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Hotter weather, fewer deaths
#1
There is a reason the medieval warm period is called climate optimum and it was warmer than we are now.

Hotter weather, fewer deaths
Man-made global warming will take thousands of lives. It will save many more

Bjorn Lomborg, National Post
Published: Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Quote:What will happen over the coming century, with temperatures rising? The standard story is that our world will become a very unpleasant one. Famously, the chief scientific advisor to the British government, Sir David King, even envisions that an ice-free "Antarctica is likely to be the world's only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming remains unchecked."

Nearly all discussions of the future impacts of global warming use the 2003 heat wave in Europe as their prime example. In Al Gore's words: "We have already begun to see the kind of heat waves that scientists say will become much more common if global warming is not addressed. In the summer of 2003 Europe was hit by a massive heat wave that killed 35,000 people."

Yet while we will see more and hotter heat waves, talking only about heat waves means we leave out something even more important.

The International Panel on Climate Change finds that the trends we have seen over the 20th century will continue, with temperatures increasing more over land, more in the winter and especially in the high northern latitudes: Siberia, Canada and the Arctic. In the wintertime, temperatures might increase 9F in Siberia compared to perhaps 5F in Africa. There will be an increase in heat waves and a decrease in cold spells.

Models show that heat events we now see every 20 years will become much more frequent. By the end of the century, we will have such events happening every three years. This confirms the prospect that we could be seeing many more heat deaths -- a tragedy that will indeed be caused by global warming.

But cold spells will decrease just as much as heat waves increase. In areas where there is one cold spell every three years, by the end of the century such spells will happen only once every 20 years. This means fewer deaths from cold, something we rarely hear about. It might seem callous to weigh lives saved versus those lost, but if our goal is to improve the lot of humanity, then it's important to know just how many more heat deaths we can expect compared to how many fewer cold deaths.

For almost every location in the world, there is an "optimal" temperature at which deaths are the lowest. On either side of this temperature -- both when it gets colder and warmer -- death rates increase. However, what the optimal temperature is is a different issue. If you live in Helsinki, your optimal temperature is about 59F, whereas in Athens you do best at 75F. The important point to notice is that the best temperature is typically very similar to the average summer temperature. Thus, the actual temperature will only rarely go above the optimal temperature, but very often it will be below. In Helsinki, the optimal temperature is typically exceeded only 18 days per year, whereas it is below that temperature a full 312 days. Research shows that although 298 extra people die each year from it being too hot in Helsinki, some 1,655 people die from it being too cold.

It may not be so surprising that cold kills in Finland, but the same holds true in Athens. Even though absolute temperatures of course are much higher in Athens than in Helsinki, temperatures still run higher than the optimum one only 63 days per year, whereas 251 days are below it. Again, the death toll from excess heat in Athens is 1,376 people each year, whereas the death toll from excess cold is 7,852.
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As Gary Lloyd said, "When the government’s boot is on your throat, whether it is a left boot or a right boot is of no consequence."
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#2
Lomborg is very good with statistics. He knows where to find the data.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#3
Maggie, as usual he does a magnificant job of exposing the utter hyprocrisy of bureaucrats, certain scientists, and the MSM. The very fact that they steadfastly refuse to place cold weather deaths into perspective with hot weather ones is shameful.

Perhaps herr Stroll will take the time and bother to read this herasy from the master heratic.

Logged into the Skeptics Thread. Wink1
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“Don’t confuse me with facts, my mind is made up” — Saint Al of the Gore -
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#4
John L Wrote:Perhaps herr Stroll will take the time and bother to read this herasy from the master heratic.
Will you report me to the inquisition of GW-deniers and the grand-lodge of ai-jane if I don't avow to being guilty of shamelessly reading forbidden sources not mentioned in your skeptics thread and seriously consider them? S2

Btw, I don't think I said anywhere I am concerned about more people dying from heat-waves in future? The article does not contradict anything I believe, I think the argument is rather limited in scope on both sides. S1
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.
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#5
Alright, alright, I'll quit giving you so much grief on this AGW stuff. I still believe you are 'sandbagging' us on this, but I'm willing to relax.

