Poll: is the policy of withdrawl benefitting Israel?
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Gaza: ebb and flow
#41
Quote:You have GOT to be kidding. How do you figure Krauthammer as optimistic?? We obviously have very different standards. Over-optimism would be some statement that the PA can actually control the violence

I was not talking about the PA part: whether it controls the situation or does not, any hopes that a civilized society may be created in Gaza any time soon is a clinical case of over-optimism. Krauthammer does not suffer from this disease.

His over-optimism is in assuming that Sharon actually thought through the situation and knows what he is doing; I don't think this is the case. A typical right-wing optimist thinks that the newly created terrorist ministate in Gaza either can be dealt with or can provide an example to the world why terrorist anclaves are not a good idea.

In all cases, a withdrawal from Gaza makes *some* sense.

But Sharon did not just withdraw from Gaza: the small withdrawal from the Northern West Bank clearly shows that the entire package was not a plan conceived by Sharon but imposed from outside.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#42
How does the small withdrawal from a portion of the West Bank prove that Sharon is not in charge and instead, following events imposed on him?
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#43
WmLambert Wrote:How does the small withdrawal from a portion of the West Bank prove that Sharon is not in charge and instead, following events imposed on him?

Because it absolutely does not fit into the picture Krauthammer and others are painting...

Gaza withdrawal can be justified; heck, I can find threads from OA where *I* argued in favor of a total separation in Gaza *before* Sharon's plan.

But West Bank withdrawal -- small as it is -- just does not fit. It is no accident that Krauthammer and the rest did not comment on it: they can see no purpose, well -- because there is none.

Which means that it, likely, has come from outside of Israel (Bush/Rice Islamization efforts).
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#44
I think we are forgetting that it is the Jews of Israel that have to occupy Gaza,not us. They have decided as a nation it is a wrong headed policy because they have paid the price,we haven't.

It is in fact wrong headed,how can anyone support Israel using their Army to protect Israelis NOT LIVING in Israel??? Gaza is not some open land migrants slowly moved into,it has always been a heavily populated small area,this entire settlement policy there was insanity. Look in your Bibles men,Gaza was "Philistine region" in all your Biblical maps.

Gaza was never Israel,not in Biblical days,not since Biblical days.

It would be like the US sending Americans to settle in Mexico City and using our Army to protect them from pissed off Mexicans. How many dead soldiers you want protecting the hand full of fanatics before you decide your son has better things to do????

The west bank settlements would have made sense if Jewish mothers had more babies than Arabs,but they don't. Thus,the Arabs are increasing there,the Jews are withering and eventually they will have to leave those settlements as well. You cannot have a settlement policy when the other side has more children,not for long you can't,it don't work that way.

If I ran Israel,I would annex X % of the west bank to Israel for security reasons,I would deport from there any non Jew and be done with this ridiculous policy of settling Israeli citizens outside of Israel when demographics are as they are.

I'm not saying this would bring peace,that's not ever going to happen permanently for Jews on earth anywhere at any time, but it would rationalize their foreign affairs and borders. Look at their west bank settlements,they are spread out everywhere which I think is a burden on the IDF. Consolidate and forget the settlement policy Begin started,it never made sense.
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#45
I agree. I still don't see any outside influence in the matter.
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#46
Long term ,without population growth above those of the neighboring Arabs,Israel's West Bank settlements will fall demographically anyway.
That stands to reason. We know Israel doesn't have the cajones to remove the Arab population,we know they aren't having kids like the Arabs,so WHAT is the rationale of any settlements in the West Bank at all?

Over time you get inundated with Arabs fellows,there's not much else that can happen. Some Muslim Imam hit the nail on the head when he said our women's wombs will defeat the infidels.

Anyway,Israel is not acting based on US pressure,the majority of Israelis agree Gaza should be evacuated. The government there like here could never do something as significant as removing Jewish settlements without the majority approves.

It may be Bush is pressuring them to do so,but they won't do it without majority approval.
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#47
mv Wrote:
WmLambert Wrote:How does the small withdrawal from a portion of the West Bank prove that Sharon is not in charge and instead, following events imposed on him?

Because it absolutely does not fit into the picture Krauthammer and others are painting...

mv,

Again we differ. Here's how it fits.

Quote: Sharon's withdrawal policy from Gaza is thus a critical first step of turning the struggle from an asymmetrical war of terror back into a conventional standoff between delineated sovereign states. And that can only help a militarily superior Israel.

