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Rocket technology catches up with the Israeli's
#1
Gaza rockets put Israel’s nuclear plant in battle zone

This was foreseeable, and predicted here on AI-Jane I believe. This fact ups the ante in the Gaza situation. I wonder why the Israeli's gave Gaza back to the Arabs a few years ago, since it looks like they will have to take it back again. 1.5M irritated Arabs could make it hard to govern Gaza.

But wait, HRC will be on hand in 18 days to broker peace. Not only that, but BHO will be giving a speech in Arabia within the month to throw oil on troubled waters. Sleep will be easy tonight.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#2
if they even put boots on the ground in Gaza (which i still remain unconvinced), it will not be for very long. even the Palestinians blame their Goverments and their leaders for not being able to stop Israel. if they even move into Gaza, it will be to put Hamas in a hurt locker and let Fatah gain the upper hand. Fatah will then take responsibility for peace with Israel, which will never happen in our lifetime, as well as take responsibility to Pallestine's security. Israel has declared that they will not leave Gaza alone until the rockets stop and today Dr. Rice said:
Quote:“We are working toward a ceasefire that would not allow a re-establishment of the status quo ante where Hamas can continue to launch rockets out of Gaza,”

so we seem content with sitting this one out until they solve it themselves.

meanwhile, Hamas douchebag replacement #6,430 said:
Quote:“I call on the resistance to continue pounding Jewish settlements and cities,” said Sheikh Abdelrahman al-Jamal at the funeral of a hardline Hamas political leader killed, together with his four wives and 11 children, in an Israeli air strike on his home.

“We will remain on the path of jihad until the end of days. "


"end of days". so, we're gonna be here for awhile...
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#3
jt Wrote:Gaza rockets put Israel’s nuclear plant in battle zone

This was foreseeable, and predicted here on AI-Jane I believe. This fact ups the ante in the Gaza situation. I wonder why the Israeli's gave Gaza back to the Arabs a few years ago, since it looks like they will have to take it back again. 1.5M irritated Arabs could make it hard to govern Gaza.

But wait, HRC will be on hand in 18 days to broker peace. Not only that, but BHO will be giving a speech in Arabia within the month to throw oil on troubled waters. Sleep will be easy tonight.

do you see Clinton and/or BHO taking a seriously hardline approach in support of Israel, or do you see them taking a luke warm waffling approach with appeasement for all and equality for none?

interesting if this is a test-fire for BHO from Israel. they could have attacked Gaza at any time. this paints a pretty good picture of how BHO will handle situations in the future. could be BHO knows this too, so there is a good chance that State and BHO will feint and let this blow over.

dang but don't we live in interesting times!!!
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#4
Hamas is the fly in the ointment of the grand deal dreamed up by whomever.

Israel leaves Gaza and the West Bank,everyone is happy ever after.

Enter Hamas terrorist rule of Gaza. Bet is off. It always was,but,only me and 2 others understand this(just kidding).

Obama's role will be very similar to Bush's. He will speak soothing words,but,he must find a way to empower the PA to take back rule of Gaza for the dream of peace here to be achieved. He is not a fool as most suspect. I believe 90% of Israelis even agree with this logic.

It's flawed,but,it's what most folks think is reality. As a reminder to the Israelis themselves,Gaza and the West Bank were not occupied by you folks pre 1967 and you didn't have peace then either. Guess what? You never will have peace,get used to it. You live in a bad neighborhood. That ain't Kansas.
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#5
ok, my 2c.

Hamas' ability to strike at Beersheva is the reason why I see the conflict developing in a way that does not favor Israel. Beersheva is 25 miles (40km) away from Gaza, and of course it was not a Qassam that was used.
This means:
Hamas has access to better missiles (either fajr-3 or modified Grad).
Israelis were unable to detect/stop smuggling.
Israelis were unable to take out these missiles (notice: they are not small, likely 10m or so, and Gaza has no mountain tunnels)
Hamas is likely to have more to continue the current attrition war.

The ground operation option is likely to be used, but this is very densely populated area. Civilian casualties will be in the hundreds, no matter what IDF does (in the worst case -- no civilians killed by the IDF -- Hamas will supply enough plausibly looking bodies), and there will be stink from UN et al within days. Together with unavoidable IDF losses, this will cause the operations to be suspended before any result is reached. And there is no desirable result anyway...reoccupation is not a valid option, and reestablishment of the advanced defense points (settlements removed in 2005 did this) is not likely to find anyone willing to participate.

