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China is #1 now
#41
(09-21-2014, 04:20 PM)Palladin Wrote: You would think with the proximity to the USA, that Mexico would have done better with USA "off shoring" in the last 3 decades instead of China. Just the logistics I would have thought would make China less of a competitor.

In the '90s I saw a presentation. It was many years ago so I may be a bit off in my memory, but the chart showed global per hour labors costs ...
Germany ... ~$30-50/hr
US ... ~$15-20/hr
Mexico ... about $5/hr
China ... about $1/hr

In the mid-90s stuff began moving to Mexico. Shortly after, people in places like Juarez began switching jobs to the factory across the street or a few cents higher wages ... ie wage inflation ... NAFTA was supposed to level the field, but mostly resulted in a logistical nightmare with mountains of paperwork ... shipping things into this country is a breeze ... shipping anything out (including relocated capital equipment) became a horror story. (as an aside, Brazil should be an economic power house, but it's nearly impossible to engage in trade because of all the import/export bullshit) Then stuff started moving to China in the mid-2000s ... now wages in China are moving up as people are expecting more U.S. wages have been flat to declining for the last 6 years ... and in the mean time the entire world is stuck in extended stagflation ... with U.S. consumers choosing penny pinching over excess consumption.

China is a potential liability in a number of ways. I've sourced electronic components as part of my job for decades ... Digikey, Mouser, Arrow ... etc... I remember seeing obscure items I was looking for on "Alibaba" for a while. Generally, the reaction to a Chinese vendor/middleman is not just no ... it's hell no. No way of knowing if you're getting the real part, some counterfeit pirated version ... or just not getting anything at all. Almost all ICs are manufactured offshore ... but doing business with China directly? ... no way. I can't imagine how they managed $32 Billion in an IPO ... they may look sexy but they've got huge headwinds to overcome ... and too long a history of being crooks. Mexico has declined as a place to business as well. In my previous two jobs, I made many trips down to Juarez to support manufacturing centers (maquiladoras). Ten, fifteen, twenty years ago, no problem. Today, there's no way I'd go down there. In the U.S. we have a fresh and plentiful supply of inexpensive energy ... and the folks that have chosen to remain in the workforce are more than willing to work.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#42
This was inevitable, but it still feels momentous: By one important measure, China's economy is now the biggest in the world, topping the United States.

Actually this probably happened 3-4 years ago, the Entity falsifies its data and skews the methods routinely.
Sodomia delenda est

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#43
Yak, It's possible to trade with chinese that you find on ali-baba, just not relying on ali-baba website interface alone. I bought from 3 suppliers for my small business. For a few thousands $ with one, and for 100$ with the two others. (LED and electrical components) With the first one I exchanged a few e-mail, looked at their website etc, then I decided to trust them after two weeks or so. With the others it went much faster because the amount was very small, but also a few e-mail exchange. Never talked by telephone.
I paid all of them them beforehand. They could have sent me nothing and steal my money, no way I could do anuthing in this case. But they didn't.
Excellent management, very commercial but professional, goods shiped quickely, no problem, no non-sens (just beware of "bank fees" and shipping costs for very small sums), responsive, ...and honest. Of course not all of them are honest, there must be some crooks, sometimes it looks fishy, but in all, I think in China they don't crook that often because if they get caught it's a severe punishment.

But from what I can tell, not a big experience but enough to tell, is that these people realy mean business. More than anybody else in the world.
I have contacted firms from several countries, usualy with no response because my orders were too small, but the Chinese were almost the only ones ready to do business. If others responded, it was with dragging feet.
This experience was enough to understand why China is #1. No way you get this level of responsiveness and busnessmanship and on-time client care and organisation with another country.
UK is absolutly terrible (and most of the time UK = China when you find them on the web), Belgium is ok bet sometimes sleepy (like "my colleague is on vacation, please call back in two weeks when she is back to work"), Germany, Czech, Slovakia and Poland are ok but no manufacture in Europe cares or want to care of orders less than one ton or 10,000 pieces or $20,000 in value. Russia will only sell by train loads. Usualy they don't have anything to export in semi-retail quantities and even if they do, you will wait ages and their price are not lower.

The fun with chinese middle persons who are or act as young girl is that they immediately flirt with you, starting e-mails like "Hello my dear friend, how are you today? I hope you are happy with our products..."
I think it works. But personaly it's very unprofessional, I mean it doesn;t look serious and you would want to discard their offers just for that. And my spam filter is customized to erase these type of e-mail so they are lucky if they do business with me -LOL-.

