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Middle East Meltdown - 1
#41
Oh, and there's this little gem. Does this remind one of the late 70s, and the Carter-Iranian situation, where Carter actually worked to overthrow the Shah? And what did we get as a result?
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"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

#42
Quote:The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

(from JohnL's link)

three years -- so this started under Junior? Interesting... Wink1

The parallel with Carter is indeed amusing. By 2012 we will also have Carterisque inflation. There is one difference, however: Reagan was an obvious alternative to look to .. there is nobody at the moment among GOP contenders that is inspiring. So we may be facing two-term Bastard... and full and final destruction of the US.
Sodomia delenda est

#43
There have been cliques within State all during Bush's time in office working at cross purposes with his aims. It was hard to rein in the Vallerie Plames, who did all they could to further their own agenda at the expense of Bush and his administration. There were many Clinton hold-overs, appointees, and cronies still sitting like Chesire Cats doing their damnedest to throw monkey wrenches wherever they could.

More importantly, however, I don't doubt there were people looking at possible leaders in many countries. "Backing" them may be true - but these were probably efforts to get on the inside of many possible future leaders. The goals in such efforts are not always black and white. Were they perceived to be moderates who may affect future relations? Were they crooks who could be bought off and subverted? Were they just misidentified - or worse, fair-weather friends who said one thing to garner support, then changed their stripes when they actually got near power?

Remember, we were still building up our Humint resources after the Carter-era wholesale firing of our best agents. In 1976 under President Carter, Admiral Stansfield Turner, with no professional Intelligence experience, was appointed the Director of the CIA. He decided to cut 820 positions within the CIA Operations Directorate. The Clandestine services have never recovered from that blow. "Every Director of Central Intelligence since then has tried in vain to "rebuild" the operational capability of the CIA."

Humint was reduced wholesale as the Berlin wall fell and the Cold War apparently ended. As the USSR supposedly crumbled, it still maintained a long-ranged plan using Aldrich Ames and Robert Philip Hanssen to identify our embedded agents and remove them. From the start of Perestroika in 1984, our ability to gather eyeball intelligence from all the hotspots in the world came to a screeching halt. (You can search for more on the "Perestroika Deception" by Anatoliy Golitsyn.)

In the later part of Clinton's administration - our humint was so devastated that our intelligence community begged for more field operators. We had no more than 4 "spy handlers" being trained to develop them, and a Clinton decree that we could not "hire" third party intel if the intel contract worker had a criminal record. (As opposed to George Tennant coming in under Bush and immediately having nearly 100 "spy handlers" being trained.) Clinton's administration made the decision to use satellite surveillance instead of humint, and most critics thought that was short-sighted, even before the Clinton administration handed over our entire crown jewels of intelligence in both our nuclear technology and satellite uplink technology to the Chinese, and by extension, anyone who wanted to buy it

In other words. The effort to rebuild our Humint requires us to reach out to people behind the scenes. It is not out of place or wrong.
#44
A clique in State trying to destabilize Egypt behind Bush' back?

YES! And it goes back to 2005!.
Sodomia delenda est

#45
Well, Rice was right. Too bad Junior decided that military intervention was better than promoting Liberty abroad, through example.

Hey, any time you lie in the gutter with dogs, you are bound to catch fleas.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

#46
Democracy in the Arab World, either by force or by example, does not seem to work all that well. In fact, imposing any political structure on any culture does not seem to work well. And political experimentation in an important country is just not smart.

Here is another flashback, from Barnett..... remember the fellow? His explanation of the US strategy as gap-filling was an interesting one... but his optimism is unfounded.

Democracy in Action: Egyptians target Mummies.
Sodomia delenda est

#47
mv Wrote:Democracy in the Arab World, either by force or by example, does not seem to work all that well. In fact, imposing any political structure on any culture does not seem to work well. And political experimentation in an important country is just not smart.

Here is another flashback, from Barnett..... remember the fellow?

Vaguely remember him, but he was right on back then. This is going to be one rough row to hoe.

However, equally important is still the issue of Pakistan. When will this explode?

