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Is China on the verge of a crash?
#41
[Image: image016.jpg]

This image shows the piers that are driven down to stabilize the building. To my eyes, there is no basement or sub-basements, the building basically built on a slab on the surface. The article explained how the change in ground slope on the up side of the building caused water to run under it and collapse the berm on the down side, next to the freshly dug underground parking garage.

The image shows a cement enclosed post system that should be engineered tp prevent such a problem, but snapped when the entire building listed toward the garage. It must have taken awhile to fall, because it was evacuated and no injuries were reported. Of course that is Shanghai, China and in China there was no one injured at Tienanmen Square, either.

In the U.S., engineering standards will not allow such a subsidence of ground around a building to cause such a structural failure. The digging of a garage so close to the building would also have triggered alarms. No permit would have allowed such a moronic piece of engineering. The ground should have been perked, tested for seepage, and shored up. With the evidence from these photos, I doubt that China even has inspectors.

Someone mentioned how roly-poly the building looked and must not have had any stiffeners. High-rises are designed to bend without breaking in the wind, so the wiggily aspect is expected to some small extent. It seems a bit too loose for me, but at least it did hold together when it toppled so it is at least superficially earthquake-proof.
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#42
[Image: image016.jpg]

This image shows the piers that are driven down to stabilize the building. To my eyes, there is no basement or sub-basements, the building basically built on a slab on the surface. The article explained how the change in ground slope on the up side of the building caused water to run under it and collapse the berm on the down side, next to the freshly dug underground parking garage.

The image shows a cement enclosed post system that should be engineered tp prevent such a problem, but snapped when the entire building listed toward the garage. It must have taken awhile to fall, because it was evacuated and no injuries were reported. Of course that is Shanghai, China and in China there was no one injured at Tienanmen Square, either.

In the U.S., engineering standards will not allow such a subsidence of ground around a building to cause such a structural failure. The digging of a garage so close to the building would also have triggered alarms. No permit would have allowed such a moronic piece of engineering. The ground should have been perked, tested for seepage, and shored up. With the evidence from these photos, I doubt that China even has inspectors.

Someone mentioned how roly-poly the building looked and must not have had any stiffeners. High-rises are designed to bend without breaking in the wind, so the wiggily aspect is expected to some small extent. It seems a bit too loose for me, but at least it did hold together when it toppled so it is at least superficially earthquake-proof.
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#43
I forwarded this to my wife who was, until recently, a building inspector/plans examiner. Now she works as a project manager for a firm of architects. Her job is to point out and correct the problems with her bosses' designs before they go to the plans examiners.

I imagine she'll have some interesting things to say about this.
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#44
I forwarded this to my wife who was, until recently, a building inspector/plans examiner. Now she works as a project manager for a firm of architects. Her job is to point out and correct the problems with her bosses' designs before they go to the plans examiners.

I imagine she'll have some interesting things to say about this.
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#45
Huh...What? Wrote:I forwarded this to my wife who was, until recently, a building inspector/plans examiner. Now she works as a project manager for a firm of architects. Her job is to point out and correct the problems with her bosses' designs before they go to the plans examiners.
Does she parse the engineering drawings as well as the design plans?
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#46
Huh...What? Wrote:I forwarded this to my wife who was, until recently, a building inspector/plans examiner. Now she works as a project manager for a firm of architects. Her job is to point out and correct the problems with her bosses' designs before they go to the plans examiners.
Does she parse the engineering drawings as well as the design plans?
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#47
If you will note those concrete posts, there is nothing but air in the center. And the only steel in the posts is wire mesh, like what you will see added to driveway slabs.

And the base, which showed a crack, had no rebar within it. If it did, the quality was so poor, it snapped along with the concrete. It's amazing the poor standards in building there.

And understand that China is loaded with corruption, this being amongst perhaps millions of such shoddy workings. Some people will do just about anything for a few extra bucks, won't they?

I wonder if the building quality inspector still has a job? And if so, how much did he have to pay to keep it?
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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#48
If you will note those concrete posts, there is nothing but air in the center. And the only steel in the posts is wire mesh, like what you will see added to driveway slabs.

