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Japan China Confrontation? Japan's Navy Growing
#41
The limit is largely fiction, Japan actually has a functional military... the main reason for an official cancellation of the constitutional limits would be to go nuclear....
Sodomia delenda est

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#42
I get that, which was my point. Japan may have a modern and functional military, but is it capable of negating the Chinese?

They should have nukes.

I honestly want to see Banzai charges with swords vs human waves of ant people.
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#43
U.S. vows to defend Japan if conflict erupts in East China Sea.

Quote:Washington – Secretary of State John Kerry vowed Friday that the United States would defend Japan against attack, even in conflicts involving islands claimed by China and Taiwan, as tensions continue to boil between the Asian powers.
.

If the Japanese are smart they know that Kerry just promised to nuke Japan in case of any tensions with China.... nothing personal, this is just how Kerry is.
Sodomia delenda est

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#44
Yeah, I'm sure they are totally reassured now. S13

When this is all over, Ship of Fools should take on a whole new meaning altogether.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#45
Hi, JohnL, let me write a little about how we see the situation in Japan, and as I am here in Tokyo since over 30 years, my opinion might be somewhat biased when facing China.

Many Japanese see the Chinese government merely as a braggart and a bully and not as a dangerous threat. Japan is not defenseless, we have the Coastguard, about 13000 people with 460 ships and 75 aircrafts, and of course also the Navy with 46000 people, 115 ships and about 340 aircraft, there is the Airforce with 45000 people and 770 airplanes, and finally we have the Ground Force with about 150000 people + 30000 reserve with about 5000 various vehicles and about 500 small aircrafts. Not so much, but also not so little. China cannot enter Japan overnight and nobody says a word about it.

So far China is only trying to provoke Japan, sometimes several times a day, entering Japanese airspace or Japanese waters, but so far as I know all these Chinese aircrafts and ships were intercepted quickly and they all were turning away when facing the Japanese planes and ships.

The Japanese military has a fairly good standard and good maintenance. There will be also more large ships built in the near future, and also additional radar stations will be constructed to know better what is going on along the Chinese border.

About the US-Army in Japan, I do not expect them ever to be in combat with the Chinese, despite the Japanese government pays 80 percent of their expenses, like salaries for US-servicemen, fuel etc. - The Japanese military is strong enough to stop China to move into Japanese territory.

Japan however expects USA to offer its political support and quick supply of military equipment in case of a dispute with China and I am sure USA will do that.

The situation is much more difficult for others like South Korea with its never ending North Korea standoff, or Philippines - it's a poverty place, this country cannot defend itself, or Vietnam, these people are good fighters, but its a small country, poor and corrupt and only with a few friends because of its Soviet-style communist government.
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#46
(05-19-2014, 11:59 AM)yohan Wrote: Japan is not defenseless, we have the Coastguard, about 13000 people with 460 ships and 75 aircrafts, and of course also the Navy with 46000 people, 115 ships and about 340 aircraft, there is the Airforce with 45000 people and 770 airplanes, and finally we have the Ground Force with about 150000 people + 30000 reserve with about 5000 various vehicles and about 500 small aircrafts.

Johan, I want to highlight the above excerpt from your post and point out that several US administrative agencies may be approaching the military capability of today's Japan.

On a serious note: I agree with you on your evaluation of China & North Korea.
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#47
The Chinese government, just my opinion, is acting somehow like a squatter. Moving around, looking around and when they find some land with no people on it, usually small islands, they quickly settle down and claiming 'this is mine'.

There are even Chinese studies existing how to claim Okinawa or to claim small islands far south of Vietnam and further to claim almost the entire ocean between those islands and Hainan.

China claims even a small rock in the sea near South Korea, or some shoals a few miles away from the Philippine islands.

It's ridiculous and this squatter-like behavior must be stopped.

In Japan we have no problem with that, but what about the others, there are Chinese claims as far as up to Indonesia.

Japan and USA cannot take care of everybody, but I can imagine in near future some better co-operation with nearby Philippines. In Philippines they have really nothing for defense. The country is also unable to pay for it. I think Japan can help a little.

In Japan there is plenty of somewhat outdated military - mostly navy related - stuff, something like older smaller ships, simple weapons and why to scrap that if it can be still used in Philippines? Also plenty of clothings, food etc. for Asian-size soldiers are in depots in Japan and nobody needs that anymore. For Philippines it's better than nothing.

