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Are We Headed Into Another Little Ice Age?
#1
I know I have been talking about this for years now, but there isn't any dedicated thread to this future event.  And as I have contended, it is only a matter of time, and I can see the process already underway.  So, I'll start with a post I made on another thread first
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I saw a quotation last week about markets.  The point made was that downward moving markets are highly volatile, while upward ones are not.  It seems this is common with practically all things.  With climate/weather the same holds true, and we have history to show it.  As the planet cools, conditions are volatile as well.  

And this brings me to the actual article that has many climate scientists concerned about the next coming little ice age.  It has been quoted quite a bit, but here is the original, from the National Solar Observatory.  

Buzz, I hope you are going to read this, because it is stating exactly what I have been saying for several years now.  

Quote:WHAT'S DOWN WITH THE SUN?
MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED

A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).

As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.

The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces: http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."

Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun's 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun's magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715.

Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24.

"We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now," Hill explained, "but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all."

In the second paper, Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss (Earth's magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot.

Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.

Moving outward, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force's coronal research program at NSO's Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the "rush to the poles," the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun's faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO's 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot.

"A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun," Altrock explained. "Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun."

Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward.

"In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees," Altrock said. "Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we'll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23's magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case."

All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.

"If we are right," Hill concluded, "this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate."

In response to news inquiries and stories, Dr. Frank Hill issued a follow-up statement:

"We are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. We are predicting the behavior of the solar cycle. In my opinion, it is a huge leap from that to an abrupt global cooling, since the connections between solar activity and climate are still very poorly understood. My understanding is that current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C decrease from a Maunder-like minimum, too small for an ice age. It is unfortunate that the global warming/cooling studies have become so politically polarizing."

Please note the last paragraph.  The disclaimer is not there because they actually believe we will not be heading into another little ice age.  This is a disclaimer so they will not be burned at the academic stake for claiming just that.  But in private circles, you can bet your Ass that they are telling everyone just that, and with authority too.  

Now, look at this chart:

[Image: clip_image006_thumb1.jpg?w=530&h=318]

Not all charts exactly match each other, but they still tell a tale of the maximum Holocene Optimum being about eight thousand years ago, when the Sahara was not a desert, but a savanna, dotted with rivers and lakes.  The point is that we are slowly headed back toward the long slope downward, into the next round of the Pleistocene.  

We really need to be figuring out how we can stop the cooling and keep the planet warm.  Because if we can't, billions will die tragically as a result.
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"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
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#2
Here is a follow-up on the original announcement, by Don Easterbrook:THE DEMISE OF SUNSPOTS—DEEP COOLING AHEAD? no matter how much the AGW/Climate-Change folks may wish this to go away, it won't. right now, they are just ignoring it, hoping it will go away. It will be interesting to see how long it will take for them to finally 'get it'.

Quote:[Image: 21sunspots-1-6001.jpg]

THE DEMISE OF SUNSPOTS—DEEP COOLING AHEAD?

Don J. Easterbrook, Professor of Geology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA

The three studies released by NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network this week, predicting the virtual vanishing of sunspots for the next several decades and the possibility of a solar minimum similar to the Maunder Minimum, came as stunning news. According to Frank Hill

“the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”

The last time sunspots vanished from the sun for decades was during the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1700 AD was marked by drastic cooling of the climate and the maximum cold of the Little Ice Age.

What happened the last time sunspots disappeared?

Abundant physical evidence from the geologic past provides a record of former periods of global cooling. Geologic records provide clear evidence of past global cooling so we can use them to project global climate into the future—the past is the key to the future. So what can we learn from past sunspot history and climate change?

Galileo’s perfection of the telescope in 1609 allowed scientists to see sunspots for the first time. From 1610 A.D. to 1645 A.D., very few sunspots were seen, despite the fact that many scientists with telescopes were looking for them, and from 1645 to 1700 AD sunspots virtually disappeared from the sun (Fig. 1). During this interval of greatly reduced sunspot activity, known as the Maunder Minimum, global climates turned bitterly cold (the Little Ice Age), demonstrating a clear correspondence between sunspots and cool climate. After 1700 A.D., the number of observed sunspots increased sharply from nearly zero to more than 50 (Fig. 1) and the global climate warmed.

