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Catalan Independence & Spain's Future Economic Collapse
Now Michael Ledeen is getting in on this breaking up of the existing nation states, that are beginning to sweep the globe. Generally, he has the right idea about what is happening, but still hasn't understood that it is basically "Tribalism" that is the cause of all this.

The Separatist Wave: Kurdistan, Catalonia, Brexit ...

But he is fully aware of where the most volatile is likely to be: Africa.

Quote:Oddly, the map most deserving of redrafting is Africa, where national boundaries -- often drawn where competing colonial powers stopped fighting one another -- are totally illogical, running through tribal populations. I used to spend a lot of time in Congo, sometimes known as Congo-Brazzaville, a former French colony. If you cross the Congo River into the other (Belgian) Congo, you quickly see that the tribes on opposite sides (and hence in separate countries) are the same. But there isn’t much talk about redrawing the map of the dark continent, although it makes good sense in many cases. Let’s hope it won’t be done by a future caliph.

You don't make the difference between Spain and Africa...
In Barcelona 350,000 poeple protested AGAINST the independance. This independance is far from granted. Many Catalans are against the way their local governement handled the issue.

It's not the Spanish governement who is losing credit for using violence, it's the Catalan movement.
The spanish police has been very moderate in response, given the size of the treath.

It's already weighting on their economy. Some large companies have anounced that they were going to remove their headquarters.
Poeple understandds that rushing with this independance without reason, is not going to be in their interrest.

As I said: talking a dialect is not a sufficient reason.

Comparison with the M-E and Africa is non-sens.

In the M-E and Africa it's obvious that all the borders have to be redesigned. In many instances, the borders have lost all tangible reality or are even inexistant as the central governement has lost control over large areas completely.
Fred, Please Read

Of course many Catalans are opposed to independence.  I know you are not familiar with US history and the Revolutionary War for independence.  The percentages of pro-independence, anti-independence(pro Crown), and indifferent, to the idea of independence were almost an even one third all the way around.  But the pro-independence third were 100% dedicated to their cause, and they were highly motivated.  They're the ones who won out, because they were more than willing to go the extra mile.  

In Catalonia, they say its roughly 50:50, but there are always those for, those against, and those don't care one way or the other.  The pro-independence Catalans are highly motivated and that gives them a distinct advantage.  If Spain steps in and uses force, i.e. military, there will be armed revolution, and terrorism that will quickly amount to war.  I'm also talking about terrorist attacks on Spain as well as in Catalonia.  If the EU tries to step in, it will be stuck with ALL of the negatives and blame.  

Look Fred, I don't have dog in this fight, other than the fact that I Love Individual Liberty.  For instance, I don't care if California decides that they can make it on their own, I'll support their right, as long as they don't start killing people.  On the other hand, you are from Belgium, and for centuries where you live, before it became a country, it was tiny, tossed around, and had no power of its own.  You guys were always being tugged and pushed around by the Dutch and French.  So I understand why you favor the EU.  After all, the headquarters is located in Brussels and that amounts to a lot of prestige.  So its only natural for you to cross your fingers and pray that you folks have a right to exercising your own destiny AND stay in the limelight.  

Its only natural.  But I'm just telling you that trying to keep a bunch of different critters boxed up in one package is going to lead to confrontation and violence.  I'll give you two examples: Africa; and the USA.  

First Africa.  All of the present boundaries in Africa were the result of foreign treaties by Europeans.  Africa had no say in this.  And as a result tribal populations and lands were not set off as they should have been.  Most of the countries have part of a tribe in one nation, and another part in another.  And to make things even more screwed up, almost all of the countries had two or more tribes from within, vying for control.  That's why there have been so many uprisings and massacres between tribes.  One of the tribes I studied in my African Anthropology course was the plight of the Igbo tribe of Nigeria.  They have been called the "Lost Jewish Tribe if Israel" because they were exceptional business people, which set them off from others. But it also set them off for hatred.  What eventually happened to this tribe was a horrible genocide, and almost nobody in the West is even aware that they could have been exterminated.  Never underestimate the power of Tribalism/Ethnicity.  In order to eliminate it everyone of them would have to be exterminated.

Secondly is the USA.  Unlike other countries we have always had a way of accepting different peoples and then giving them time to merge into a homogeneous English heavy Culture.  We took in a controlled amount of new citizens and managed to absorb them over several generations.  Then we would do this again stirring the pot and letting everything mix together.  It has worked because there was never one or more large numbers of tribes coming in and looking at all this from a tribal POV.  We always absorbed everyone first, and then asked for more.  The Scotch-Irish migration, and the Italian migrations are the two biggest, and while there were problems, this went along as well an anything of this magnitude ever could.  

But now, the world is acting globally on an economic basis.  And this is where the critics have everything wrong when they talk about the curse of Globalism.  There are two parts of Globalism: the Economic, and the political parts.  And all of these so-called experts don't bother to view each individually.  The truth is that acting economically on a global basis is almost all a Win-Win for everyone.  But acting politically on a global basis is full of problems and contradictions.  As the world works on the former, it doesn't on the later, because the world wants to retain their own identity and autonomy.  And this is only natural.  It ain't gonna change, so you, me, the EU, the Russians, and everyone else had better get used to that.  And why do you think Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it?  If you say "It contained a majority of ethnic Russians", YOU WIN!! And thats the way this century is going to work its way out.  

