Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Kalifornia Leading The Way Over The Cliff
#41
(03-30-2013, 11:31 PM)WmLambert Wrote:
(03-30-2013, 05:05 PM)mr_yak Wrote: Jerry Brown believes his state's budget is 'balanced'. This is mostly based on the (near religious) belief that higher tax rates automatically translates into more revenue. The theory will be tested over the next year or so ... the timing should roughly coincide with the mid-term election...

The Keynesian sleight-of-hand works politically but not economically. The definitions of Keynesian language cooked into the economy makes the books balance in black and white - but no metrics are applied at all. Since there are no real-world measurements, the accounting zeros out but the imbalance still exits.

I think this is a lot simpler than Keynes. Brown can't print money. He has no control over 'monetary' policy. I'm taking a shot at his fantasy fiscal policy. It's some comfort that California has come up with an actual 'budget'. 'Projections' of revenue and a plan for spending. That's way the hell ahead of the federal government so far ... but "projecting" revenue is not exactly the same thing as actually collecting it. It's a nice story ... which will work for about a year or so. And if it turns out to be a pipe dream, that will translate into a very interesting narrative as we enter the '14 silly season. What a fun story ... I'm in a state where 'rats are passing legislation that is going to drive hundreds of million's into other state's coffers. That's a drop in the bucket compared to what California is doing to itself ... cold comfort ... but I guess it's better than none at all.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#42
It's not about printing money. Even if you printed some it could be counted and put in the till. The Keynesian definition of tax as revenue means that simply passing a tax automatically balances the books. Too bad that after the tax kicks in and produces a lowering of revenue, the Keynesians still don't admit the failure - but apply new metrics that call for still higher taxes, with still lower revenue the following year.
Reply
#43
Information 
A shoe drops:
Stockton goes into bankruptcy

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me...9388.story

It will be interesting to see who gets the shaft: the unions or the creditors.

More shoes to follow evidently
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
Reply
#44
(03-31-2013, 08:47 PM)WmLambert Wrote: It's not about printing money. Even if you printed some it could be counted and put in the till. The Keynesian definition of tax as revenue means that simply passing a tax automatically balances the books. Too bad that after the tax kicks in and produces a lowering of revenue, the Keynesians still don't admit the failure - but apply new metrics that call for still higher taxes, with still lower revenue the following year.

I don't think Keynes himself would agree. Matter of fact I think Keynes is probably spinning in his grave over all the imbeciles that like to call themselves Keynesians ... Paul Krugman alone is probably worth some major RPM. Stick a magnet up his boney ass, wrap copper coils around him and he'd probably be able to power Minneapolis. (Keynes of course ... not Krugman ... but then again ?? might be worth a try ...)
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#45
(04-02-2013, 05:14 PM)jt Wrote: A shoe drops:
Stockton goes into bankruptcy

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me...9388.story

It will be interesting to see who gets the shaft: the unions or the creditors.

Why would you possibly expect the union (pension) to get the shaft?? Pension funds aren't in the same league as lowly creditors not even ... they are a super-class ... they are protected by layers ... strata even of judicial kevlar built in to Kali state law. The judge in your link lambasted creditors for "acting in bad faith" by not paying their "fair share" of legal costs for the privilege of negotiating pennies on the dollar for their property. It almost sounds like they are under threat of being sued for having the audacity to try to recover any portion what was supposed to be their own 'assets'.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#46
(04-02-2013, 11:25 PM)mr_yak Wrote:
(03-31-2013, 08:47 PM)WmLambert Wrote: It's not about printing money. Even if you printed some it could be counted and put in the till. The Keynesian definition of tax as revenue means that simply passing a tax automatically balances the books. Too bad that after the tax kicks in and produces a lowering of revenue, the Keynesians still don't admit the failure - but apply new metrics that call for still higher taxes, with still lower revenue the following year.

I don't think Keynes himself would agree. Matter of fact I think Keynes is probably spinning in his grave over all the imbeciles that like to call themselves Keynesians ... Paul Krugman alone is probably worth some major RPM. Stick a magnet up his boney ass, wrap copper coils around him and he'd probably be able to power Minneapolis. (Keynes of course ... not Krugman ... but then again ?? might be worth a try ...)

Basically you are right. Keynes would be appalled today if he came back and read the Ferret, and others. And he was in the process of changing his thinking back to the Classical Side at the time of his death. True Believers don't wish to talk about that, for obvious reasons. S5

But unfortunately, he is now a cult figure within the Church of Keynes, and there is no turning back anymore. The only way he can be even partially rehabilitated is for the current cult to collapse and later have one or more experts revisit him in the future, with some real honesty.

