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New incentive to fortify the border-Climate change?
#1
Here is something I did not think I would find in the Jewish World Review. The crux of the story is that with 'Global Warming' becoming greater, Mexicans will be migrating north, into the US, because of crop failure in Mexico. Does this make any sense? Does a warmer climate make for worse conditions? Or is it just the opposite?

Quote:New incentive to fortify the border? Climate change linked to mass Mexican migration to U.S.

By Anna Gorman

Climbing temperatures are expected to raise sea levels and increase droughts, floods, heat waves and wildfires.

Now, scientists are predicting another consequence of climate change — mass migration to the United States.

Between 1.4 million and 6.7 million Mexicans could migrate to the U.S. by 2080 as climate change reduces crop yields and agricultural production in Mexico, according to a study published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The number could amount to 10 percent of the current population of Mexicans ages 15 to 65.

"Assuming that the climate projections are correct, gradually over the next several decades heading toward the end of the century, it becomes one of the more important factors in driving Mexicans across the border, all other things being equal," said study author Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University.

Of course, Oppenheimer acknowledged, all things will not remain equal. Changes could occur in U.S. immigration and border policy or in Mexico's economy and its reliance on agriculture. But he said this was a simplified first step in studying the effect of global warming on migration.

"Our primary objectives were, No. 1, to give policymakers something to think about and, No. 2, to give researchers a spur to start answering some of the more complicated questions," Oppenheimer said.

Oppenheimer teamed up with two economists, Alan B. Krueger and Shuaizhang Feng, to study the connection between agricultural decline and migration. They looked at Mexican emigration, crop yield and climate data from 1995 to 2005 to make estimates about the next 70 years.

In the past, Oppenheimer said, Mexican farmers from rural areas fled to the United States when they could no longer grow their crops. If the rising temperatures dry out the land and reduce yield as expected, many more farmers could do the same.

Philip Martin, an expert in agricultural economics at the University of California, Davis, said that he hadn't read the study but that making estimates based solely on climate change was virtually impossible.

"It is just awfully hard to separate climate change from the many, many other factors that affect people's decisions whether to stay in agriculture or move," he said.

Over the last 20 years, Mexico has seen a decline in the percentage of people who live in rural areas, Martin said. But much of that is because of economic growth in the nation. "As countries get richer, people leave agriculture," he said.

Nevertheless, Martin agreed that global warming could make farming more difficult and lead to more emigration.

Douglas Massey, a sociology professor of at Princeton, also agreed that climate change could lead to emigration from Mexico, but much of that will depend on labor demand in the U.S.

"Environmental change is not going to produce migrants from Mexico unless there are jobs to go to," he said in an e-mail.

According to the study, other countries and regions dependent on agriculture could also see a similar exodus. Among the areas mentioned are much of Africa, India, Bangladesh and Latin America.

But Massey expressed skepticism about generalizing to other countries, because Mexico and the U.S. have a 60-year migrant history and share a 2,000-mile border. Mexico is also well connected to the U.S. labor demand through social networks.

"When economic shocks like climate change hit other developing countries … displacements from the countryside may happen, but they are not likely to produce so many international migrants," Massey said.

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“Don’t confuse me with facts, my mind is made up” — Saint Al of the Gore -
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#2
Leave it to the "scientists". Don't they realize they are treading in dangerous waters with this "fact"?
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#3
What really is enlightening is that warmer conditions will actually tend to produce a wetter clime within the 'dessert zone' around the equator. And Mexico falls within that zone. If we compare the North African Sahara Desert, at the warmest part of this Holocene(8,000 Years bp), the entire region was quite moist, with rivers, plain, and great numbers of animals.

Knowing that, why would we actually expect Mexico to be drier? It makes no real sense, unless one suspects the scientists here to have an agenda, they are trying to push.

Now, if we are actually going to be going into a cooling period, which I have contended for some time now, it is entirely possible for Mexico to become drier. If that occurs, then we may need to ensure a fence is all along the border. But that is just the opposite of the article's point.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
“Don’t confuse me with facts, my mind is made up” — Saint Al of the Gore -
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#4
If the Rio Grande freezes over, we will have to call them "icebacks".

