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Russia, and why they are the way they are
#1
I've stated many times that Russia is a classic case of ethnic paranoia.  They are the way they are because of several things.  But the most important is this: Location, Location, Location. They are in the worst possible geographical location.  There are only three real exits to the seas: Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic Sea.  That's it.  And only the later is under their control,...........somewhat, part of the time.  Nature is in charge of the majority of the time.  And in the future, with the up coming Grand Solar Minimum, this will only get worse for them.  So they are naturally paranoid about the world.  

Here's what I mean.

A global intelligence analyst explains why Russia isn't as strong as people think




Again, Russia's problem is geographical.  In other words, Location, location, location. Russia is dependent on others in the long run, and that is why they are weaker than one thinks.  If you study the geography closely, all this becomes readily apparent.  In fact this little video does an excellent job of showing Russia's principal weakness.  The video looks a little cheezy at first, but it covers almost all the bases, and is well worth studying.

Russia's Geography Problem




Russia has always been in a geographical bind, and this is not going to change. Like it or not, they are dependent upon others for their economic and territorial security.  

But the REAL Problem is not the West.  Its China.  All PRC has to do is move north, and cut off Siberia and Russia has lost the majority of its natural resources.  In other words, its entirely vulnerable.  And it is China that is the greatest threat, both strategically and tactically.  THAT is their Real enemy.  And don't think that they don't know it. And as long as PRC is hanging over their heads, they will always have to be aware of their back door.

This is something my Russian Hostory professor taught my Dad and I, while we were stationed in Europe. Almost no body in the US is aware of its vulnerabilities.  But they are Huge and forever in the mind of Russians, who have been invaded on a regular basis, and no way to control their own destiny economically.

Remember this, when you think of Russia.  They are highly vulnerable.
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#2
Few comments:

1. For geopolitical situation of Russia best see good old George Friedman, simply a more credible work than a hearsay of an unnamed " Hostory (sic) professor".

2. Friedman's thesis has historical value but is not applicable today, modern warfare is a not clash of huge land armies, technology is different and so are vulnerabilities.

3. Paranoia : psychiatric term, Friedman referred only to needs to address real vulnerabilities.  Paranoia comes up more often with perceived needs to address perceived vulnerabilities, it is a phenomenon that largely occurs in societies that contain excessive amounts of psychiatrically deficient population.  Examples of paranoia include the 1941 scares of a Japanese invasion (see "1941", the movie), or the modern day hysteria about "Russian election meddling" or the most recent hysteria about a nervous agent "WMD" that is spread by being placed on doorknobs and does not kill anyone ... 

4. As for China : rather than imagining things, check very carefully the newsfeed on China for the last week or so.  There were several items of tremendous importance, most likely underreported by the Entity-controlled media, so some searching is probably needed. I'll give you a hint : as the world's attention was focused on the Ankara meeting, in the Putin's absence the Chinese military leadership was in Moscow.
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#3
(04-05-2018, 03:25 PM)mv Wrote: 4. As for China : rather than imagining things, check very carefully the newsfeed on China for the last week or so.  There were several items of tremendous importance, most likely underreported by the Entity-controlled media, so some searching is probably needed. I'll give you a hint : as the world's attention was focused on the Ankara meeting, in the Putin's absence the Chinese military leadership was in Moscow.

Hmm, I seem to remember that Russia and Germany agreed to a Non-Aggression Pact in 1939, and promised to leave each other alone for ten years. They even exchanged military liaisons, and even split territory conquered.  So, what happened?

My point is that either side is using the other for the betterment of each country.  When that wears thin, I wonder which one will attack first?  My money is on China.

I tend to think 'Strategy', and not 'Tactics'.  Tactically they are allies.  Strategically PRC is Russia's greatest danger.  If you don't believe it, help yourself.  

