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Eastern Siberia vs China
#1
Sino-Russian possible developments in Siberia.
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#2
Good summary.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#3
Yes, it is. The one (may be the only) thing missing is the short (and shortening) life-span of Russian male that pretty soon will skew M/F ratio well below 0.5 on Russian side of the border in contrast to already seriously skewed M/F ratio well above 0.5 on Chinese side. 100mil surplus of Chinese males of marriageable age is an explosive problem.
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#4
This is why there is no way in Hades that the two countries will become allies now or in the future. And a public facade is not an alliance.

China and Russia are NATURAL enemies. China lusts, and Russia shudders.

The Tenth Commandment

" Neither shalt thou desire thy neighbor's wife, neither shalt thou covet thy neighbor's house, his field, or his manservant, or his maidservant, his ox, or his ass, or any thing that is thy neighbor's."
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All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#5
ag Wrote:Yes, it is. The one (may be the only) thing missing is the short (and shortening) life-span of Russian male that pretty soon will skew M/F ratio well below 0.5 on Russian side of the border in contrast to already seriously skewed M/F ratio well above 0.5 on Chinese side. 100mil surplus of Chinese males of marriageable age is an explosive problem.
This is interesting thought of yours, but Russian women are not attracted to Chinese men. Russian women are better off than the total majority of potential brooms in adjacent Chinese provinces.
Some Russian girl working in ShangHai once I heard saying: "I don't count the Chinese men as men."
In the past centuries when borders were open, mixed marriges were also extremely rare.
Note that most of Chinese are short (unlike Russians), only the younger generation is robust and tall, but their psychology having formed by the doctrine "one famiy- one child" has definate feature of individualism. Are they attracted to Russian women, those young West-oriented "spoilt children" mostly living in the developed South? I doubt.
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#6
Still 100mil. unmarried Chinese (and without reasonable prospect to marry) will go somewhere. And Russia is one of possible destinations. Particularly with "male availability situation" getting worse.
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#7
Their government should start "a little victorious war" somewhere. Shock
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#8
Green Wrote:Their government should start "a little victorious war" somewhere. Shock

Well, if they do, it most likely will be a short one with Russia. India has already reached an accord with their land disputes from the 50s. Only the South China Sea disagreement over a few islands are another possibility.

The most beligerent opponent to China is VietNam. And I'm certain that the Chinese do not wish to go to war with them . They are far more ideological and the last time they fought, in the mid 70s, the Vietnamese whipped them soundly.

Only the Russians offer the possibility of a Short Victorious War. David Weber would be happy to see us using his title here. S6
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#9
Green Wrote:This is interesting thought of yours, but Russian women are not attracted to Chinese men.

No, but they are to American men I have come to understand. :o
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#10
ag Wrote:Still 100mil. unmarried Chinese (and without reasonable prospect to marry) will go somewhere.
And will reproduce ... :?
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#11
Gunnen4u Wrote:No, but they are to American men I have come to understand. :o
They are compatible biologically...
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#12
Well, I've got a solution. Shock :idea:
Sell Easter Siberia to the US, equip all young Russian women with London's novels and spread the rumor that a lot of "frontier amerikans" are available just a train ticket away....
Nah, it will not work, unfortunately... European Russia (as well as Ukraine, Belarus, etc.) will become depopulated and fall pray to Poles, or Germans, or...

PS. Sustained campaign for real economic development, health, and family formation might help in the long run, but I am not sure that the time for the long run is available...(I might be wrong, of course).
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#13
Quote:Fourth, China could begin to covertly drill for oil and natural gas in remote regions of eastern Siberia where energy resources remain unexploited, hoping that Moscow would “look the other way.” Following a course of action similar to its South China Sea policy with Japan, small teams of highly-trained Chinese geologists, engineers and military personnel would be inserted into Russian territory on energy exploration missions.
It sounds like fun... Do they think we are idiots or what?
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#14
Be funny.They disappear...but the PRC sends more.
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#15
Long time ago some friend told me Russian joke about a very cunning Chinese war plan: 1. On the first day of war 20mil Chinese will surrender, 2. On the second day of war another 20mil Chinese will surrender, 3. On a third day of war Russians will surrender. :twisted:
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#16
Green Wrote:
Quote:Fourth, China could begin to covertly drill for oil and natural gas in remote regions of eastern Siberia where energy resources remain unexploited, hoping that Moscow would “look the other way.” Following a course of action similar to its South China Sea policy with Japan, small teams of highly-trained Chinese geologists, engineers and military personnel would be inserted into Russian territory on energy exploration missions.
It sounds like fun... Do they think we are idiots or what?

Of Course they Do! What part about that don't you understand Comrade? The Chinese hold you Russians in contempt, but via Eastern Tradition, they hold it back and present another face to you.

They covet your land, your resources, and in the future, your women. Don't you Russians see this? Shock
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#17
Time to interject a thought from Palladin

I have often told Canadians they were lucky they chose us as their "big neighbor".

Russia is losing population,China is gaining population,unfortunately for everyone,China's population growth is skewed decisively towards males.

Long term,Russia cannot hold all that vast land mass with this paradigm.
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#18
I read that China's population has already altered downward from what it was predicted to be several years ago. As The Free Enterprise bug gains strength, that will only continue in the same direction.

The PRC army has already announced it is lowering their manpower needs and shrinking their army. This is a good trend.
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#19
YEa, they will shave off like 100,000 men out of a 2 million strong army?

Why downsize? They have better stuff now? Great.
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#20
Gunnen4u Wrote:YEa, they will shave off like 100,000 men out of a 2 million strong army?

Why downsize? They have better stuff now? Great.

It's a typical "Collectivist" deliminea. Since the system is always 'behind', it has to rely on quantity over quality. But as it improves, things get more costly to maintain.

They Must downsize, if they are going to balance the "guns and butter" equation. If the economy is to continue growing, the military will take a hit. It's natural. Just look at Europe. they are in a Hobson's choice. Either they cut their military, which is costly, or cut their socialized entitlements. And since they are a "so called" democracy, they have cut out the military, thus neutering themselves.

Cut entitlements? Not now. Get ahead? Not a chance!

China is quickly reaching that point, where they will have to make the Real hard choices.

I wonder which way they will go?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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