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Great Depression of 2020
#1
Morgan-Stanley Composite 

[Image: 2019-06-14_6-46-12%5B1%5D.jpg]

Briefly:

Worst fall of the index ever in the last month, beating the Recession of 2008.
Current Index value is the 2nd worst ever.
All components of the index are down, except for the availability of money 
  (Translation: easy money do not help).

Another month in this direction and hello, President Sanders! 
(Or hello, WAR! .. Or hello, BOTH)

===

On an offtopic: there is another seemingly decent guy in the running,  one Mike Gravel.  A very long shot, obviously, but perhaps sending him a bit  of cash cannot hurt?
Anybody knows anything about him? --- I only go by what he said today, plus Googling did not reveal anything incriminating.....
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#2
Great time to purchase real estate, however, you must wait until you're about eighteen months into the recession. This is when property owners begin to get desperate.

Go to your library and get a copy of your city's official Plan, then purchase vacant land as close as possible to the official plan. It's important the vacant land be outside the current official plan because it isn't worth very much.

The official plan is usually updated every ten years. I know two guys who purchased ten-acres of vacant agricultural land just outside the Offical Plan in 1991 at $2500 per acre. Today it is worth close to $1.5 million because it is now located within the official plan.

If you can afford it hire an urban planner to draw up and apply for a plan of subdivision, now it has doubled in value.

Municipal taxes on vacant agricultural land is very low, most investors lease vacant land to farmers to cover that expense. Another advantage of farming the land is that it keeps it free of scrub. 

There is a 50-acre site within the urban boundary where I live that hasn`t been farmed in over thirty years, today it is covered with trees and scrub. Land developers are not stupid, they will factor in the cost of cleaning up the land on any offer to purchase.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
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#3
Generally true, and a good advice, but not for me :S4

New York... you cannot buy anything on the cheap.  And the dynamic may be different too... residential real estate in NY depends on Chinese, just like office space in the 1980s depended on the Japanese...  it is not clear that the Chinese would continue massive investments with the current situation, then the prices will drop indeed and don't recover for years.
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#4
(06-14-2019, 08:30 PM)mv Wrote: Generally true, and a good advice, but not for me :S4

New York... you cannot buy anything on the cheap.  And the dynamic may be different too... residential real estate in NY depends on Chinese, just like office space in the 1980s depended on the Japanese...  it is not clear that the Chinese would continue massive investments with the current situation, then the prices will drop indeed and don't recover for years.

I suspect he was not referring to that Horrible Pest Hole where you live. There are many other places, besides New Yawk where people have their heads on straight. Spiteful
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
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#5
Purchasing vacant land is probably the safest investment anyone can make; low taxes, no need to chase after tenants for rent, etc. Buy it and forget about it for 25 to 30 years.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
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#6
Here's perhaps the best indicator of future economic downturn for the following year, which is an election year.  Its not an absolute predictor of a recession, but is indicative of a likely one.

Quote:"In The U.S., A Transportation Recession Has Already Officially Arrived"

"A transportation recession often precedes a recession for the entire economy, and while the debate about when the U.S. economy as a whole will plunge into a recession is quite vigorous right now, the truth is that the debate is over regarding when a transportation recession will begin. Throughout 2017 and most of 2018, U.S. freight shipment volume was booming, and that was a very strong sign that overall economic activity was rising. But when economic activity begins to decline, freight shipment volume often goes negative, and that is precisely what is happening right now. In fact, U.S. freight shipment volume has now declined on a year over year basis for eight months in a row:

"Freight shipments within the US by all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – fell 5.9% in July 2019, compared to July 2018, the eighth month in a row of year-over-year declines, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments, which tracks shipments of consumer and industrial goods but not of bulk commodities such as grains. This decline along with the 6.0% drop in May were the steepest year-over-year declines in freight shipments since the Financial Crisis."

I wonder which financial crisis he is referring to?  Oh, it must be this one he is thinking about.  We aren't doing as well this year as last year, but are still ahead of 2016, and 2017.

[Image: US-Cass-freight-index-shipments-2019-07.png]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
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