Both entities had a little live war game back in the late 60s I believe.  At that time the West had no idea of it happening.  The next time it will not be so localized, or controlled.
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#4
Quote:Hmm, I seem to remember that Russia and Germany agreed to a Non-Aggression Pact in 1939, and promised to leave each other alone for ten years.  They even exchanged military liaisons, and even split territory conquered.   So, what happened?

The analogy is totally faulty.  

Let's remember that the Reich was an anglo-american creation aimed at USSR.   Just like similar brilliant ideas of the same minds in modern era (Al Queda, ISIS) it eventually got out of control and started pursuing its own aims; but in 1939 signing the non-Aggression treaty was a wise move that prevented a planned joint attack of the UK and the Nazis on USSR, planned at the time.  It worked as well as it could.


China is very different.   To begin with, it does not start aggressive wars -- simply not their way, for something like five thousand years now.  In fact, very few countries start aggressive wars...  per my deeply respected Kedmi -- I think there were more, one such entity started eleven aggressive wars under its last six rulers (aka presidents) which resulted in no democracies (stated goal) but death, destruction, and dictatorships. 

How many aggressive wars were started by China or for that matter by Russia?

Quote:My point is that either side is using the other for the betterment of each country.  When that wears thin, I wonder which one will attack first?  My money is on China. 

Sweet dreams S6

For the foreseeable future both countries share a major common goal : saving the Humanity from the Entity.

And -- if you look carefully just what has been happening in the last few days -- you would realize it is not any kind of non-aggression pact but rather very extensive military cooperation against the common enemy.   This is going to last a long time, if we count the decades needed to rehabilitate the former Entity lands... and just what may happen well beyond our lifespan is pointless to speculate about now ... I'd suspect a joint trip to Mars. 

For the time being both countries need each other; one has the capacity to destroy the Entity but not occupy it, the other is the exact opposite. They are bound to work together.
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#5
PS. Here is a bit on the meeting from a US source. Naturally, all the really interesting details were omitted, but this gives an idea of where things are going.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-militar...27016.html
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#6
Interesting that I should happen to find this little gem, in light of comments about China's encroachment into Russia.

31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China

Quote:- Russia's Far East under growing threat from Chinese settlers and tourists
- Russians increasingly fear losing Lake Baikal to China - and to garbage
- Popular pressure grows in China to 'reclaim' Vladivostok (Haishenwai) from Russia

I'm not sure that the Russians hate the Chinese to the extent mentioned above.  But its for certain they do not trust them, and are fed up with hordes of Chinese moving north and physically taking over land that is officially Russia.  And China is not about to halt these encroachments, because their aim it Siberia and its huge resources.

This is nothing more than a ticking time-bomb.

CHINESE IN THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST: A GEOPOLITICAL TIME BOMB? Joint investment between Moscow and Beijing may be a win-win on paper but, as experience in the Russian Far East shows, it can also fuel resentment regarding China’s presence

Analysis: Russia's Far East Turning Chinese

WHEN SIBERIA WILL BE CHINESE


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#7
An imaginary issue here, goes nicely with similar predictions of breakup of China.


More accurate picture is here.

to summarize: Chinese migration was never large, mostly consisted of small businessman (quite beneficial for the area), is on the decrease, and there is a Russian migration to China as well! 

Long-term, the area will definitely benefit from additional population, especially if these are people willing to settle and work on land.  This likely will come from the European migration rather than Chinese, there is some already, it will obviously accelerate as the Europe falls apart/becomes more Islamic, and there are economic policies already in place to help it.  Things like free farming land, for instance... reminiscent of the Western USA in the 19th century. So we will see some German farms with Chinese workers down the road. Germans assimilate well.

Basically, nothing of interest here for the time being.
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#8
Suit yourself. Trying to argue strategy with a tactical person is not worth the time.
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#9
Oh, but you know nothing about strategy S4

Beginning with the most basic part of it : one needs to state the goal first. If it is preservation of the Entity by trying to create a discord between the winners, then I'm just not interested. This is what the US has been trying for more than a decade already, and failed like it fails with everything else it does. Besides, this simply copies uncle Adolf thinking in the bunker: that there will be a split between the allies, that Army Group Wenck is about to come to the rescue.

