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Forthcoming European Disharmony............
#81
(06-04-2017, 02:51 PM)WmLambert Wrote: The real problem is the media selectively reporting pejoratively.

The real problem is that they've completely lost their minds.

We're in dangerously uncharted waters.  The media may have been hostile to Nixon, but to use the public domain to call him a "piece of sh*t"? ... unimaginable .... to use the public domain to render him as a severed head?  Inconceivable.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#82
(06-04-2017, 04:51 PM)Palladin Wrote: Yak,

Trump was elected as an anti globalist, anti free trade, nationalist. Agreed.

But, those nationalists still think the US is exceptional and should rule the globe. Very few are like me, isolationists. Very few, probably 1-2%.

I agree with the 'free trade' part, and disagree with the 'rule the globe' part.  

Free Trade - I think its for show to keep the America First folks on board.  He keeps talking about the evils of it, but is doing nothing to punish other trading nations.  The minute he starts doing that, he will lose me, because as a C.Liberal, I am 100% for Free Trade.  Smoot-Hawley proved that protective tariffs lead to global economic war, and Everyone loses.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one and holding my breath.   Banghead

Rule the Globe - How many times do I have to repeat John Naisbett's Global Paradox pronouncement?  As we act globally, we begin thinking locally/tribally.  The US is really no different.  There's a huge difference between being the biggest economic player, and the ruler of the world.  

So, as a self professed Isolationist, are you also an economic isolationist Patrick?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#83
The benefot Europe got from US defense spendings is the capacity of the US to intervene in case of war and nuclear retaliation.
The US poses a too big risk to Russia or anyone who would want to invade Europe.

But the US is not able to stop an invasion or to weight decisively to counter the first assaults. Since the end of the Cold War and the withdrawal of US armed forces from Germany, the US doesn't have this role and this capability anymore. Yet you and Trump are still talking as if it was the case.
This is a die hard myth.

In case of Russian invasion, Polish and Lithuanian forces will be on the frontline along with other european nations.

It could be wise to rise our military forces but it won't make the US save a single cent. The US will waste as much in excessive military spending as today.
Trump shows this as if the US had to spend more because we don't spend enough. that's ridiculous: He decided to rise the US defense budget by 10% anyway.

Mr Y Wrote:when they realize that they can't get transport to and from the battle field without relying on some sketchy Russian taxi drivers.
I don't think they are unable to. I think it's rather 5x cheaper to ask the russian to do the heavy logistic. It's an economic decision. Just as the US transported stuffs to Afghanistan on Russian railways.

We are not at war with Russi and collaboration with them is fair.

We should also stop the second myth that Russia is an ennemy.
We have to be able to defend ourself against a Russian invasion, that's obvious. But Russia has no plan to invade Europe at the moment. It's important to remind that.
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#84
Fred,

It's enough to worry some in the French legislature.  It's probably much cheaper to use U.S. tankers to refuel Rafale fighters as well.  But again, it's dependence.  Merkel has indicated that Europe must become more self-reliant and Macron seems to agree with her ... at least in principle.  But how can self-reliance be claimed when there are key dependencies?  Russia is not inclined or likely to overrun western Europe.  But what about a country like Estonia?  There was an exercise a couple of months ago designed to try to get Russia to think twice.  Why would that be done if it wasn't necessary?  Do you think NATO leaders simply make up scenarios for the sake of making up scenarios?  And if one NATO member falls, is it possible to simply ignore that and pretend that the alliance is intact?  What are the odds of the French taking the field if first they have to contract with their Russian taxi drivers?  Europe as a whole would be safer and more secure if it could do more of what it needs to do to defend itself within the NATO framework without as Merkel said "complete dependence on others".

... and it's all not simply about preparedness for war either ...
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#85
(06-04-2017, 05:14 PM)John L Wrote: Free Trade - I think its for show to keep the America First folks on board.  He keeps talking about the evils of it, but is doing nothing to punish other trading nations.  The minute he starts doing that, he will lose me, because as a Classic Progressive, I am 100% for Free Trade.  Smoot-Hawley proved that protective tariffs lead to global economic war, and Everyone loses.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one and holding my breath.   Banghead

"Free Trade" isn't always 'Free' John.  In this case, I think the punishment will be completely appropriate.  This wasn't some sort of knee-jerk Mexican wall tax ... this was completely adjudicated as part of an existing and ratified agreement.

