Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Nigel Farage, UKIP and EU Membership
At this time nationalism is not a strong force enough.. but regional elite interests clearly emerge -- regional in the case of EU may be old nation states and thus a reflection of nationalism in a way, this is a moot point.

What is not a moot point:

UK staying in the EU contradicts economic interests of others, in particular of Germany. So Brexit is a done deal no matter what May May do.
(Merkel is not a mental giant .. but comparing to May she sure knows how to run a household!)

Brexit is really not that interesting anymore.

We have new fault lines emerging : Germany vs France and Italy vs France.
(and an old one : Eastern Europe vs the Core -- EE countries want the UK to stay, need British contribution to the budget.... but this is a minor thing, Poles do not have enough weight, and the others do not have any weight at all.)

Somehow I think these are not the last ones.
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
mv Wrote:UK staying in the EU contradicts economic interests of others, in particular of Germany.
Why?

An abrupt no-deal Brexit will be bad for everyone, not only for UK.

Only the May's deal (the May-Merkel Pact) would have provided an economic interrest to Germany and other EU countries by letting the advantages of UK being in the common market while forbidden from the political decision making.
But that's ruled out by now, even thought that it would be still far better than a no-deal.

Well, Brexiteers knew it in advance. They are well prepared for the hard Brexit:

[Image: 52354564_1056290001224493_43902535892981...e=5D26486C]
Reply
Quote:Why

Simple. Europeans get large assets that are being moved from the UK to the continent.

Two specific areas of importance :

1// Banking. Germany may be able to keep Deutsche Bank afloat this way, this is big. And this gives Germans 2nd place in the banking industry.

2// Auto. Production is already being moved from the UK, not quite sure where yet, but one can probably find out. Again, very big.

Now, EU loses UK's contributions to the budget ... not that big, let the Poles et al take their cut.
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
(02-19-2019, 03:54 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: [Image: 52354564_1056290001224493_43902535892981...e=5D26486C]

I suspect that a good portion of those named have different circumstances.  For example, Farage is married to a German, which automatically means his two youngest children have dual citizenship.  Also, Rupert Murdoch is an Aussie, who is also a naturalized US citizen.  Why shouldn't he have residence in the US?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
--- SCHiST Happens! ---
Reply
Pushing the Falling Off the Cliff {new name for "Brexit") by two weeks beyond March 29th.

reuters Wrote:Prime Minister Theresa May won a two week reprieve on Wednesday from British MPs, who postponed a threatened rebellion
Unfortunately, europeans have already decided they didn't want to give yet another delay.
E. Macron Wrote:we would in no way accept an extension without a clear view on the objective pursued.”
Well, if the Brexish ask for a delay, it's precisely because they have no idea what to do and have no plan whatsoever to take a decision.
It means the EU could declare the UK as not a EU member anymore even without UK's approval.

Unthinkable, but more and more likely.


JohnL So why are these people living international lives if Great Britain is the most unique place on Earth? Why are they campaining for Brexit if they are not even British?
Reply
I can only answer for Farage -- no clue about who those others are.

But with Farage, it is quite obvious: some people, usually women, desire a grand scale marriage.... the most important event in their lives, as they think.

Farage likewise wants a grandiose divorce.
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
mv Wrote:Simple. Europeans get large assets that are being moved from the UK to the continent.

I don't think it makes much of difference. 95% of these assets are not invested in the production economy. It's mostly derivatives of derivatives.
Reply
Auto industry is real production.

The other one I mentioned, banking, is real assets too. Sure, many large banks have rotten portfolio of derivatives, in particular Deutsche Bank should have collapsed back in 2008 and it did not improve much since -- did very badly on EU stress tests. But there are real investments in the UK too and moving them to the continent is a path for survival for Deutsche Bank (well, and a path for furthering French dominance).

I have not seen any sector-by-sector dissection of Brexit .. rather odd nobody wrote it (or perhaps it is out there, and I simply did not find it.)

Here is one on auto :

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/indus...ing-impact

and one on banking

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/in...511701.htm

(note: i did not read THESE article, lazy to look up what I did read S6 )
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
One unremarked-upon friction is more with bureaucrats who neglect local issues in favor of elite issues. An example are the many fishermen who were suddenly locked out of their life-long fishing territories because other franchises had an in with the new EU authorities. I remember Nigel Farage, when he had so many disaffected Britishers complaining about intrusive new rules that they say ruined their lives.
Reply
If you google you should be able to find stories about confrontations between British and French fishermen. ~ a month ago. And some confrontations around Gibraltar as well.