Either the Israelis find some fresh way to think, or they are gone. Not tomorrow, but within a couple of decades.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#6
MV: the only thing i can say to your post with any certainty is about shotting down the missiles. the response time to target a rocket and launch to shoot it down takes about 10 minutes. a rocket from firing to landing takes less than 3 minutes. there is no feasable way to shoot down the missiles, this is why they must offensively take out their missile capability.
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#7
MV,

I share your basic view. Within 10 years,Israelis have to have decided,destroy the Palestinians or fold the tent and start filling out visas and citizenship aps asap.

It would be hard to give in,but,it wouldn't shock me if Israeli Emigration becomes a danger to Israel's security within 5 years. Being realistic,there doesn't seem a win option here.

Factoring in the missle problem,It seems to me the Jews will have to slaughter the Palestinians to survive and I don't see that as a remote possibility. It's just not a doable idea with modern western culture , guilt,etc. Not to mention they may not be capable of prevailing even at a ruthless success.

The Hezzbollah debacle took the shine off Israeli invincibility. I don't foresee another smakckdown type war effort ever again like 67 or 82's effort. Most see these Arabs as idiots,I disagree. I think they live and learn like us all. Their history in this generation seems wimpy,it was not always so and won't always be again.
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#8
Ghoullio: I'm not talking about shooting a missile in flight; the technology is not there yet (if it ever will be). 10 meter missiles are large m/f's, it *might* have been possible to trace their storage locations or perhaps the drones can see them being prepared for launch. We now know this is not the case.

Palladin: Yes. They may be able to pull a rabbit from a hat yet, but this is what is needed.

Now, fall of Israel together with the US retreat from Iraq (this probably will happen first) will make the US much less influential in the ME, which still would remain the required source of oil. Multiple scenarios follow, none pleasant.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#9
I guess no one in the civilized world has any balls anymore.

I bet if Ariel Sharon ran things and it degenerated to this level we might see some really funny fireworks, or a major ground operation despite *world* opinion.

Westerners need to stop being weak. I think if Israel loses this upcoming battle, it's pretty much the path set for everyone else who obviously lacks the spine the Jews used to have. Same as what MV said I guess.

There is really nothing to add but anguish to all this junk. And Mark Steyn's Article on it.

Israeli intelligence used to be top notch I thought? Are people just hiding with their heads in a hole over there?
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#10
good work by Steyn, thank you.

ground op begins
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#11
Quote:At a certain unspoken level, we understand that the Huntington thesis is right, and the Rice view is wishful thinking. After all, when French President Sarkozy and other European critics bemoan Israel's "disproportionate" response, what really are they saying? That they expect better from the despised Jews than from Hamas. That they regard Israel as a Western society bound by civilized norms, whereas any old barbarism issuing forth from Gaza is to be excused on grounds of "desperation."

brilliant!
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#12
As I see it,the Jews in Palestine are our representatives CULTURALLY.

So,from that cultural angle,IF these western oriented folks collapse due to a lack of determination,it might be a forewarning to all westerners. They happen to simply be the most imperiled is all.

Would we Americans repeat the conquest of this continent if it started today against comparable odds our forefathers faced? Of course not. we wouldn't do it if it were easy,not enough men here willing to kill other men to form a nation,we lack the certitude we're right to do this today.

I think enlightenment thinking has stolen our former confidence. It has been the rage for a few hundred years now.I doubt the authors of it could see the results of it's widespread acceptance among ethnic Euros and it's rejection by those very people it seems dislike us a lot.

A better life,more assets,great things,we all love them. First priority though? Not worth dying over. Maybe it is to a born thug,but,a typical westerner isn't going to face death so he can be wealthier. Anon and John make the case economics drives all wars. I disagree,it drives some wars and rightly so.

Even those it does,who here thinks a guy like Tait will face death so I can own a Mercedes instead of a VW? Seriously? He won't and shouldn't and it would be immoral of me to ask him to.