This is a parody on tactics at best and none of this is happening.

The humanity is about to close the ugliest phenomenon in its entire history and return to normalcy.  Small problems will get solved down the road. Big problems will come up in the future, but we do not know what they are.

And meanwhile, on to the stars ! S6
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#10
I know some Polish people who hate Russians. Some of them like to say they pray for the Chinese army to invade Poland three times. The reason? In order to invade Poland three times, the Chinese army would have to cross Russia six times!

Actually, I know some Russians, and they are decent people. One is the head elder of the church I am attending. They likely came to America to get away from Putin's Russian.
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#11
Well, its now Official. The honeymoon is over..............or whatever.

Kremlin aide: Russia’s centuries-long romance with West over

Quote:MOSCOW (AP) — Russia has abandoned its centuries-long aspirations of integrating into the West and is bracing for a new era of “geopolitical loneliness,” a top adviser to President Vladimir Putin warned in a magazine article released Monday.

Vladislav Surkov wrote in the piece for Russia in Global Affairs that “Russia’s epic journey toward the West” is over, marking an end to its “repeated vain attempts to become part of Western civilization” over four centuries.

Surkov’s article echoes statements from Putin. The Russian leader sought to forge close ties with the West after his first election in 2000, but later grew increasingly critical of the United States and its NATO allies. He accuses them of shunning Moscow’s offers of cooperation and trying to sideline and weaken his country.

Does this mean that they are now going to be shoring up their Siberian territory, and halting the Chinese encroachment that will eventually lead to the loss of their land? Stay tuned. S5
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#12
No, it means deepened cooperation in Eurasia and reallocation of assets (investment and trade) eastward -- something that is happening already and will accelerate.
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#13
(04-10-2018, 09:49 AM)mv Wrote: No, it means deepened cooperation in Eurasia and reallocation of assets (investment and trade) eastward -- something that is happening already and will accelerate.

Yeah, right.  As long as PRC can get what it wants, free of charge, it will continue doing so without military invasion.  But do not for one minute think they don't have plans for Siberia.

Incidentally, I presume you are still traveling between Queens and Harlem at least five days a week, correct? If we do have a nuclear exchange, guess which location will be the second worst place to inhabit. Shock
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#14
Entirely incorrect, but this is not relevant.


Rather than worry about Siberia, consider a far more likely perspective surviving the events and being considered for a reeducation camp run by Chinese. 
Do you think they will find you sufficiently young and strong to make a good slave ?
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#15
(04-10-2018, 12:39 PM)mv Wrote: Entirely incorrect, but this is not relevant.


Rather than worry about Siberia, consider a far more likely perspective surviving the events and being considered for a reeducation camp run by Chinese. 
Do you think they will find you sufficiently young and strong to make a good slave ?

S3 So, when do you plan on repatriating yourself? Certainly there are many, many, many places that are far better than the pest-hole you currently inhabit. How about Bangkok? You could easily obtain a passport.
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#16
You are again repeating yourself, you asked this very question before -- check the forum.

I'm gone from posting here for a while.

Rationale:  there are lots of interesting subjects right now and I prefer to spend time posting where I get some interesting replies.
It is not at about our disagreement, it is only about you being a bit boring, nothing new, only rehashed nonsense on the subjects you are badly informed about. Please post something new, I'll check the forum toward the end of the year.

Let me make one suggestion: learn Chinese asap! This will greatly increase your chances of finding good accomodations with the new masters,... something like a permanent job interrogating guerillas... beats being in a labor camp. S6


TTYL.
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#17
Meanwhile, moving right along..................... this Russian-American blogger has an interesting article in The American Thinker.  

The Russian Method of State Suicide

Strangely enough, Mr. Gindler is parroting pretty much what I have been saying for years now.   Here are a few paragraphs of the article, which is well worth reading in its entirety.