And the base, which showed a crack, had no rebar within it. If it did, the quality was so poor, it snapped along with the concrete. It's amazing the poor standards in building there.

And understand that China is loaded with corruption, this being amongst perhaps millions of such shoddy workings. Some people will do just about anything for a few extra bucks, won't they?

I wonder if the building quality inspector still has a job? And if so, how much did he have to pay to keep it?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#49
Quote:Does she parse the engineering drawings as well as the design plans?

Everything.
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#50
Quote:Does she parse the engineering drawings as well as the design plans?

Everything.
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#51
The top post shows the metal post, the lower one appears to have pulled out as it toppled over. It still seems inadequate for the job.
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#52
The top post shows the metal post, the lower one appears to have pulled out as it toppled over. It still seems inadequate for the job.
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#53
It goes beyond corruption and lack of control.

They have a geniune sens of minimalism.

They build prefessional tools like toys and toys like open-and-throw gadgets.
They will do the minimum for a device to work once. If it works once, it will work always.
If a building stands 5 minutes it will also stands always.

IMO it's in their mindset: They don't see the point in building something robust. The point is not even to do things cheaper in order to rake off some percents, they just think it's useless to make something better if externaly, if visualy that's what poeple expect to see.
I don't think that chinese are even shocked by these pictures. And the article didn't say a word on how riduculous the base of the building was, litteraly standing on slippy clay.
For us, westerners, it's so laughable that techniocal comments are not even needed to explain what happened. But for them, it was not a problem of the construction itself since other buildings stood normaly. They blame it on rain and on someone digging a bit too close.

Well when thier Three Gorge Dam will break, they will also blame it on excessive rain (and climate change).

About the building not beeing reduced un rubbles as it hit the ground: This is not uncommon.
I have seen another picture of chinese buildings collapsing: They were holding each others like dominoes hafl way to falling completely.
Brick and mortar is in fact a very flexible combination. That's why we don't build only in mortar or only in bricks.
Also the bulding didn't fall at once, but probably started to slowly descend and lean forward like the Pisa Tower as the posts cracked one after another (not all at once) before it finaly lost balance.

Only one worker died, because the building was almost empty at the time.

OK!
Now the chinese just have to bring in a crane and pull it back up.
No need to rebuild it. S6
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#54
Fredledingue Wrote:OK!
Now the chinese just have to bring in a crane and pull it back up.
No need to rebuild it. S6

By George Fred, I believe you are on to something profound here. S6
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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#55
BikerDude:
hell, if i had forecast for the 21st century on me, I'd type up the whole description of how its going to happen.

The summary is this: Chinese loans are made to maintain social stability, not on the basis of whether the businesses receiving the loans actually make a profit. Because of this, when there is an economic downturn( and there always will be one in every society, because that is the nature of life), a huge number of Chinese businesses will go under because they're not profitable and are only being held up because of loansl

When this happens, Chinese political unity will collapse as well. The Chinese people are regional and more loyal to their family, local communities, and provinces than they are the Chinese government. The only thing that makes them loyal to the Chinese government is money... thus, when the money runs out, nothing else - not even nationalism or xenophobia - can unite the Chinese under their government.

At this point, foreign powers will win over Chinese bureacrats with promises of money; China will become a competing zone for industrialized nations and be divided into different spheres of influence, a la the 19th century.
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#56
You assume that foreign powers have any money left over to invest in China. Which ones were you thinking about?
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#57
jt Wrote:You assume that foreign powers have any money left over to invest in China. Which ones were you thinking about?

Zimbabwe, the people there hold a lot of humongously denominated bills.

[Image: zimbabdough.jpg]

More seriously, in a similar situation, the Japanese managed to maintain social stability for twenty years now.... stagnation, but no upheavals or collapse. China may be able too.
Sodomia delenda est

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#58
lol

Sounds like it might have been better times in Ian Smith's Africa when I look at that bill.....probably isn't worth more than 10 cents.
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#59
Quote:You assume that foreign powers have any money left over to invest in China. Which ones were you thinking about?
Foreign powers, as countries, don't make commercial investments. Private money does.
For what I know americans still have more money to invest than chinese citizens do.
The Chinese Treasury may have a huge surplus but I doubt China counts as many billionaires and millionaires (individual with huge surplus) as the US.