Trump has also kabashed the TPP.  I'm not certain that was a bad call or simply part of "the show" either.

I'm all for "classic liberal" (hey funny ... you apparently have a switch that changes classic l*iberal to classic Progressive and it shows up that way now) principles, but blatant dumping isn't a normal or healthy aspect of commerce.  

With regards to nationalism v.s. globalism, my thoughts were less about trade and more about the Obama era notion that the U.S. exists to service the interest of the world at large.  Trump has pretty much stood that on it's ear.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#86
It is an interesting thing: how confronting a non-free trader nation in ways that may force it to become free.

We can't trade freely if the nation we trade with has strings attaches, right?

What Trump has always shown is a tendency to answer attacks more strongly than the attack itself. He answers more angrily, perhaps, but always much stronger. I'm sure Jeb Bush came to regret his minor slurs of Trump that got him tarred and feathered as a low-energy non-entity. With trade, if iron and steel have incentives attached that competes unfairly, I'd expect Trump to answer visibly and loudly - but to leave an opening for the offending nation to call a truce and make amends. Just equalizing incentives doesn't move the paradigm forward.
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#87
It appears to be working nicely ... we got a deal instead of trade war and put a stop to getting screwed over.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#88
Elections are going pretty much as I anticipated.  

'Czech Trump' clinches election victory, eurosceptics boosted

Earlier, Austria elected a Populist government as well.

Austrian election proves right-wing populism is new normal in Europe

And note the use of "Far Right" and "Hard Right" when the MSM describes the politics of the populists.  Yet when they talk about Socialism, or Communism, it is never called "Far", or "Hard" Left.  I wonder why?  You don't think there is a Leftist slant to the news outlets, do you?  

The fact is that Populism is sweeping the Western world, and will almost certainly spread out, as Centralization takes a hit.  And the EU is going to be in danger of being swept under the rug.  People want a say in how their government runs things, and all this Islamic immigration is the straw that broke the camel's back.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#89
(10-22-2017, 11:10 AM)John L Wrote: Elections are going pretty much as I anticipated.  

'Czech Trump' clinches election victory, eurosceptics boosted

Earlier, Austria elected a Populist government as well.

Austrian election proves right-wing populism is new normal in Europe

And note the use of "Far Right" and "Hard Right" when the MSM describes the politics of the populists.  Yet when they talk about Socialism, or Communism, it is never called "Far", or "Hard" Left.  I wonder why?  You don't think there is a Leftist slant to the news outlets, do you?  

The fact is that Populism is sweeping the Western world, and will almost certainly spread out, as Centralization takes a hit.  And the EU is going to be in danger of being swept under the rug.  People want a say in how their government runs things, and all this Islamic immigration is the straw that broke the camel's back.

The EU probably would have worked had it been governed by conservatives, progressives are going to run it into the ground within 20 years.
'It's not who votes that matters, it's who counts the votes'  |  György Schwartz, Budapest, Hungary
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#90
And of course, the Japanese are already with the program, and this lates election only solidifies Abe's nationalist leadership.

Abe cruises to ‘super-majority’ win in Japan vote

Quote:Tokyo (AFP) – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe swept to a resounding victory in a snap election Sunday and immediately vowed to “deal firmly” with threats from North Korea that dominated the campaign.

Abe’s ruling conservative coalition was on track to win more than 310 seats in the 465-seat parliament, according to a projection from public broadcaster NHK, handing the premier a two-thirds “super-majority.”

This allows nationalist Abe to propose changes to pacifist Japan’s US-imposed constitution, which forces it to renounce war and effectively limits its military to a self-defence role.

Abe said the comfortable election win had stiffened his resolve to tackle North Korea’s nuclear threat, as the key US regional ally seeks to step up pressure on Pyongyang after it fired two missiles over Japan in the space of a month.

“As I promised in the election, my imminent task is to firmly deal with North Korea,” said Abe, who is now on course to become the country’s longest-serving leader.