Quote:It seems that Russia, in its search for a suitable method of collective suicide, has decided to compensate for America's supposed superiority in anti-missile defense systems with an enormously expensive one-sided arms race.

Russia decided to create missiles capable of almost 100% penetration of not just the existing, but also any future missile defense of the United States.  Of course, the Pentagon only shrugged – they know perfectly well about Russia's tiny military budget.  Well, if Russia wants to go bankrupt unilaterally, so be it.  Trump's administration will not interfere.  It will even help.
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The self-destruction of Russia in the form of a one-sided arms race is happening in broad daylight.  Russia never concealed its intentions.  In the West, all this was understood a long time ago.  Western politicians are also not hiding the results of their analysis.  The autocrat Putin is no longer invited to important international forums, and no one among prominent heads of states visits him.  Why should they?  The country under his leadership has become an outcast, and everything Russian has become politically toxic – but, strangely enough, at the same time, a convenient scapegoat.
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Now, a year and a half after the election, it is safe to say that Russia played the same role in the American election of 2016 as it has been playing since the mid-1930s – none.  That is, efforts to destabilize America as the main adversary, of course, are underway.  They were conducted, starting from the time of Stalin, and with the same indispensable result: zero.

Of course, Tsar Putin does not want the destruction of America.  After all, the West is where he and his courtiers keep their billions.  He merely wants to destabilize America and thereby weaken the main oil and gas rival of Russia.
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For many years, Russia has acted thoughtlessly and become vulnerable to various false flag operations.  Without question, it is a self-inflicted wound.  It sounds irrational, but Russia methodically works toward self-destruction on all fronts – internationally, economically, and militarily.

Concurrently, Russia is trying to appeal to the common sense of the world community and to use international judicial procedures.  But the situation into which Russia has driven itself is not legal, but political.  Therefore, rhetorical questions from the Kremlin such as "Where is the evidence?" will not be useful.  After all, this is not a jury trial or a military tribunal; rather, it is international politics, which is apparently poorly taught at the KGB school.

First of all, I disagree with him that Russia is acting thoughtlessly.  As the old saying goes, "Russia is playing chess, while the rest of the world is playing checkers".  However, culturally Russia is acting in a paranoid manner, and its because they ARE culturally paranoid. Russia is in a horrible location, and they have been invaded numerous times since assuming its present shape.

Secondly, Russia's economy is somewhere around twelfth place.  Even California, Texas, and New York separately have a larger GDP than she does.  Also, the combined economies of the EU, along with the US, completely dwarf that of her.  This is why Russia constantly feels the need to keep Europe in a divided climate.

Militarily, it used to be ranked third in defense budgets, but that is changing.  Saudi Arabia is currently spending more than they are, and the defense budget of the US is right at ten times that of Russia's.  That's the 2016 budget, and other countries are catching up.
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#18
(04-11-2018, 08:02 PM)mv Wrote: I'm gone from posting here for a while.

Rationale:  there are lots of interesting subjects right now and I prefer to spend time posting where I get some interesting replies.
It is not at about our disagreement, it is only about you being a bit boring, nothing new, only rehashed nonsense on the subjects you are badly informed about. Please post something new, I'll check the forum toward the end of the year.

Let me make one suggestion:  learn Chinese asap!  This will greatly increase your chances of finding good accomodations with the new masters,... something like a permanent job interrogating guerillas... beats being in a labor camp.  S6


TTYL.

Let me make a suggestion to you Michael, or is it now Mikhail. While you are on your vacation, take a good look at yourself, and understand just how much you have changed over time. Its been a 180 degree turnaround.

And as for boring, again look within yourself.

Take your time, because from now on, if you continue to be your current arrogant self, your posts may disappear.
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#19
OK,  John, one last post.


Wow, that was one heck of a threat! 





I will appreciate as a favor if ALL of my posts are deleted now.  I will not be back, we have nothing further to talk about.
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