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Are We Headed Into Another Little Ice Age?
#21
Old news Qbert. Check the date on your breaking story. Yesterday it was 87F, and today it is to be the same. Two beautiful summer days in North Carolina.

However, none of this weather has anything to do with the coming little ice age, other than the fact that as climate averages decline, the weather is almost always volatile.
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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#22
20 hrs old news. climate and weather must change rapidly indeed over there.
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#23
The State of Washington and Oregon.Has gone through the COLDEST spring on record.

In my area it may end up being the COLDEST summer on record.By this time I see around 5 days of 100+ degrees F.None this year.

It has been above 95 two times this year.When it should be about 20 times by now.

The forecast for the next week is in the upper 80's.

The average high is 94 at this date.
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#24
(07-14-2011, 09:21 PM)jt Wrote: Tommy, do you know of a place or web site that explains why La-Nina effects the weather like it does? I have not been able to find a web site that does this. It is not clear to me why equatorial ocean cooling off the West coast of SA creates droughts in SE USA.

LINK

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#25
Tommy, that is a nice discussion of the PDO, ENSO and their correlations to weather, but they don't explain the physical mechanisms by which the change in weather is produced. Somehow it must be related to airflow and the location of highs and lows, I think. I have read that the ITCZ shifts with ENSO, but why? Is there a Hadley cell over the gulf of Mexico? Does it get interfered with, preventing moisture from the gulf from flowing northward over land?
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#26
(07-16-2011, 05:06 PM)jt Wrote: Tommy, that is a nice discussion of the PDO, ENSO and their correlations to weather, but they don't explain the physical mechanisms by which the change in weather is produced. Somehow it must be related to airflow and the location of highs and lows, I think. I have read that the ITCZ shifts with ENSO, but why? Is there a Hadley cell over the gulf of Mexico? Does it get interfered with, preventing moisture from the gulf from flowing northward over land?

On Recent Criticisms of My Research


Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)

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#27
(07-16-2011, 05:06 PM)jt Wrote: Tommy, that is a nice discussion of the PDO, ENSO and their correlations to weather, but they don't explain the physical mechanisms by which the change in weather is produced. Somehow it must be related to airflow and the location of highs and lows, I think. I have read that the ITCZ shifts with ENSO, but why? Is there a Hadley cell over the gulf of Mexico? Does it get interfered with, preventing moisture from the gulf from flowing northward over land?

Jt, why not look at the La Nina in simpler terms. Imagine there is a sharp drop off in undersea vulcanization. Without all that hot magma/smokers spewing out excess heat, the ocean tends to cool, and less heat moseying upward to the ocean surface, and later into the atmosphere.

We know where the El Nino, which affects us, comes from. It's that area just to the north and east of New Zealand. As the ocean surface heats up, the heat moves into the air stream, which is carried by the Jet-stream to NA. If you can find a topographical map of that area, and look at what the sea floor looks like, you can see that it is overloaded with active volcanoes. In fact just last week the same area experienced an undersea earthquake.

I wonder what caused that?

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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#28
I still think La Nina and El Nino were created by prehistoric green house gases from campfires.
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#29
Keep in mind that La-Nina is simply the absence of an El-Nino phase.

Think about it and see why.

S5



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#30
Stop with all these bullshit facts. My theory was just fine till those came along.
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#31
Tommy, thanks for the links.

Perhaps Spencer is on to something.

In the second one, the plots of the anomalies look interesting and germane, but they are poorly labeled and explained. Perhaps they are only for the experts who understand the mumbo-jumbo.

John, I think the warm air generated in the South Pacific never reaches the northern hemisphere, at least not north of the inter-tropical convergence zone (which does wander slightly north of the equator). It certainly never gets as far north as the northern jet stream, as far as I know. There is a tropical jet stream in the northern hemisphere (and southern too) but I don't know that they interact.

here are some illustrations

Here is an interesting explanation from NOAA
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#32
(07-17-2011, 01:04 PM)John L Wrote: Jt, why not look at the La Nina in simpler terms. Imagine there is a sharp drop off in undersea vulcanization. Without all that hot magma/smokers spewing out excess heat, the ocean tends to cool, and less heat moseying upward to the ocean surface, and later into the atmosphere.

We know where the El Nino, which affects us, comes from. It's that area just to the north and east of New Zealand. As the ocean surface heats up, the heat moves into the air stream, which is carried by the Jet-stream to NA. If you can find a topographical map of that area, and look at what the sea floor looks like, you can see that it is overloaded with active volcanoes. In fact just last week the same area experienced an undersea earthquake.

I wonder what caused that?

so do i. el nino comes from undersea earthquakes?
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#33
Here is something else that is now official, even though many of us knew this would happen all along, with the cooling of the planet: Corals can’t handle the cold. That's right, a cooling planet is the REAL problem, and it is coming to a theatre near you,.........soon, regardless what Buzz keeps telling us. S5

Quote:New Study Shows that Florida’s Reefs Cannot Endure a ‘Cold Snap’

Miami — August 26, 2011 — Remember frozen iguanas falling from trees during Florida’s 2010 record-breaking cold snap? Well, a new study led by scientists at the University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science shows that Florida’s corals also dropped in numbers due to the cold conditions.

“It was a major setback,” said Diego Lirman, associate professor at the UM Rosenstiel School and lead author of the study. “Centuries-old coral colonies were lost in a matter of days.”

The chilly January temperatures caused the most catastrophic loss of corals within the Florida Reef Tract, which spans 160 miles (260 kilometers) from Miami to the Dry Tortugas and is the only living barrier reef in the continental U.S.