WWII finished long time ago, neither the young people in Japan nor in the Philippines have any connection to it anymore personally, most old people of that time are now dead or very old.

I also think, Japan should reduce its investment into production in China and move some projects over to Philippines. Plenty of work to do - islands are not connected to each other, jobless rate is around 60 percent for youth, food production is too low with plenty of children suffering of malnutrition etc. - everything is desolate in Philippines. - To take care of Philippines and help them to face China, by only opening again some former US-related military bases - this is not enough.
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#48
(05-19-2014, 12:53 PM)yohan Wrote: I also think, Japan should reduce its investment into production in China and move some projects over to Philippines. Plenty of work to do - islands are not connected to each other, jobless rate is around 60 percent for youth, food production is too low with plenty of children suffering of malnutrition etc. - everything is desolate in Philippines. - To take care of Philippines and help them to face China, by only opening again some former US-related military bases - this is not enough.

This is the common recipe in how Free Trade, and Supply/Damand, works naturally. As a more backward country raises its standard of living, their cost of production will allow for the capability of other more backward nations to offer a better deal to other demand nations. As a result, the demand nations will automatically move to the less costly countries and pull out of the more expensive countries. This enables the more expensive country to tool up for more sophisticated things, and the less costly countries will automatically start at the bottom of the Production Cycle.

Everyone benefits from this, everyone becomes more wealthy, and the Supply/Demand equation works best for everyone. Japan is the classic example of this. In the 50s, Japan started out producing the West's toys. Then they produced hand tools as they moved up the ladder. Then they moved into the audio/electronics industry, and automobiles. They are constantly moving up the IT ladder. Remember how Japan quit making tools, and suddenly Taiwan immediately replaced them making good tools cheaply?

The way to punish PRC is to interrupt their ability to gain markets for their next step up the production curve. If they are unable to gain customers, AND they have priced them out of their current level, they will feel the pinch for their cavalier actions. That is how to hurt them internally, and forment trouble between the leadership and the citizenry.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#49
(05-19-2014, 01:35 PM)John L Wrote:
(05-19-2014, 12:53 PM)yohan Wrote: I also think, Japan should reduce its investment into production in China and move some projects over to Philippines. Plenty of work to do - islands are not connected to each other, jobless rate is around 60 percent for youth, food production is too low with plenty of children suffering of malnutrition etc. - everything is desolate in Philippines. - To take care of Philippines and help them to face China, by only opening again some former US-related military bases - this is not enough.

This is the common recipe in how Free Trade, and Supply/Damand, works naturally. As a more backward

Yohan, My question to you is what specific investment & production in China by Japan are you referring?

Does production in the PRC benefit Japan due to proximity, low cost of energy and readily available mineral resources that perhaps cannot competitively be met by the Philippines?
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#50
Johan, to take my last statement further I am unaware of any trade barrier that would prohibit a Japanese manufacturing concern from investing in the Philippines as opposed to the PRC if it deemed it more profitable.
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#51
Quote:The situation is much more difficult for others like South Korea with its never ending North Korea standoff, or Philippines - it's a poverty place, this country cannot defend itself, or Vietnam, these people are good fighters, but its a small country, poor and corrupt and only with a few friends because of its Soviet-style communist government.

Let me suggest that the current episode is just a test and there will be likely more tests. Want to guess the target?

I suspect not Japan, and not South Korea -- China does not want to disrupt world trade yet. Not Taiwan, the strategy there is different. So: Philippines or perhaps Malaysia?
Sodomia delenda est

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#52
Philippines probably are the physically weakest foe.
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#53
The economic disparity in the PRC is massive.

The last few winters have been hard on the PRC. I can see one or two really hard winters driving the Northern & Western peasants into the cities and chaos erupting.
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#54
(05-19-2014, 02:09 PM)Paul In Sweden Wrote: Yohan, My question to you is what specific investment & production in China by Japan are you referring?
To understand the relationship between the PRC and Japan we have to refer to the Joint Communiqué of the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China 1972 followed by the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and the People's Republic of China, 日本国と中華人民共和国との間の平和友好条約, 1978.

