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Vietnam's future
#1
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/23/politi...tnam-trip/

Interesting to see that President Obama had a great welcome in Vietnam.

For the full article see link above.

Vietnam is communist oriented, but it is not the friend of China.

On the other side, Vietnam never had any disputes with Japan and there are no bad memories about Japanese troops and WWII and also not about Japanese and Vietnam war.

The Japanese Imperial Army was not very active in Vietnam, using it merely sometimes as a transit route.
Japan was also not very active in Vietnam during Vietnam War.

With USA and Vietnam back to normal, Japan-Vietnam trading, including military assistance, is now possible.

Japan and USA are no danger for Vietnam anymore, but China clearly is a neighbor which is seen with deep mistrust in Vietnam. China was attacking Vietnam directly, it was also assisting Pol Pot in Cambodia, and now China is aggressively trying to occupy sea territory next to Vietnam.

While Vietnamese are very good fighters on land, they have not very much which can be used to confront the Chinese Coastguard boats, and not to talk about the Chinese Navy.

Vietnam needs some military help especially for its Navy, the question is however which country is willing to give something to this poor nation. - It's similar to Philippines, equally poor...

Whatever you give to Vietnam to assist its military is a gift, with not much hope to see anything in return.

Economically the Vietnamese income per capita is about the half of impoverished Philippines...
Average only USD 1800,- per year....

Quote:Hanoi, Vietnam (CNN)President Barack Obama announced Monday that the United States is fully lifting a decades-long ban on the sale of military equipment to Vietnam.

In a joint news conference in Hanoi with Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang, Obama said that the removal of the ban on lethal weapons was part of a deeper defense cooperation with the country and dismissed suggestions it was aimed at countering China's growing strength in the region.
Obama in Vietnam

Instead, it was the desire to continue normalizing relations between the United States and Vietnam and to do away with a ban "based on ideological division between our two countries," he said.

The Vietnam War ended in April 1975 with the fall of Saigon -- now called Ho Chi Minh City -- after the United States withdrew combat forces and the North Vietnamese launched a massive offensive to reunite their homeland under communism.

U.S. and Vietnam agree to strengthen ties 03:01
While Vietnam and China are neighbors that share a communist ideology, China has aggressively claimed territory in the South China Sea, irking Vietnam and other Southeast Asian neighbors and also raising concerns internationally.

Any comment about the future in Vietnam?
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#2
President Obama was really welcome in Vietnam, there is no anti-US sentiment anymore, especially not among young people.

There is some reason for that, for ordinary people life in Vietnam is quite poor and boring, they hope for some change and Vietnamese communist politicians are totally mistrusting towards China, but also towards Cambodia...

It is obviously that Russia is politically not much into Vietnam anymore, I don't know exactly why, but Vietnam for Russia was always something like Philippines for USA, it costs only money, with more or less nothing in return.

No idea how USA is considering this financial issue. Why to give anything to Vietnam for free? Maybe USA is also thinking about Japan, let the Japanese do it and let them pay the bill instead of us....

Whatever, this Obama-Welcome in Vietnam was not a nice day for China. I think, Chinese politicians are not happy to see pictures like these ones...

   
   
   
   
   
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#3
Nothing the Vietnamese do will satisfy PRC, or any Chinese dynasty. Of all China's enemies, the Vietnamese are the most vociferous, and established. Vietnam will always view China as the Big Bully, and Great Satan, Next Door. And they will lay down Everything to keep them out, even if the majority of its citizens are butchered in the process.

We Americans look at the Hatfields and McCoys feud as the Big One over here. But it is small potatoes in comparison, because this has gone on for over a millennia. It is now in the Vietnamese DNA.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#4
Seems to me the cheapest, easiest to execute and wisest course would be to give VN several jets with harpoon missiles instead of funding a Navy, we're having a hard time affording that ourselves. These missiles were made to counter ships and can be fired from land as well.
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#5
It amazing that 40 years after the defeat of the US there, Vietnam is welcoming America again. Finaly the US wins.
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#6
For whatever reason, they love Americans. That is an odd story and yet at the same time, I have to say is a testament to the basic virtue our soldiers displayed "for the most part" in combat there. Had we been bad, they would not have this open display of affection, IMO.
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#7
(05-29-2016, 07:58 PM)Palladin Wrote: For whatever reason, they love Americans. That is an odd story and yet at the same time, I have to say is a testament to the basic virtue our soldiers displayed "for the most part" in combat there. Had we been bad, they would not have this open display of affection, IMO.