Bill is referring to 'Static Forecasting', and lumping it together with the Church of Keynes. And this group really do believe in using 'static forecasting', because it requires less 'mental friction'. But also, it dovetails neatly with their devotion to Collectivism. In fact, the Keynesian Superstition and Collectivism are now joined at the hip, and much more difficult to kill. But if one is killed, it is only a matter of time with the other.

But I am just parroting what you already know, right? Sorry. S5
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#47
(04-02-2013, 11:47 PM)mr_yak Wrote:
(04-02-2013, 05:14 PM)jt Wrote: A shoe drops:
Stockton goes into bankruptcy

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me...9388.story

It will be interesting to see who gets the shaft: the unions or the creditors.

Why would you possibly expect the union (pension) to get the shaft?? Pension funds aren't in the same league as lowly creditors not even ... they are a super-class ... they are protected by layers ... strata even of judicial kevlar built in to Kali state law. The judge in your link lambasted creditors for "acting in bad faith" by not paying their "fair share" of legal costs for the privilege of negotiating pennies on the dollar for their property. It almost sounds like they are under threat of being sued for having the audacity to try to recover any portion what was supposed to be their own 'assets'.

My thinking as well Jack.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#48
(04-02-2013, 11:47 PM)mr_yak Wrote: ...Why would you possibly expect the union (pension) to get the shaft??

Because history proves it is part of the Democrat template. Economics are run by Politicians.

When GM was verging on simple bankruptcy, and their business model would have been examined and readjusted, and like most companies, come through stronger and more viable - the politicians stepped in and invented a pseudo-bankruptcy power, which it is arguable that they have, and selected who would benefit from their action and who would pay for it.

The pro-Obama UAW benefited. The second and third tier suppliers paid for it. Taken as a group, the suppliers are a bigger entity than GM. The government ignored the bankruptcy standards that always pay off the best claimants first - and just roadblocked these companies from their rightful recompense. Delphi and other companies had unions, too - but they were not as equal as other unions. The Delphi pension fund was liquidated and used to shore up the unwieldy UAW benefits - which would have been addressed by a competent bankruptcy proceeding. As it was, not only did the rodents get all the cheese - but the UAW got ownership of the company.

Not only did the suppliers pay for it - but those same politicians used the quasi-legal action to punish anyone not on board with the Obama campaign. Dealerships are the means by which customers purchase the GM vehicles, but Obama and crew decided fewer opportunities to sell would somehow benefit the mother ship. Some of the nation's top selling dealerships were closed. Those with poor records - but strong donations to the Obama campaign - stayed open. Realize that dealerships are profitable via their repair and maintenance side - not just sales. Many good dealerships just pass through the cost of vehicles to the mothership and make do with service. They would not have been a drag on the GM business plan at all - but were forced to close, anyway, if they were owned by conservatives.

In the greater metropolitan Detroit area, I heard the interviews with these owners and heard the anguish they expressed as they were forced to let their employees go. All those highly skilled workers went on the expanding unemployment roles, because there were no dealerships left to hire them. It didn't matter whether these were union or not - they weren't the RIGHT union.
Reply
#49
Granted that the unions are well protected, and they may be protected judicially. However, what will happen to interest rates for cities in CA wanting to borrow money if the creditors are wiped out? If a judge asks this question, the decision could be different. If not, the union victory is likely Pyhrric. Not that I care, since CA is a study in how not to run a state.

Another amusement to watch.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
Reply
#50
Has anyone read this piece from the WSJ: California's Coming Green-Outs? If there was ever a reason for the state being in the terrible state it is in, this highlights it very well. (can't get it to connect to the home site, so I linked from another place.)

And what's worse is that "The One" is trying to bring it to the remaining 49 states. Imagine that?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#51
Here's a report, from those Evil Libertarian Wackos, at Reason: California High Speed Rail Falls Short of Expectations. The high speed rail system is a genuine Lose-Lose proposition. And yet Kalifornia is hell bent on wasting the money on all this.

Various proposals have envisioned a high speed rail system that spans the United States. In California, the California High-Speed Rail Authority has already begun implementing its decades-old plan to connect Northern California with Southern California. However, the rail system would lose more than $100 million per year, say Joseph Vranich, Wendell Cox and Adrian Moore in a new study for the Reason Foundation.
- Vranich, Cox and Moore estimate that the high speed rail system would result in losses of $124 million to $373 million a year.
- Voters approved the system in 2008 after being promised that a bullet train would transport passengers from Los Angeles to San Francisco in two hours and 40 minutes.
- The study finds that the system's fastest non-stop trip would take almost four hours and most trips would take closer to five hours.

