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Catalan Independence & Spain's Future Economic Collapse
Lotta beachfront there. Must be a resort Mecca, alá Monaco.
....One more step closer................

Catalan separatists back new leader, pressure on Madrid mounts

So, what is Spain going to do if they declare their independence? Will they invade and send in an army of occupation? Its a "Lose-Lose" for Spain any way they go. Eventually they are going to have to let them sever ties, and bite the bullet by taking care of their fiscal woes.
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You are looking forward for this event, do you? S5

Catalan independance? Why not, if that's what poeple want? If the poeple want.
(01-10-2016, 04:38 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: You are looking forward for this event, do you? S5

Fred, only in the sense that it proves John Naisbitt correct, that the trend is for smaller countries, and not huge masses. No empire building. We in the US should keep this in mind.

But most importantly, a smaller country is able to represent its citizens better, and still be closer to them. In my opinion this is a very good thing.
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I didn't realy chose it, but in fact, I'm glad to live in a small country. Corruption exists but it's on a much smaller scale and things get known much faster. Politicians in DC, Paris or Berlin could steal a billion without anyone's notice while in Belgium, Slovakia or Lithuania, the scandal is all over the press when 100,000 are missing.

And leaders are slightly closer to the population too. Less ivory tower. i'm talking regulraly on facebook with a semi-well-known Brusselian politician whose I have befriended, and talk politics with when we were younger. I don't know if he remember me from 20 years ago, because he never confirmed that. But to my surprise he wrote to me personaly for my birthday. And I'm sure he did it himself, not some paid moderator. This would be unthinkable in a larger city or country.

Things are more friendly. But sometimes we also need large entities where we are all represented as a single block for global affairs.
Yep, that is one of the main reasons why it is happening. We don't need big countries to be efficient, or do business around the world.
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Catalonia's independence movement is now entering another phase as it moves toward total independence.

Puigdemont's election in Catalonia starts new phase of independence process, still a long way ahead

After pro-independence parliamentary deal, newly started 18 month term should be used to build the structures of the Catalan state · Roadmap towards independence suggests specific implementation of secession will come later on
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It's not done deal yet. To negociate a secession acceptable for the spanish governement they would have to offer a large compensation to Spain. In any case they will have to inherit an important part of the sovereign debt. A part which would be larger than the proportion of the population. More to the proportion of the economy. Because the economy, not the population, is the collateral for a sovereign debt.

They must not only win the vote of the population, not only win the aproval from the rest of Spain and from the Spanish parliament, they must also win an agreement with Spain's creditors.
I think that they could even get their independance without a yes from Spanish parliament if they get a deal with the creditors.
However, if they don't get an agreement with Spain's creditors they can forget about it.

Sort of, massive sovereign debt is sticking independantist regions to the motherland... S5
Only time will tell Fred. S5
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The ruling coalition in Catalonia has stated that if the upcoming referendum is for "Yes", they will immediately declare independence.

Catalonia to declare immediate independence if 'yes' wins referendum

Quote:Catalonia will declare independence "immediately" if a majority of the Spanish region's voters opt for independence in a Scotland-style referendum called for October, its ruling coalition said Tuesday.

"If the majority of votes are for creating a Catalan republic, obviously independence will have to be declared immediately," said Gabriela Serra, a member of the separatist coalition that governs Catalonia.

Her comments came as the coalition presented a law aimed at extracting the northeastern region from Spain's legal system in a bid to circumvent all legal and practical challenges to organising a referendum -- a move that will deepen tensions with Madrid.

My best guess is that the threat of withdrawal may add to the "No"s and it may well fail this time around. But that won't be the end of the matter, and eventually they will be going their own way unless Spain is willing to bend over backwards for them. And it doesn't look like they will.
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Stakes are getting higher on Catalonia Independence.

Quote:Spain Catalonia: Court blocks independence referendum

Spain's constitutional court has suspended a referendum law passed by the Catalan parliament to hold a vote on independence next month.
The court says it will consider whether the law breaches Spain's constitution.Despite the decision, Catalan leaders say the vote will be held as planned on 1 October.

PM Mariano Rajoy said he had appealed to the court to declare the referendum illegal, describing the law as an "intolerable act of disobedience".
Spain's wealthy north-eastern region already has autonomous powers but the regional government says it has popular support for full secession.  Hours after the constitutional court's decision, the Catalan Parliament approved the legal framework for a transition in the case of a victory for independence.
The pro-independence majority in Catalonia's parliament passed the referendum law on Wednesday.

Mr Rajoy said that all local councils would be warned of their "obligation to impede or paralyse" any effort to carry out the vote.
"What is not legal, is not democratic," he added.  

Earlier, chief prosecutor José Manuel Maza told reporters he had asked security forces to investigate what preparations, if any, the Catalan government had made to hold the referendum.  He said his office would present criminal charges against members of the Catalan parliament for voting for the referendum, and against members of the Catalan government for signing off on it.  The Catalan government has a majority in the regional parliament made up of the separatist Junts pel Si (Together for Yes) coalition and the left-wing CUP party.

Using the hash tag #josigno, mayors around Catalonia have been posting photos of themselves on Twitter signing official declarations of support for the referendum.

By threatening the use of force, the Spanish government has pretty much guaranteed a "yes" vote by the citizens of Catalonia.  And if it arrests and jails MPs who vote for secession, they will be be setting the stage for a possible violent rebellion.  Its a Lose/Lose situation for Spain.  Spiteful
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Something tells me there is going to be violence, or even a civil war here in the near future. Spain is screwing up by the numbers on this heavy-handed approach.

