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Trump's Trade War Defeat
#41
First of all, Trump-o-Utang never intended to make a war nor did he expect one. He just thought that China, out of panick, would naturally lower tariffs and restrictions for US goods and beg a fair deal.
The extreme opposite happened and a war was declared by the collumnists.

Problem is not all chinese exports goes to the US but most of US imports come from China.
Huh!? Isn't it? There is like a problem for the Orang.

And as mv explained, China is a bigger economy. Not in official dollars, but in production capacity.
China owns the tangible assets whereas the US holds mostly papers, most of which are illiquid.

It's not like the US doesn't produce anything or that China doesn't want anything from the US. But China became the supply source for the US industry and US consumers too. And the US doesn't have the capability (even if it has the capacity) to shift from chinese imports to local production.
It would require huge investments which would not be always profitable and always very risky.

The outcome is more likely that US consumers will spend less and the US industry produce less by lack of cheap supplies.

You get, say, $50B in tariffs' revenues but it takes you a $100B in investments to produce the same things in the US with the risk that Chinese goods will still be cheaper and of higher quality anyway.
It's just money in the wind.

The second thing why Trump is wrong: Made-In-China is growing more expensive everyday.
The time when you could purchase big quantities at less than $1/pcs are over. Often the shipping cost already offsets the cheaper price even before any tariff is applied.
And you don't discuss the price down with them.
Stuffs are cheap when they decided to dump them. Old stocks, storage need to be freed, client cancelling a big order, whatever. But unless you can catch the bargains, you pay a fair price.

It means that with time, the imbalance with China should regress gradualy. Wanting to force it is not usefull.

mv Wrote:The answer is obvious: Trump effected a huge tax increase, perhaps the largest tax increase in the history of the US!

I don't believe in miracles. If a politician promise less taxes, there must be some snake under a rock somewhere.
Trump cut corporate taxes, profiting to whealthy people (who else own the companies), then taxed US consumers especialy those who purchase cheap products from China and can't afford more expensive local equivalents.

But you will re-elect him in 2020 nonetheless. S6
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#42
Largely accurate.

However,

Quote:He just thought that China, out of panick, would naturally lower tariffs and restrictions for US goods and beg a fair deal.

is not. Unlike the EU, China did not use tariffs before the "war", there was nothing to lower. And "Fair deal" is a physical impossibility.,,, but let us look more carefully.

To balance the trade US must sell more to China or buy less from China.

Buying less is not an option, unless the US wants to stop using cell phones, computers, and effectively every item households use .. and buying these items from say S. Korea would not change things much, even if it were possible.

Thus : sell more to China.

What can the US offer?

Agricultural products: China was buying a lot of those already, would have been willing to buy more, but there is a limit to how much the Chinese can eat. No good.

Military hardware: LOL. China would be willing to buy samples of US hardware, perhaps .... to reverse engineer.

Airplanes : yes, China was buying them already, as many as they need.

Oil, LNG : if the US can offer these at competitive prices, China would surely buy. But US oil revolution is akin to the global warming ...

This is pretty much it! Very little comparing to what China can offer.

Then, what was Trump hoping for? Two possibilities : he is even more stupid than he seems to be OR he meant non-material items. These would include:

1. Massive increase in Chinese buying of US treasuries.
2. Chinese buying US financial services (big part of the US' economy).
3. Chinese buying more of US IP --- movies, music, software.......

In fact, I suspect it is indeed 1+2+3 that he wanted from China (and was too shy to say.) Well, not impossible! China might have been willing to spend some more in these categories indeed, provided that doing this would buy them sufficient time to deploy new military hardware and stop the US from unleashing WWIII now.
(right now US may be capable of winning a war against China -- if China stands alone. In ten years -- not a chance.)

and what has happened likely is this : Trump's gambit could work but failed, instead of 1+2+3 China banned US agricultural products. Trump went into escalation, with goals no longer visible. Heck, this is how real wars start too ....

Dumb ape.
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#43
You two are both wrong in some ways, but I'm not going to argue with you on this.  Its not worth the time.

I'll just say one thing: Trump is not a "Dumb Ape".  Give me a break.  He's just an Asshole New Yawker.

Look, I personally don't like the man.  He's a F-cking New Yawker, and New Yawkers are the Pits.  And you MV, teaching up there should already know this. How in Hell you can even exist up there is totally beyond me.  That's the main problem here.  But fortunately, he has some common sense, which you two are unwilling to acknowledge.   Aww
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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#44
"Dumb Ape", "Asshole New Yawker" -- distinction, not a difference.