But wait, I thought you considered us, as in UnitedStates, to be "disgusting" barbarians, who did all sorts of terrible things to others. Are you attempting to have it both ways here? Shock
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#8
(05-29-2016, 02:39 PM)Palladin Wrote: Seems to me the cheapest, easiest to execute and wisest course would be to give VN several jets with harpoon missiles instead of funding a Navy, we're having a hard time affording that ourselves. These missiles were made to counter ships and can be fired from land as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan%E2%8..._relations
This is a good summary of Japan-Vietnam relationship.

Sorry, but neither Japan nor USA are willing to give something for free. Vietnam is rather out of any money.

As said already, Japan will give old vessels and other outsourced things we don't need anymore to Philippines and Vietnam.
It seems Vietnam will receive about 5 old vessels from USA and 5 from Japan for its coastguard. 

More or less a gift, more or less this action is solely for the reason to irk China, if you ask me.

It is ridiculous, that China is claiming a part of the Spratly Islands, if you ask me, look at this map.
Where is China, where is Vietnam? And still China is in the Spratly Islands, drilling for petroleum offshore and taking out as much fish as they can....

   

While USA did not say, they will do it for free with their old boats, they gave 'green light' for Japan to sell (= give for free) military items to Vietnam and to start trading with Vietnam unlimited concerning any other items. This opening and lifting of all trade restrictions is very important for the Vietnamese government.

The problem with Vietnam is, that this government is totally unable to give anything in return.
While it will hardly ever become a friend of China, you cannot trust Vietnam either, as said in this place the Communist Party wants to know everything, wants to decide anything, wants to control everything...
Investments in this poverty country are risky, maybe ending in a failure or financial deficit for the foreign investor due to high inflation, unclear laws etc.


http://www.thanhniennews.com/politics/vietnam-will-continue-to-add-us-boats-to-coast-guard-fleet-38476.html

Vietnam will continue to add US boats to Coast Guard fleet

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-security-vietnam-idUSKBN0EC13R20140601

Vietnam expects Japan coastguard ships next year: vice defense minister

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http://www.thanhniennews.com/politics/ja...38522.html
Japan gifts patrol ship to Vietnam after upgrade
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#9
John,

I still think the VN effort was noble at least as noble as trying to help the Euros avoid the Red Army. I think guys like you are to be commended because if you guys had been brutal, this outpouring of affection would not exist.

I see all nation's foreign affairs generally as "disgusting", and I see the soldiers as naïve with some exceptions.

Any soldier who was involved in the anti Serbian, Libyan and Syrian stuff is a criminal of sorts in my view based on our laws and their oath's. Their leaders are war criminals of the highest order.

You of all the posters here know you swore to protect the constitution from all enemies, domestic and foreign, so following orders to kill when your own constitutional government apparatus has been bypassed is unlawful of the soldier. That is not what you guys swore to do.
The exceptions for reasonable folks are emergencies where we do not have the time to debate to save some lives, none of those applied above and the legislatures refused to authorize the war efforts.
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#10
(05-30-2016, 04:12 AM)yohan Wrote: It is ridiculous, that China is claiming a part of the Spratly Islands, if you ask me, look at this map.
Where is China, where is Vietnam? And still China is in the Spratly Islands, drilling for petroleum offshore and taking out as much fish as they can....

And why not?  If one can get away with it, and not have to fire a shot, what's to lose in the long run?

