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Quote:North Korea on brink of first nuclear blast, warn Americans
By Francis Harris in Washington - Telegraph UK
(Filed: 07/05/2005)

America's spy satellites have detected frenetic activity in North Korea indicating that the secretive Stalinist state is on the verge of detonating a nuclear weapon for the first time.

The preparations include the construction of a reviewing stand that might be used by Pyongyang's leadership to observe a test explosion.

Intelligence officers regard that as highly significant since Kim Jong-il's regime constructed a similar stand seven years ago when it fired a new missile over Japan, an act which triggered a major regional security crisis.

Three United States officials described evidence of extensive tunnelling in the country's north-east in an area called Kilchu, similar to that required for an underground nuclear blast, the New York Times reported. The work was said to resemble the activity associated with Pakistan's nuclear test in 1998.

North Korea is believed to have received advice on its nuclear weapons programme from A Q Khan, the father of Pakistan's bomb, who ran a "nuclear supermarket" for would-be atomic states. He visited North Korea repeatedly before the network was broken up by the CIA and MI6.

The activity could not be explained by commercial mining, American officials said. To prepare an underground test site, earth is removed and a nuclear device is placed deep underground before the spoil is reused to seal up the shaft.

The aim is to keep the radioactivity underground. "You see them … taking material back into the mine to plug it up," an official explained. Bush administration officials told the newspaper that it was possible that the activity was designed to fool the Americans, to ratchet up the pressure on them to give ground to the impoverished state in negotiations.

"The North Koreans have learned how to use irrationality as a bargaining tool," a senior source said.

On Thursday, President George W Bush made a lengthy telephone call to Hu Jintao, the Chinese president, during which they discussed North Korea. Washington has also passed the intelligence material to its allies in the region, including Japan and South Korea.

That appeared to explain a hardening of the Japanese position yesterday, when it warned North Korea that, unless it rejoined six party talks on the issue, Tokyo would consider referring the issue to the United Nations Security Council.

Pyongyang, which is seeking to extract economic concessions from the stand-off, withdrew from the talks last year and has given warning that it would regard the imposition of sanctions as a declaration of war.

But yesterday it said officials might return to talks ''if the United States shows trustworthy attitudes and arranges right terms and conditions".

North Korea has become expert at the art of panicking its neighbours and the West.

The country is widely viewed as a crippled and paranoid member of the international community, exporting drugs and missiles to fund a lush lifestyle for its leaders and cash to make nuclear weapons.

More than one million North Koreans are thought to have starved to death in recent years.
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The chances for a solution are growing slim.

Give the populace food through an NGO - the Gov't will take it as they hold all power over the people.

Give them what they want, buying into blackmail - they will want more.

UN imposes resolutions - N. Korea will 'declare War'.

Pressure China - they will not budge and have increased trade to N. Korea by 20%.

This bullshit has to stop and unfortunately, its probably not going to be without bloodshed.
Quote:Pressure China - they will not budge and have increased trade to N. Korea by 20%.
I tend to think that NK is China proxy. If I am correct, then the opposite is true: increased pressure on China (to the point that turns NK into heavy liability) would improve the situation.
Yea - not a new concept.

But they haven't budged despite urgings from several foreign leaders.
I am wondering if this is the same gunnen4u that posted on Pro American?
Quote:The chances for a solution are growing slim.

Give the populace food through an NGO - the Gov't will take it as they hold all power over the people.

Give them what they want, buying into blackmail - they will want more.

UN imposes resolutions - N. Korea will 'declare War'.

Pressure China - they will not budge and have increased trade to N. Korea by 20%.

This bullshit has to stop and unfortunately, its probably not going to be without bloodshed
Good Post.
The Solution to the DPRK is not with China or anyone else. China has influence up to a point. Both of the "Beloved leaders" Dad and Son suffer from the same Mental Dysfunction. The current leader is more pronounced and less stable.
China knows this and so they go only so far. However if Kim Jong Il goes too far. China will slap them down.
China uses North Korea as a Fulcrum to lever political, and financial gain unto themselves and those they support. Works too. Up to a point.
If the DPRK ever seriously considered firing a Nuc, it would be, Pave the Country over, time North of the 38th parallel.
Kim is not so Dysfunctional that he does not know this. He is stupid enough to keep playing right up to the line.
We continue to watch him and will do so for quite some time into the future.
How are you dong by the way. Still posting at Pro American?
Yes it is. He is here at my invite. BTY, welcome aboard Eagle. Nice to see that you found my signature link. Wink1

As you will note, this forum is somewhat different than ItsAllPolitics. It is a bit more reflective, and most of the big gung over there are here as well. Anyway, this is a nice little forum to come home and prop up your feet while sipping a good brew or wine.

I hope you enjoy it here.

John
The NK thing is a heck of a dilemma. Not a chance of an invasion,they already can't trade with anyone but China.
John L Wrote:Yes it is. He is here at my invite. BTY, welcome aboard Eagle. Nice to see that you found my signature link. Wink1

As you will note, this forum is somewhat different than ItsAllPolitics. It is a bit more reflective, and most of the big gung over there are here as well. Anyway, this is a nice little forum to come home and prop up your feet while sipping a good brew or wine.

I hope you enjoy it here.

John
If gunnen4u likes it, it must be alright. Thanks for the reception.
Palladin Wrote:The NK thing is a heck of a dilemma. Not a chance of an invasion,they already can't trade with anyone but China.
A distraction at it's worst.
They trade with Vietnam and Syria, Russia, as well as a few others Biggest problem is, their broke. The number one counterfeiter of American money? DPRK. North Korea.
eaglestrikes Wrote:If gunnen4u likes it, it must be alright. Thanks for the reception.

Yes - I still post at Pro-American, though Communist and Socialistic anal warts are threatening to overrun it sometimes.

