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I can't find last analysis by Stratfor here
#1
So, America Unplugged
By Peter Zeihan:
Quote:The Russian Moment

But by far
the country with the most pressing need to act -- and coincidentally, the
most room to act -- is the one that the United States has been pressing the
hardest: Russia.

Unlike U.S. efforts to contain Venezuela or block
a rising China, with Russia the United States is playing for keeps. The
Soviet Union was one of only three states that have ever directly threatened
the United States -- the other two being the British Empire and Mexico. The
Soviet Union also came as close as any power ever has to uniting Eurasia
into a single integrated, continental power -- the only external development
that might be able to end the United States' superpowership. These little
factoids are items that policymakers neither forget nor take lightly. So
while U.S. policy toward China is to delay its rise, and U.S. policy toward
Venezuela is geared toward containment, U.S. policy toward Russia is a
simple as it is final: dissolution. Ergo Russia's
string of deep and rapid defeats.

But suddenly, the pressure has
evaporated.

Is it enough to answer most of your questions, begining with the words "Why Russia..."? In fact nothing new about Russia-US relations, but two days before it was "russian paranoya". Today epidemic entered Stratfor, and it's not burd flu.
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#2
I've been a critic of US policy relative to Russia myself. But,Russia arming a nutcase Muslim regime is not an approrpiate way to push back,IMO. It is much more likely Russians someday will feel the hostility of Islam via nuclear attack than we will over here. The Iranians assisted the Bosnians and will other Muslims someday and Russia has a whole lot of Muslims.
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#3
Palladin Wrote:I've been a critic of US policy relative to Russia myself.
I remember, I can't understand the reason of changing in Stratfor analysis last time. New author? Or it's time of changing in US? I don't mean Russian-US relations only. Article is worth to read.
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#4
I probably read everything Stratfor wrote on Russia and fail to see the change you are referring to.

What I saw was a very gradual shift of Stratfor's expectation caused by Bush' recent failures.
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#5
I can't find a recent Stratfor article on Russia.
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#6
Palladin Wrote:I can't find a recent Stratfor article on Russia.

Huh? There are three on the right side of the logon page.

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium...?id=258628
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium...?id=258490
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium...?id=240709
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#7
mv Wrote:I probably read everything Stratfor wrote on Russia and fail to see the change you are referring to.

What I saw was a very gradual shift of Stratfor's expectation caused by Bush' recent failures.
Gradual, you are right, but why they weren't so unconcealed year ago? They hadn't understand real matter of Bush policy? Or it was fraught with serious cosequences to say the same year ago?
IMHO it wasn't the direct result "caused by Bush's recent failers". Bush became weak...
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#8
unconcealed == ????

They actually missed only one thing (in the US-CIS relations): they did not expect Bush to lose the game over CIS states so quickly. Most of their analysis would have remained valid if Bush could maintain some positions in Central Asia as they thought he will. In fact, Stratfor is yet to say that the Central Asia has been lost to the US.

There next error may be about Ukraine: they seem to think that "pro-western" forces in Ukraine will survive the next election. It is not certain at all...

Heh-heh: here on AI Jane Palladin and me noticed the trend first.
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#9
mv Wrote:unconcealed == ????

I mean - honest in their analysis about real US policy towards Russia. I don't remember word "dissolution" or similar as an aim of US policy towards Russia in Feldman's articles year ago.

mv Wrote:They actually missed only one thing (in the US-CIS relations): they did not expect Bush to lose the game over CIS states so quickly. Most of their analysis would have remained valid if Bush could maintain some positions in Central Asia as they thought he will. In fact, Stratfor is yet to say that the Central Asia has been lost to the US.

... and not Central Asia only.

mv Wrote:There next error may be about Ukraine: they seem to think that "pro-western" forces in Ukraine will survive the next election. It is not certain at all...
Most of Ukrainian political elite are pro-West. They are nationalists, ... but beleive West will save their asses. That's why Putin placed high emphasis on their asses last wek. I hope they are satisfied... with pipe.
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#10
bh Wrote:I mean - honest in their analysis about real US policy towards Russia. I don't remember word "dissolution" or similar as an aim of US policy towards Russia in Feldman's articles year ago.

I recall some references to it, but primarily Friedman talked about preventing a resurrection of SU. Ukraine is the key to it, of course.

Quote:... and not Central Asia only.

The situation in the Trans-Caucasion region is not hopeless; Georgia is still pro-West; ditto for Ukraine. Central Asia is the only part of the game that has been truly lost.

Quote:...That's why Putin placed high emphasis on their asses last wek. I hope they are satisfied... with pipe.