Spain threatens to arrest over 700 Catalan pro-referendum mayors
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Yes, it seems the Catalan separatists are decided to go for serious. The Spanish governement ordered a crackdown on the referendum preparation. They siezed 9 million vote ballots. Arrested 12 member of the local parliament. They were suspected of stealing governement datas (...) The referendum was declared illegal a few months ago.

But, no, they didn't garanteed the independence or future violence. The reaction has been relatively small and calm, in regard to the importance of the event.
There were only between 10,000 to 40,000 (smallest and highest reported counts) and other smaller numbers in other cities. That's far from massive. And there were no violence or disruption reported.
Half of Catalans are for independence, half are against or undecided. But very few would take weapons for this.
These poeple are not extremists.

There was a truely massive march in Barcelona, but that was before the arrests.

12 politicians have been arrested, but there were no action against the population or whatever.

The point is that there is no obvious material advantage for the Catalonians to part from Spain. There could be, but that remains very theorical.

IMO, the Spanish governement should let the referendum go ahead to preserve democracy. And the same time put the conditions for an exit, as the EU do with the UK.

First thing, if Catalonia leaves, they must meet these conditions IMO:
1/ to share Spain's sovereign debt and local debt toward Spain.
2/ give garantees that they will stay in the EU and respect EU treaties, which will be de facto the garantee that they won't close borders with the rest of Spain or impede travel or business.

The first condition is sure to cause problems. The second is up to them, but I don't imagine that they wouldn't.

The best for them would be to make half-separation like in Belgium.
(09-23-2017, 05:17 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: The best for them would be to make half-separation like in Belgium.

And speaking of your home country, what is currently going on with the Flemish independence movement? I haven't been following it of late.
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Nothing: The flamish independentist party (NV-A) won the ministery of immigration, and they are happy.
They don't talk about dibanding Belgium anymore (or not as often)

The most interresting is that their immigration minister, Theo Francken, isn't doing anything special. He's just making the situation less bad than with another one. Yet, the pro-migrant party Ecolo, still call him a nazi.
Ecolo raised a scandal because Theo Francken made a deal with Sudan to identify sudanese. He was accused of working with Sudan's secret services and risk sending poor migrants to torture. At the end of the day, all this absurdity backlashed on Ecolo...

As a joke, I put the head of Theo Francken on Adolph Hitler... meeting with the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem. (I don't know if they realized the subtility).

[Image: mufti_hitler_theofr.jpg]

our ministers Wrote:We took 3 points in the last polls.
[Image: 21766481_1608132372566446_59873644786751...e=5A4A59C3]
Catalan referendum this sunday. Will be interresting to watch.

Many spaniards inside and outside Catalonia are opposed to the independance.

IMO the vote will go ahead despite police orders. But nothing special will happen.
It went out quiet violently, between 90 and 300 wounded according to opposite sources ( I believe it's rather around 100).
No "criticaly wounded" reported, fortunately.

Maybe Catalonia will become independant one day, but not today. It will take another 20 or 40 years. Because you can't declare independance if the others are against it. The whole Spain belongs to all Spaniards. That you speak a dialect is not an excuse. You need better reasons to want independance.

Kurds have much better reasons.
The catalan independantists are crazy: They want to declare independance on monday.

It's crazy because nobody could think for one second that it will have even a beginning of legitimacy.
The vote was not legal. Only 43% catsed a ballot (only pro independance of course). Poeple outside Catalanumia were not able to vote or even express their opinion.

They are seeking conflict. I can't blame the Madrid's governement this time.

And the most important is that Catalans don't have any reason to wish independance. The live fine.
This independance will change absolutely nothing and will cost a lot of money.

It's only for power. It's almost a coup.

Compare to Belgium were Flamish are pro-independance in greater numbers, proportionaly, than in Catalunia:
About 60% in Flanders and 45% in Catalunia.

The Flamish are able to think rationaly and give up what would be a huge waste of money. They get more now than what they would get by being independant.

In Scottland they also did it in a orderly manner: They were just short of 50% to back independance (that was before the Brexit). They didn't rush like crazy with declarations.
Now with the Brexit, Scotts have very serious argument in favor of independance but they are able to wait.

Catalunian policiians don't care. They only wants more power for themselves. They don't respect anything.
Fred, I'm not trying to go against you here, but like I keep saying, Catalonia is just the tip of the iceberg here. And yes there is going to be an awful lot of upheaval all over the world as all this global downsizing takes hold. And the Spanish government has played this like something you would see in a Monty Python movie. They keep forgetting that for every action they make will result in an equal and opposite reaction.

I've forgotten where I read this, but the Spanish government has been trying to load Catlalonia with Spanards over the years. They don't speak Catlan, and have no interest in the area, except keeping Catalonia from having a plurality.

If this keeps up, there is going to be terrorism against the Spanish presence. I'm talking about bombs, and other means to destroy and kill Spanish. That is going to be the next step in this process of independence. And sooner or later the Catalans are going to gain independence, come hell or high water.

This has the makings of being a very bloody century, and the US is not going to be immune either, if the ruling class in DC don't get their acts together. People want to have more of a say into how their government works.

I'm sorry Fred, but get ready for a very rough ride for the decades to come. And when this hits the Chinese, its going to be "Kattie Bar The Door".
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Fred, here's a great example as to what I am talking about here in the US, and why we are definitely not immune to the act of secession. California is separating itself from the rest of the country by making the state a sanctuary state. It is thumbing its nose at DC, and eventually the Feds will have no choice but go in and crack down on them. What they do after that will be interesting.

Gov. Brown signs California sanctuary state bill into law

I wonder what the more conservative northern portion of California think about all this?
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