When all our teens are fully enlightened up,we'll have that hippy deal,they'll have a war and no one will show up. But,the enemy. Here's hoping Israel isn't at that point yet.
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#13
Palladin Wrote:As I see it,the Jews in Palestine are our representatives CULTURALLY.
I think I see your point, but I would have to disagree that the Jews in Israel represent me, culturally. I simply do not understand their insane desire for a "homeland" including Jerusalem, among other things. Yes, I do see that they have some "biblical"/theological justification for their yen, but that is not enough for me. Reason should trump emotion. Since when do modern people succumb to such emotional issues? It puts them on a par with the Islamicists who want their global rule.

I my book, the formation of Israel was one of the greatest mistakes of the western world in modern times.

Furthermore, there seems to be plenty of evidence that the Israeli's are treating the Arabs in their control as third class citizens (or non human entities). Even some Jewish organizations in the US abhor Israeli practices vis a vis the Arabs in their bailiwick. Quite obviously, the local Arabs feel the same way, which explains why peace is not forthcoming for these many years.

I agree with MV: the days of Israel are numbered. Rocket (and other) technology and 50 years of hatred and conflict will spell the doom of Israel in the foreseeable future. Even if Israel takes out Gaza, in the manner which the Romans did Carthage, the game will not be over for Israel, more trials will come.

So, I will be amused to see how the belief that "proper diplomacy" can solve all problems that the BHO administration has will play out. I wonder what they will offer the Palestinians to "be good". I think they are doomed to ignore Huntington.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#14
JT,

Culturally they are like us. Western culture,they lived in Europe for 2000 years. Right through the reformation. Including enlightenment mentality . Lots of American Jews go there often,they don't feel uncomfortable whereas I know an Indian kid who hates going to India,it's 100% different he says. He says he feels so out of place.

The desire to live there I guess is a reaction to the holocaust because most Jews that went there in 1930-47 era were agnostic/atheists. Zionism was never driven by the Jewish religious thing and it never had enough steam to work until post holocaust.

Probably,lots of Jews want Israel as a haven if their Gentile home state turns nasty.
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#15
Well, Palladin, to some extent Jews are culturally "like us". But they tend to be exclusive and separate even in the US. Example: I had a Jewish friend in junior high school and visited his house for lunch. They were maintaining a kosher household, and ate quite different food. Perhaps you think that is trivial, but it underscores a separatism to me. I tried to date a cute Jewish girl in high school. I had one date, and that was it, she was not allowed to date a non Jew. Yes, many of them are atheists and don't care about the things I listed above. But I don't think those atheists are Zionists. So, I am not sure I want to buy your argument that "just because they were embedded in Western society, they are exactly like the rest of us".

I don't mean to be hard on the US Jews. Anyone is entitled to follow their customs and religion as long as they extend the same right to others. Probably a strong majority of US Jews feel that way.

Perhaps the Jews who want a safe haven in Israel should remember that their ancestors laid waste (the curse of destruction: I'm sure you know the chapter and verse well) to the peoples living in the region when they crossed the Jordan and began their short control of the region. Should the descendants of those annihilated have a "right" to the land superseding the Jewish one? Why not?

Maybe you will say "God gave the Promised land to the Jews". But it looks to me like God also kicked them out, several times. But that is a spurious argument anyway.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#16
JT,

Well,I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings.
My reply to the "Jews are exclusivist" I'll shy away from except to acknowledge that I have felt the "exclusivist" mentality personally,but,also have felt kindness and have been invited into Jewish Synagogue,too.

Nuff said.




I don't hear much from Jews about "God gave us this land". Most Jews are atheist/agnostic.



I hear "God gave Jews this land" from American Christians a lot.

At any rate,from Scriptural input as I currently understand it(undergone major theological changes personally in the last while about eschatology),I share your view.
Of course God kicked the Jews out of Jerusalem,it would be difficult to ignore 70AD historically. Josephus documented it in detail. Self serving for sure,but,document he did.

Where I now think much of USA Protestant Christendom has missed the "Biblical" boat is that we may have missed the theological import of 70 AD.

I think theologically we Christians here may have misunderstood much,starting with Matthew chapter 24,which is a linchpin for the idea of a renewed ethnic Israel returning as God's Client nation.



