Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Are We Headed Into Another Little Ice Age?
#61
You don't "got" anything.

If proxy data doesn't match observed data then you certainly don't base any conclusions on it. If you were scientifically literate you would know this.
The rightist motto: "Facts?... we don't need no stinkin facts."

[Image: Obama08_Logo150.gif]
Reply
#62
(09-14-2011, 02:14 AM)Buzz Wrote: You don't "got" anything.

If proxy data doesn't match observed data then you certainly don't base any conclusions on it. If you were scientifically literate you would know this.

You are going to have to talk to one of your "heros" - Michael Mann - about that one.

Although, suggesting he is not scientifically literate does move you a bit toward the Skeptical camp.
I know you think you understand what you thought I said,
but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!
Reply
#63
Oh No!, winter is coming early. First last week there were early snows in Colorado. And now it is Euroland, i.e.the Suisse, who are feeling the chill.

[Image: schnee_st_moritz_september_text_1.125640...420693.jpg]

I wonder what the Brits are thinking now? After all, the Third Time is the Charm, right? S5
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#64
(09-20-2011, 06:10 PM)John L Wrote: Oh No!, winter is coming early. First last week there were early snows in
Of course August was the hottest August on record in Denver, but that is neither here nor there I'll wager.

Sure volatile weather here.

[Image: SalmaHayekcopy.jpg]
Reply
#65
The weather maps I looked at this summer showed a very cool W Europe, often in the 60's or 70's (F). In contrast, much of the US east of the Rockies was plagued by persistent high temperatures of 90-100+. June and July in piedmont NC were unusually hot, but it cooled here in August.

I've been curious about what makes persistent weather patterns. For example, the SW US (and central America) had a persistent drought lasting about 400 years around 1200, I think. The little ice ages and some warming periods lasted about 300-400 years. Some say that these were caused by locations of persistent high and low pressure areas. I have found no one who can explain these events to me in meteorological terms.

I suspect ocean temperatures have a great deal to do with it. For example, if an ocean area is unusually warm, it should generate a persistent low pressure area, because warm air is less dense and rises. An analogous statement would hold for cold ocean areas.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
Reply
#66
Here it is October and the Brits are already preparing for the coming little ice age. Apparently two horribly cold winters, with a third probably on the way, have made believers out of many.

Here's a collection of just a few comments about all this fear and concern:

[Image: The_Frozen_Thames_1677.jpg]
The Frozen Thames 1677

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#67
Odd. Last summer I read that la Nina was waning, and had in fact become below threshold and therefor non existent. It is a far reach from the locus of la Nina to Liverpool and its surroundings. Some magical meteorological mechanisms must be at work.

If it all works out, look for hockey to replace soccer as the reason for getting drunk and rioting in the UK.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
Reply
#68
Didn't I read last month where La Nina had started to return again, after a very short intermission?

Ahhh, here you go. And note the date of the message:

NOTE: let me again restate an age old truism. Things going up/higher tend to be orderly. Things going down/falling tend to be chaotic. The Stock Market is not the only thing that does this. Climate tends to follow suit, and we are currently going through a chaotic period, just as the beginning of the Little Ice Age of the 14th century. Enjoy S5

Quote:NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back

September 8, 2011

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#69
Oh, that sux. I was hoping to get more rain on my garden. (La Ninas cause the SE of US to be dry.)

Is a persistently recurring La Nina a symptom of global cooling? One might conjecture this if it causes a cooling effect in the UK.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
Reply
#70
I still believe La Nina and El Ninos are primarily due to undersea vulcanism. But we are definitely headed into a strange series of climate craziness.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#71
Here is some more recent information for everyone to ponder:



BRITAIN FACES A MINI 'ICE AGE'

Quote:BRITAIN is set to suffer a mini ice age that could last for decades and bring with it a series of bitterly cold winters.


And it could all begin within weeks as experts said last night that the mercury may soon plunge below the record -20C endured last year.

Scientists say the anticipated cold blast will be due to the return of a disruptive weather pattern called La Nina. Latest evidence shows La Nina, linked to extreme winter weather in America and with a knock-on effect on Britain, is in force and will gradually strengthen as the year ends.

The climate phenomenon, characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Pacific, was linked to our icy winter last year – one of the coldest on record.

And it coincides with research from the Met Office indicating the nation could be facing a repeat of the “little ice age” that gripped the country 300 years ago, causing decades of harsh winters.

The prediction, to be published in Nature magazine, is based on observations of a slight fall in the sun’s emissions of ultraviolet radiation, which may, over a long period, trigger Arctic conditions for many years.

Although a connection between La Nina and conditions in Europe is scientifically uncertain, ministers have warned transport organisations and emergency services not to take any chances. Forecasts suggest the country could be shivering in a big freeze as severe and sustained as last winter from as early as the end of this month.

La Nina, which occurs every three to five years, has a powerful effect on weather thousands of miles away by influencing an intense upper air current that helps create low pressure fronts.

Another factor that can affect Europe is the amount of ice in the Arctic and sea temperatures closer to home.

Ian Currie, of the Meterological Society, said: “All the world’s weather systems are connected. What is going on now in the Pacific can have repercussions later around the world.”

