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Ukraine Protestors in Action
#1
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/09/world/...wanted=all
#2
Yeah, its really beginning to get interesting, to say the least.

And just look here, only a few actually showed up to protest.

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Have a Gneiss Day!
#3
Roughly 500k demonstrated against the government, now 150k demonstrated for.

Do realize that it is a no-win situation, EU is not willing to put in money and neither is Russia for the most part, the only $ possible are energy discounts from Russia and they will not fix the economic mess, only slightly alleviate it.
OTOH, while the government likely does not have troops to put this down, it is getting colder there... most likely the demonstrators will get tired of freezing their asses soon enough.
Sodomia delenda est

#4
You think the weather might have had something to do with those numbers?
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Have a Gneiss Day!
#5
It will get colder.

The numbers (300k now) are large, but not surprising. The city of Kiev alone has nearly 3 million, at least half (probably more now) are anti-Russian, this gives 1.5 million, subtracting old, young and employed we get 700k or so pool of potential demonstrators even without busing in.

I did say a few months ago that taking over Ukraine is the Putin's most difficult task. I am not certain he will succeed at this time and civil war is quite possible.

And there is a factor that neither the Western nor Russian sources like to mention: the economic situation in the country stinks. How many of the demonstrators are driven by mere hatred of the current government rather than by the EU vs Russia choice?
Sodomia delenda est

#6
Here is a really bizarre analysis: Whatever happens in Ukraine, if Putin thinks he has won, Russia will have lost..

Nearly every sentence is wrong, the depth of ignorance is stunning, but

Quote:The protesters in Kiev are therefore not fighting just for Ukraine, but for Russia too.

this is exceptional.
Sodomia delenda est

#7
As I understand it, Ukraine is a balance between Ukrainians and Rus. It's a close divide and the Rus of course side with Russia and the Ukrainians side with the west.

When this government said NO to the EU, that lit a fire for the Ukes. They see this governor as Putin's man.
#8
(12-09-2013, 06:56 PM)Palladin Wrote: As I understand it, Ukraine is a balance between Ukrainians and Rus. It's a close divide and the Rus of course side with Russia and the Ukrainians side with the west.

Yes, but it is even more complicated, "Ukranian" is not a well-defined term, there are shades, and the divisions are different in different areas: geography, language, religion.

For instance, from the point of view of religion, 15% are so-called "Greek Catholicism" ... these are basically catholics with tiny alterations made to please the Orthodox, this group would be naturally anti-Russian. 70%+ are Eastern Orthodox, but this does not mean they are all naturally pro-Russian... there was a recent split in the church, so 40% of them follow the new Kiev patriarch, while 30% stick with the Moscow patriarch. These latter 30% are definitely pro-Russian, but the 40% are in play.
(and Kiev Patriarchate is a very new thing, only formed in 1995 and its formation is not unlike the separation of the Church of England from the Pope --- little doctrinal difference, but independent church for an independent country).

Now, on the language division: 31 million speak Ukranian, 11 million speak Russian (1993 data). Does this mean 3:1 pro-Eu sentiment? Not at all, Ukranian language is really not a language but a collection of Russian dialects still evolving.... and Eastern Ukranian dialects are not dissimilar to Russian dialects across the border.

Complicated....
Sodomia delenda est

#9
IMO, Ukrainians are not that divided between pro-EU on one row and pro-Russia on the opposite row facing off each other.
There are poeple who think their living will be better assured with Russia because their job and location link them to it. And other poeple who hope that opening to the EU will boost the economy.

Most of them don't care about ethnicity, even less about religion in this matter.

Of course a trade and border agreement with the EU will help their economy as it has with any other country. But geographicaly Ukraine is excentred from the european economic hub.
But the main problem is that easier trade with the EU will automaticaly makes trade with Russia more difficult (except for huge raw material quantities and gas).
#10
(12-12-2013, 04:51 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: Most of them don't care about ethnicity, even less about religion in this matter.

You'd be surprised Fred. Its tribalism, only taken to a larger plateau, but its still tribalism. Remember, "Act globally, but think tribally."
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Have a Gneiss Day!
#11
In the case of Western Ukraine, it is not "still tribalism", it is extreme tribalism. During WWII Ukrainians were very enthusiastic about killing Russians, Germans, and Polish, and I would not even mention Jews. And their WWII leader, Bandera, is the national hero in parts of Ukraine.

This is not history, but contemporary politics! Quoting from the link above:

Quote:Assessments of his work have ranged from totally apologetic to sharply negative.[4] On 22 January 2010, the outgoing President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko awarded to Bandera the title of Hero of Ukraine (posthumously).[5] The award was condemned by Jewish, Polish, American and Russian opinion,[6][7][8][9] and was declared illegal by a Ukrainian court in April 2010. In January 2011, under President Viktor Yanukovych, the award was officially annulled.[10] As a result, Stepan Bandera remains a controversial figure today both in Ukraine and internationally.