The EU is between a Rock and a Hard Place, because Euros have this love affair with Bureaucrats, and bureaucrats love nothing better than reproduce and grow.  And the EU is better at this than anyplace in the world.  And THAT is where the EU is going to eventually come apart..............because all these different countries/tribes/cultures want their independence to rule themselves and not have some outsider telling them such things as having to accept "X" number of Muslim migrants,....or else.  

I'll say this one more time.  The EU is doomed to failure in the long run, because it is based on an outdated system, and it is not flexible enough to roll with the punches.  I'm sorry man, this has nothing to do with you.  Fred, I consider you a friend, because we go back a good ways.  So I am not saying these things to stick in your eye.  I'm just telling you how the trend is going to go.  I totally agree with John Naisbett that by the 21st century there will be double the number of independent countries than there were in the year 2000.   That thing with your Flemish territory may well kick up again before this is all over, leading to two parts to Belgium before this is all over.  

Its a crying shame that things can be done like the friendly separation of Czechs and Slovaks.  S4

And in a major show of disobedience, the Catalan farmers pull a false flag on Spanish police before they can halt a general strike.

Catalan farmers trick Spanish police and trap them in field to stop them disrupting general strike. Local media claims the police were stranded for several hours

Quote:A group of farmers tricked Spanish police by trapping them in a field to stop them disrupting protests following the Catalan independence referendum, Spanish media reports.

During the general strike on 3 October, a group of farmers from the region of La Jonquera in Catalonia said they planned to close off the border with France using their tractors.

Hundreds of Spanish police officers went to the border in an attempt to stop the farmers from doing so.

Once they arrived, the farmers were not present and instead had closed off the motorway and all roads heading back into the Catalonia – leaving the police officers trapped.

Yes and No, John. Catalans are very proud of being Catalans. They are showing it in the streets and during the banned referendum.
But nobody is going to take weapons and start a civil war for Catalan independance and Spain is never going to send troops and shoot at anyone in Catalonia. Nobody on either side wants that.
The few scuffles with police and slightly injured poeple was already beyond unthinkable but it was very localized. In many places in Catalonia local police let poeple vote without reacting despite orders to prevent the vote. These policement were themselves catalonians. It's well known. But no sanction has been taken against them.

In one word, this story is a lot of noise for nothing. It starts to take the shape of a big joke:
They declared solemnly the Independance of Catalùnia at midnight.
In the morning, the Catalanian president reversed the situation. One is aying that they should enact independance now, the other that we must seek dialog. It's hard to figure out what they want or what they are going to finaly do.

Your story about tractors blocking the border is illustrative of the shoot-yourself-in-the-leg policy of the independentists.

This independence is absurd because they have nothing to gain materialy and everything to lose. The economic toll is already starting to bite (even faster than Brexit). If they continue, in a matter of months, Catalunia will move from the wealthiest region to the poorest one, just because businesses hate instability.
They will stop short of any stupid decision. Believe me.
Money dictates everything.

This THE big difference with African countries and Kurdistan. Tribes in Africa and the ME have everything to gain economicaly from independance because the ruling rival tribe take all the resources and don't share anything.

But that's not the case with Catalonia where at the regional (catalonia), state (Spain) and EU levels there are democratic mecanisms which ensure social jusstice for everyone, economic freedom, rule fo law and respect for local identities.

Catalonia is not a tribe, as you would say The Kurds or The Hutus. It's a region, an ethnic group and a dialect. That's all. Every single European country has several ethnic groups and dialects. The idea that you should make different states for each dialect is ridiculous.

You can imagine California becoming an independant country. Not a tiny linguistical area in rural europe.

The Flamish wanted independance just because they were fed up with the everlasting power of the Socialist Party on the wallon side. Since the wallon socialists lost votes, and the wallon center-right (MR) managed cooperation with the flamish, they are ok with the new situation and they don't seek independance at any cost anymore.

Maybe one day, the world will be split into smaller entities. But that won't be countries or even states in the sens that we know today. It will be a different construct.

The EU is obsolete and in advance at the same time in this respect:
1/ It respects only existing states/countries as partners and reject any idea of partition, except if it goes perfectly quitely and according to laws and in a mutual agreements.
The EU is opposed to any independantist movement. This can be discussed.

2/ It's at the same time the only entity in the world, unreplicated anywhere neither today nor in the past, which allows the perfectly democratic and sovereign existance of small (Belgium, Czechia, Danemark...), tiny (Estonia, Slovenia, Luxemburg...) and micro-countries (Monaco, The Vatican and other almost unkown village-states dispersed across the continent).

The EU as a structure is perfectly fit as a group of nations, for the acceptance of new, small countries such as Catalonia. It's the ideal fit I'd even say. But they don't want it for political and economical reasons.
They don't want more members originated by divisions because it's enough complicated and expensive like that.

But moreless, all the strongly independentist regions enjoy already a high degree of liberty and power.
This makes formal independence claims even more useless.

And one thing is certain: The smaller and the more numerous the memeber states, the more power will be given to the EU because all these new states will want to join together with the rest of Europe to act globaly.
Ok, we'll see. Spiteful

I wonder who's going to blink first?

Spain To Suspend Catalonia’s Autonomy As It Threatens With Formal Independence

Jordi Cuixart's speech, October 16th



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