

"Common sense is not so common" - Voltaire
Reply
Great skit by those actors.  S13

Don't forget, you and I were regular members, and posters, on that forum site originally owned by the proprietor of that huge Thai forum where you Thai expatriates were sent to get all the politics off his main site.  You expressed your thoughts there quite well then.  That was back in 2004-05?  Man, that only seemed like yesterday, didn't it?  I believe you said you are from one of the smaller countries in Europe, such as Luxembourg, or Liechtenstein.  You wouldn't confirm which.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
It appears I am being proven right with my contention that gravity from other celestial bodies are causing earthquakes. Even before this article in 2012, the very question was being raised. And even last year, the very question was all over the scientific news. Well, now we are getting closer to the proven evidence.

Some earthquakes on San Andreas Fault triggered by gravitational tug of sun and moon.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
Sun and Moon might have some effect. But not Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, etc. Last time we had a grand alignment of the major planets, the detected influence on earth was zero. There was a hoax that claimed that if you jumped up at the exact moment of the conjunction of Jupiter with Pluto, you would experience a floating sensation. But of course it was not true. Were it true, the effects on earth would have been catastrophic, as the ocean sailed off into space!
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Whilst there is certainly evidence that the Moon and Sun's gravitational pull can trigger very minor seismic events (magnitude 1 or less) numerous studies have found absolutely no correlation between the gravitational pull of the Sun, Moon, or any other planet, and the occurrence of significant seismic events (magnitude 4 or greater) i.e. the one's you can feel and can cause damage.
"Common sense is not so common" - Voltaire
Reply
While Pepe's still pondering whether or not we are actually heating up, we'll move on with this additional volcano, thought to be extinct, but coming back to life at the beginning of a new Grand Solar Minimum.

Quote:Extinct Volcano Has Woken Up And Scientists Say It Could Erupt 'At Any Moment'

A volcano in the far eastern corner of Russia that was previously considered extinct may be waking up -- and an eruption could be catastrophic.

The Bolshaya Udina volcano -- part of the Kamchatka Peninsula's Udina volcanic complex -- was believed to be extinct until 2017, when increasing seismic activity was detected beneath it, scientists say.

Now, Ivan Koulakov, a geophysicist from Russia's A.A. Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics who led a study into the volcano, believes it should be reclassified as active.

"At any moment, an eruption can occur," Koulakov told CNN.

Between 1999 and September 2017, about 100 weak seismic events were detected beneath the volcano, which stands at 9,590 feet above sea level. An "anomalous increase" in seismicity, however, began in October 2017. Between October 2017 and February 2019, about 2,400 seismic events were recorded.

February saw an earthquake of 4.3 magnitude occur under Udina -- the strongest seismic event ever to occur in the area.

Volcano In Russia Is Now Active After Many Years Of Inactivity
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
And here goes Mount Agung, on the island of Bali.  She blew out last month and then did it again last night.

Agung volcano (Bali, Indonesia): strong explosion this morning, ash to 30,000 ft
Thursday Jun 13, 2019 18:14 PM


[Image: agung13june19.jpg]

And here's what she did last month, as she welcomed in the new Grand Solar Minimum.

Gunung Agung Eruption - 18 May 2019


Meanwhile, the earthquakes and tremors continue all around the Ring of Fire.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply


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