[Image: sunspot_demise_fig1.jpg]

FIGURE 1. Sunspots during the Maunder Minimum (modified from Eddy, 1976

The Maunder Minimum was not the beginning of The Little Ice Age—it actually began about 1300 AD—but it marked perhaps the bitterest part of the cooling. Temperatures dropped ~4º C (~7 º F) in ~20 years in mid-to high latitudes. The colder climate that ensued for several centuries was devastating. The population of Europe had become dependent on cereal grains as their main food supply during the Medieval Warm Period and when the colder climate, early snows, violent storms, and recurrent flooding swept Europe, massive crop failures occurred. Winters in Europe were bitterly cold, and summers were rainy and too cool for growing cereal crops, resulting in widespread famine and disease. About a third of the population of Europe perished.

Glaciers all over the world advanced and pack ice extended southward in the North Atlantic. Glaciers in the Alps advanced and overran farms and buried entire villages. The Thames River and canals and rivers of the Netherlands frequently froze over during the winter. New York Harbor froze in the winter of 1780 and people could walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing many harbors. The population of Iceland decreased by half and the Viking colonies in Greenland died out in the 1400s because they could no longer grow enough food there. In parts of China, warm weather crops that had been grown for centuries were abandoned. In North America, early European settlers experienced exceptionally severe winters.

So what can we learn from the Maunder? Perhaps most important is that the Earth’s climate is related to sunspots. The cause of this relationship is not understood, but it definitely exists. The second thing is that cooling of the climate during sunspot minima imposes great suffering on humans—global cooling is much more damaging than global warming.

Global cooling during other sunspot minima

The global cooling that occurred during the Maunder Minimum was neither the first nor the only such event. The Maunder was preceded by the Sporer Minimum (~1410–1540 A.D.) and the Wolf Minimum (~1290–1320 A.D.) and succeeded by the Daltong Minimum (1790–1830), the unnamed 1880–1915 minima, and the unnamed 1945–1977 Minima (Fig. 2). Each of these periods is characterized by low numbers of sunspots, cooler global climates, and changes in the rate of production of 14C and 10Be in the upper atmosphere. As shown in Fig. 2, each minimum was a time of global cooling, recorded in the advance of alpine glaciers.

[Image: sunspot_demise_fig2.jpg]

Figure 2. Correspondence of cold periods and solar minima from 1500 to 2000 AD. Each of the five solar minima was a time of sharply reduced global temperatures (blue areas).

The same relationship between sunspots and temperature is also seen between sunspot numbers and temperatures in Greenland and Antarctica (Fig. 3). Each of the four minima in sunspot numbers seen in Fig. 3 also occurs in Fig. 2. All of them correspond to advances of alpine glaciers during each of the cool periods.

[Image: sunspot_demise_fig3.jpg]

Figure 3. Correlation of sunspot numbers and temperatures in Greenland and Antarctica (modified from Usoskin et al., 2004).

Figure 4 shows the same pattern between solar variation and temperature. Temperatures were cooler during each solar minima.

[Image: sunspot_demise_fig4.jpg]

Figure 4. Solar irradiance and temperature from 1750 to 1990 AD. During this 250-year period, the two curves follow remarkably similar patterns (modified from Hoyt and Schatten, 1997). Each solar minima corresponds to climatic cooling.

What can we learn from this historic data? Clearly, a strong correlation exists between solar variation and temperature. Although this correlation is too robust to be merely coincidental, exactly how solar variation are translated into climatic changes on Earth is not clear. For many years, solar scientists considered variation in solar irradiance to be too small to cause significant climate changes. However, Svensmark (Svensmark and Calder, 2007; Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997; Svensmark et al., 2007) has proposed a new concept of how the sun may impact Earth’s climate. Svensmark recognized the importance of cloud generation as a result of ionization in the atmosphere caused by cosmic rays. Clouds reflect incoming sunlight and tend to cool the Earth. The amount of cosmic radiation is greatly affected by the sun’s magnetic field, so during times of weak solar magnetic field, more cosmic radiation reaches the Earth. Thus, perhaps variation in the intensity of the solar magnetic field may play an important role in climate change.

Are we headed for another Little Ice Age?