The treaty was signed by Japan and China despite strong opposition from the Soviet Union and Taiwan.

Japan recognized the People's Republic of China as the sole government of China, which renounced any claim for war reparations from World War II in return of major investments from Japan. - This was the start of the present huge economic co-operation between Japan and China.

If you invest something into China it takes a long time to get some profit out in return. Japan cannot so easily 'disappear' from China. However China is quite clever and offers to Japanese investors so far fairly good conditions, it should be noticed that all Japanese citizens are visafree for China and every day there are plenty of airplanes linking all major Chinese and all major Japanese cities.

The Chinese government, as said before, is acting politically against Japan merely as a braggart, it knows well that any move-out on a large scale of Japanese companies will sent millions of jobless Chinese people in the streets.

It's not only about production of goods, it is about supermarket chains, hotels, construction of ports, airports, medical supplies etc. especially in cities along the coast.

China on the other side is willing to supply Japan with a lot of mining products for its electronic industry, presently even supplying coal as solid fuel to produce electricity as nuclear reactors in Japan because of the Fukushima disaster are still shut down.

Generally said, China politically and educationally seen from Japan is not very nice, truly a rude behavior, no thanks - but the economic/tourism etc. co-operation is working well.

Most Japanese do not believe in any major conflict between Japan and China, but it is important to keep a strong navy operating to make clear where is the borderline between these 2 countries.

If this is not done, China will just settle down like a squatter - see Philippines and Vietnam. If China finds out about islands with nobody living there - even islands far away from China - it is claiming 'this is all mine' and their mindset this includes even 1000s of square miles of water territory between those islands and the Chinese mainland claiming everything from fish to petroleum.

In Japan we know about this rude behavior, nothing really new about.
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#55
(05-19-2014, 02:09 PM)Paul In Sweden Wrote: Does production in the PRC benefit Japan due to proximity, low cost of energy and readily available mineral resources that perhaps cannot competitively be met by the Philippines?

About proximity, just see a map how near Fukuoka in Japan is to Shanghai in China, it's clearly nearer to China mainland than to Taiwan.

For sure, the influence of China cannot be ignored in Japan, it is not only about Philippines, but about many other countries around here in Southern/Eastern Asia, like Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia etc.

If you invest something abroad, there should be something in return to Japan - crude oil from Indonesia, food imports from Thailand, etc. but what can you expect from Philippines?

Quote:Johan, to take my last statement further I am unaware of any trade barrier that would prohibit a Japanese manufacturing concern from investing in the Philippines as opposed to the PRC if it deemed it more profitable.

There is no problem like that, but business in Philippines was aggressively promoted by South Koreans, who clearly outnumber now the Japanese everywhere, but at least in the area I know best, Cebu/Bohol/Leyte.

Philippines has a lot of problems like missing ports and airports, severe weather problems like flood, typhoons and earthquakes due to volcanic activity. High prices for land and rent due to corruption from about 100 family clans which own 80 percent of all Philippines. Plenty of unsafe areas due to subversive heavily armed Muslim and Communist groups. Street criminality, and kidnapping for ransom of foreigners and rich Filipinos is seen as a 'normal' part of daily life, food shortages, plenty of brown-out and black-outs of electricity, poverty, bad health of many Filipinos, almost 2 million street children and so on and so on.

Not so easy to invest in Philippines, a lot of problems.
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#56
(05-19-2014, 03:33 PM)mv Wrote: ...Want to guess the target?
I suspect not Japan, and not South Korea -- China does not want to disrupt world trade yet. Not Taiwan, the strategy there is different. So: Philippines or perhaps Malaysia?

Neither - nor. The target is to become the de-facto owner of the entire South and East China Sea, because of large resources in those water territories - everything from fish to petroleum can be found there.

1st step: occupy small islands where nobody is living near Philippines, South Korea etc. and try to construct quickly a military station on them.

China is claiming 'everything' along the coastlines of other countries around this part of the ocean - even some rocks (Sokotra Rock, South Korea)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socotra_Rock

This rock is only 150 km from South Korea away, but almost 300 km from the next Chinese island, but still China says this is mine. Totally un acceptable and ridiculous claim.