"Dumb Ape" was said with love, anyway.
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#45
Any (Asshole New Yawker)'s latest success in punishing evil Chicoms:

GM slashing up to 14,000 jobs in North America
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#46
(11-26-2018, 02:05 PM)mv Wrote: Any (Asshole New Yawker)'s latest success in punishing evil Chicoms:  

GM slashing up to 14,000 jobs in North America

I have been stating for several decades now that the real culprit here is the Union Leadership in many different unions.  They have been pricing themselves out of a job, and now the IT revolution is creating computers, and robots that can do the work of any union worker AND save lots of money.  Sorry, but it is something that will only get bigger.

However, for every job lost, there are several that are being created.  The only problem is that they start out paying less than union jobs.  But they have unlimited potential.  Its how the Universe really Works, and the more the US automates, the more efficient it becomes.  If the Mid-West and North-East states don't get their acts together, there will be more loss of revenues and rise of ghost towns as new jobs are opening in the EVIL, COST CUTTING, UNCARING, GOOD-FOR-NOTHING South and South-West states.  

"Right to Work States" are the main states that will allow unions to survive in the coming IT Revolution.  "Closed Union Shops" are going to be sucking Hind-Tit because there is no Liberty of Choice there.  It's all about "How the World Works", and it ain't gonna change.  Spiteful
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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#47
Without a doubt unions are a factor (albeit minor) and robots are progress, spiting them is like spitting against the wind....

BUT:

MAGA is supposed to bring works to American workers, not American robots? And do we at least know that the jobs that American workers lose will
go to American robots, not some low voltage Mexican robots?

We don't.

Thus, Trump' reaction : Trump lashes out at GM is not a surprise.
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#48
(11-26-2018, 09:43 PM)mv Wrote: Without a doubt unions are a factor (albeit minor) and robots are progress, spiting them is like spitting against the wind....

BUT:

MAGA is supposed to bring works to American workers, not American robots? And do we at least know that the jobs that American workers lose will
go to American robots, not some low voltage Mexican robots?

We don't.

Thus, Trump' reaction : Trump lashes out at GM is not a surprise.

Someone has to design the robotics, then build the robots, program the software that operates the robots, install and then repair the robots, all high paying jobs. I'm sure 100 years ago carriage makers and the operators of livery stables were just as pissed off as the GM workers are when their jobs were phased out.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
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#49
Exactly how this will play out would be really interesting to see, and detailed predictions are just not possible now.

What is certain is that the number of new jobs will be considerably fewer than the number of lost jobs -- otherwise going with robots makes little sense! --- and some of these jobs will not be in the US -- China will be building the robots.

Of course, there will be retraining and new jobs. I saw an article about the effects of robots a couple of months ago.. it suggested that new technology creates new jobs, unthinkable before, and as an example suggested the job of blog moderator. So, perhaps we shall see all the autoworkers happily moderating each other's blogs before long.

The point, however, is not this... The expectation from MAGA is more hiring in the US, not more firing. And I have a nasty suspicion that the states where industrial workers may be losing their jobs overlap with the states that gave Trump the 2016 victory. Perhaps, this is why he is not all that happy with GM.
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#50
(11-27-2018, 01:42 AM)mv Wrote: Exactly how this will play out would be really interesting to see, and detailed predictions are just not possible now.

What is certain  is that the number of new jobs will be considerably fewer than the number of lost jobs -- otherwise going with robots makes little sense! --- and some of these jobs will not be in the US -- China will be building the robots.  

Of course, there will be retraining and new jobs. I saw an article about the effects of robots a  couple of months ago..  it suggested that new technology creates new jobs, unthinkable before, and as an example suggested the job of blog moderator.  So, perhaps we shall see all the autoworkers happily moderating each other's blogs before long.

The point, however, is not this...  The expectation from MAGA is more hiring in the US, not more firing. And I have a nasty suspicion that the states where industrial workers may be losing their jobs overlap with the states that gave Trump the 2016 victory.  Perhaps, this is why he is not all that happy with GM.

GM's socialist union leaders have always supported the Democrats in the US and Liberals in Canada.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
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#51
This is all more philosophical than anything else.

Progress for humanity is not the hallmark of so-called "Progressivism." Since the beginning of history, technology has moved exponentially forward, with the end result being benefits for Mankind. The "Buggy-whip" fallacy has proved its counterpart: spin-off growth grows faster than dead-end stultifying lifestyles. The inertia of familiarity gives way to successful future growth.
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#52
Robots, philosophy of progress -- all yes.

However, upon looking more carefully -- this may not be about robots and progress at all. Simply, GM is in trouble again, and the cause is their policies during the Obama years -- huge amounts of money went into stock buyback while the debt accumulated. GE seems to be in the same boat and perhaps worse.
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#53
(11-28-2018, 12:06 PM)mv Wrote: Robots, philosophy of progress -- all yes.

However, upon looking more carefully -- this may not be about robots and progress at all. Simply, GM is in trouble again, and the cause is their policies during the Obama years -- huge amounts of money went into stock buyback while the debt accumulated.  GE seems to be in the same boat and perhaps worse.