I sure hope this "illegal alien" problem gets solved before the next climate change.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#5
Why don't we just teraform the expanse of desert between us and Mexico and spray fertilizer and seeds and give them a reason to stay in their territory?
[Image: 760.png]
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#6
I prefer land mines.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#7
ghoullio Wrote:Why don't we just teraform the expanse of desert between us and Mexico and spray fertilizer and seeds and give them a reason to stay in their territory?
I've always said the easiest solution is to allow Mexican citizens the mineral rights and property rights that we enjoy here in America. By doing so, the people would invest in their own land and not look at it as a feudal system, just doing the business of the big families.
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#8
John L Wrote:What really is enlightening is that warmer conditions will actually tend to produce a wetter clime within the 'dessert zone' around the equator.
around the equator is the wet tropical zone, silly. followed by a belt of dry climate to the north and south, followed in turn by a wet belt on both hemispheres, followed by the dry polar regions.
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#9
quadrat Wrote:
John L Wrote:What really is enlightening is that warmer conditions will actually tend to produce a wetter clime within the 'dessert zone' around the equator.
around the equator is the wet tropical zone, silly. followed by a belt of dry climate to the north and south, followed in turn by a wet belt on both hemispheres, followed by the dry polar regions.

Basically you are correct. However, a warmer climate will lead to more evaporation, which will put more moisture into those belts. This means that the dry zones will become smaller. Do you not understand this "Q"?

Let me see if I can find those two world maps which show what the world climate was like before and after the end of the Pleistocene.

Here is what things looked like at the height of the last glaciation. Note the large land masses of 'extreme desert'. Most of the moisture was locked up in glaciation.

[Image: lastgla.gif]

Here is what the planet looked like when the global temperatures were warmer than today. Note that there are only two small area with 'extreme desert' land.

[Image: earlyho.gif]

And here is what it is like today. Note that there are far more 'extreme desert' land mass than during the warmer period of the Holocene. Does this tell you something "Q"? Or do you fail to understand that warmer is better, as I have been shouting for years?

[Image: pres-pot.gif]
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
“Don’t confuse me with facts, my mind is made up” — Saint Al of the Gore -
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#10
jt Wrote:If the Rio Grande freezes over, we will have to call them "icebacks".

Are you serious?

Do you have derogatory term for illegal European immigrants? Or just the one's from latin America?

If this is joke, its a horrible failure.
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#11
Quote:Do you have derogatory term for illegal European immigrants? Or just the one's from latin America?

I call them all criminals who need to be sent back where they came from until they can learn to do it the right way.
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#12
Huh...What? Wrote:
Quote:Do you have derogatory term for illegal European immigrants? Or just the one's from latin America?

I call them all criminals who need to be sent back where they came from until they can learn to do it the right way.

Good for you. Calling an illegal immigrant a criminal is a statement of fact. One who breaks the law is a criminal.

jt's term is nothing like that.

I'm still wondering what he calls the estimated 3 plus million illegal immigrants from Asia, or Europe?
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#13
Why are your feelings hurt?

Back in the day there were terms for European immigrants, but they aren't as popular anymore.

I am sure someone has a term for illegal Asians, but they don't seem to such a disaster like illegal Hispanics are. Been to El Paso? Seen what happens when they degrade everything to the dump they came from? I doubt it.

Grow a thicker skin and quit crying about this stuff. All that indignity you have just makes "icebacks" funnier. You trying to feel sorry for someone else?

BTW, they would be icebacks as they crossed over the ice to get here largely, as the term wetback applies now to illegal Hispanics.

Jt's joke was humorous on my end that's for certain.
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#14
Gunnen4u Wrote:Why are your feelings hurt?

Back in the day there were terms for European immigrants, but they aren't as popular anymore.

I am sure someone has a term for illegal Asians, but they don't seem to such a disaster like illegal Hispanics are.