This means that he is going to begin arming the country for more than a purely defensive role. I'm not sure I like this, but its going to happen whether I like it or not. Shock
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#91
Is it possible for Japan to launch intercept missiles at Nork missiles and reach them over their own country?
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#92
(10-23-2017, 01:46 PM)WmLambert Wrote: Is it possible for Japan to launch intercept missiles at Nork missiles and reach them over their own country?

At this time, probably not. They would have to rely on our best technology, or develop their own.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#93
JL Wrote:The fact is that Populism is sweeping the Western world, and will almost certainly spread out, as Centralization takes a hit. And the EU is going to be in danger of being swept under the rug.
WB Wrote:The EU probably would have worked had it been governed by conservatives, progressives are going to run it into the ground within 20 years.

The EU made a huge mistake with the migrant quotas.

But the far-right and far-left voters are making an even bigger mistake by linking migrants and Islam to the euro currency and the EU.

Leaving the € and/or the EU will cause immediate economic suicide.

UK is a special case because they always wanted to be in the EU without the constraints of the EU and now, they think that being out of the EU with the advantages of the EU is the same, you just reverse the syntax.

But their economy is strong and has always been Commonwealth-centered, I daresay. So they will be just impoverished, loosing a hell of a lot of money, but not collapsing totaly.

Continental countries, on the contrary, especialy the poorer ones in the east would see their economy destroyed instantly if they decided to quit the EU or return to a national currency.
By instantly, I mean about 6 months before it takes effect.
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#94
Dr. McCrae makes perfect sense here.  In the end, this will be "Death By Bureaucracy".

EU ‘regime’ is DOOMED ‘like the Holy Roman Empire’.  THE European Union (EU) will end by 2027 like the Holy Roman empire (HRE) did, argues the Brexit campaigner and author Dr Niall McCrae.

Quote:The HRE was a group of Papal territories in Central Europe that developed during the Early Middle Ages and were dissolved in 1806 by Napoleon.

Writing in an article for the think tank, the Bruges Group, Dr McCrae said: “Just as the European Union is becoming less united, the HRE was not really holy.”

It comes as the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, admitted there were now “more cracks” in the EU after Catalonia declared itself independent of Spain last week.

Dr McCrae said that by 2027, there will be “rising tension between nostalgic nationalism and expanding ethnic enclaves”.

He said: “Among the commoners, rule by Brussels is at best tolerated, at worst despised”.

He wrote that in 2027 the chief Brexit negotiation, Michel Barnier, and his fellow commissioners will be behaving like the "enlightened despots" of the European past.

The Brexit campaigner's article claims that Mr Barnier will be undermined by secessionists, as the bloc becomes increasingly “detached”.

“For now, the EU seems to have strength and resilience: the combined might of France and Germany, its neoliberal multiculturalism an inspiration to youth.

“But 10 years on, and the view from Barnier’s bastion looks less assured”.

Dr McCrae thinks the EU will end slowly.

And even a German military study thinks this to be very likely, by the year 2040.

Shock German Army report predicts collapse of EU and entire West alliance by 2040.  THE complete disintegration of the European Union (EU) and the West over the next two decades is a serious proposition, according to a shock internal report drawn up by the German Army.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#95
So next EU's end of the world date is 2027...
Ho-ho-ho! S11

Problem is the EU is not an empire and doesn't pretend to be one. It has not been created by the desire of a single man. It hasn't expanded through invasions.

The example of the Holly Roman Empire is interresting because it's often regarded as a EU of the Middle Age. Thought it wasn't.
It was only territories under the rule of a single Emperor. Territories which extended or retracted trough wars of conquests or pacific purchases.
(It was not Papal territories as the article said. Papal territories were smalle italian provices not linked with the HRM. But OK).
The goal was not unifying Europe but to control as much of it. No Empire controlled more than 1/3 of Europe thought Charle Quint controlled above 1/2 at some point.
He and others may have had a dream of unification but that was never embraced realisticaly except by Napoleon and Hitler.
There were more often than not several empires in Europe. So claim that these empires were previous EUs is not acurate historicaly.

But Europe in the past has always been united (if not unified) through the feodal system and then the aristocracy.

