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Aircraft-carrier-sized Asteroid on the Horizon
#1
It's amazing how the scientist can be so quiet and so sure of themselves about the zero probablitiy of an impact. A mistake of 0.000001 in their calculation and we are all toast.

An asteroid the size of an aircraft carrier will come closer to Earth this autumn than our own moon does
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#2
(05-08-2011, 06:23 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: It's amazing how the scientist can be so quiet and so sure of themselves about the zero probablitiy of an impact. A mistake of 0.000001 in their calculation and we are all toast.

An asteroid the size of an aircraft carrier will come closer to Earth this autumn than our own moon does

I hope it impacts somewhere.
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#3
Quote:Asteroid 2005 YU55 is about 1,300 feet (400 meters) wide. It was discovered in December 2005 by the Spacewatch program at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

They have been tracking it for over 5 years now.

Plenty of time to determine an accurate orbit.
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#4
If you go to SpaceWeather.com, you can see all the NEOs and the pertinent data for them. Just scroll down from the shot of the two raging sunspots, and check out the list. Right now there is a 10 metre object due to arrive inside the moon's orbit on June 2nd.

Some of these are over a kilometer in diameter. Can you imagine will would happen When one strikes us?
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#5
be patient, the chance is good that something small hits in your lifetime. a shame that the probability of it plunging into a city is small, it'll make a few waves in the ocean, or dust in the deserts.
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#6
We will definitely be hit several times in an average lifetime. The Tunguska Event is perhaps the largest of the 20th century. And note the revised estimate downward in size. That Impactor most likely is debris from a former comet that had already vented it's lighter gases and was composed of lose rock.

I also know of one that was recorded in the late 70s, off the coast of South Africa. At the time US Missile Command noted an atmospheric detonation and thought it was an example of South Africa's nuclear weapons program. We know now that SA did not have such a program, and it had to have been an Impactor.

Your imagination can easily visualize what this could have caused had it detonated over London, DC, or Moscow. At the time we were just beginning to realize that Eugine Shoemaker was right: All those craters on the lunar surface were not from ancient volcanoes, but from Impactors. We could have easily gotten into WWIII and all over a mistaken identity.
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#7
Here is also something that must be considered. It's possible that there is an Impactor with our name on it, and we have not found it yet.

Here is an example, I discovered while going through SpaceWeather.com. Today, I checked the 'near hit' chart and since the last time I was there, we have had an NEO whiz by us unseen. Granted, it was only a 5 metre diameter object, but we still should have caught it.

Go here to the May 9th page. Now scroll down to the third one, 2011 JV10. If you go back to the day before, it wasn't recorded. This means we didn't catch it until After it had made it's appearance, and was on the way out.

I tend to find this a bit disquieting in that there are still huge numbers of unrecorded objects moving around the inner solar system, and the odds are that we are going to be caught in the cross hairs sooner, rather than later. And the next one may not be just 5 metres, but 50 metres, or perhaps 500 metres. Talk about the shit hitting the fan.
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#8
Q Wrote:it'll make a few waves in the ocean
Wouldn't it be funny if it could fall near Fukushima? S2
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#9
Here is the latest discovery: 2011MD. It was not entered into the SpaceWeather.com NEO chart until yesterday, June 23rd. This is brand new, and the asteroid will pass within lunar orbit on the 27th of this month. And it will pass within 12,000 km of the planet. It's only 13 metres in diameter(large bus), but what if it had been 100 metres or larger? And what if the calculations are incorrect, and it enters the atmosphere and strikes the planet?

And how many others are out there, just buzzing around, ready to hit us when we are not looking?

Quote:ASTEROID FLYBY: – Asteroid will pass 12, 000 Km (7,500 miles) from Earth

[Image: 2011md_ca4.gif]

Newly-discovered asteroid 2011 MD will pass only 12,000 kilometers (7,500 miles) above Earth’s surface on Monday June 27 at about 9:30 a.m. EDT. NASA analysts say there is no chance the space rock will strike Earth. Nevertheless, the encounter is so close that Earth’s gravity will sharply alter the asteroid’s trajectory.

