Chavez, Russia, & Arms Sales

[John L]

Selling Venezuela helicopters and jet aircraft is one thing, but 1800 advanced Surface to air missiles? Does Venezuela really intend to keep them all, and pay off it's 4 billion dollar debt to Russia?

Venezuela acquires 1,800 antiaircraft missiles from Russia

Russia delivered at least 1,800 shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles to Venezuela in 2009, U.N. arms control data show, despite vigorous U.S. efforts to stop President Hugo Chavez's stridently anti-American government from acquiring the weapons.

The United States feared that the missiles could be funneled to Marxist guerrillas fighting Colombia's pro-American government or Mexican drug cartels, concerns expressed in U.S. diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks and first reported in the Spanish newspaper El Pais.

Several things here:

First, does anyone believe Uncle Hugo will keep them all for himself?

Second, how many will wind up in the ranks of FARC, to fight his neighbor, Colombia?

Third, How much will the Mexican drug cartels pay for a bunch, since they are rolling in cash?

Third, look at how we have discovered this fact.

Fourth, will Uncle Hugo be able to pay off his loan, if he sells half of them to the drug cartels?

And Lastly, is this just another exception to "peace loving Socialism", or standard fare?

[neorealist]

Selling Venezuela helicopters and jet aircraft is one thing, but 1800 advanced Surface to air missiles? Does Venezuela really intend to keep them all, and pay off it's 4 billion dollar debt to Russia?

Venezuela acquires 1,800 antiaircraft missiles from Russia

Russia delivered at least 1,800 shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles to Venezuela in 2009, U.N. arms control data show, despite vigorous U.S. efforts to stop President Hugo Chavez's stridently anti-American government from acquiring the weapons.

The United States feared that the missiles could be funneled to Marxist guerrillas fighting Colombia's pro-American government or Mexican drug cartels, concerns expressed in U.S. diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks and first reported in the Spanish newspaper El Pais.

Several things here:

First, does anyone believe Uncle Hugo will keep them all for himself?

Second, how many will wind up in the ranks of FARC, to fight his neighbor, Colombia?

Third, How much will the Mexican drug cartels pay for a bunch, since they are rolling in cash?

Third, look at how we have discovered this fact.

Fourth, will Uncle Hugo be able to pay off his loan, if he sells half of them to the drug cartels?

And Lastly, is this just another exception to "peace loving Socialism", or standard fare?

Looks like we can count on increased defense exports (and FMF) to Columbia...while these are certainly more advanced than past Soviet MANPANDS, they are still defensive SAMs with limits on range...plus public domain states that there are countermeasures with regard to IR/gas cooled seekers. Additionally, IR only seekers have issues when fired straight up in the air and chasing the sun (literately) and would have a difficult time chasing new compact drones that do not carry a large heat signature.

Definitely concerning if they get into the hand of a cartel, but if drug lords starting firing of missiles at our assets, they can expect a level of handling that they are ill equipped to deal with. They can't exactly bribe off a US intel agency like they do with the mexican police. If the cartels acquire SSM, I'd be more concerned.

[jt]

Which "advanced surface to air missiles" are these? If known, their properties could be found on the web. If they find use as anti chopper weapons in Columbia, that could be a problem.