In 1999, the year after the high temperatures of the 1998 El Nino, I became convinced that geologic data of recurring climatic cycles (ice core isotopes, glacial advances and retreats, and sun spot minima) showed conclusively that we were headed for several decades of global cooling and presented a paper to that effect (Fig. 5). The evidence for this conclusion was presented in a series of papers from 2000 to 2011 (The data are available in several GSA papers, my website, a 2010 paper, and in a paper scheduled to be published in Sept 2011). The evidence consisted of temperature data from isotope analyses in the Greenland ice cores, the past history of the PDO, alpine glacial fluctuations, and the abrupt Pacific SST flips from cool to warm in 1977 and from warm to cool in 1999. Projection of the PDO to 2040 forms an important part of this cooling prediction.

[Image: sunspot_demise_figure5.jpg]

Figure 5. Projected temperature changes to 2040 AD. Three possible scenarios are shown: (1) cooling similar to the 1945-1977 cooling, cooling similar to the 1880-1915 cooling, and cooling similar to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1820). Cooling similar to the Maunder Minimum would be an extension of the Dalton curve off the graph.

So far, my cooling prediction seems to be coming to pass, with no global warming above the 1998 temperatures and a gradually deepening cooling since then. However, until now, I have suggested that it was too early to tell which of these possible cooling scenarios were most likely. If we are indeed headed toward a disappearance of sunspots similar to the Maunder Minimum during the Little Ice Age then perhaps my most dire prediction may come to pass. As I have said many times over the past 10 years, time will tell whether my prediction is correct or not. The announcement that sun spots may disappear totally for several decades is very disturbing because it could mean that we are headed for another Little Ice Age during a time when world population is predicted to increase by 50% with sharply increasing demands for energy, food production, and other human needs. Hardest hit will be poor countries that already have low food production, but everyone would feel the effect of such cooling. The clock is ticking. Time will tell!
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"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
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#3
Lawrence Soloman describes how NASA’s David Hathaway, of Marshall Space Flight Center, has actually begun to change his tune. Too bad the loonies at Goddard are not listening.

Quote: NASA scientist reverses sunspot prediction, bolstering global cooling theory

Lawrence Solomon

Five years ago, NASA’s David Hathaway, one of the world’s leading authorities on the solar cycle, predicted that the Sun was about to enter an unusually intense period of sunspot activity. Referring to Solar Cycle 24, the 11-year period that we’re now in, Hathaway predicted that it “looks like it’s going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago.”

Because sunspot activity has historically predicted periods of global warming and global cooling – lots of sunspots translates into lots of warming and vice versa – Hathaway’s study – presented at a December 2006 meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco — acted to support global warming theorists and to discredit the various solar scientists who believe that Earth is about to enter a prolonged period of cooling.

Today, Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, believes his earlier prediction was wrong. Rather than hitting a peak of 160 sunspots, and possibly 185, as he predicted in 2006, he now believes that the Sun’s activity will decline dramatically. The current prediction, to less than half that of 2006, “would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years,” he now states.

All this comes amid a flurry of other reports, including from scientists at the U.S. National Solar Observatory (NSO) and U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory, indicating that global cooling, and perhaps even a new Little Ice Age, is on its way.

“We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now, but we see no sign of it,” states Frank Hill of the U.S. National Solar Observatory, who recently co-authored another paper in the field. “This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.”

The upshot is chilling: “If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades,” Hill states. “That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

The notion of another Little Ice Age, as happened in the last half of the 1600s, is no longer dismissed. Asks the National Solar Observatory: “An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots [which occurred] during 1645-1715.”

To see the historic number of sunspots, including the number during the Little Ice Age in the mid 1600s, click here.

[Image: ssn_yearly11.jpg]

To see Hathaway’s new, dramatically lowered prediction, click here.

[Image: ssn_predict_l1.gif]

Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers. LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com.
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"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
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#4
very good, john. now please show what way you want to go with your screwed agenda, this one here, or http://ai-jane.org/bb/showthread.php?tid=11699
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#5
(06-24-2011, 01:39 PM)quadrat Wrote: very good, john. now please show what way you want to go with your screwed agenda, this one here, or http://ai-jane.org/bb/showthread.php?tid=11699

Allow me to refer you to the second paragraph of the announcement, which I have in my opening post:

Quote:As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.

Does that help?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
Reply
#6
Past prophesies of future solar inactivity and cooler climate
Reply
#7
(06-24-2011, 03:15 PM)sunsettommy Wrote: Past prophesies of future solar inactivity and cooler climate

Here is the fellow, who got me pointed in this direction:

Quote:10. Dr. Theodor Landscheidt (1927- 2004), Schroeter Institiute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Canada)
Among his comments from many years of research on solar climate forcing include: “Contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man made warming as high as 5.8(degrees)C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
Reply
#8
Solar Activity and Terrestrial Climate

It is about 1/3 of the way down from the top.

