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Analysis of a Wise Iraqi Young Man on Recent Changes in Iraq
I think the combination of the agreement committments over in Cairo and suddenly comments about plans for a US downsizing in 2006 from our side are not a coincidence. I think we have a major political change ongoing.

November 22 input

What the guy seem to be saying that the join call of the Iraqis for the US withdrawal was sanctioned by the US?

This is very hard to take seriously. A partial withdrawal is likely, and it does not need any Iraqi call; a full withdrawal, which *I think* the Cairo talks assume, is not something the US wants to discuss now.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


It is too much common committment to it from both sides,there has been a deal struck. Condi Rice joined the fray yesterday,these people don't make noises like this for nothing.

The Sunnis are being brought into the polity,IMO. Think about it MV,these people LIVE there,we are just having academic debate.

What do I see from my vantage point? I see a Sunni revolt that by and large has been overthrown by jihadists and the normal Sunni KNOWS we are short termers,does he desire losing his culture to wahabbi control?

I think THEY are at the point where they understand,we want out,what do THEY want and it is not wahabbi governance or a massacre fighting the 80%.

I think WE are at the point where WE know WE cannot sustain this committment beyond late 2006. We can't either,we will have run out the string by then with the VOLAR and clearly we are not going to draft soldiers. Ask any military man,late 2006 and it's over for us in Iraq ,ask Jedburgh here.

We can leave brigades available for emergency recall in Kuwait and a far reduced contingent in Iraq,but late 2006 is going to see a major change in Iraq,IMO.

Everyone knows this.

Here's a blurb to support my thesis


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