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Why India Will Bypass China
#1
Dick Morris has an article, Why India Wil Bypass China, and he states pretty much what I have said all along. India will pass China on the road to wealth and power status.

I am still convinced that China is in for a severe economic downturn over it's horrible financing fiascos. It is authoritorian, inefficient, and Collectivist. But India is becoming a different animal. It is endoursing Free Enterprise, and Free Trade faster. Like China, India has a large ecucated portion of it's population, and their economic practices will help them leap ahead of thier long time enemy.

Morris' points are very well given. The concept of service sector vs manufactuing sector makes great sense. If you look at the manufacturing sector today, it is almost exclusively composed by robots, not people. And this is something that leftists and many rightists don't think about when they state that our manufacturing base is withering. this is simply not true, because we are manufacturing more than ever before. We just do it with out people intensive jobs.

And if you look at the language, English is the unofficial language in India, not China. So India has one up on China there also. And GDP is growing faster in India also.

As far as imperialism is concerned, the history of India is nonimperialistic, but that could change over time. But I suspect that India will be like the Japanese and use economics as the outlet for conquest.

Anyway, a great article, and full of optimism that is a trademark if Dick Morris. Enjoy. Wink1
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All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#2
For some reason, I like this POV better then all the Chicken Little's concerning China. India does have over a billion people (and a massive Army), plus its strategic location makes it a good ally to be made.

BUT, what about the Taiwan issue?

What about an increasingly militant China?

What about the reports of spies in nations such as Australia, the US, etc -- as reported by a defector (I will get the links in a moment, once I sift through that massive archive on my IE favorites..)?

Those issues still remain, and they may come to a head sooner then India bypassing China and China taking a dump.

EDIT IN ITALICS
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#3
John
I still go back to the one sticky wicket...hundreds of millions of young frustrated men growing to maturity in China due to their birth control measures combined with wanting boy children.
That salient reality scares the stuffins out of me.
Ken
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#4
KenBean Wrote:John
I still go back to the one sticky wicket...hundreds of millions of young frustrated men growing to maturity in China due to their birth control measures combined with wanting boy children.
That salient reality scares the stuffins out of me.
Ken

You are right. But the leaders of China have much more to fear than we. I suspect that this could lead to the destruction of the PRC, due to the potential violence, with all those horney, frustrated males running around. Of course, the PRC would have a hard time blaming the US for this result.

Plus, it would be perfectly fitting, as they are the ones who inadvertinly led to the female infanticide in the first place
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#5
If you think about it, this is actually similar (in a way) to one of the main problems with Islam. In China, females are a scarce resource. The gov's and even the culture's failure to recognize the value of women led to this condition. While the demographics of Islamic nations are different than that (plenty of women), the root problem is the same. Their inability to recognize women as a resource within the economy. Roughly half of the population that could be working or innovating is underutilized. Its like going through life unwilling to use your left hand at all because you consider it inferior to your right.

But John I disagree with you on one thing. I am absolutely positive that they PRC will find a way to blame it on the US. :evil:
"Most people just want tomorrow to look pretty much like today." - Terry Pratchett
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#6
Seabird Wrote:But John I disagree with you on one thing. I am absolutely positive that they PRC will find a way to blame it on the US.

Oh, I've no doubt that they will. But I stated that they would have a "hard time" blaming it on us, as it defies logic. And there are enough Chinese who use logic that it will not really fly as they intend.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#7
The US - India relationship,given time,will encourage all the investment we DID send to China to be sent to India. THAT alone,combined with India's newfound views on capitalism will enhance her wealth potential greatly. It will also harm China.

India will never be a serious deterrent to China strategically,IMO. There are natural boundaries that inhibit them coming to blows and IMO the Indians don't have a global ambition such that it would drive them to act like we do.

India has the caste system to hold them back as well.

demographics are horrible for China,the enhanced quantity of male testosterone means 1 thing and 1 thing only,China will have some real good war or wars over the next generation. Here's hoping we're smart enough to either drop our ambitions or do what it takes to win in combat with China,because our ambitions will make it a certainty,IMO. My guess is we'll do NEITHER.

It's unreasonable to imagine China voluntarily ceding regional power to us at some point in their development and it's naive for an American to think they should. China is more an Asian power than we are.

I wish we acted more like Switzerland myself.
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#8
Palladin Wrote:I wish we acted more like Switzerland myself.

Unfortunately, if we did, we would eventually wind up in another WWII situation, because everything went to hell in a hand basket. And since we have a global economy, and the US attains it wealth from this, we are naturally drawn in.

We really have no choice if we are to maintain our standard of living and further the cause of Libertry. I'm sad to say this too. S7
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#9
John,

This is where we disagree. We got attacked by Japan because our Army was the 37th largest on earth AND because we contended with Japan to be THE Asian hegemon,it's the same reason we're going to have a war with China,only difference is we'll have the war with China start in the South China Sea instead of Pearl Harbor.

John,the world existed before we became a global power.

Let us keep the strongest military on earth and stay home,let the world do as the world wants to do,so long as we are powerful,they'll be forced to leave us alone. I wouldn't even send a sailor overseas on a cruise for economic reasons.
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#10
Pal - I don't think you can have one without the other. One of the reasons we are the world's largest power is because of how actively engaged we are throughout the globe. If we were to retreat into a more isolationist posture then our ability to trade, influence global culture, and project power would fade (as it did with Great Britain). The power we have comes at a price. The debate is whether or not we want to continue paying that price for that power.