I have a really sour taste in my mouth when considering what Obama did with GM.

Does everyone forget that Obama closed most GM dealerships, and allowed only those who were his donors to survive? On top of that, he also destroyed second and third-tier suppliers. He also stole shares of the company and gave them to his cronies in the unions. Since unions are now management, who do they strike against? ...Fascists!
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#54
And let's not forget all of the Obama subsidies that helped GM stay in business. The Donald is threatening to take those subsidies away, and that is the main reason why the "involved and interested parties" are screaming bloody murder, MacDaddy leading the pack. Not only did BHO get lots of shares, but so did his fellow cronies, and you can tell which ones, by singling out those who are screaming loudest.

Being a businessman first and foremost, Trump is doing what successful businessmen do: cutting back on the bloating and inefficiency. This is why there should perhaps be a Constitutional Amendment decreeing that every fifth president must be a successful business owner. After all, they know best how to cut through all the waste their predecessors piled up on the system. S22
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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#55
Finally someone calls Trump progressive!

Quote:Alan Greenspan:

“We’re moving into a state of stagflation which we haven’t seen in this country for quite a while. It’s slow. It’s progressive, but if you look at productivity, which is the key statistic in the economic outlook for the United States, we’re not doing all that well. Indeed, since the 2008 crisis our productivity growth rate has been averaging something like 1.25% annually. In the heyday of American expansion earlier in the post WWII period, we were up to 3%. So, this is a very extraordinarily subdued economy… It’s not something that’s going to go away… This economy is not accelerating by any means…”
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#56
When Obama saved GM, GM was kaput. A few weeks more and the brand would be history. The governement didn't lose money in the operation. Sacking the old dealership which was responsible for the bankrupcy was the normal thing to do. But the truth is not important.
Trump is doing the same or worse but what is important is that he is undoing Obama's legacy. (observing a minute of silent prayer).

mv Wrote:This economy is not accelerating by any means…
The economy has been excellent lately. But Trump managed to stop it. Wall Street has been selling off for over a month now. This is the first sign of a recession. The big money knows that the Clown is not done yet messing up.

JL Wrote:very fifth president must be a successful business owner.
Trump is not that a successful manager. He lost massively in some poorly managed operations. Was bailed out. Now he owns only one fifth of what he pretends to own, mostly inherted.

Now he is squandering taxpayer money and inflating the sovereign debt insanely.
But... We all ought venerate him because he's undoing Obama's legacy. Respect your new religion.
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#57
Photo 
Good news for Trump: he just won the war in Syria !

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politic...newsletter

Or so he declared.

Twitted, I assume ?

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PS> These are horrible news for Erdogan.. he will get very very tired killing all the Kurds abandoned in NE Syria.

PPS> Yes, twitted:



[Image: bez_imeni-234.jpg]
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#58
(12-19-2018, 12:56 PM)mv Wrote: Good news for Trump: he just won the war in Syria !

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politic...newsletter

Or so he declared.

Twitted, I assume ?

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PS> These are horrible news for Erdogan.. he will get very very tired killing all the Kurds abandoned in NE Syria.

PPS> Yes, twitted:



[Image: bez_imeni-234.jpg]

A more likely scenario is the US and Turkey have agreed to allow the Turks to assume responsibility to govern these inbreds.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
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#59
Without a doubt, such an agreement was made indeed -- this was one of the Erdogan's demands for stopping pestering MbS.
But it is quite unlikely it offers any protection for the Kurds, so we may see a repeat of Afrin, on a large scale: ethnic cleansing of mixed areas and some Kurdish areas as well. At the end of this phase we may see the Turks occupying a 10-50 mile wide strip on the Syrian side of the border, Kurds running for their lives to probably Iraq, and the southern part of the US-occupied zone falling to an Arab rebellion, supported by Assad. And the Turks buy a bunch of US airplanes which improves the Trump's bottom line.... ironically using Saudi ransom money for this. Would not be too surprised to hear screams from the Kurds about Assad failing to protect Syrian territorial integrity (meaning: protect them).

Well.. we should see.
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#60
Many comments on the Trump decision on Syria here:
  https://twitter.com/search?q=kurds&src=typd

And, if I am reading the news correctly, Trump now said that the war in Afghanistan is half-won, so he is bringing half troops home?

(This is the strangest news I've seen lately.   Taliban controls 2/3 of the country now and on the path of limiting the invader-occupied zone to Kabul in 2019.  Doubling the troops make some sense, withdrawing them all makes more sense, but withdrawing half?  Just to make the Talib's work easier? )

Is this why Mattis resigned, perhaps?

This is kinda bad, actually ... he was one of the saner ones. Welcome to the Bolton's Reign. S6
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