Also no other country than China has a website as popular and active as ali-Baba. But, jeez, this name also doesn't inspire trust... Chinese want it but they don't think about the best way to look serious. Asian irrationalism?
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#44
Fred,

Alibaba had to be treating somebody right to get where they are, but like I said, they are still probably facing headwinds from old farts like me and a lot of purchasing agents and managers. Too many Chinese vendors pissed in the pool for far to long. I'm glad you had a good experience, but for many, they are synonymous with the grey market ... somewhat similar to how many people feel about American made cars because of all the garbage that Detroit produced in the late 70s and 80s. I'm fairly certain they make a great product ... but my wife is so horrifically turned off she'll never own a Ford, Chevy or Dodge again ... I've brought it up and believe me, it's not worth the argument. The last lemon was a Pontiac and they don't even exist as a nameplate anymore.

IMF is playing games with their 'formulas'. Being able to buy a shirt more cheaply doesn't make up for what is by and large a crappy standard of living. Our poor are obese ... most have cell phones and internet access ... and generally at least one car. Their poor are a small step above North Korea.

We may not all be on board with global warming ... but I doubt you'd find a city like this in this country ...
[Image: china-polluted-chinese-city-smog.jpg]
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#45
I share your pain, mr_yak!

It is totally unacceptable that hard-working people of China suffer from this environmental damage while the sodomites, capable of producing nothing other than WMD, pornography and worthless dollar bills still have clean air.

Not for long, however. S2



In other news, New G7overcomes the original G7 in total economic value: $37t vs $34t now.
Sodomia delenda est

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#46
(10-08-2014, 11:44 PM)mv Wrote: I share your pain, mr_yak!

It is totally unacceptable that hard-working people of China suffer from this environmental damage while the sodomites, capable of producing nothing other than WMD, pornography and worthless dollar bills still have clean air.

Some things in this world are just not fair mv. For instance, a major motor sports milestone is getting completely ignored ... simply because of of some innocent military adventures and a few minor bumps in the road for the ruble. No respect! No respect at all!! S2

Quote:Organisers expect a crowd of about 55,000 on Sunday, most of them from within Russia.

Wow!! ... international popularity rivaling that of a college football game ... impressive!! S5

Regarding the Chinese, imagine the epic unfairness of suffering all that poisonous bullshit in the air and water ... only to watch the whole thing crumble and collapse ... then it's back to the (collective) farm ... with nothing so show for your trouble but a few magic beans ... S4 ... bummer.

You missed a data point regarding the debt vs GDP issue. Not horrible compared to Europe and the U.S. ... but it's dependent on a near double digit growth rate ... which looks increasingly unlikely in the near term. No world economy is capable of perpetual boom ... for China though, the consequences of 'bust'? ... anybody's guess ... could be the kind of "ground breaking" event that looks a lot like an open grave.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#47
Regarding the Chinese data point:
(1) It is not me who missed it, but the authors of the article I linked.
(2) Actually, 250% is horrible (higher than Europe/US)... but I don't know what is true and what is not anymore. China also has currency/gold reserves of $4t or $5t. The debt seems to be primarily local government debt (not the central government), and again there is an uncertainty on how it matters? Many US cities have huge debt too, do we count it?
Possibly this is of interest to you: How to fix China debt woes.

Anyway, do you have a take on the concept of subtracting *national* debt from GDP?
Sodomia delenda est

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#48
From the last article posted here, the 250% of GDP debt ratio for China includes governement, local, industrial and private debts, that means all debts present in the country.

Most of the risks, solvency issues and scandals come from the real estate sector.
Haven't we seen that before?

But most of the new debt has been local governement debts.

They just need to continue building their First Class Navy a little bit more and their economy will be a perfect copy of the US economy.
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#49
(10-12-2014, 01:01 PM)mv Wrote: The debt seems to be primarily local government debt (not the central government), and again there is an uncertainty on how it matters? Many US cities have huge debt too, do we count it?

Yes, primarily municipal debt, regional debt and debt from rickety state and private corporations ... as mentioned by fred, lots of debt from over valued real estate. The scale of the recent bail outs are a bit of an anomaly for the U.S. ... the problem for China is that the state guarantees are implicit and generally not supported by bond holding chumps. Yes, U.S. cities have debt problems, but note Detroit as an example. It could occur, but so far the feds haven't come to the rescue. They're dealing with bad municipal debt the old fashioned way, by f*#king over the bond holders (aka private f*#kees) ... and a few token efforts like city pension concessions and turning off the water for people who have no intention of every paying their bills. In this case the Chinese government IS the the primary guarantor and bond holder (aka collective public f*#kees). I would figure for the really huge messes you'll probably see some arrests and maybe a public execution or two. Sends a message for future mess makers ... but does little to clean up the current one.