Sure there will still be crap thrown both ways over the wall, but the nature of the conflict is probably going to change from a suicide mule blowing up a market or bus followed by tanks rumbling into refugee camps or heading off to secure some far flung settlement into a high tech vs low tech missle duel.

Taking the terrorism "look" away from the conflict can only benefit Israel and start making this look more like a proxy war instead of a "human struggle". Without some massive influx of external "international community" support it is likely to become an increasing embarrassment for the PA and their Arab supporters. How exactly do you craft an honest argument for expanding a 'National' model that breeds only chaos and poverty? It's possible to prosper under such circumstances but prosperity is not possible without some massive internal changes and external aid that does not involve rockets and explosives. It will be a long wait because the potential white knights are probably going to be dissuaded from taking on new projects in the near term. An unfortunate byproduct of the Iraq experience and the extended BS of the "international community".
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#48
Palladin Wrote:We know Israel doesn't have the cajones to remove the Arab population,we know they aren't having kids like the Arabs,so
Any stage of disengagement should have been paired with such a removal step, either unilateral or by force.

Quote:WHAT is the rationale of any settlements in the West Bank at all?
1. Protect access to the central part of the country which is fairly narrow.

A couple of demographic arguments since you brought in demography.

2. Limit the amount of land available to Pals which would limit their population growth.
3. Increase the Israeli population (birth rate is much higher in the settlements).

Quote:Sure there will still be crap thrown both ways over the wall, but the nature of the conflict is probably going to change from a suicide mule blowing up a market or bus followed by tanks rumbling into refugee camps or heading off to secure some far flung settlement into a high tech vs low tech missle duel.

There is no reasons to think that the Israelis will be able to fully stop suicide attacks; and the crap thrown over the wall is not a negligibale threat either: how long do you think it will take Pals to start playing with chem or bio payloads?

Quote:Without some massive influx of external "international community" support it is likely to become an increasing embarrassment for the PA and their Arab supporters. How exactly do you craft an honest argument for expanding a 'National' model that breeds only chaos and poverty?

Don't underestimate the ability and desire of the internation community to dump money into this cause. Pals will not be starving the way people of Sudan or Zimbabve are.

However, there is a silver lining. Left alone, it would not be long before Gaza becomes the staging ground of attacks on some Arab countries and perhaps Europe as well.

----

Anyway, the two more immediate questions are:

1. How long before a full-scale terrorist offensive? (1m -- 3m -- 6m -- 1y)?
2. What would be the Israeli response?

Any opinions?
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#49
Sure, I'll try...

As smart as Sharon is with his strategic thinking, he knows he can trade missiles and other high-tech measures 100-1 against the Palestinians, and come out ahead. If there is a major military attack by this new Palestinian entity, he therefore has the luxury of playing the victim - and this time getting the PC reaction that the Palestinians always manipulated for themselves.

If the Palestinians start throwing missiles into Israel, then Israel can answer back with a measured retaliatory strike at where the missiles came from, while whatever Patriot-type defenses try to stave off damage. At this time - Sharon can actually appeal to the UN (believe it or not) as the victim. Interesting time for Bolton ahead.
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#50
so Israel leaving the Gaza Strip seens to be a snaqtch and grab situation. as the IDF are clearing Jewish settlers they are also taking part in an operation to rid itself of some nefarious garbage associated with Palestine.

a UN cronological ordering of the recent events take place as headlines snapped from leading News media.

the following occur under the heading " Israel's disengagement from the Gaza Strip has begun. (15 August)"

Quote:Israeli paratroopers uncovered a cache of pipe bombs and materials used to produce explosive devices in Hebron.

Quote:Israeli soldiers uncovered a tunnel into the "Gush Katif" settlement block, dug by Islamic Jihad operatives to carry out suicide attacks against the "Neve Dekalim" settlement. (Ha'aretz, The Jerusalem Post)

Quote:Yasser Ashkar, a six-year old Palestinian boy, was killed, and nine Palestinians wounded in Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip, when rockets fired by Palestinian militants misfired and landed on Palestinian areas, rescue workers said. Witnesses said militants fired three rockets at Sderot, where thousands of opponents of the disengagement had gathered in a demonstration. Two of the rockets fell in Palestinian areas and the third fell in an open field near Sderot. Hamas and Saraya al-Quds, the armed wing of Islamic Jihad, denied responsibility for the attack. (AP, Ha'aretz, Xinhua)

so it isnt just an evacuation. you use the vacuum to a military advantage and allow "official" Palestinian Forces to occupy the retreating combat zones.

they can do as much damage as they can, hit the targets they know for sure exist, and eradicate a portion of the groups responsible for terror, all under the guise of withdraw.