But China still has over a Trillion to bail out its social fabric. So this collapse situation is not for the near future.
However there will be a financial crash in China as soon as the Chinese governement decide to stop this hiden and continuous bail out.
In the meantime the big business in China will always be obedient to the regime.
This will change when the Chinese coffers will be finaly empty. Absent of any change, I give them 10 years.
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#60
Here is an e-mail, sent to Dr John Ray, where discusses China, and it's future. It's interesting, and falls within the top of China's perilous economic position.

Quote:Is China a paper tiger?

An email from the optimistic Ray Kraft [rskraft1@gmail.com] below. Mao used to call America a paper tiger, meaning that it looked strong but was not

Even the Chicom government has calculated and published its estimate that circa 2015 the number of workers in China will enter a period of permanent decline in both absolute and proportionate numbers, while the number of retireds in China will enter an indefinite period of increase in both absolute and proportionate numbers. I.e., the Graying of China begins, in about five years.

At that point, the long-term economic decline of China begins, and because of 30 years of its one-child policy - it would take generations of 2+ children per family to reverse the trends - this in a society in which one-child per family is now the social / cultural norm, and which faces an imminent and indefinite era of economic decline.

My expectation is that within a few years after the decline begins - circa 2020-2030 - the Chinese empire will begin to unravel, if it hasn't begun before then. It was cobbled together after WWII from a vast array of provinces and cultures, and is as fragile as the old Soviet Union was, and could disappear as quickly. It is held together now by prosperity and force, but as prosperity declines, force will become inadequate to keep it together.

If America avoids suicide, America will emerge within a generation as an even more dominant geopolitical and economic power as:

1. China slowly self destructs.

2. Russia, with a population declining by 1/2% per year, also slowly unravels.

3. The EU, cobbled together from a couple of dozen different economies artificually slaved to a single currency, drifts more or less aimlessly in the Sargasso Sea of political incoherence.

4. The Middle East has peaked, and if America has sense enough to move toward energy independence with nuclear and other sources (note that Obama has proposed $56 billion in new loan guarantees for nuclear power plants in his new budget), the decline of Islamic Middle East will be as inexorable as that of China and Russia.

If America manages at least to Muddle Through, at best to Flourish and Prosper, America's destiny will be to become the next "Roman Empire." It's our's to lose. The biggest threat is that America will not understand and grasp this destiny, and will fail to understand and accept the responsibility ("noblesse oblige") that goes with it. i.e., the destiny and fate of Civilization now lies in America's hands, even if we don't know it. And we need to look to the Athenian Democracy and the Roman Empire for lessons learned.

Ray Kraft was responding to a Jack Wheeler article of 5th. which also said that China was in a weak position. Excerpt:


Quote:The myth that the Chicoms magically turned their economy around on an instant dime - one minute double-digit GDP growth via the US gorging on their exports, the next minute the exports fall off a cliff as we stop buying yet they still have double-digit GDP growth via a hocus-pocus stimulation of their domestic economy - is a myth few big-time investors believe in now.

And finally, folks are figuring out that of all China's bubbles - make-believe growth, stocks, real estate - the biggest of all is its gigantic pile of "dead money" - those $2.4 trillion of our alleged dollars.

How many countless times have you heard some pundit bemoan how much we "owe" China? Yep, sure was stupid of us. We got all this stuff - as in real physical products we actually use in our lives - and they got all this paper, all these imaginary things called "T-bills" and such, and please explain how they cash them in.

Finally, bankers are figuring it out. "There's nowhere for China's reserves to go," is the latest buzz in London's City. "How do they unload them without taking a trillion dollar haircut?" And with the whiff, the merest whiff of the US defaulting on its debt, the Chicoms are running scared and retrenching. Their attempted stimulus of their economy has run out of steam - any more would be like pushing on a string.

So they've pulled back on buying up the world's commodities, which is why everything from copper to oil to soybeans is down - which is why, e.g., Brazil's Bovespa index is down thousands of points as China isn't buying its beans and iron ore.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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