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Spengler on Islamic Demography
#1
A two-part article in Asia Times should be of interest to this forum.

CRISIS OF FAITH IN THE MUSLIM WORLD
PART 1: Statistical evidence


CRISIS OF FAITH IN THE MUSLIM WORLD
PART 2: The Islamist response


My 2C: Spengler is probably right, but the trends he points out (coming disentegration of the Islamic world) will come into play slow; Europe will fall first.
Sodomia Delenda Est

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#2
I don't think that literacy or crisis of faith are the main causes of low birth rates.
Quote:Most western industrialized nations began to undergo a demographic transition after the Industrial Revolution. Now evidence indicates that most developing nations are undergoing a similar transition.
According to this only industrialization is responsible for low fertility. Literacy and "crises of faith" are subjected to this main cause.
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#3
Spengler uses many sources for his conclusions that may or may not be apt. Like Harri Seldon's Psychohistory, it is a complex equation and hasn't been proven.

The failure of the religion is not because modern Muslim women learn to read and don't have babies enough to provide for a huge elderly Muslim population. As Robert Ehrlich proposed - the solution to that is self-fulfilling. In any culture, when the elderly "baby boomer"-types overwhelm the productive few - either the elderly die off or the culture mortgages its future to provide for them. Either way, once the pressure is off, the pressure reverses and the situation improves.

I say the problem is part and parcel with the religion itself. The Koran demands antipathy to other religions...yet other religions result in more successful cultures. Islam rejected "infidel" technological advance, and suffered in response. For this to change, the "unchanging" religion must change. As far as Islam is concerned, its tenets can't be bent - only broken. As they break, Islam ceases to exist.

As Islam accepts input from other "infidel" cultures (which it must in order to survive), it will blend with these cultures and become something other than what it is. Since we see by history that Free enterprise will win out economically, and that contract law will trump Shia law - Shia law will disintegrate on its own. Watch and see if Islam doesn't redefine itself into a more practical and survivable thing.

How can this happen? Many ways. Yes, Islam is based on being unchangeable - so a charismatic Caliph could easily proclaim the Koran successfully over, and then start a new age with new tenets.
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#4
William,

I see it your way,reality bites and they'll change to survive. Obviously,men like Bin Laden are not what they want as the leaders over them.

Although I think Islam is different than Christianity in more than theology. I think Islam is actually a sort of concensus based faith,what the concensus of Imam or Ayatollah DECIDE Mohammad meant is what Mohammad meant.

On the other hand,as I see my faith,I could care less what a concensus of Christian leaders think or claim Paul meant when he penned say Romans 812,I think it means what it states as exegetted in the initial Greek and nothing more or less.

But,I don't represent all Christendom and I assume a counter debate would be much of Christendom DOES operate off of concensus of understanding of elders.
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#5
Just a perhaps "side" thought. A crisis of faith in pure human terms might mean no interest in birthing and propelling our "posterity" down through the generations.

I've talked with a lot of young parents while conducting our business. Most of them look forward to watching their children engage a meaningful future, even with the help of prosthetic rehab mixed in the equation.

May God bless each one of them.

The problem in my mind...among Europeans as well as many Muslims...is that they "smell" a future with no hope for a meaningful life for their offspring...and now a means of curtailing that empty future. Americans are not immune to that existential vacuum, witness our drug problems.

My primary philisophical mentor is a Jewish fellow, (now passed), named Victor Frankl. I did my Thesis on his work.
His little book entitled "MAN'S SEARCH FOR MEANING" (intended for laymen) carefully outlines his philosophy/psychology, and may be found in most decent bookstores.
His primary thrust is that every mature adult needs an adequate "why"... and that we cannot "invent & actualize" an adequate meaning for our lives.

He states that our search must be for the meaning CONFRONTING OUR LIVES.
I HIGHLY COMMEND THE LITTLE BOOK.
Best regards
KenBean
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#6
Quote:The ten countries which will contribute most to world population growth over the next 30 years are India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Indonesia, United States of America, Bangladesh, Zaire, and Iran - in that order
Let's take Iran. Population growth rate: 0.86% (2005 est.). Graph of pop growth in the last 5 years. Agriculture 30%, industry 25%, services 45%.What would you say about this?
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#7
Let's take Pakistan.
[Image: pakistan1.gif][Image: pakistan2.gif]
What is industrialization? Industrialization=urbanization=decrease of rural population. What the crisis of faith has to do with all this?
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#8
Indonesia[Image: indonesia1.gif][Image: indonesia2.gif]
1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025
Rural population growth rate (%) 0.53 0.10 -0.06 -0.27 -0.48 -0.44 -0.36 -0.47
Urban population growth rate (%) 4.91 4.48 4.01 3.44 2.83 2.43 2.04 1.85
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#9
And the last nail in the coffin.*knock on wood* Wink1 Population growth in the USSR.
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#10
Quote:What the crisis of faith has to do with all this?

There is an indirect correlation: generally, urban population is less religious than rural. (There are obvious exceptions;one is the urban ghettos, like in France today.). Of course, urban population is also likely to produce fewer children (again, French ghettos are obvious exceptions).
Sodomia Delenda Est

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#11
Wait guys,isn't Saudi Arabia still experiencing high live birth rates? They are both religious people and wealthy.
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