Parts of the country already saw the first snowfalls of the winter last week, dumping two inches on the Cairngorms in Scotland. And forecaster James Madden, from Exacta Weather, warned we are facing a “severely cold and snowy winter”.

Councils say they are fully prepared having stockpiled thousands of tons of extra grit. And the Local Government Association says it had more salt available at the beginning of this month than the total used last winter.

But the mountain of salt could be dug into very soon amid widespread heavy snow as early as the start of next month. Last winter, the Met Office was heavily criticised after predicting a mild winter, only to see the country grind to a halt amid hazardous driving conditions in temperatures as low as -20C.

Peter Box, the Local Government Association’s economy and transport spokesman, said: “Local authorities have been hard at work making preparations for this winter and keeping the roads open will be our number one priority.”

The National Grid will this week release its forecast for winter energy use based on long-range weather forecasts.

Such forecasting is, however, notoriously difficult, especially for the UK, which is subject to a wide range of competing climatic forces.

A Met Office spokesman said that although La Nina was recurring, the temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were so far only 1C below normal, compared with a drop of 2C at the same time last year.

Research by America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that in 2010-11 La Nina contributed to record winter snowfalls, spring flooding and drought across the world.

Jonathan Powell, of Positive Weather Solutions, said: “The end of the month and November are looking colder than average with severe frosts and the chance of snow.”

However, some balmy autumnal sunshine was forecast for this week.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#72
That is a lot more credible than the AGW propaganda constantly being foisted on us by less than conscientious "experts."
Reply
#73
I wish people would not get carried away with long term speculation and make it seem that it is probably going to happen.

For the British Isles and Northern Europe.It will have to depend on sustained NEGATIVE Arctic Oscillation for that to happen.The last 3 years it was indeed commonly negative.But before that with warmer winters,it was POSITIVE AO then.

Until anyone can show that the prevailing climatic pattern since the 1850's.Has changed to a new general pattern.It will continue to be a slow warming trend into the future.Just as it has been the last 150+ years.
Reply
#74
No Tom, we have been slowly dropping in over all temperature since the Holocene Climate Optimum. Its just been a slow up and down process, with a gradual inching downward, over time. Eventually something big is going to come along and impact the planet, and we are going to be hurled downward quickly, and Voila! we will be in the throes of the next round of the Pleistocene.

If you will go and look at the graphs on page one of this thread, you can see how the planet temps have been slowly drifting downward.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#75
(10-21-2011, 09:53 PM)John L Wrote: If you will go and look at the graphs on page one of this thread, you can see how the planet temps have been slowly drifting downward.

I don't like looking at that graph because it implies that my grandchildren's

grandchildren's granchildren

will be called " grandchillin' "
I know you think you understand what you thought I said,
but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!
Reply
#76
JW, you are determined that Tommy and I don't have at each other, aren't you?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#77
Just chillin' out.

S1
I know you think you understand what you thought I said,
but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!
Reply
#78
(10-21-2011, 09:53 PM)John L Wrote: No Tom, we have been slowly dropping in over all temperature since the Holocene Climate Optimum. Its just been a slow up and down process, with a gradual inching downward, over time. Eventually something big is going to come along and impact the planet, and we are going to be hurled downward quickly, and Voila! we will be in the throes of the next round of the Pleistocene.

If you will go and look at the graphs on page one of this thread, you can see how the planet temps have been slowly drifting downward.

I am talking about the last 150 years.Since then it has been a slow warming trend.

I notice that you did not answer my statement:

Quote:Until anyone can show that the prevailing climatic pattern since the 1850's.Has changed to a new general pattern.It will continue to be a slow warming trend into the future.Just as it has been the last 150+ years.

The last 150 years.

I know about the long term cooling trend.I wrote a report about it almost two years ago:

We are already sliding into the next cold ice age



Reply
#79
Tommy, here is the principle difference between you and me. I am into strategy, and you are into tactics. One hundred and fifty years is not even one complete Landscheidt Cycle, so naturally we have been slowly warming up again. But I contend that that is over, and we are starting the 'tactical' slide into another little ice age again.

Strategically, we are headed down.............................., and that is what I am most interested in. S5


And suppose this little critter was just a tiny bit different in trajectory............................
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
Reply
#80
Quote:Tommy, here is the principle difference between you and me. I am into strategy, and you are into tactics. One hundred and fifty years is not even one complete Landscheidt Cycle, so naturally we have been slowly warming up again.

Yes it is possible that the warming trend is over.But until there is evidence that it has indeed happened.We have to keep with the previous 150 years warming trend.The cooling trend of the next 20-30 years could just be the usual cooling trend line that we have been seeing since the 1850's.Then warm right back and continue the trend that started back in the 1850's.

We know what the past and the present tells us.But the future is still an unknown.

That is the part where the IPCC was so badly damaged with their modeled temperature projections,to year 2100.They are already way off in the first decade.Because they could not resist making overly confident temperature predictions well into the future.

Quote:But I contend that that is over, and we are starting the 'tactical' slide into another little ice age again.

Oh come on JL!

I have made it clear with my report I gave you a link to.That shows the planet has for thousands of years been sliding into another ice age expansion.

The mystery is why so many forget that the interglacial period is slowly coming to an end.

Quote:Strategically, we are headed down.............................., and that is what I am most interested in.

I have known this for a while now.

S8
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)