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More signs of an inadequate intelligence system
#1
Quote:China built new attack sub in underground facility
East-Asia-Intel.com, November 30, 2005

U.S. intelligence officials say China was able to hide its development of a new class of attack submarine by building the first vessel out of sight of satellites and spies in an underground facility.


China's new Yuan-class submarine.


The first Yuan submarine was launched May 31, 2004 and a second in December 2004.
The first submarine was kept secret from U.S. intelligence agencies until after the first photos appeared on the Internet and in a trade publication.

China is believed to have an extensive network of underground defense industrial facilities in central China, including factories that are used to build missiles.

The new submarine is believed to have characteristics of Russian Kilo and Chinese Song submarines and has quiet air independent propulsion.

It also is believed capable of fired advanced Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles.

The submarine was spotted under construction at a shipyard in Wuhan, in central China.

The underground submarine construction site is believed to be somewhere in the vicinity of Wuhan, although the exact location is not known.

The secret underground boatyard highlights the difficulty for U.S. intelligence agencies in assessing China’s military buildup.



[Image: yuanclass.jpg]

China's big weakness is its navy. It knows it cannot hope to compete with the US, and so cannot "check" or hold back US "interference" in what it sees as its sphere of influence.

If China continues to develop such technology it will eventually be able stope or "check" any protections the US gives to its allies in Asia, this includes Taiwan of course, but we must also consider Japan, South Korea and the Philippines (Philippines and Japan are both in contention with China over the Spratley Islands which are said to hold huge oil reserves.

The CIA had better get with it.
"I detest the man who hides one thing in the depths of his heart and speaks forth another"
-Homer
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#2
Totally agree, Jeff. China's weakness might be its Navy - but its strength is its massive intelligence community. You don't need satellite surveillance to know they are catching up with the U.S. philosophy of power multiplication. (One U.S. soldier is worth many opposing forces, because our tech base, training, and equipment is so far advanced over others.) They don't need a full generation to learn their way through the false starts and blind alleys to discover the technology, like we did. They took it from the Spy mart carryout.

The Chinese have a simple philosophy - one inescapable due to their huge population, in and out of China - that is to use all Chinese nationals as spies without formal contracts. Any bureaucracy capable of debriefing the millions of tourists and visitors to foreign nations and making sense of it all, is truly incredible.

Most Chinese spies are like Wen Ho Lee, a person from original Chinese root stock with Western training and supposed loyalty, who does all he can to assist his fellow Chinese back home in any way possible. He won permission to speak at Chinese Nuclear discussions with fellow scientists and ignored all the safety regulations installed to protect U.S. security. Active Chinese agents had more access to the Clinton White House than did our own Intelligence chiefs. The Cox Committee showed the Chinese have all of our Satellite codes (taken from Loral during joint-venture economic projects), most of our nuclear databases (Thanks to Wen Ho Lee and a totally porous DOE Office of Intelligence under Hazel O'Leary), and most of our strategic territory (Thanks to the Panama sell-out).

Wen Ho Lee failed 17 polygraph tests, and was discovered to have illegally copied classified documents - the entire Las Alamos computer codes used in developing nuclear weapons, containing all the classified warhead dimensions, geometries and materials, and all the data and results of all the nuclear tests done to develop these warheads. Yet, he won court protection against "racial profiling" and walked off scot-free.

Yet Wen Ho Lee was symptomatic of how the PRC gets its espionage. They don't pay anyone, or threaten them with blackmail to get info - they just debrief them and praise them for their contributions. Get a few million of these, and a few nuggets of intel pop up.

Look, we know they know this stuff. They have the best computer scientists in the world, and more Cray super computers than we have. They have the motivation to catch up with us and surpass us as soon as possible and are continually shrinking our advantage of Force multiplication, to the point where they recently started downsizing their military because huge numbers are now passé.

We don't need a snapshot from the stratosphere to predict they are working on all of these stolen technological secrets.
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#3
I wonder how good the CIA really is? The USSR collapsed and it caught us off guard. Course,it caught them off guard,too.

We knew so little about Iraq it's still astonishing to me.

We need a good one,but I have my doubts.
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#4
Palladin I've been telling you for several years now that our CIA, and entire Intelligence community is in terrible shape, and will not be functional for a full decade. Tenet said that last year.

Thanks to three decades of attacks against the CIA and the other Intel agencies, starting with Carter and ending with Clinton, the professionals have been pushed out and replaced by anti-Intel activists who work behind the scenes to destroy the agencies they work for. It is untenable, and is being corrected as effectively and quickly as possible, but the best guess is that a good fix is way off.