The world is in a funk. People in most western countries are cutting back on consumer spending (regardless of the rosy BLS BS number twisting). China was on the verge of turning itself into an actual self-driven consumer economy ... but instead people are stuffing the cash back into their mattresses like always ... that and buying gold ... kind of a strange contrast to the West ... and certainly not a harbinger of the kind of investment needed to maintain a GDP on steroids.

I noted the the theme "remove government accountability for financial and non-financial firm failures" in the above linked article. They're getting the idea ... put the target on the backs of private investors ... like the debt holders that got screwed in the GM bailout. The main problem with that is that although there is a seemingly endless supply of suckers in the world ... you can't always depend on them to fully cooperate. Then there is the problem of the crook to sucker ratio. Too many of the former and too few of the latter is a serious barrier to any semblance of a market economy. S5
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#50
I'm not aware of any central government debt, and
Quote:the problem for China is that the state guarantees are implicit
not sure if there are any actual guarantees at all. And yes, if some municipality in China goes bankrupt, a few people will get executed... but this does not directly affect the country.

Again, I'm unsure how to look at the non-central-government debt for any country... perhaps ignore?

From the same Awara link I gave on the other thread, here is private debt:

[Image: gdp_chart9.png]

[Image: gdp_chart10.png]

Honestly no understanding on my part.... I do see that something is rotten in the state of Denmark, but we knew this for hundreds of years.....



Yet again, I'd rather only consider GDP vs Gummint debt, if you add more factors, it will make it impossible to understand the picture.
Sodomia delenda est

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#51
“Contingent” liabilities are still liabilities mv ... and when things go south, they end up squarely in the lap of the central government. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are not explicitly "tallied up" in the U.S.s $18 Trillion debt ... but who exactly do you suppose is accountable for those extended costs? Accounting chicanery is a world wide issue. It's tolerable under a robust economy ... but when things go tits up, debt becomes a very real problem ... mostly because you can't get access to more debt. In light of China's meteoric economic growth, the critical question becomes ... what will a Chinese recession really look like?

Even with the more recent moves to "remove government accountability", China is still ultimately on the hook.

Quote: ... bonds are considered semi-sovereign debt in China and thus ultimately guaranteed against default by the central government.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#52
mv Wrote:Honestly no understanding on my part.... I do see that something is rotten in the state of Denmark, but we knew this for hundreds of years.....
Danmark is a socialist redistributionist country where 80% of your salary is taken in taxes and everybody gets some compensation in return, includin those who pay taxes. The system works thanks to smoe magical corruption no-no in their culture... bet that may also explain why Danes need to borrow more than others.
Maybe their debt are tax-deductible?

Y Wrote:Even with the more recent moves to "remove government accountability", China is still ultimately on the hook.
In case of an economic rash, the Chinese central governement will have to tap in their foreign reserve, print money and/or borrow themselves to bail the entire economy.
They won;t have any other choice. Nothing is Too Big To Bail Out even in China.

Y Wrote:Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are not explicitly "tallied up" in the U.S.s $18 Trillion debt ...
Some estimates put the total liabilities including those at $60T (must be over $70T by now as time passes by).
Y Wrote:but who exactly do you suppose is accountable for those extended costs?
S2
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#53
(10-13-2014, 06:16 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: In case of an economic rash, the Chinese central governement will have to tap in their foreign reserve, print money and/or borrow themselves to bail the entire economy.
They won;t have any other choice. Nothing is Too Big To Bail Out even in China.

China pumping like the Fed? I don't think so. Unlike the U.S., China doesn't have to take 'extraordinary' measures to 'manufacture' inflation. It's already occurring spontaneously ... the recent contraction has kept it in check lately ... but if goods begin to get scarce ... who knows? They'd have trouble borrowing too ... internally, the money is flowing back to the mattress ... and if shortages occur, it will go for food, not investment. Who else did you have in mind to bail them out Fred? They have a large pile of foreign currency ... and I think they are currently the world's largest producer of gold ... also one of the largest consumers. The public stuff can be sold for dry goods ... the private is stuffed in mattresses as well ... or in private vaults ... some of it stored offshore. It might be possible to liquidate, but in general it's a 'sink' of value ... that's why people like Paul Krugman hate it so much. In his mind, wealth should flutter about like a butterfly ... not lie around retaining 'value' like a (shiny) brick. Their main problem with an "economic rash" is that it would morph into a nasty "social rash" at lightening speed. A 'recession' in their current system is probably an economic growth rate under 5%. I think they might possibly have over estimated their capacity to weather a storm ... or are operating the delusion that one can never occur. Perhaps plan B is something like the Occupy Wall Street people had in mind? ... only in this case "eat the rich" is probably a literal statement. S24
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
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#54
Here is one more thing that China(PRC) is hands down The number one:

China kills millions of innocent meditators for their organs, report finds.  Experts estimate between 60,000 and 100,000 prisoners of conscience are executed annually

Quote:The Chinese government continues to illegally harvest organs from millions of its innocent prisoners despite saying it had ended the practice two years ago, a decade-long study has alleged.

Experts estimate between 60,000 and 100,000 prisoners of conscience are executed annually and have their hearts, livers and other organs removed to use for transplants.

In all, approximately 1.5 million have had their organs removed at 712 liver and kidney transplant centres across China since 2000, with over 300,000 of those taking place at unregulated centres.

The report also found many surgeons had simply “lost count” of the quantity of transplants they had been asked to perform on a daily basis, with some having undertaken as many as six liver removals in one day.

The findings were published in an updated version of the 2007 study ‘Bloody Harvest: Revised Report into Allegations of Organ Harvesting of Falun Gong Practitioners in China’.

Falun Gong is a unique form of meditative practice established in 1992 and the Chinese government has fought to eradicate it for decades.
---------
“That increased discrepancy leads us to conclude that there has been a far larger slaughter of practitioners of Falun Gong for their organs than we had originally estimated.

“The ultimate conclusion is that the Chinese Communist Party has engaged the state in the mass killings of innocents.”

Falun Gong practitioners were forced to undergo medical tests before their results were put on a database of living organ sources so quick organ matches could be made, the authors claim.

In response to the report, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a press conference: “I want to say that such stories about forced organ harvesting in China are imaginary and baseless — they don’t have any factual foundation.”

In 2014, China announced that it would end the harvesting of organs from executed prisoners and move to a voluntary donation-based system.

Last year Amnesty International confirmed China remains the world’s largest executioner of prisoners in the charity’s annual report.

I'm sure the question is, "If they do it to Falun Gong[/url], why don't they do it to their problematic Christian numbers which are growing so huge?    Could it be because [i]Falun Gong is a local group, and Christians are a world wide organization which would draw immense attention to their actions?  

Regardless who is the target of organ harvesting, its definitely "disgusting" and should draw outrage from everyone of conscience.  

This is precisely why PRC is eventually doomed, and will be broken up into smaller parts.  It cannot stand the light of truth shining on them.[/i]

China is #1 Stop Organ Harvesting

Killed for Organs: China's Secret State Transplant Business


___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#55
Falung Gong is an anti-establishement organisation, on top of being a sect. As long as christians don't propagate against the PRC governement they don't risk anything.
Christians are in China since the 16th Century.
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#56
(07-03-2016, 12:57 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: Falung Gong is an anti-establishement organisation, on top of being a sect. As long as christians don't propagate against the PRC governement they don't risk anything.
Christians are in China since the 16th Century.

Yeah, but Christianity is reproducing like fleas in China. It will soon be the country with the most Christians, in the world. The more they grow, the more they will viewed as a dire threat to their 'so called' Communist leadership.

I have a thread about that very thing. Did you miss it?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#57
Fred,

There is strong oral tradition that Thomas reached and died in India in his day, so it's reasonable to think some Chinese believed in Christ in that era. Records indicate the 7th century:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_the_Apostle
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#58
Here is just one of countless examples as to why China is its own worst enemy, and why their rise is covering up huge problems.  

click to enlarge
   
Football: Heavy rain turns stadium into 'bathtub'
Uninterrupted rainfall has caused a football stadium to flood so much the goalposts are
under water and it now looks like nothing more than a giant swimming pool.


Just a simple thing like proper drainage. They cut corners like there is no tomorrow.  What matters most is appearances, not quality.  Its the way Collectivists look at "How things are Done".  

Now consider, do you think their military hardware/equipment is any different?   How about their new navy?  Or better yet, how about their economy real structure that doesn't see the light of scrutiny?  PRC is just one huge hollow shell that is waiting to be subdivided in the future.  They're just too big, too corrupt, too inefficient, and just to unwieldy.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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