02-08-2007, 12:48 AM
Quote:Population loss is acceptable only if the borders are sealed, otherwise you get Kosovo.Not necessarily so. Kosovo was my own idea if you remember.
But I am less and less hooked on this scenario.
If I am right Yogoslavians invited Albanians on their territory and let them settle uncontrollably as peasants.
China is still agararian country, escpecially in the backward north. Yes, we invite them to work, but they are only cheap labor good for low construction work or growing of tomatos and watermelons. We can control this. Moreover Duma issued a law forbidding foreigners to be sellers in proportion of more than 40% to locals on the markets that were occupied by Chinese. When the law was signed by Putin, Chinese left. Could they do otherwise? I doubt. Skilled and qualified Chinese is a rare fruit to find in Russian FE. Low-labor workers are enough among Russians.
Summing up, Chinese cannot work in trade, in industry, and the land for seeding is too tough a business for a foreinger not familiar with Russian beurocracy.
Quote:1. In the far east region, the current trend will result in the Chinese majority. Eventually it will link up with the home country.
The problem is not one trend, there is a number of trends.
For example, a little fact that many young Russians started to move their elderly parents in China's bordering towns. They discovered that one
can survive in China for 1 dollar a day, food and home included. To get registration for residence is very easy in China too.
Russian babushkas feel very good with their $150 monthly pension in China. But that's not all.
In spite different prognoses population in the big Russian cities of FE is not decreasing, it is growing. We face the concentration of population as China does. People are leaving villages and small towns for the lights of big city. That's the point everyone miss.
Putin declared Vladivostok to be one of four gambling zones to be installed in Russia (a type of Las Vegas) and more than $3 bln is going to be invested in the infrastructure of the city.
Quote:2. In many other regions, the population is actually growing. These are the Muslim regions. In fact, some said that the breakup of the old Soviet Union was forced to avoid the Muslim majority; spinning off Central Asia did this...but only for a while.It was Stratfor, you have said it.
Well, Tatars are Muslims, but their birthrates and lifestyles are typically Russian (or European, as you wish). And the only Muslim regions with high birth rates is the contryside of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia.
The picture of cities is different. If we are able to involve those people into industry and services and give them good education for that, they will never break away.