EXCERPT:

On July 6, 2004, a BBC article, headlined Sunspots reaching 1000-year high, caught the attention of a number of readers. Related articles soon appeared in other publications, for example: Suspot activity hits 1000-year high at Swissinfo.org, The truth about global warming - it's the Sun that's to blame at the London Telegraph, and Hotter-burning sun warming the planet at the Washington Times.

It seems that at a conference of astronomers in Hamburg, Germany, Sami Solanki and colleagues presented a discussion of possible correlations between solar variability and terrestrial climate. The recent articles provide some clues to the content of the presentation, but a slightly closer look may be of interest.

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There is a lot more links with charts as well in the link.Worth looking there.
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#9
Yeah, John Daly was the person I first started reading, waaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy back in the mid-late 90s, when he was one of the few people successfully raising hell with the Kooks. That's how I came into contact with Dr. Landscheidt. It's a Damned shame he had to pass on, so early on.
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"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
Reply
#10
(06-24-2011, 12:27 PM)John L Wrote: I know I have been talking about his for years now, but there isn't any dedicated thread to this future event. And as I have contended, it is only a matter of time, and I can see the process already underway. So, I'll start with a post I made on another thread first
---------

I say a quotation last week about markets. The point made was that downward moving markets are highly volatile, while upward ones are not. It seems this is common with practically all things. With climate/weather the same holds true, and we have history to show it. As the planet cools, conditions are volatile as well.

And this brings me to the actual article that has many climate scientists concerned about the next coming little ice age. It has been quoted quite a bit, but here is the original, from the National Solar Observatory.

Buzz, I hope you are going to read this, because it is stating exactly what I have been saying for several years now.

Quote:WHAT'S DOWN WITH THE SUN?
MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED

A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).

As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.

The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces: http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."

Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun's 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun's magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715.

Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24.

"We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now," Hill explained, "but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all."

In the second paper, Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss (Earth's magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot.

Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.

Moving outward, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force's coronal research program at NSO's Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the "rush to the poles," the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun's faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO's 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot.

"A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun," Altrock explained. "Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun."

Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward.

"In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees," Altrock said. "Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we'll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23's magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case."

All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.

"If we are right," Hill concluded, "this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate."

In response to news inquiries and stories, Dr. Frank Hill issued a follow-up statement:

"We are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. We are predicting the behavior of the solar cycle. In my opinion, it is a huge leap from that to an abrupt global cooling, since the connections between solar activity and climate are still very poorly understood. My understanding is that current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C decrease from a Maunder-like minimum, too small for an ice age. It is unfortunate that the global warming/cooling studies have become so politically polarizing."

Please note the last paragraph. The disclaimer is not there because they actually believe we will not be heading into another little ice age. This is a disclaimer so they will not be burned at the academic stake for claiming just that. But in private circles, you can bet your Ass that they are telling everyone just that, and with authority too.

Now, look at this chart:

[Image: holocene.jpg]

Not all charts exactly match each other, but they still tell a tale of the maximum Holocene Optimum being about eight thousand years ago, when the Sahara was not a desert, but a savanna, dotted with rivers and lakes. The point is that we are slowly headed back toward the long slope downward, into the next round of the Pleistocene.

We really need to be figuring out how we can stop the cooling and keep the planet warm. Because if we can't, billions will die tragically as a result.

There are lot of evidence showing that it has been cooling for thousands of years.

We have been sliding into another glacial/cool down for a long time.

I made a short simple presentation about it over a year ago
Reply
#11
Here is more peer reviewed papers, and a French translation, showing a clear link between the Jovian planets and their affect on the sun. I'm going to place them in a couple of places in case I forget where they are and cannot locate them again.
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Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion Solar Physics.