(Nixon started the Plumbers in order to give him trustworthy intel, because his own CIA and FBI were not trustworthy. The result was Watergate and his resignation. The end result was to further weaken the Intelligence Community.)
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#5
China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Navy Capabilities
Quote:Several elements of China’s military modernization have potential implications for future required U.S. Navy capabilities. These include theater-range ballistic missiles (TBMs), land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), land-based aircraft, submarines, surface combatants, amphibious ships, naval mines, nuclear weapons, and possibly highpower microwave (HPM) devices. China’s naval limitations or weaknesses include capabilities for operating in waters more distant from China, joint operations, C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), long-range surveillance and targeting systems, anti-air warfare (AAW), antisubmarine warfare (ASW), mine countermeasures (MCM), and logistics.

Observers believe a near-term focus of China’s military modernization is to field a force that can succeed in a short-duration conflict with Taiwan and act as an antiaccess force to deter U.S. intervention or delay the arrival of U.S. forces, particularly naval and air forces, in such a conflict. Some analysts speculate that China may attain (or believe that it has attained) a capable maritime anti-access force, or elements of it, by about 2010. Other observers believe this will happen later. Potential broader or longer-term goals of China’s naval modernization include asserting China’s regional military leadership and protecting China’s maritime territorial, economic, and energy interests.

China’s naval modernization has potential implications for required U.S. Navy capabilities in terms of preparing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait area, maintaining U.S. Navy presence and military influence in the Western Pacific, and countering Chinese ballistic missile submarines. Preparing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait area could place a premium on the following: on-station or early-arriving Navy forces, capabilities for defeating China’s maritime anti-access forces, and capabilities for operating in an environment that could be characterized by information warfare and possibly electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and the use of nuclear weapons.
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#6
William,

Yea,I think the assaults on the CIA started when the Senate did their "investigations" back around 1975. Church committee.

It's gone from an organization of go getters to a bureacracy full of Michael Schuerers and Valerie Plames.

I like Porter Goss,but I doubt he'll have time to make significant changes because he's gone in 2008 most likely.
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#7
Do you really think a Republican President in 2009 will get rid of Porter Goss? A democrat will thats for sure but what if a Republican wins?
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#8
WmLambert Wrote:Totally agree, Jeff. China's weakness might be its Navy - but its strength is its massive intelligence community. You don't need satellite surveillance to know they are catching up with the U.S. philosophy of power multiplication. (One U.S. soldier is worth many opposing forces, because our tech base, training, and equipment is so far advanced over others.) They don't need a full generation to learn their way through the false starts and blind alleys to discover the technology, like we did. They took it from the Spy mart carryout.

The Chinese have a simple philosophy - one inescapable due to their huge population, in and out of China - that is to use all Chinese nationals as spies without formal contracts. Any bureaucracy capable of debriefing the millions of tourists and visitors to foreign nations and making sense of it all, is truly incredible.

Most Chinese spies are like Wen Ho Lee, a person from original Chinese root stock with Western training and supposed loyalty, who does all he can to assist his fellow Chinese back home in any way possible. He won permission to speak at Chinese Nuclear discussions with fellow scientists and ignored all the safety regulations installed to protect U.S. security. Active Chinese agents had more access to the Clinton White House than did our own Intelligence chiefs. The Cox Committee showed the Chinese have all of our Satellite codes (taken from Loral during joint-venture economic projects), most of our nuclear databases (Thanks to Wen Ho Lee and a totally porous DOE Office of Intelligence under Hazel O'Leary), and most of our strategic territory (Thanks to the Panama sell-out).

Wen Ho Lee failed 17 polygraph tests, and was discovered to have illegally copied classified documents - the entire Las Alamos computer codes used in developing nuclear weapons, containing all the classified warhead dimensions, geometries and materials, and all the data and results of all the nuclear tests done to develop these warheads. Yet, he won court protection against "racial profiling" and walked off scot-free.

Yet Wen Ho Lee was symptomatic of how the PRC gets its espionage. They don't pay anyone, or threaten them with blackmail to get info - they just debrief them and praise them for their contributions. Get a few million of these, and a few nuggets of intel pop up.

Look, we know they know this stuff. They have the best computer scientists in the world, and more Cray super computers than we have. They have the motivation to catch up with us and surpass us as soon as possible and are continually shrinking our advantage of Force multiplication, to the point where they recently started downsizing their military because huge numbers are now passé.

We don't need a snapshot from the stratosphere to predict they are working on all of these stolen technological secrets.
I did not know all this! This is scary stuff! Thanks agains, Wm. for your knowledge base.
Solo~

When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty. --Thomas Jefferson
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#9
I take issue with this thesis. It assumes that all ethnic Chinese humans see "helping China" as helping the Chinese communist Party led government.

My guess is most view that as harming China.
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#10
Palladin, it doesn't need complicity by the unwitting Chinese nationals. It is the system that procures information from the millions of Chinese nationals who spend time in the U.S. Most do not realize they are being debriefed by professional espionage intel gatherers. The small percentage of willing "agents" is still a number too high for the U.S. to handle.
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