I like this place about the same, if not more then Pro-American.

Where have you been?

Perhaps an under-the-table solution to the N. Korea mess would be to undercut China. The ChiComms are now wanting to control blogs, websites, and the internent over there in general.

Now may be the high time to sow the seeds dissent and mass disruption through the internet and spurr people.

There has been "Orange Revolutions" in the Ukraine, Lebanon, Georgia, Krygyzstan, and other nations, so why not forment one in China?

Rather then going after a Chinese funding side-show distraction, why not go after them before they make more plans against Taiwan?
Gunnen4u Wrote:
eaglestrikes Wrote:If gunnen4u likes it, it must be alright. Thanks for the reception.

Yes - I still post at Pro-American, though Communist and Socialistic anal warts are threatening to overrun it sometimes.

I like this place about the same, if not more then Pro-American.

Where have you been?

Perhaps an under-the-table solution to the N. Korea mess would be to undercut China. The ChiComms are now wanting to control blogs, websites, and the internent over there in general.

Now may be the high time to sow the seeds dissent and mass disruption through the internet and spurr people.

There has been "Orange Revolutions" in the Ukraine, Lebanon, Georgia, Krygyzstan, and other nations, so why not forment one in China?

Rather then going after a Chinese funding side-show distraction, why not go after them before they make more plans against Taiwan?

Where have I been? See my E to you.
ChiComs still exist but not in large numbers. It is more Socialistic than Communist. Hence the sudden appearance of a middle class over there with the subsequent upswing in industry trade and profit.
The real problem is the Socialistic Upper Class that has taken over.
They are traditional Chinese. Throwbacks to the Days of the Boxers.
More dangerous, and less trustworthy than the Chi Coms.
Biggest problem dealing with the North Koreans is that they are stuck in a world that does not exist anymore. They are truly the Hermit Country.
To undercut would require some way of cutting in the first place. Can not do that. That country is shut down tighter than a Drum. North Koreans (the people) want to be free. Problem is they are unarmed. End of story.
As to Taiwan. China will posture on that as they have done for years. They will not attack. The middle class likes the peace and quiet and the profits they are getting from trade. Start a war and who do you trade with?
The seeds of discontent are sown in both South and North Korea. Those seeds are wind blown into Taiwan. The populations of all three countries are split on the division issue. Hence China agitates as does North Korea for the purpose of achieving political gain. Look at the situation in Hong Kong which is where the financial revolution in China actually started. When there where mass protest the Chinese did not responded with overwhelming Military or even Police presence. They replaced the Administrator.
It's one Reason President Bush does not get all excited about them.
In their own time they will fall, as did Russia, and East Germany, and all the other Soviet Satellites, from within.
It seems to me that nuclear weapons, realistically, is like the water behind the dike. Nuclear reactors will become common place in the future when fossil fuel dries up. The spent rods together with the knowledge which has already been leaked to the world will allow almost any nation to have nuclear weapons. Whether it be North Korea, or Iran, it is only a matter of time. Ten years, twenty years, what's the difference. The only true deterrent is FEAR. Even though some bomb can be sneaked here or there, two can play that game. China will someday be as wealthy as Japan, and in some place it already is. If North Korea exports a nuke, China will pay, or should pay. Some terrorist (wink, wink) group will sneak one into China. This is the future, get used to it.
Well, believe it or not, but it is in question whether China really will one day be as wealthy as Japan. Some people think China's economic miracle is phony. But supposing its real, I think our security will become so incredibly good that we won't have to sersiously worry about rogue nukes.
Anonymous24 Wrote:Well, believe it or not, but it is in question whether China really will one day be as wealthy as Japan. Some people think China's economic miracle is phony. But supposing its real, I think our security will become so incredibly good that we won't have to sersiously worry about rogue nukes.

I don't really think that we will ever get all that good. However, if every country that works in the production of nuclear enrichment is a signatory of the IAEA, it must register samples of it's products. And each batch has a seperate signature, just as the screw of each ship's propeller makes a unique sound. If a terrorist ever sets off a fissile yield, the IAEA can go back to the source, not only where the pile was produced, but the exact date of manufacter.

That is a good deterrent. Any nation that sells this to unsavory groups will come under the international gun: if the international community has the 'you know what' to do anything about it.

And another thing. Any country that works on enrichment of nuclear fuel can just as easily refine the U235 from the 3-8% for fuel to the 90% for weapons grade material. The process is the same.
John L Wrote:That is a good deterrent. Any nation that sells this to unsavory groups will come under the international gun: if the international community has the 'you know what' to do anything about it.
It is like registering your weapons. Just as there is unregistered weapons on the street, there will be unregistered nukes, but there will always be the 'most likely suspects'. As I said, a wink wink nuke planted in the belly of a rogue nation would get some attention.

As far as the 'international community', I think we have seen the international community at its best (Afghanistan), and at its worst (Iraq). I would not put my safety in the hands of the 'international community'.
Niagara Wrote:
John L Wrote:That is a good deterrent. Any nation that sells this to unsavory groups will come under the international gun: if the international community has the 'you know what' to do anything about it.
It is like registering your weapons. Just as there is unregistered weapons on the street, there will be unregistered nukes, but there will always be the 'most likely suspects'. As I said, a wink wink nuke planted in the belly of a rogue nation would get some attention.

As far as the 'international community', I think we have seen the international community at its best (Afghanistan), and at its worst (Iraq). I would not put my safety in the hands of the 'international community'.

You're probably right Gary. On top of that, IF they do act, the time lag would be so long that by then it would allow for more mischief to take it's place. Typical beauracrats.
Quote:The preparations include the construction of a reviewing stand that might be used by Pyongyang's leadership to observe a test explosion.

Let's hope they blow up their fool selves.