I doubt these are really huge issues but who knows.

Another interesting twist : it should not be long for the Dong Kong to realize that the UK is ripe for buying more US agricultural production ... I think we shall see some twits in this direction. He may not even wait for the official Brexit......
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
Mark Francois, a pro-Brexit lawmaker Wrote:We will essentially be voting on exactly the same Withdrawal Agreement that we voted on last time and in very simple terms: if you ask the same question you are likely to get pretty much the same answer,”

link

May will have fought to the end for her deal. S2 LOL.


mv Wrote:have not seen any sector-by-sector dissection of Brexit .. rather odd nobody wrote it
That's normal: They will never write publicaly about the real goal of this mascarade.
but you ar eright: There may be some interrests for some mainland europe groups in a no-deal Brexit.
But not for others.

WmL Wrote:many fishermen who were suddenly locked out of their life-long fishing territories because other franchises had an in with the new EU authorities.
Yes, that's one of the argument for Brexit.
After Brexit they can hope to recover 0.001% of their annual losses thanks to increase fishing returns. S6

mv Wrote:it should not be long for the Dong Kong to realize that the UK is ripe for buying more US agricultural production ... I think we shall see some twits in this direction. He may not even wait for the official Brexit......

Yes. The soybeans he can't sell to China anymore could well go to the UK.

Just note that the Official Brexit is in less than 18 days...
And still no agreement yet. I mean no agreement with the US...

mv Wrote:Gibraltar as well.
I didn't see any confrontation but people are very angry about the Brexit over there. Spain could reclaim the enclave for that reason.

Unfortunately there is no backstop  (a rule which prevents the Brexit in any reasonable manner) for Gibraltar as they have for Ireland.
That would have been interesting.
Reply
Quote:I didn't see any confrontation
(Gibraltar)

there was an article like a month ago, too lazy to try to find it now.... not the most interesting part. Nothing wrong with Spain reclaiming the enclave -- Brits have no need for it anymore, in their trip on the Dodo road former strategic assets are meaningless.

What the Brits need are the soybeans and other forage, goes well with socialism (any doubts about the next elections outcome?).

Brexit 'sees UK finance firms move £900bn to Europe'

Trillion dollars in real assets ... for now. S2

The interesting part is that I assumed the German and the French be the beneficiaries ... well, not quite, Dublin is getting some of the loot too.
But strategically while different groups do have different interests, the way to build the Franko-German Reich is to get rid of the Trojan horse in the EU.
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
mv Wrote:the way to build the Franko-German Reich is to get rid of the Trojan horse in the EU.

I don't agree with the words. I agree with the concept.

One advantage for the EU (beyond assets being moved to the continent - if you include Ireland in "Continental Europe" LOL) ) is that after getting rid of the euro-skeptic UK, the EU can move on with mor ambitious projects.
In other words, the EU will be able to do everything the UK was against.

I can't tell you exactly what they were against to, but there are a few things. This would explain why EU negociators didn't want to be soft on Brexit. They asked the UK to agree with them or not. No concession anymore.

They never quite respected the Shengen agreement, (not sure if they signed it even) which requires states to let people cross borders without their identity being checked. They always checked the identity of everyone.
The effect was mostly psychological but it gave a sens that by going there, you went to a foreign country.

mv Wrote:Nothing wrong with Spain reclaiming the enclave -- Brits have no need for it anymore, in their trip on the Dodo road former strategic assets are meaningless.
No, but the Brits will want to keep this relique of the past.

And also, there is an allergy to border change in Europe. A true disease, impossible to cure. So, I'm afraid Gibraltarians will have to stop at a checkpoint when they go shopping to Spain (and possibly pay import tax or hide what they bought under the seats).



Tomorrow (wednesday) an interesting vote will take place: After rejecting the Divorce Deal for the second time, which was obvious, they will vote either for Leaving Without a Deal or "some kind of endless delay"[sic].

The Markets believe that odds are highs that they will reject a No-Deal Brexit and, then, the Brexit will be delayed and perhaps even canceled.