The feodal system assumed that every territory or owner of a territory (the concept of nation didn't exist) is always a vasal of somebody higher. The highest being symbolicaly vasal to the Pope and the Pope to God.

The feodal system created the noble class which became the aristocracy. The aristocracy survived feodality.

It was the aristocracy which was the old EU, a pan-european ruling class and families whose alliances didn't know any border except those of christianity, which was in pracice those of Europe.
The aristocracy was always european. When wars and conflicts ravaged the ground, these poeple met and convened to talk about politics and affairs internationaly.

One of the best example of similarity with our time EU was the marriage of Louis XVI (Kingdom) and Marie-Antionette of Austria (Empire).
it can be compared to the Merkel-Macron couple, except that today politicians don't use marriage to seal alliance.
(Thought I'm sure the young Macron wouldn't say no to Merkel's hand. LOL.)



And there is no central authority from Brussels. This is a myth.
Each member state have their own governement (still have their own governement). For affairs deemed of collective concern, the local governements have the responsability to apply the decisions that THEY argeed with other governements.

It's far from centralized.

These decisions are not decided only by eurocrats whose job is to design new rules aka "the Commission", the "Parliament" and other "European institutions".
Important matters are always negociated through meetings of member's state ministers in charge or by chief of states.

Even if the EU has theses things typical of a governement, it's still merely an organisation.

Because decisions are taken at a majority of member states, some coutries have to follow some rules which they didn't want. But this has never disrupted the trust between member states and toward the EU.

Everybody is free to join (if they meet the conditions) or to leave it.
Of course, if as in the case of the Brexit you want to leave but get a deal which is just as if you stayed in the EU without the liabilities, then you'll have to negociate. But you can leave without any deal as well.

I understand Brexiteers are telling BS. But to those who question the surviability of the EU seriousely, I have one question:

What do you want to see collapsed, talking about the EU?

Because even if the EU is dissolved, its institutions closed and it's name banned, the European landscape will stay exactly the same as today with the countries we actualy know still in place.
And all these countries will still have hundreds of agreements among each others and will still want free trade and so on.
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#96
I tend to go with the second article's 2040 date Fred. Also, it will not be the end of the world of Europe either.

They went too far Fred. They should have stopped with the Common Market, which was a Winner!

Sorry, but ethnic tribalism is going to rule supreme in the end. It's what makes Europeans unique unto themselves. It isn't going to change either. But in the meantime, let's enjoy it while we can, ok? S22
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#97
[Image: gk23rghltjwz.jpg]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#98
No 2040 was a date in a fictional scenario written by military experts to analyse every eventualities.
It was not a prediction. Nobody is crazy enough to predict what will happen in over 20 years.

Certainly the EU won't collapse yet, but, myself I don't rule out any disastrous event. Everything can always happens.

At the start of WW2, when Germany invaded Belgium, the defense minister fell out of consciouseness at a diner.

I don't want to be this guy when the EU collapses. I just hope it won't. S5

It's true that the EU has gone very far. Maybe too far, but for the moment, it's fine. it's not the Frankenstien of your picture, thought the loss of one arm is a nice illustration.
You will note that while the arm may try running alone, as in Family Adams, it won't be as powerful as on the body it just left.
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#99
EU defense pact

politico.eu Wrote:Britain’s impending departure made it easier to get the project off the ground
....
EU officials have identified defense as an area where they have made progress on multiple fronts since Britain voted to leave.
....
The new initiative aims to spend more on defense systems and make member countries’ militaries much more integrated with each other.

German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel Wrote:Europe spends 50 percent as much as the United States on defense yet only has 15 percent of its military efficiency.

.....
And despite calls from Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to set up an EU army, this idea remains “something which is very unlikely.

The 23 countries that announced their intention to take part in the new initiative are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden


at the same time:

John Redwood, advises investors to remove their money from the United Kingdom.

Forbes Wrote:Rising inflation, largely due to the fall in sterling after the shock result of the EU referendum in June 2016, is squeezing real incomes. Continually rising consumer credit is unsustainable when real incomes are falling, so it was inevitable that there would soon be a significant contraction of bank lending. That is now coming to pass.


As Redwood notes, the Bank of England has continually warned about rising consumer debt burdens.
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