Ultimately general economics will dictate our future. Or rather, economic theory - law of diminishing returns. Once we reach a point where we decide that the benefits we receive as being El Numero Uno are no longer worth their relative cost (both in terms of cost and general hostility), you will start to see us withdraw.

Britain was able to do it totally and entirely because we were there to pick up the slack. A benefit to them really because it was much easier to hand the reigns over to a fellow Anglo nation with a similar culture and ideals. If we are to withdraw though, who do we hand the reigns over to? The Chinese? The Indians? What other growing power are we as friendly with as the Brits were with us?

I am afraid that we must carry on into the foreseeable future because the alternatives are too detrimental to our current way of life.
"Most people just want tomorrow to look pretty much like today." - Terry Pratchett
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#11
I think China will probably solve their reproduction problems with birth control. In fact, I think the people of China are probably already solving their problems using that very solution. I don't know what the official Chinese policy towards it is, but China is afterall a place where you can get many many things cheaply over the black market. I suspect that includes abortion services.

See, I doubt the people of China are abstaining from sex anymore than they did before the 'one child only' policy. You need thorough brainwashing to get people to do that - a la the Muslim world.
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#12
SB,

I don't WANT to be a global power,I guess that's where you and I diverge. I want to be an AMERICAN POWER only. YES,it is possible,Germany was a HELL of a power in 1939 scaring FDR to death and they didn't have the Navy enough to cross the English channel!

Japan would never have even thought to attack us if we had either been powerful or had not had Asian ambitions. Had we no ambitions in the Pacific back then,they wouldn't have needed to attack us,they would have attacked whomever got in their way of ruling Asia and that was us.

Myself,I don't care who rules Asia.

I care only about the USA and I think we learned the wrong lesson. Being strong was the proper lesson,being the global robo cop was the wrong lesson.

If we maintain a super powerful military,none of the jackals across the globe will screw with us and those who benefit from today's US forward deployments,well,we wouldn't have to listen to those cranks anymore would we?

I disagree that the world will collapse or we will lose our freedom if we don't have soldiers across the globe. We just need enough to deter encraochments right here,like Switzerland acts.

I exempt the current GWOT from this view incidentally.
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#13
Patrick, let me state that I always want the US to be THE global "economic" power, or at least on parady with it's neighbors. The rest will tend to take care of itself, more or less.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#14
Me,too. That is not the same as us being the robo cop.

Germany is a global economic power,think they did anything about sending their soldiers abroad to help fight anyone since 1945?

NOPE.
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#15
Palladin Wrote:Me,too. That is not the same as us being the robo cop.

Germany is a global economic power,think they did anything about sending their soldiers abroad to help fight anyone since 1945?

NOPE.

No they are not! They are a socialized welfare-state disaster. Have you been watching lately? And they are having their industry leaving the country. Damiler Benz will be next soon. Just wait.

And they have dug themselves into such a hole that they can't afford a decent military AND welfare system AND stay afloat. So the military had to go. That is one of the reasons for not sending troops, along with their coalition with France.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#16
Palladin Wrote:the enhanced quantity of male testosterone means 1 thing and 1 thing only,China will have some real good war or wars over the next generation.
Why? With their cheap manufacturing they can bottle it and sell... to France, for example. For France it would be cheaper to buy than to produce its own. :lol: :lol:
(If they need it, of course).
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#17
John L Wrote:And they have dug themselves into such a hole that they can't afford a decent military AND welfare system AND stay afloat. So the military had to go. That is one of the reasons for not sending troops, along with their coalition with France.

I feel sorry for those guys in the Bundeswehr. All geared for battle and then told war isn't the answer? I am sure the German batte lust is in there somewhere. Some guy once said Christianity softened it, but I guess now socialism literally killed it (the military anyways). :?

Anyhoo, back to the original programming -- Anyone know how we are going to balance our relations between Pakistan and India? They are both enemies, and how are we going to be friends with the both of them?
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#18
The India problem relating to the U.S. was expressed by Tom Clancy in one of his novels. Of course in the novel, a heroic U.S. submariner headed off disaster, but the ingredients as Clancy enumerated them are still set in place as he described..

What he noted was the India military, especially its naval forces - the eighth greatest in the world. By itself, it is not in our league, but the Indian Navy could neutralize us in the Indian Ocean as China invades Taiwan, and in so doing - dictate the direction of world events.
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#19
WmLambert Wrote:What he noted was the India military, especially its naval forces - the eighth greatest in the world. By itself, it is not in our league, but the Indian Navy could neutralize us in the Indian Ocean as China invades Taiwan, and in so doing - dictate the direction of world events.

Assuming they don't like us, which doesn't seem to be the case...

Of course, by neutralize, you mean fight us?
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#20
WmLambert Wrote:The India problem relating to the U.S. was expressed by Tom Clancy in one of his novels. Of course in the novel, a heroic U.S. submariner headed off disaster, but the ingredients as Clancy enumerated them are still set in place as he described..

What he noted was the India military, especially its naval forces - the eighth greatest in the world. By itself, it is not in our league, but the Indian Navy could neutralize us in the Indian Ocean as China invades Taiwan, and in so doing - dictate the direction of world events.

I don't think that Clancy's India fits in with real events. Some of his fiction naturally does not work out in real life, and this is one of them.

And since China and India are every bit as contintuous as the relationship between us and China, I doubt that India would try to neurtalize us as a favour for the PRC. Of course China will try to alienate us from EVERYBODY in the future, but I doubt that it will work with India OR Australia. All the countries in the area see the PRC as a potential threat and will do what they deem necessary to neutralize her.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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