At closest approach, 2011 MD will pass in broad daylight over the southern Atlantic Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. As the asteroid recedes from Earth, it will pass through the zone of geosynchronous satellites. The chances of a collision with a satellite or manmade space junk are extremely small, albeit not zero.

Judging from the brightness of the asteroid, it measures only 5 to 20 meters in diameter. According to JPL’s Near Earth Object Program office, one would expect an object of this size to come this close to Earth about every 6 years on average. For a brief time, it will be bright enough to be seen even with a medium-sized backyard telescope.
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#10
(06-24-2011, 01:55 PM)John L Wrote: Here is the latest discovery: 2011MD. It was not entered into the SpaceWeather.com NEO chart until yesterday, June 23rd. This is brand new, and the asteroid will pass within lunar orbit on the 27th of this month. And it will pass within 12,000 km of the planet. It's only 13 metres in diameter(large bus), but what if it had been 100 metres or larger? And what if the calculations are incorrect, and it enters the atmosphere and strikes the planet?

And how many others are out there, just buzzing around, ready to hit us when we are not looking?

Quote:ASTEROID FLYBY: – Asteroid will pass 12, 000 Km (7,500 miles) from Earth

[Image: 2011md_ca4.gif]

Newly-discovered asteroid 2011 MD will pass only 12,000 kilometers (7,500 miles) above Earth’s surface on Monday June 27 at about 9:30 a.m. EDT. NASA analysts say there is no chance the space rock will strike Earth. Nevertheless, the encounter is so close that Earth’s gravity will sharply alter the asteroid’s trajectory.

At closest approach, 2011 MD will pass in broad daylight over the southern Atlantic Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. As the asteroid recedes from Earth, it will pass through the zone of geosynchronous satellites. The chances of a collision with a satellite or manmade space junk are extremely small, albeit not zero.

Judging from the brightness of the asteroid, it measures only 5 to 20 meters in diameter. According to JPL’s Near Earth Object Program office, one would expect an object of this size to come this close to Earth about every 6 years on average. For a brief time, it will be bright enough to be seen even with a medium-sized backyard telescope.

pretty scary when you see it so close to the earth compared to the moon. maybe it will hit some chinese debris S5
"If people weren't so hypocritical, they would donate more of their time and their money to directly help their causes. Instead they want the government to force me to give them my time and my money." - Catpiss, The Great
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#11
Yeah, its frightening if you are a strategic thinker.

As we learn more, we discover that almost every major catastrophic event of global proportions, is caused by celestial objects. That is why Eugene Shoemaker is my favorite scientist.
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#12
Incidentally, here is another article on Space.com, about the asteroid Fred mentions above. It's a whopper, and cataloged as threat. Sooner or later, it is going to smack into us, with devastating results.

And here another one.
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#13
This is bullshit. Why do they always just miss?
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#14
(07-20-2011, 12:18 AM)Gunnen4u Wrote: This is bullshit. Why do they always just miss?

Bad luck of the draw, I guess. But don't worry too much, it will be coming around many, many times more, along with a host of even bigger asteroids. One is bound to enter the atmosphere soon.

Then everyone can enjoy a high Pucker Factor.

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#15
When one does seem about to enter the atmosphere, you can bet that the Democrats will raise taxes. Another crisis, you know.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#16
I'd love to see them throw literal money at it like they do everything else.
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#17
Don't worry, if the small asteroid hit the Earth you will be able to blame Obama for it.
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#18
Would the Secret Service take exception if someone were to paint a bulls-eye target on the roof of the White House?
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#19
(07-26-2011, 11:53 AM)Ron Lambert Wrote: Would the Secret Service take exception if someone were to paint a bulls-eye target on the roof of the White House?
I'll take up a collection to buy you the paint for you doing this.

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#20
You hate him that much, huh?

What about all the collateral damage?
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