A neutral reading of chapter 24 there,taking Jesus at His Word,shows He was telling His folks then about the end of THEIR AGE,when they asked about the end of the age,it was the Jewish age ,not this Church age.

That and all the apocalyptic language(coming in the clouds,etc) coupled with Daniel 7:13-14(same apocalyptic terminology) means Jesus is discussing 2 major issues in chapter 24:

1)His vindication as Messiah whereby He is to be presented "coming in the clouds" to The Father in Heaven as Daniel prophesied The Son of Man would to receive His Kingdom,having been succeesful in His earthly mission. NOT to earth. Huge misunderstanding here.

2) His vindication as a Prophet by telling everyone in Jerusalem all these "apocalyptic language" good and bad things would occur before "this generation passes" I think verse 35.

You have to work real hard to not agree Jesus meant what He said,"THIS generation".
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#17
jt Wrote:Perhaps you think that is trivial, but it underscores a separatism to me. I tried to date a cute Jewish girl in high school. I had one date, and that was it, she was not allowed to date a non Jew.

I've met christian/catholic/etc teenagers who were only allowed to date others that was the same religion as them. and then later on, I've also met Christan women/men who would also only date others of the same religion as them.

Separatism seems to exist not only in Jewish, but in other groups too.

I think it's pretty much human nature to want to only stick with others who are exactly like them, and also to have a "us vs them" mentality when they encounter things that they don't agree with or even like at all.

in some cases that sort of mentality isn't so good at all, and can lead to severe unwarranted discrimation.
but in a sense it works for some people's goals in life, especially if you're aiming to raise children in a purely christian/Jewish/etc household.

Just saying.
Quote: “A society that puts equality… ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality or freedom…a society that puts freedom first will, as a happy by-product, end up with both greater freedom and greater equality.” --Milton Friedman
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#18
AM, I agree that it is a normal human tendency for people (and for peoples desires for their kids) to "stick with their kind". So your examples of Christian groups who want their kids to "stay in the group" by marriage of the right sort of person is normal, if a bit tribalistic. One has to wonder when such normal tendencies begin to be inflammatory or counterproductive though. What is the borderline between normal and pathological? Since my story is anecdotal, i.e. not a statistically significant sample, I cannot ague against your point based simply on my experience. Yet, it seems to me that the Jews do, in some sense, hold themselves as separate from the rest of western culture. I could be wrong.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#19
Palladin Wrote:JT,

Well,I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings.
My reply to the "Jews are exclusivist" I'll shy away from except to acknowledge that I have felt the "exclusivist" mentality personally,but,also have felt kindness and have been invited into Jewish Synagogue,too.

Nuff said.

I don't hear much from Jews about "God gave us this land". Most Jews are atheist/agnostic.

I hear "God gave Jews this land" from American Christians a lot.

At any rate,from Scriptural input as I currently understand it(undergone major theological changes personally in the last while about eschatology),I share your view.
Of course God kicked the Jews out of Jerusalem,it would be difficult to ignore 70AD historically. Josephus documented it in detail. Self serving for sure,but,document he did.

Where I now think much of USA Protestant Christendom has missed the "Biblical" boat is that we may have missed the theological import of 70 AD.

I think theologically we Christians here may have misunderstood much,starting with Matthew chapter 24,which is a linchpin for the idea of a renewed ethnic Israel returning as God's Client nation.

A neutral reading of chapter 24 there,taking Jesus at His Word,shows He was telling His folks then about the end of THEIR AGE,when they asked about the end of the age,it was the Jewish age ,not this Church age.

That and all the apocalyptic language(coming in the clouds,etc) coupled with Daniel 7:13-14(same apocalyptic terminology) means Jesus is discussing 2 major issues in chapter 24:

1)His vindication as Messiah whereby He is to be presented "coming in the clouds" to The Father in Heaven as Daniel prophesied The Son of Man would to receive His Kingdom,having been succeesful in His earthly mission. NOT to earth. Huge misunderstanding here.

2) His vindication as a Prophet by telling everyone in Jerusalem all these "apocalyptic language" good and bad things would occur before "this generation passes" I think verse 35.

You have to work real hard to not agree Jesus meant what He said,"THIS generation".
I know what Jesus meant when he said "Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly are ravening wolves." Matt 7:15
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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