Members of the Florida Reef Resilience Program, a group comprised of Florida scientists and resource managers, conducted a month-long survey of 76 reefs sites from Martin County to Key West, both during and shortly after the unusually cold weather.

The research team compared the mortality rates of corals from the cold event to warm-water events, such as the highly publicized bleaching event in 2005, and concluded that the cold-water event cause even more widespread morality than previous warm-water events. The results were published in the August 2011 issue of the journal PLoS One.

The study found coral tissue mortality reached over 40-percent for several important reef-building species and that large colonies in shallow and near-shore reefs were hardest hit. This is in contrast to a less than one-percent tissue mortality caused by warm-water events since 2005. Coral species that had previously proven tolerant to higher-than-normal ocean temperatures were most affected by the cold-water event.

“This was undoubtedly the single worst event on record for Florida corals,” said Lirman.
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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#34
Well, it might not be proof that we are cooling,

but it does show that sometimes cooler is not better, that's for sure.
I know you think you understand what you thought I said,
but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant!
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#35
I am not yet convinced that we are going into another LIA phase.

Since the 1850's.We have been on a slow over all warming trend.It is a trend line over the decades,that shows no acceleration in either direction.We have periods of sharp warming for around 20-25 years.A slow cooling for around 30 years.The over all trend is a slight warming one.

That has been the climate paradigm,since it got out of the LIA phase.The world will continue to warm up.Until there is a new shift in the climate.

I have not seen the telltale shift to a climatic cooling regime taking place.So far it appears we are simply going into the usual short term cooling trend we have seen before.The ones that last for around 30 years.Then a new warming trend will once again show up after that.

I think it is premature to be saying we are going into another LIA phase.That would mean the type of temperature trend line we have seen from the 1850's would vanish.So far that is not being observed.

The best we can do is say this coming cooling period will be a little deeper than the previous one.Due to the sun's reduced activity this time around.Making for a slightly cooler ocean.That will mean a cooler atmosphere.

There is something in the system that is causing these periodic short term warming and cooling cycles.One that has been preventing large climatic shifts to a long term warming or cooling trend.It is an unusually stable climate pattern we have been living in for the last 150+ years.

During the LIA.There were strong warming and cooling trends.With the over all cooling trend predominating.A more unstable climate pattern that lasted for around 400 years.The last major unstable temperature pattern was from around 1810-1830.After that it became more stable and slower changing.

The more stable climate we now live in,is unusual.That is what I fear will change soon.And we will later on then long for the "stable" pattern that existed from 1850's to 2015?

Here is one such link.That shows the unusual climatic stability we are now living in.As compared to the last few thousand years.

U.S. Climate Data Reveals Past Global Warming Far Exceeds Modern Temperature Change

That chart in the link is very revealing.
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#36
(08-27-2011, 11:37 AM)sunsettommy Wrote: I am not yet convinced that we are going into another LIA phase.

I have not seen the telltale shift to a climatic cooling regime taking place.

I think it is premature to be saying we are going into another LIA phase.

Hey, that's fine Tommy. You don't have to believe it is going to occur,..................yet. And I'm not going to label you a "Climate Denier" either.

But if you agree that we go through a 179 year solar cycle, as Dr. Landscheidt had been showing before his death, Solar Cycle 22 and 23, are virtually the same as Solar Cycle 4 and 5, just prior to entering the Dalton Minimum. And that is significant. Too bad we cannot take it back further, so as to match it with other little ice age phases.

And now that there is more proof that cosmic rays influence cloud formation, taking the sun's relationship to the Jovian planets, and it's angular momentum, there appears to be a real connection to it all.

But you don't have to be convinced. Leave that to me, ok? You can go off on other crusades. I'll stick with this one. S5

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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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#37
???

I did allow for the possibility of a similar Dalton Minimum as the one in the early 1800's.

Quote:The best we can do is say this coming cooling period will be a little deeper than the previous one.Due to the sun's reduced activity this time around.Making for a slightly cooler ocean.That will mean a cooler atmosphere.

Little of this came around for the 1945-1978 cooling period.It was the time of the cool PDO that lasted for that time frame.The oceans were not cooling very much and the atmosphere was still getting some warming from the worlds oceans.The sun was still very active and warming the ocean waters.

This time around it should be a deeper cooling trend.

But still no indication that the climate is shifting to a long term cooling trend.That part is not yet evident.

You need to separate out the difference between short cooling trend of a couple decades.That invariably goes back to a short warming trend of a couple decades or so.

That is what we have been experiencing since the mid 1850's.

To one that is undeniable cooling trend of many decades to over a century,even centuries.

That has yet to show up.
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#38
SSTommy, that is a very informative article. Thanks.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#39
WOW!!! Never thought I would see JW or Sunny debunking John L's stupidity. Too bad Sunny's C3 link is just as stupid. You can't determine what global temperatures were based on just one ice core. And the way they made that graph is highly misleading. This is just a completely bogus comparison. I know Sunny won't like to hear this but... the people at C3 are the biggest cherry pickers and liars on the web as far as climate change goes.
The rightist motto: "Facts?... we don't need no stinkin facts."

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#40
(08-31-2011, 01:49 AM)Buzz Wrote: WOW!!! Never thought I would see JW or Sunny debunking John L's stupidity. Too bad Sunny's C3 link is just as stupid. You can't determine what global temperatures were based on just one ice core. And the way they made that graph is highly misleading. This is just a completely bogus comparison. I know Sunny won't like to hear this but... the people at C3 are the biggest cherry pickers and liars on the web as far as climate change goes.

Soooooo, you think I am possessed with "stupidity", and you haven't bothered looking in the mirror lately? S13

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Hillary Clinton Is Like Herpes, "She Wont Go Away" - Anna Paulina
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