Quote:Mosallam Al-Najjar, who was affiliated with Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, died, and five other Palestinians were wounded in an explosion at his house in the town of Bani Suheila in the Gaza Strip. (IPC)

brilliant.
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#51
Donno if this was an ebb or a flow, but another Arafat is gone:

From
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArti...ARAFAT.xml

Quote:Gaza gunmen kill former security chief -police.

GAZA (Reuters) - Gunmen shot dead former Palestinian security chief Moussa Arafat, a cousin to late leader Yasser Arafat, in Gaza City on Wednesday, police and medics said.

The killing marked another sign of the factional turmoil in the occupied territory, from which Israeli troops are due to withdraw this month following the evacuation of settlers.

Democracy is emerging...
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#52
mv Wrote:Democracy is emerging...

ROFL.

As our senior politicians and the world community would have us believe. Wink1

I am wondering when Fatah will unleash the security forces on Hamas and other groups.

I wonder what Israel is thinking....I can only imagine them sitting up on the wall watching chaos reign supreme while the world community applauds the pullout and how everything's great and smells like roses and cinnamin buns.
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#53
more details: from BBC

Quote:Witnesses said that dozens of gunmen stormed his home before dawn, but it is still unclear who the attackers were.

Rocket-propelled grenades were shot at his house in Gaza City, before the gunmen entered.

While it is unclear who the attackers were, I'd say: let them...

Debka Wrote:According to some reports the gang abducted his son. The assassination of one of Gaza’s strongmen marks the onset of the Gaza Strip's armed contest for power between the Palestinian Authority, Hamas and the Popular Committees, which were part of Arafat’s power base. Reprisals are expected.

Reprisals are good for democracy; let them fight this out, to the last pal ... oops to the last terrorist....
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#54
When one terror group reigns surpreme, we have a terror state....right next to Israel.....
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#55
Gunnen4u Wrote:When one terror group reigns surpreme, we have a terror state....right next to Israel.....

Balance of terror: new US strategy.

Since we are concerned about a possibility of a Shia islamist/terrorist state in Iraq, we let the Sunnis score some victories to balance them out. This is why Zarkawi has his ministate...

Perhaps, Gaza can achieve the democratic balance with PLO and Hamas killing each other....
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#56
I see.

While this "democratic balance" is working itself out, I hope Israel is on guard to keep it from spilling over into their side of the wall.

Or will the two parties be too busy killing each other to achieve balance to think about Israel?
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#57
Gunnen4u Wrote:Or will the two parties be too busy killing each other to achieve balance to think about Israel?

Who knows, but the game of balance is not a joke: it is actually the cornerstone of our policy for long time and -- philosophically -- is an extension of the British policy in Europe since 16th century.

The Iraq-Iran war was the first version of balance in the M.E., and it kept both being preoccupied with mutual killing and -- nicely -- a need to export as much oil as possible to keep this meatgrinder oiled.

I think we are trying to set up a bigger Shia-Sunni balancing act confrontation, but a few smaller balances would spice it nicely. In Iraq, balance is the only way to keep a US-friendly government, and a political balance may be possible; In Gaza, it has to be a balance of murder. Given that Gaza will remain overpopulated and poor, such a balance is entirely achievable. And if the mutual hate in Gaza rises, perhaps PLO and Hamas will decide to use SB's against each other first...
S2
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#58
What a game of chess we play.

Now, Gaza (for now) is poor, but what if the Israelis let them in to work and money flows in?

Doing so (under pressure from some Euro-Ninnies and stuff) would eventually allow money to flow to one group, giving them the funds to kill the other off totally, and this 'balance' is lost; SB's then go after Jews again.

So, Israel cutting off Gaza helps this balance, and that is why (or at least a reason why) they are doing so... S2

Mabye we can totally turn over this 'encouraging balance' job over to the Israelis someday.
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#59
Quote:Now, Gaza (for now) is poor, but what if the Israelis let them in to work and money flows in?

The stated policy is to cut off all such work totally (by 2007, I believe); I think the Israelis will stick to this, regardless of which party forms the next gov.

Observe that the use of palestinian labor is the Israeli form of slavery -- not that different from the European islamic immigration or the American mexican illegals. If slave labor is absolutely essential, it would be smarter to get someone else to fill the slots...there are a plenty of countries willing to export labor and not all Islamic.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#60
And which of their close neighbors would that be? Lebanon?
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