Quote:Abstract - We employ the JPL long ephemeris DE-102 to study the inertial motion of the Sun for the period A.D. 760–2100. Defining solar orbits with reference to the Sun's successive close approaches to the solar system barycenter, occurring at mean intervals of 19.86 yr, we find simple relationships linking the inertial orientation of the solar orbit and the amplitude of the precessional rotation of the orbit with the occurrence of the principal prolonged solar activity minima of the current millenium (the Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder minima). The progression of the inertial orientation parameter is controlled by the 900-yr great inequality of the motion of Jupiter and Saturn, while the precessional rotation parameter is linked with the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion previously identified by Jose (1965). A new prolonged minimum of solar activity may be imminent.
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Does a Spin–Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle? PASA

Quote:Abstract - We present evidence to show that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in its orbital motion about the barycentre of the Solar System. We propose that this synchronization is indicative of a spin–orbit coupling mechanism operating between the Jovian planets and the Sun. However, we are unable to suggest a plausible underlying physical cause for the coupling. Some researchers have proposed that it is the period of the meridional flow in the convective zone of the Sun that controls both the duration and strength of the Solar cycle. We postulate that the overall period of the meridional flow is set by the level of disruption to the flow that is caused by changes in Sun’s equatorial rotation speed. Based on our claim that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in the Sun’s orbital motion about the barycentre, we propose that the mean period for the Sun’s meridional flow is set by a Synodic resonance between the flow period (~22.3 yr), the overall 178.7-yr repetition period for the solar orbital motion, and the 19.86-yr synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn.
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This is a translated French site:The Cause of Long Solar Cycles.
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"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
Reply
#12
Here is another scientist, Nils-Axel Mörner, expert on sea level elevations, who is climbing aboard the "Little Ice Age" bandwagon with a peer reviewed paper: Arctic Environment by the Middle of this Century. A free copy of the paper can be obtained right here.

Here is a shorter version, at Anthony Watts site.

This is not going to go away, because the solar cycles completely verify all this. And it is becoming more apparent that solar angular momentum, along with magnetic solar flux influencing cosmic rays, are going to carry the day over the AGW crowd.

Quote:[Image: morner.jpg]

Nils-Axel Mörner, best known for his career of studying sea level and sea level records, reported in the April 2011 issue of the journal Energy & Environment that:

Quote:At around 2040-2050 we will be in a new major Solar Minimum. It is to be expected that we will then have a new “Little Ice Age” over the Arctic and NW Europe. The past Solar Minima were linked to a general speeding-up of the Earth’s rate of rotation. This affected the surface currents and southward penetration of Arctic water in the North Atlantic causing “Little Ice Ages” over northwestern Europe and the Arctic.

At the time I thought this was a bit of a reach, and still do, but it fits in well with:

* today’s earlier post, Study: solar activity lull increases chances of cold UK winters

* discussions at ICCC #6 about more coming cold winters and realizing that some people were quite familiar with the paper, e.g. Nicola Scafetta but some were not (I gave Bill Gray my copy) and


* a “flurry” of reports from the southern hemisphere and July skiing in the northern hemisphere.

Mörner claims

Quote:During the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Solar Minima, Arctic water was forced southwards all the way down to Mid-Portugal and the adjacent land areas experienced “Little Ice Ages” (Mörner, 1995, 2010). At the same time, however, the Gibraltar and NW Africa experienced warm events. This North-South opposed climate conditions are well understood in terms of differential distribution of current flow-masses along the northern and southern branches, respectively, of the Gulf Stream (Mörner, 1995, 2010).[/url]

While he mentions Svensmark’s “brilliant new theory,” Mörner refers to changes in the Earth’s rotation rate due to changes in the solar wind. I have a lot of trouble with that. I’m more comfortable with changing rates due to build up of seasonal snow and ice at high latitudes. Nevertheless, Mörner explains:

[quote]Due to the changes in rotation, the oceanic surface current system is forced to respond (Figure 1). As a function of this, the Gulf Stream alters its main distribution of water along the northern and southern branches, and simultaneously cold Arctic water can, at the speeding-up phases of Solar Minima, penetrate far down along the west coasts of Europe creating Little Ice Age environmental conditions (Figure 2).

Note this is a regional change, any global effects will like be much milder.

As for the timing of all this:

Quote:The date of the New Solar Minimum has been assigned at around 2040 by Mörner et al. (2003), at 2030-2040 by Harrara (2010), at 2042 ±11 by Abdassamatov (2010) and at 2030-2040 by Scafetta (2010), implying a fairly congruent picture despite somewhat different ways of transferring past signals into future predictions.