Even Theresa May dared pronounced this
May Wrote:Does it (the parliament) wish to revoke Article 50?
Until now it was unthinkable for her to even talk about it.

yet, personally, I'm not sure of anything.

European Commission President J-C Junker Wrote:There will be no further interpretations of the interpretations, no further assurances of the reassurances if the ‘meaningful vote’ tomorrow fails.

He means fails to cancel the Brexit. For others, it would mean succeeds.

[Image: 53439511_2104245579660589_49820323123979...e=5D255CCF]
Reply
[Image: 5213607_47184901ebe3f6882e9a25cccea5e890.jpg]

Some of the expected price increases changes.

Yes, soybeans and forage for the Brits.
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
Britain can import dairy products, poultry products, beef, lamb, fish, and produce from Canada, Australia, New Zealand, USA, and South America without being subject to any tariffs. Canada and the US are major automobile and truck manufacturers. The EU will be the one holding the shitty end of the stick.
The true purpose of democracy is not to select the best leaders — a clearly debatable obligation — but to facilitate the prompt and peaceful removal of obviously bad ones. 
Reply
Absolutely true, and obviously pork for their growing Islamic population would not be a problem either.

But please do not interfere with having fun at the May's expense ... S6
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
reuters Wrote:The short delay envisaged in the motion could last until June 30, but the longer extension is not currently time-limited.

....
A new vote on May’s deal is likely next week
....
despite twice being overwhelmingly rejected
S21

May\s spokesman Wrote:ministers had agreed to “redouble their resolve”
S3S2

So, to sum it up:
The British parliament doesn't want:
- to leave without a deal
- to leave with the deal
- to stay in the EU
- to hold another referendum
- to ask May to resign and take care of it themselves
Thus voted to delay the Brexit. But they don't want to stay in the EU...  S9

Will Brexit supporters survive psychologicaly?

European Council President Donald Tusk Wrote:EU leaders meeting next Thursday will consider pressing Britain to delay Brexit by at least a year
Banghead link


Canucklehead Wrote:Britain can import dairy products, poultry products, beef, lamb, fish, and produce from Canada, Australia, New Zealand, USA, and South America without being subject to any tariffs.

Who told you there would be no tariff? Nobel Prize Donald Trump S16 aka Mr Trade-War? LOL.

Trump Wrote:I look forward to negotiating a “large scale” trade deal with Britain after Brexit
Why after Brexit?

So far the UK has NO TRADE DEAL with anyone (except the ones the EU currently has and which the UK could keep.)

Then even with a deal, why would you think, shipping food from the other side of the globe would be cheaper than just buying them next door?

But yes, they can buy Volkswagen cars build in Mexico...
Reply
What this amounts to :

British rules finally agreed on one thing: the decisions about their "independence" should be taken in Brussels.

A nation of clowns.

As for Dong Kong: yes, no tariffs, it says.

Mr. Trump may be generally ignorant, but being around real estate business surely made him aware of one ancient practice: offering no interest mortgages. Good for attracting morons. And then you milk them dry. S6

Actually it is becoming painful to watch. It may be best to just expunge all the Brits and return the land to the natives... what? no natives? ... ok, give it to the Muslims, at least they are not clowns.
Reply
She seems to be decided to put her deal to vote for a third time.
Her, relatively new argument is that if they reject it again, Brexit may be delayed indefinetly. link
Reply
(03-17-2019, 06:08 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: She seems to be decided to put her deal to vote for a third time.
Her, relatively new argument is that if they reject it again, Brexit may be delayed indefinetly. link

One aspect most writeups fail to notice is that if there is a delay, there is a hole set of problems, to begin with: EU budget and EU elections.  And making any changes requires all the remaining EU countries to agree..... so some real doubts. 

Of course, Brits have a simple way to deal with these problems: pay their share of the budget and forfeit the representation and subsidies. The others may accept. S6

-----

Meanwhile, I suspect Merkel and Micron are way more concerned about APFA than Brexit.  The vote (today, I think?) is important, this is a possible European future and Brexit is just a nuisance to end.... together with the UK.

Never forget that the only time in history when the Brits were not universal pests was under the Roman rule. Holy Roman rule might work just as well. S6
Sodomia delenda est

Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 4 Guest(s)