2nd step: bring in many fishing boats, drilling platforms etc. under the guard of the Chinese navy/coastguard and take out of the ocean as much as you can.
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#57
Remember, Japan is a densely populated island nation with virtually no natural resources. For generations, Japan has looked at nearby islands and sea beds where resources could be taken.

These places are valuable and are the main targets.
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#58
http://www.cfr.org/south-korea/south-kor...tes/p29447

While much is written about Japan/China, not so much is written about China/SouthKorea.

The link above is a little old, but a good article.

It's about the same, economically good with China, politically there are plenty of problems.

Some sentences from this article:

Quote:Trade between the two countries has increased approximately thirty-five times, from $6.37 billion in 1992 to $220.63 billion in 2011. Currently, China is South Korea's largest trading partner and South Korea is China's third largest.
.....
A series of bilateral conflicts and entanglements has served to increase South Korean discontent with China. These include:

tariff disputes arising from Chinese flooding of South Korean garlic markets in 2000

China's controversial claim to the ancient Korean kingdom of Koguryo in 2004

Chinese violence during the torch relay for the Beijing Olympic Games in 2008

the sinking of the Cheonan and the Yeonpyeong Island bombardment in 2010

Chinese fishermen's illegal fishing and the murder of a Korean coast guard in 2011

Chinese repatriation of North Korean defectors

potential disputes over Socotra Rock in 2012
.....
South Koreans feel apprehensive about China's growing influence. South Koreans are increasingly concerned that China's rise will be a source of instability. Along with North Korean security threats stemming from nuclear weapons and potential provocations, South Koreans rank the issues of China's continued rise, China's military modernization, and South Korea's increasing dependency on China's economy high on the list of potential security threats to South Korea in the mid- to long term.
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#59
It is now really important to do something against this Chinese bully and braggart.
I wonder how Taiwan will develope in future? Maybe preparing to become a new independent country?

http://news.yahoo.com/eying-china-japan-...59540.html

TOKYO (AP) — Japan's Defense Ministry on Friday requested money for F-35 stealth fighter jets as part of its biggest-ever budget to bolster its ability to defend remote southern islands, including ones also claimed by an increasingly assertive China.

Plans to buy P-1 surveillance aircraft and "Global Hawk" drones, as well as an Aegis radar-equipped destroyer, are also part of the 5 trillion yen ($48 billion) budget for the year beginning in April 2015, a 3.5 percent increase from the current year.

-----

http://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-spend-2-5-b...31379.html

Taipei (AFP) - Taiwan plans to spend Tw$74.8 billion ($2.5 billion) in the next nine years to acquire anti-missile systems to boost its aerial defences against China, a lawmaker and media said Saturday.

The defence ministry aims to purchase the locally-made Tien Kung 3 (Sky Bow 3) surface-to-air missile system between 2015 and 2024 to replace the ageing Hawk missile systems, said lawmaker Lin Yu-fang of the parliament's defence committee.

This will be the biggest procurement of domestically-made weapon systems in recent years, Lin said, citing a defence budget plan submitted to the parliament for approval on Friday.
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#60
It's not only about Japan and Taiwan, other countries are worried too. Unfortunately Indonesia and Malaysia are not so strong financially.

But if you take a map and look up the location of China and Indonesia, you have really to ask yourself, how can claim China anything there? Indonesia is far away from China, even south of Vietnam.

-----

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/2...WA20140825


Jakarta's foreign ministry insists there is no problem with China over the status of Natuna, but the Indonesian military has in recent months struck a more assertive tone.

In April, Indonesian armed forces chief Moeldoko accused China of including parts of Natuna within its so-called "Nine-Dash Line," the vague boundary used on Chinese maps to lay claim to about 90 percent of the South China Sea.
.....
There was no evidence of an Indonesian military build-up. Two small naval ships lay idle at the end of a nearby pier.
.....
"The Indonesian military really wants to defend the islands, but with what? How can they fight China?"
-----

Neighboring Malaysia has a more convincing blueprint to beef up its military presence in the South China Sea.
In October, Malaysia announced plans to build a navy base in Bintulu on Sarawak, the closest major town to the James Shoal, a submerged reef about 80 km (50 miles) off the coast of Malaysia's Sarawak claimed by Malaysia, China and Taiwan. Chinese warships conducted exercises nearby in 2013 and 2014.
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