I still highly recommend building one Huge Fence around all the world of Islam.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

#48
For those in the tank, Barnett wrote the book, "Pentagon's New Map" several years ago. He used the term "gap" to describe the region that does not yet have Western-style political system and not yet integrated into the world economy. Islamic world is the biggest component of the Gap; but Gap also includes big part of Africa and parts of Latin America and even Europe. He stated that the selective wars carried by the US aim at subduing the gap region; thus wars in Yugoslavia were to erase the European part of the Gap by breaking Yugoslavia into easily digestible pieces...

AQ of course then becomes an anti-globalization force, defenders of the Gap from the Invaders.

As for AQ: Bin Laden is celebrating today, his idea was to use US overreaction to trigger popular uprisings....took longer than he planned, but happened. Perhaps, Al Zawahiri is the next Egyptian president?

Also, Deb(IL)ka.
Sodomia delenda est

#49
looks like the international community has given up mubarak, everybody hurries to ask him to resign. who'll be next? we had a japs on our tv who mentioned how important egypt is for the peace in the middle east, and who contemplated el baradei for president. indeed, a good man who understands that the regime of israel may possess nucular weapons despite defying every international agreement, while iran must be bullied for doing something perfectly legal, building a nucular power plant.
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
#50
Does anyone know which kind of Muslim is the "good man" El Baradei (Sunny or Shitty) ?

.....

Egyptian Army joins the mobs?
Sodomia delenda est

#51
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/2011012...rotherhood

Looting engulfs Cairo, other Egyptian cities
Sodomia delenda est

#52
I figure that by Monday, Mubarak will have fled Egypt. He would have to use the military to crack heads, and my guess is that the military will not condone it.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

#53
80 million strong Hamasistan? Wink1
Sodomia delenda est

#54
The Tunisian revolt has its official name:
The Jasmine Revolution.
Now spreading to Jordan (albeit modestly)

People wish it be peceful, have moderate demands. In Tunisia it's practicaly solved as most of the protesters are satisified form the current changes. In Egypt the army is friendly with the protesters.

The Jasmine Revolution is supported by the West.
Local professors compare it to the fall of the Berlin wall, the Arab Perestroika?
The only similarity could be that it's financed by the West too.

The Islamists keep a very low profile in this wave of protest. And this is very positive. If there is change without the rise of Islamists this region will improve.
So far islamists seemed to have been the only force of opposition and the only hope for the poor.
It would be very clever for the West to built a laic opposition force in these countries. That won't be wasted money.
#55
I wasn't familiar with the Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, but he is an interesting figure. His government implemented many free-market reforms that attracted foreign investment and tripled Tunisia's GDP. Ben Ali also attempted to combat terrorism with a 'National Solidarity Fund' directed at poor communities where terrorist recruitment is common.

Ben Ali's interests seemed fairly consistent with those of the West.
#56
All North African Countries save Lybia, had a free-market and pro-west policy and growing GDP. Tunisia did quiet well at a certain time.
But poverty, corruption, waste remained and poeple demanded a better governement. If in the West we demand that, while we already have everything, it's normal that the poors demand that too.
#57
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/2011012...ial-report
Sodomia delenda est

#58
you ought to frame this: AP admits that Muslim Brotherhood is a leftist group.

Quote:AMMAN, Jordan (AP) - The leader of Jordan's powerful Muslim Brotherhood warned Saturday that unrest in Egypt will spread across the Mideast and Arabs will topple leaders allied with the United States.

.......................

About 100 members of the fundamentalist group and activists from other leftist organizations and trade unions chanted "Mubarak, step down" and "the decision is made, the people's revolt will remain."
Sodomia delenda est

#59
oh dear, the tunisian khameney is back. http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-...1a9vb.html

i guess a couple of egyptian clerics also envision to return from burgundy to kick some israeli ass.
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
#60
The US and the EU are closely watching.
El-Baradei will form the next governement and is the guy of the West.
We may see islamic parties like in Turkey, which are good to catalize the religous fervor and the anti-american hatred herein. In Tunisia, the Islamists are moderate. In Egypt less so. It would be smart for the West to fund a moderate islamist movement to steal votes from the Muslim Brotherhood in future elections, and a laic movement at the same time.


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