Yeah, they are a real disaster. That's why corporate executives, restaurant owners, construction firms, and big agri-business all care so much about getting rid of them, right?

Corporate America knows that illegal immigrants are good for business. The educated and the wealthy understand this. Corporate executives understand this. They understand how Americans benefits from all of that cheap labor. They don't have to compete directly with illegal immigrants, so why not have them here to keep costs down for my firm, and prices down for my customers? An illegal Mexican laborer will work harder than a lazy uneducated white guy any day of the week anyway.

You know who is mostly against illegal immigration? Uneducated whites who don't know how to avoid paying taxes, and who have to compete with illegals for jobs.

Quote:Been to El Paso? Seen what happens when they degrade everything to the dump they came from? I doubt it.

I've never seen El Paso. But I lived in Texas for 7 years and made many trips to Laredo. Laredo didn't look any worse than most other small Texas towns. But, that is all besides the point. Why didn't you use the border town San Diego, CA as an example? Right, because San Diego isn't the dump that El Paso is, and it doesn't help your point at all.

If illegal immigration is El Paso's problem, does it not stand to reason that San Diego would be equally dumpy? But it isn't. The real reason is that educated, wealthy American's don't go near El Paso. Nobody with capital is sending it to El Paso because the education is low, and its in the middle of nowhere, and there isn't much disposable income. There are no good jobs there for the educated. There are no cultural centers. Plus, its too hot. That's why El Paso is a dump.

Quote:Grow a thicker skin and quit crying about this stuff. All that indignity you have just makes "icebacks" funnier. You trying to feel sorry for someone else?

I am offended his reference to "wetback" because it is a racial slur. Sorry dude. But, if growing a thicker skin means ignoring racial slurs, then I think I will remain thin skinned.

Quote:BTW, they would be icebacks as they crossed over the ice to get here largely, as the term wetback applies now to illegal Hispanics.

I'm shocked that you think this term applies. Racial slurs never apply anywhere.

Quote:Jt's joke was humorous on my end that's for certain.

I don't see the humor in racial slurs. Maybe that's just me.
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#15
Brooklyn Wrote:
jt Wrote:If the Rio Grande freezes over, we will have to call them "icebacks".

Are you serious?

Do you have derogatory term for illegal European immigrants? Or just the one's from latin America?

If this is joke, its a horrible failure.
I think you are being much to PC about this.

Around 1910, people were much more forthright about their opinions of various white ethnic groups. I know this from stories my dad told me. Everybody in these groups went on to success in this land of freedom in spite of what you would call "grievous insults". Being thin skinned in those days was not common. Victimology is a modern invention.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#16
Living in NY, Brooklyn should be familiar with the slurs "wop" and "dago".
Wop means "with out papers".
Different eyes see different things. Different hearts beat on different strings.
But there are times for you and me when all such things agree.
-Geddy Lee, Rush.
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#17
jt Wrote:
Brooklyn Wrote:
jt Wrote:If the Rio Grande freezes over, we will have to call them "icebacks".

Are you serious?

Do you have derogatory term for illegal European immigrants? Or just the one's from latin America?

If this is joke, its a horrible failure.
I think you are being much to PC about this.

Around 1910, people were much more forthright about their opinions of various white ethnic groups. I know this from stories my dad told me. Everybody in these groups went on to success in this land of freedom in spite of what you would call "grievous insults". Being thin skinned in those days was not common. Victimology is a modern invention.

I don't think so. I know many Mexicans, here legally, that have been called wetbacks. Let me just say that it was very insulting to them. While this term may have started as something else, it has become a derogatory term meant to belittle ALL hispanics, here illegally or not.

Perhaps, you meant no ill. There is no reason not to believe you. But, it's not 1901 anymore.

Quote:Living in NY, Brooklyn should be familiar with the slurs "wop" and "dago". Wop means "with out papers".

I'm not from NY. I'm here for my career. I grew up in Louisiana, so while I'm not familiar with those terms, I knew exactly what people were doing when they used the term "wetback".

Anyway, I've said my piece.
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