Funny enough, being highly controversial is the pattern for Ukrainian national heroes (aka national criminals). I'm curious what their school textbooks say about Bandera, Petlura, Mazepa... but no matter what they say, half of the population will be appalled.
Sodomia delenda est

#12
If that article is accurate about Bandera, he isn't as bad as some of his contemporaries were. It's surprising to me that his organization accepted Jewish help at times and forged passports for them.

Honestly, I have not read of another eastern leader in that era that would have done that. For example, in Romania, Richard Wurmbrand's view was the Romanians were as avid as the Germans to kill Jews.

Plus, that article indicated some of the murderous stuff happened while he was in jail. I'd prefer him over most the eastern leaders of the era I've read about.
#13
Quote:If that article is accurate about Bandera

Donno, truly. The article shows him in a somewhat better light than I recall from reading before, but my point is that one can build a positive or negative image from this bio quite easily.
One experiment one can try doing is to take the list of Bandera monuments from the article and plot it... I suspect this they will span exactly the anti-Russian part of the country.

Here is a link to another, much earlier, controversy: Mazepa. Here again we see either a national hero or a traitor, your choice, and yet again under "Historical legacy" one sees that the issue is modern politics, not mere history.

On an off-topic, US is a rather underdeveloped country in the area of the diversity of historical interpretations. Was Ape Lincoln a statesman or a criminal? -- if the US were as rich as Ukraine, we should be seeing both opinions expressed equally emotionally. And where do I find a book that treats Benedict Arnold as a national hero? S6
Sodomia delenda est

#14
Much of the anti Bandera info is dependent on the USSR. He may very well have been a murderous thug, but, when the USSR is the source of much of the info, you have to be skeptical about it.

I wonder what a Polish historian would say for example? They hate Russians and Bandera, so I'd like to see their view of the guy.

BTW, General Vlasov, now there's a contradictory guy. It's still not clear to me if he had really turned on Stalinism or was an opportunist only.
#15
He was a murderous thug all right, and the Polish would have excellent reasons to hate him, see here. What the Poles would say today may be affected by their desire to be influential in Ukraine.

A plenty of murderous thus became national heros, cf. Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.

As for Vlasov: much less controversy here,... it boils down to whether one sees self-preservation as opportunism.
Sodomia delenda est

#16
Is that Polish massacre the Katyn forest deal or was that separate?

Concerning Vlasov, as talented a field commander as the guy was, it's surprising to me Hitler didn't properly utilize him and then later have him killed. I read once there were up to 1 million volunteers, properly armed and led, that would have had great effect.
#17
(12-13-2013, 02:28 PM)Palladin Wrote: Is that Polish massacre the Katyn forest deal or was that separate?

No connection at all, Katyn was a murder of Polish officers either by Soviets or by Nazis, we probably will never know for sure. Volyn was a classical ethnic cleansing.

Quote:Concerning Vlasov, as talented a field commander as the guy was, it's surprising to me Hitler didn't properly utilize him and then later have him killed. I read once there were up to 1 million volunteers, properly armed and led, that would have had great effect.

Hitler's goal was to dismember and subjugate Russia rather than set up an allied government in it. Properly "utilizing" Vlasov et al probably would have resulted in Hitler's WWII victory and a very different world today. One interesting topic for alternative history here. Another is that if Vlasov were not captured in 1942, he might have become the top Soviet military commander, his rise in 1941-1942 was spectacular.

However, Hitler did not have Vlasov killed, instead it is the US that transferred him (along with many others) to Stalin who had Vlasov hanged in 1946.
Sodomia delenda est

#18
On an off-topic aside: I've been reading a load of alternative history books lately... there is a steady stream of them now, and some are quite interesting... naturally the subject of WWII is the favorite one for modern Russian writers, this period accounts for close to half all alternative history. Loads of different variations, but I have not seen (yet?) one that plays Vlasov as a positive character, perhaps no one dares. OTOH, another controversial Soviet general, Pavlov, did get a novel with starring positive role (usually he is treated as the supreme example of everything wrong with the pre-WWII Soviet military).
Sodomia delenda est

#19
Yea, I knew the US handed Vlasov back, we did thousands of other POWs who were murdered, too. We're always exceptional after all.

The way Stalin treated repatriated POWs, it's no wonder many turned on him. That was a heck of a huge talent pool there.

Seems to me Hitler could have used them and still stopped logistics to them when he was ready to turn on them. Especially when the tide turned, he had nothing to lose and lots to gain.

Adolf Hitler, besides being evil, wasn't really that bright of a man I don't think.
#20
(12-12-2013, 10:46 PM)John L Wrote:
(12-12-2013, 04:51 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: Most of them don't care about ethnicity, even less about religion in this matter.

You'd be surprised Fred. Its tribalism, only taken to a larger plateau, but its still tribalism. Remember, "Act globally, but think tribally."
Haven't I told you many times that I don't buy this theory?

The only thing that matters for them is money. Gas deal, Coal deal, Oil deal, timber deal, Ferrous metals deal, Non-ferrous metal deal... they trade the millions of truck and train wagons which will cross or not cross the border next year.

Almost everyday I have to stop my car to watch their fucking trains passing...

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