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Iran Influence in Iraq
#1
Wonder if this is accurate? What do Shia in Iran and Iraq think of this?



http//www.nysun.com/article/46032
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#2
Talk about Machiavellian o_O

Its possible.
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#3
It's entirely possible.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#4
It is probably true.

Notice that Iran also maintains pretty close relations with mainstream Shia and Kurds.

In fact, there is exactly one group in Iraq that gets no support from Tehran.

Care to guess?
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#5
mv Wrote:It is probably true.

Notice that Iran also maintains pretty close relations with mainstream Shia and Kurds.

In fact, there is exactly one group in Iraq that gets no support from Tehran.

Care to guess?

Assyrians?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#6
The Baathists, I'm guessing. Or Christians?
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#7
I am going to go a bit more obvious and say the Sunni?
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#8
Christian and Assyrians are very minor groups..... Turkomans are more numerous, but it is the Baath (==nationalist Iraqis) that Iran really does not like....

Gunnen4u Wrote:I am going to go a bit more obvious and say the Sunni?

No, Tehran actually does help *Islamist* Sunnis... see the article above.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#9
We know they're backing some Sunnis S6

Yeah, Baathists were my first guess. What Iran is probably frightened of most of all is a united Iraqi government, Sunni *or* Shiite.
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#10
Anonymous24 Wrote:We know they're backing some Sunnis S6

Yeah, Baathists were my first guess. What Iran is probably frightened of most of all is a united Iraqi government, Sunni *or* Shiite.

U-hu.

In fact, in retrospect it seems that our first PM choice, Allawi, was a pretty good candidate. Unfortunately, we started playing democracy a bit too fast.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#11
Well, my theory is that Bush and co. wanted to make a secular, Sunni-dominated government under Allawi, similar to Hussein's except for the psychotic dictator part, but that they dropped the ball by trying to pander to the Shiites. This is talked aabout a little in "State of Denial"(the Bob Woodward book), where Cheney compares Sistani to "a cranky Congress committee chair who should be 'cultivated' but not listened to"(words to that effect). there is another part discussed about how Allawi wanted a ignore the Shiite political groups, didn't even want Sistani in the country, but the Bush administration thought it would look bad.
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#12
We did not deliberately transfer power to the Shia Islamic parties.... we simply rushed with the elections.

If we operated on the same timescale as in Germany: build up the economy and infrastructure, get rid of the dangerous elements, and wait with elections for four years, we would have had better chances.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#13
Good point Mv but then the 5th column here would use the lack of democracy as an example we wanted a tyrant and then undermine the mission that way. The Iraqis would have grown deeply suspicious of our intentions and the insurgency could have then become a popular one. Elections while leading to a political mess it has in fact discredited the insurgent groups as a political movement to rally behind.

These militias are supported for the same reason an inncer city kid joins a gang. You need to make it more painful to join the gang than to not join and it needs to be swift. Malaki needs to outright ban militias and the US coalition and the Iraq army needs to move in and destroy all armed militias who do not disarm. Also crush the sunni terrorists, and the baathists if they do not comply.

We have been at war with Iran since Saddam fell. We need to realize this, Iran doesn't just play at home, Iraq and Lebanon. They play all over the region. We need to do the same. They need to lose Asad in Syria, they need to have their militias crushed in Iraq. We must undermine them from within as well. If war seems confusing and difficult keep one simple rule in mind, you do everything you can to hurt the enemy at every level from every angle.

Iran is the enemy, it might have started with Al Qaeda and 9/11 but Iran has taken the movement under its wing and uses various flavors of the movement for its agenda. Perhaps Iran needs a civil war of their own. :idea:
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#14
mv Wrote:We did not deliberately transfer power to the Shia Islamic parties.... we simply rushed with the elections.

If we operated on the same timescale as in Germany: build up the economy and infrastructure, get rid of the dangerous elements, and wait with elections for four years, we would have had better chances.

No, we were in the big rush for making the "exit strategy", otherwise, yea, we could have done that.
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#15
Anonymous24 Wrote:The Baathists, I'm guessing. Or Christians?
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Most Christians are gone from Iraq now. They simple left the country after 2003.

But Baathists is a right guess. The secular and somewhat antireligious Baath party was never anything that the mullahs in Teheran could stand.

/track_snake
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#16
track I hear there are plenty of christians in Iraq. I'm sure people have left, mostly muslims though.
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#17
Democracy in a Middle Eastern and most of the other countries can not be rushed. Mostly they start with Sultan or King, then a hard dictator takes over the country and runs it for about 30 or 40 years. He gets replaced by a softer dictator, and he runs the country for a few decades. During that time, people start finding a little bit about democracy and slowly develop a taste for it. Finally, democracy takes over, but they still have some serious problems in the beginning. In the worst case they have civil war, break up into smaller countries, but finally democracy flourishes.
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As far as Iran goes, I would expect them to Stir the Iraq pot to cause anarchy. People completely worn out by in-fights are much easier to take over and control.
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#18
Independents4Bush Wrote:track I hear there are plenty of christians in Iraq. I'm sure people have left, mostly muslims though.
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There has always been a christian minority in Iraq. Even some leading Baathists under Saddam (most notably the foreign minister and UN representative of Iraq Tariq Aziz) were Christians.

But what I am saying is that Christians have been leaving Iraq after 2003 because of religious discrimination by the Shia muslims. Many Christians have even been killed in Iraq. Churches have been destroyed and Christians are afraid of going to their churches.

During Saddam, the Christians had respect as a religious minority.

/track_snake
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#19
CIA Factbook:

Quote:Muslim 97% (Shi'a 60%-65%, Sunni 32%-37%), Christian or other 3%

3% includes not just Christians but also still numerous Kurdish pre-Islamic religions.

While we don't have specific numbers for secular Sunni's, I'd guess it is fairly high, Baath was in power for 40 years.

I4B Wrote:Good point Mv but then the 5th column here would use the lack of democracy as an example we wanted a tyrant and then undermine the mission that way.

Sadly, this is true, but I'm still seeing this as Bush' error. He should have said "no overnight democracy" and stuck to it... the 5th column would have whined, but they always had something to whine about....
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#20
I am not surprised,but I just wonder,what do Iranian&Iraqi Shia think of Iran assisting al qaeda in Iraq? Most the massacres of Shia were theirs.
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