Right move on Putin's part, of course. Unclear if it will work:
1. Given that the pipe to Western Europe goes thru Ukraine, see how much gas will be stolen if Putin raises the prices.
2. They have a counterplay: raise the rentals in Sebastopol.
3. Putin may not be ready for the open break with the West -- which *may* result from this.

This game will be interesting to watch....I'd bet on Putin, if I had to bet, but the result is not certain.
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#11
mv Wrote:1. Given that the pipe to Western Europe goes thru Ukraine, see how much gas will be stolen if Putin raises the prices.
2. They have a counterplay: raise the rentals in Sebastopol.
3. Putin may not be ready for the open break with the West -- which *may* result from this.

This game will be interesting to watch....I'd bet on Putin, if I had to bet, but the result is not certain.
If gas-theft by Ukraine will be Russia's sin for West, everything is possible.
But now, when building of new pipeline ia already started with participation of Germany, it's would be strange for West, if West means Germany to blame Russia. At least Russia's delivery of gas to Germany, and to Ukraine are two separate contracts. If Ukraine want to ruin totally their non-existent reputation, they must try to stole gas.
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#12
The Baltic pipeline will not be operational for a few years yet (asacr, 2010), and even then will be of lower capacity than the current overland pipelines.

So it is not something that matters *in the current crisis*.
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#13
mv Wrote:The Baltic pipeline will not be operational for a few years yet (asacr, 2010), and even then will be of lower capacity than the current overland pipelines.

So it is not something that matters *in the current crisis*.
You are mistaken. This year pipeline To South Europe via Turkey started it's official functioning. New liquid gas factories are building. Russia don't need exactly ukrainian pipeline to Europe to sell gas. It becomes problem of Europe. They need gas? They must bring "pro-West" Ukraine to reason. And don't forget - Ukraine obtain Turkmenian gas via ... Russia. Putin started his attack at right time. It's not a blaff. After russian gas "dissappeared" in Ukraine this year once again (it costs 1,3 billions dollars), what must he do?
BTW, remeber my prediction, that Putin will work in Gasprom after his presidentship? Schroeder becomes a president of german "Gasprom" month ago, he is building pipeline.
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#14
Quote:You are mistaken. This year pipeline To South Europe via Turkey started it's official functioning

This is not the pipeline that can be used to supply Western Europe.

The issue is this: a crisis with Ukraine and a shutdown of the pipelines that go through it would lead to a serious shortage in Western Europe and *might* cause an open crisis with the West. When the Baltic pipeline is ready, a big crisis will be avertable, but we are not there *yet*.

Right now, the question is if Putin is willing to risk an open breakup with the West; if he bluffs, his bluff may be called... This is what makes it interesting.
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#15
MV,

I'm not upset we got run out of Central Asia painlessly. I don't think it reasonable to imagine we could sustain against Russia and China's will, outposts there.

We aren't that strong and that theory was foolhardy. We simply cannot be responsible for deciding every freaking thing on earth.
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#16
Palladin Wrote:MV,

I'm not upset we got run out of Central Asia painlessly.

Neither am I, but the dynamics is no good.

We created a substantially stronger Putin and it is not clear just how far he is willing to go now.
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#17
mv Wrote:The issue is this: a crisis with Ukraine and a shutdown of the pipelines that go through it would lead to a serious shortage in Western Europe and *might* cause an open crisis with the West.
... crisis of Ukrainian relations with West. Why must we worry? Must we worry at all?S2 S2 S2 They made Yushchenko president, be happy, idiots!
Russia is ready to supply gas and to pay market price for it's transportation. If Ukraine want to blackmail, they can blackmail West Europe only. Price of gas for Ukraine is separate subject. If Yushchenko want to combine two questions: supply of West Europe and supply of Ukraine with gas, Eurounion will replace Yushchenko with Kuchma during next elections.
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#18
One cannot predict the reaction in the EU if the gas supplies are disrupted. One also cannot predict the reaction of the ukranians; for all we know they may shift toward violent nationalism.

I do think that Putin has chances of prevailing but the outcome is far from certain, and because of this it is far from certain that he will even play this game all the way.
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#19
Quote:One cannot predict the reaction in the EU if the gas supplies are disrupted.

Sure we can. If the supplies are severely disrupted, they will call for the US to intervene, while simultaneously criticizing us for human rights violations, undermining the UN, and other assorted breaches of "International Law".

-S
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#20
Stars & Stripes Wrote:
Quote:One cannot predict the reaction in the EU if the gas supplies are disrupted.

Sure we can. If the supplies are severely disrupted, they will call for the US to intervene, while simultaneously criticizing us for human rights violations, undermining the UN, and other assorted breaches of "International Law".

-S

The usual whining as you describe is certain. But if EU goes into gas shortages and economic crisis, this one time they'll have to do something more than just whine.

Perhaps, surrender, and become members of Warsaw Pact II. Wink1
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