PRC is doing this to set precedent for future legal claims.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#11
If there is oil near these islands, China is not going to leave them anytime soon.
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#12
(05-30-2016, 12:30 PM)John L Wrote:
(05-30-2016, 04:12 AM)yohan Wrote: It is ridiculous, that China is claiming a part of the Spratly Islands, if you ask me, look at this map.
Where is China, where is Vietnam? And still China is in the Spratly Islands, drilling for petroleum offshore and taking out as much fish as they can....

And why not?  If one can get away with it, and not have to fire a shot, what's to lose in the long run?

PRC is doing this to set precedent for future legal claims.


The first step is about how to reduce co-operation with China to be less independent from this 'not so nice' country.
This takes a while, but it is starting now.

We have to do this in Japan, but especially also Philippines and Vietnam have to do this.

The next step is to keep your military to be ready to block Chinese ships, to make it difficult for them to move around.
We have to consider, that Spratly Islands are rather far away from China mainland. It's a difference if your own country is 20 miles away or 1200 miles. 

For this reason we here in Japan have to construct more and larger military ships to protect ourselves, and to give away - more or less for free - older ships and smaller ships to Vietnam and Philippines. This transactions are now fully supported by USA, especially to the pleasure of Vietnam.

We have to stop China far outside in the open sea. Japan has no problem to stop China out in the sea so far, and no military ship or military plane made it up to Senkaku Island up to now. Construction of military ships and outposts on non-disputed islands continues.

South Korea is thinking in a similar way, as China wants to cut down South Korean sea territory by claiming the Socotra Rock, and from Japan it is claiming the Senkaku Islands. From the others around it is claiming the entire South China sea....

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...yptr=yahoo

Quote:Japan Shifts Investment From China to Southeast Asia

Japanese investment growth to China slowed after protests there intensified in 2012 following a territorial dispute over islands in the East China Sea, prompting Japanese companies to diversify investment risks.
With Japan’s economic growth anemic and the nation’s population aging and declining, companies have been searching for growth opportunities elsewhere in Asia.
“Asean markets are attractive from the Japanese perspective,”’ said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings in Singapore. “Many economies have great potential to grow, thanks to relatively low per-capita incomes and a young population profile.”
The openness of markets in the region along with labor costs that are lower than in China also is attracting Japanese investment, he said.
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#13
(05-29-2016, 01:46 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: If there is oil near these islands, China is not going to leave them anytime soon.

We have to see the fact that these islands are rather far away from mainland China.

It's about to cut off access for Chinese ships, not only for the Chinese coastguards, but for all Chinese supply ships, like those for fishery, construction, oiltakers, drilling platforms etc.

China cannot do anything else but to supply those areas by ships and these are not so short routes, over 1200 miles, while Vietnam and Philippine coastline is in most cases far less than 200 miles (economic zone).

Some islands claimed by China are only 20 miles or so away from Indonesia coast - yes, from Indonesia! These territories are located far south of Vietnam. 

Especially if Vietnam has better ships for military and coastguard, I am sure they will do something about it and start to block Chinese ships next to their coastline.

Vietnam has no money to buy those required ships, but there are enough old and small ships in Japan/SouthKorea and also in USA, just give them for free to Vietnam and to Philippines too, instead to transport them to the junk yard.
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#14
Just one example
Vietnam - China

I feel really sorry for this poor Vietnam Navy, there is nothing what they can do with their small ships to protect Vietnamese boats. They fail totally to stop Chinese Coast Guard ships next to their own coastline.

The Chinese Coast Guard ships are just ramming all of them, sometimes even from both sides.

   

   


Between Japan and China it is a little bit different. It's not so easy for Chinese ships to move around as they like.

It's quite an aggressive confrontation, not without danger... such incidents are daily, sometimes several times a day.

   

   

The Chinese Coast Guard ship is left, the Japanese Coast Guard ship is right following it near the Senkaku Islands.
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#15
What surprises me is that the Vietnamese haven't set up an insurgency program to take place in southern PRC already.  They are masters at this, and small numbers can accomplish things that even the largest Chinese military cannot begin to match.  

They don't have to go all out at it, but just create trouble.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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