I just constantly am amazed at the lack of common sense being applied to this subject. And as I have stated, there are three groups of people who work in concert on this: politicians, self-serving scientists, and the MSM, where bad news generates news. It's the biggest scam of the century,....at least.
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“Don’t confuse me with facts, my mind is made up” — Saint Al of the Gore -
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#6
scpg02,
amazing plethora of junk you have access to. More people dying from hypothermia than from heat in a Skandinavian country, indeed. What a pathetic BS. If people dress up inappropriately in the winter, or go to sleep jagged in the snow, can we blame the weather? Now tell me how to dress against the heat?
35,000 victims of 2003's heatwave in Europe, is that not convincing enough?
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#7
The Q queried:
Quote:Now tell me how to dress against the heat?


May I suggest a loin cloth for modesty and access to a rain forest! :lol:

Now, as to the dubious claim of 35,000 European victims of heat can we just assign that figure as a consequence of ignorance on the part of certain disorganized societies. Temperatures of 45C degrees are hardly mortal--call it summertime in Sevilla if you will--or anomalous in urban environments except as a result of demanding to do what should not be done.
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the former."

Albert Einstein
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#8
quadrat Wrote:scpg02,
amazing plethora of junk you have access to. More people dying from than from heat in a Skandinavian country, indeed. What a pathetic BS. If people dress up inappropriately in the winter, or go to sleep jagged in the snow, can we blame the weather? Now tell me how to dress against the heat?
35,000 victims of 2003's heatwave in Europe, is that not convincing enough?


[Image: franceheat_cp_4847367.jpg]
One must also take into consideration that the heat wave came at a time when most Europeans are enjoying their August vacation time leaving their inconsiderate elderly to fend for themselves alone. Thousands of bodies lay unclaimed during this period and had to be buried by the municipality at its expense. What is more important, installing air-conditioning or saving the planet?

Many street people die of hypothermia in Canada because they refuse to take shelter in the emergency spaces we have available for them. How do you reason with the insane? At one time, we could just arrest them for their own good, but the Left Wing Loonies argued that this was a violation of their rights. Now they suffer a politically correct death.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
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#9
Warbicycle,
you are quite right, heat waves traditionally take place in the summer months, to which August belongs. It's not the core holiday season in most of Europe, that's July. August is considerably colder than July, at least in the nights. In this heat wave however, the night temperatures didn't drop below 25 celsius.

As for the second paragraph, I'm not sure it contradicts what I said. Okay, the lefties are to blame if people die from heat or cold or meteors. I suspect you are not too unhappy about the social cleansing in cold nights?

drgonzaga,
Mediterranean countries and Middle East got used to the heat, Central Europe not yet. Germans and French now nothing about Siesta and relocating their lives into the nights. Myself felt a bit chilly the last nights here, temperatures a little below 25 celsius. Put a long sleeved shirt on. Three years ago, I sweated like grazy.
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#10
quadrat Wrote:Myself felt a bit chilly the last nights here, temperatures a little below 25 celsius. Put a long sleeved shirt on. Three years ago, I sweated like grazy.
Ah, if this isn't proof that the climate is cooling rather than warming, and that GW is a hoax... :lol:

The obvious solution here is to buy more clothes and install central heating in your Thai residence. This is how global cooling benefits the Thai economy, it's all good!
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.
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#11
Why stop at central heating, install air-conditioning to make life more comfortable when its hot. Think of all the jobs you'll create.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
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#12
I assumed Q has aircon already.
This should be standard in all households, then we could burn more coal to create the electricity to run the aircons. CO2 has no effect on climate as we know already, S6

On a serious, practical note, there are heat exchange units which can produce hot as well as cold air (Mitsubishi is the leading, if not only brand in Thailand), it's a slightly different and more energy-efficient principle than 'normal' air-conditioning, based in 'inversion' if I remember correctly.
I almost bought one years ago, but the purchase price is considerably higher, and frankly, it is a very rare occasion I would want hot air here.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.
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#13
We need both here, temperatures run from minus 30 Celsius in the winter to plus 37 Celsius in the summer. The humidity is the killer here during the summer months. My wife and I hosted a Brazilian Rotary exchange student for six months; she was barely able to cope with the humidity.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
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