The onset of the associated cooling has been given at 2010 by Easterbrook (2010) and Herrara (2010), and at “approximately 2014″ by Abdassamatov (2010). Easterbrook (2010) backs up his claim that the cooling has already commenced by geological observations facts.

At any rate, from a Solar-Terrestrial point of view, we will, by the middle of this century, be in a New Solar Minimum and in a New Little Ice Age. This conclusion is completely opposite to the scenarios presented by IPCC (2001, 2007) as illustrated in Figure 3. With “the Sun in the centre”, no other conclusion can be drawn, however.
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#13
(06-26-2011, 11:17 PM)sunsettommy Wrote: ...Not all charts exactly match each other, but they still tell a tale of the maximum Holocene Optimum being about eight thousand years ago, when the Sahara was not a desert, but a savanna, dotted with rivers and lakes. The point is that we are slowly headed back toward the long slope downward, into the next round of the Pleistocene.

We really need to be figuring out how we can stop the cooling and keep the planet warm. Because if we can't, billions will die tragically as a result.

haven't we figured out how to stop the cooling, be means of greenhouse-gas emissions and global warming? there is neither a little ice age in sight let alone a planet-wide glacialization. the sahara is turning green again right now, there is evidence of increasing rainfall and vegetation since 1998. i reported sahara-wide downpours a couple of years back here.

http://discovermagazine.com/2006/oct/sah...na-climate

that's nice for the sahara, but it's arab lebensraum, and we should be concerned about the so far fertile regions that belong to us.
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#14
Man, I sure hope the drop in sunspots cools us off soon. June was brutal, >10 degrees above average and July does not look better here in central NC. How I long to bask in the cool temperatures flowing off the glacier in Ohio.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#15
Yeah, it's terrible here. I'm getting too old to get out in all this heat, so I tend to stay in.

The jet stream has been screwed up, as the west is going through cooler than normal weather. I remember just last week some ski resort in Utah was still open for business, and had not even shut down yet. I notice that Thursday the temperatures will be going back to normal again.
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"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
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#16
It is a La-Nina pattern.

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#17
(07-12-2011, 10:19 PM)sunsettommy Wrote: It is a La-Nina pattern.

You mean 'the remnants' of one, correct?
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"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it" - Jonathan Swift, 1710
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#18
(07-13-2011, 10:56 AM)John L Wrote:
(07-12-2011, 10:19 PM)sunsettommy Wrote: It is a La-Nina pattern.

You mean 'the remnants' if one, correct?

The effects of La-Nina continues beyond the expiration of it.For a couple months or so.

At this time.It appears that El-Nino is not going to show up.Maybe another new La-Nina surge instead.

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#19
Tommy, do you know of a place or web site that explains why La-Nina effects the weather like it does? I have not been able to find a web site that does this. It is not clear to me why equatorial ocean cooling off the West coast of SA creates droughts in SE USA.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#20
(07-12-2011, 05:15 PM)jt Wrote: Man, I sure hope the drop in sunspots cools us off soon. June was brutal, >10 degrees above average and July does not look better here in central NC. How I long to bask in the cool temperatures flowing off the glacier in Ohio.

nope, sorry.

Quote:CHICAGO (Reuters) - A massive heat wave is expected to develop over much of the central and eastern United States beginning on Friday with heat index values that could reach 115 degrees.

The big story for the coming weekend will be the building heat," said Jim Keeney, a National Weather Service meteorologist. "It looks like it's going to be a long-term heat wave."

In the thick of the heat wave is Oklahoma where Governor Mary Fallin asked Oklahomans to pray for rain this Sunday.

"The power of prayer is a wonderful thing, and I would ask every Oklahoman to look to a greater power this weekend and ask for rain," Fallin said in a news release on Thursday.

Fallin on Thursday also issued a ban on outdoor burning for the western half of the state because of the extreme drought conditions.

"The number of wildfires we have had over the last few months is extremely tough on our state firefighters," Fallin said.

"It's a drain on their resources as well as a physical drain. Anything that can be done to minimize fires will help to keep both our firefighters and the public safe. I'm asking all Oklahomans to be vigilant and to do their part in preventing fires."

Earlier this year Texas Governor Rick Perry asked Texans to pray for rain because of the drought there.

http://news.yahoo.com/another-blast-heat...55253.html

what are the sunspots doing? governor perry is such a good and distinguished christian, all of texas is full of them, so did the lord answer their prayers and send some rain their way?
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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