The Rail Authority would share tracks with freight trains in some locations, which would limit speeds to 100 to 150 miles an hour but would make up for those lower speeds by traveling at 220 miles per hour, a speed that no train in the world is capable of traveling at.
- Voters were also promised that tickets would cost about $50 per person but tickets are now expected to cost $81.
- Increased travel times and ticket prices will affect ridership, which the Rail Authority has already downgraded.
- In 2008, ridership was estimated between 65.5 million and 117 million riders in 2035 but now it predicts ridership between 19.6 million and 31.8 million riders in 2035.
- Even if California's high speed rail system equaled European ridership levels, the system would hit just 7.6 million rides a year.
- Thus, ridership in 2035 is likely to be 65 percent to 77 percent lower than currently projected.

The lower ridership and increased travel times and ticket prices mean that the California high speed rail system will not be delivered at the cost promised to taxpayers and will not generate the profits taxpayers expected.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#52
When I asked people why they voted for this they said "Because it'd be neat!"

Math and pissing money away didn't even enter into their thoughts. This is why pure, unlimited democracy doesn't work. People are stupid enough with their own money but criminal when it's someone else's.
Reply
#53
"P", I can well remember one of the most influential works of fiction that any young person could have been fortunate to read. And it has always influenced my thinking ever since. It was "Starship Troopers", by Robert Heinlein. The theme of future airborne warfare among the stars was interesting, but by far the most important lesson was Heinlein's concepts of how his ideal society would operate.

And within it, perhaps the most important ingredient was what he termed the "Franchised Democracy". Not sure if you are familiar with this book, but if you haven't read it, I cannot recommend it enough. The point is that local elections don't require an earned franchise, but for the national/global elections, the ones that determine how humanity is to be governed, participants must put something of value into the system before they can enjoy the benefits of helping determine the direction of that society.

I've always been a huge proponent of this thinking. And what you are describing in California is exactly what you get when the voters are not required to shoulder the responsibility for that very system . Its like a house. The owner will always take better care of it than any renter. After all, its his/her responsibility.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#54
I've read most of the works of RAH, though anything he wrote before he met Virginia is... well just not as good. And yes, Starship Troopers is one of his best books. (Never judge a book by its movie)

I think that a Franchise based on military service would run into the same problems that we have now. People would still vote to spend money that we don't have on things we don't need. They do it in their personal lives; they do it in their public lives. What we need is strict constitutional regulations on government to prevent such rampant fiscal irresponsibility.

- On the local level I would start with a 70% majority required to pass bond measures. And 70% might still be too low because bond measures always pass.

- On the state and federal levels require 2/3s vote of both houses to spend money on anything.

I would also add following Amendments to the constitution to prevent the purchasing of votes via pork.

1> All bills must cite its constitutional authority. (This requirement has been proposed and shot down over 100 times just so you know how much they fear it)
2> The judiciary shall review each new law with a jaded eye to confirm that the entirety of the bill is constitutional. Severabilty shall not be allowed.
3> The entirety of every bill shall be read aloud in both houses. Roll shall be checked and no one who does not attend the entire reading shall not be allowed a vote. If a quorum does not exist, a vote may not be taken.
4> Neither the commerce, nor general welfare clauses, nor the 16th amendment shall be construed to be carte blanc. Any bill citing these qualify for extra judicial scrutiny. The Judiciary is required to find such laws unconstitutional if they are found lacking a desperate, pressing state interest.

I'm not a big fan of spending bills.
Reply
#55
"P", remember that the military was just one avenue to earning a franchise. That part was part of the theme of the novel, so it was the main one covered. But the basic point was that if you want to enjoy the perks of something, you must first be willing to sacrifice something to earn that perk.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#56
And yet it's pointed out specifically that those who have earned the franchise aren't any wiser than the general populous.
Reply
#57
Don't recall that part, unless it was stated by one of the gang members. Been a long time now.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#58
Yeah, go back and re-read Jubal's discussions in Stranger In a Strange Land. Anything that Heinlein didn't cover fully in Starship Troopers was explained there.

The main premise is that citizenship is not a right - it must be earned; and only those willing to work hard for that privilege should have any say in it. Anyone can enjoy the blessings of living here, but participating in taking is not enough.

Several things stick out in SIASL. Smith never understood humor until the middle-sized monkey beat up the littlest monkey after being beat on by the biggest monkey. He suddenly realized humor was simply getting by in a world of hurt - and minimizing misery by embracing it. Another thing was understanding what you really know. What color is that house on the hill? It's white - on this side.
Reply
#59
Here's a ray of hope for Kalifornia: CA High Speed Rail Collapsing under Strain of Corruption. This is great news for fiscal sobriety.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#60
Eh, I don't expect that to happen. Remember, California is going to be about the same as Mexico soon (demographics). Do you expect too much in N. Mexico to run right? I don't think so.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)