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Full Version: Russia will become even more paranoid
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Open door to Ukraine, Georgia, say Eastern NATO states, Canada

Perhaps I a bit surprised by Canada's insistence, but not about that of the Eastern European states. The bore the CCCR yoke a long time. What will Russia do?
What will Russia do about what?
Why don't you ask Ukranians first do they want joining NATO, an extra burden for their budget. According to numerous polls they don't want NATO whatever their elite says. Add to that already strained relationship between the South-East and West of Ukraine and try to predict further development of events.
Same goes for Georgia, NATO membership would move anti-Georgian enclaves further away from Georgia.
And one more remark, if you allow me. Have never counted Poland and Lithuania among independant countries. They always do what is told.
"jt", wondering what Russia will do, asks
Quote: What will Russia do?

The answer is quite easy, and you can use this forum as an example. What does Green do? He naturally blames the US for All the ills of the Motherland, ANd the rest of the world.

It's all our fault, didn't you know that? :twisted:
Yea,from what MV posted somewhere incognito,Ukraine is having serious second thoughts about membership. Look,would we rely on people 5000 miles across the sea to protect our independence from a significantly larger belligerent neighbor or would we make a deal,close to what Finland dealt with since 1950?

I'd deal,no way would I take the chance the 5000 miles away protector might flinch at high noon.
John L Wrote:"jt", wondering what Russia will do, asks
Quote: What will Russia do?

The answer is quite easy, and you can use this forum as an example. What does Green do? He naturally blames the US for All the ills of the Motherland, ANd the rest of the world.

It's all our fault, didn't you know that? :twisted:

just reread Green's post twice, he doesn't even mention either the US or his motherland or the rest of the world. Am I missing something?
So:

1) What would be the benefits, the West, of including Ukraine?
2) Why doesn't Ukraine want to join?
jt Wrote:Open door to Ukraine, Georgia, say Eastern NATO states, Canada

Perhaps I a bit surprised by Canada's insistence, but not about that of the Eastern European states. The bore the CCCR yoke a long time. What will Russia do?
Russia can only do what it is capable of doing and that isn't much at the moment. 70% of Russia's natural gas exports to Europe go through Ukraine so I don't think Russia can afford a full blown falling out with Ukraine even if the latter were to joint NATO.
In fact, Green is right in that Ukraine's joining NATO is a far more controversial issue in Ukraine than it is in Russia. Ukraine is very different from Lithuania or Poland, a fact that it would seem few people in the West appreciate. A very large proportion of the population in Ukraine can be said to still have the old soviet mentality, they still subconsciously perceive NATO as an enemy and therefore to them joining it would be an act of betrayal not of Russia but of Ukraine as they've always known it.
Plus they feel cheated by both the West a d their own leaders, because during the orange revolution they were promised EU membership, at least by Yuschenko and co, and today they are instead being offered NATO membership with no real prospect of joining the EU anytime soon. Now what would this really mean to them?
As I said Russia cannot do much, but if Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia's most obvious first move would be to introduce visas for Ukrainians and that would hit the Ukrainian economy really hard; all those multitudes of Ukrainian guest workers who are currently working in Russia and sending money back home would effectively be banned from their jobs in Russia without being given the EU alternative. So it's only natural that the majority of Ukrainians want to joint the EU first and then maybe join NATO later, but alas, Yuschenko, being the stupid puppet that he is, is totally deaf to these concerns and in spite of the cries of protest from his own people he seems intent on doing what is good for his friends in Washington rather than what is best for the Ukrainian people.
jt Wrote:Open door to Ukraine, Georgia, say Eastern NATO states, Canada

Perhaps I a bit surprised by Canada's insistence, but not about that of the Eastern European states. The bore the CCCR yoke a long time. What will Russia do?
Russia can only do what it is capable of doing and that isn't much at the moment. 70% of Russia's natural gas exports to Europe go through Ukraine so I don't think Russia can afford a full blown falling out with Ukraine even if the latter were to joint NATO.
In fact, Green is right in that Ukraine's joining NATO is a far more controversial issue in Ukraine than it is in Russia. Ukraine is very different from Lithuania or Poland, a fact that it would seem few people in the West appreciate. A very large proportion of the population in Ukraine can be said to still have the old soviet mentality, they still subconsciously perceive NATO as an enemy and therefore to them joining it would be an act of betrayal not of Russia but of Ukraine as they've always known it.
Plus they feel cheated by both the West a d their own leaders, because during the orange revolution they were promised EU membership, at least by Yuschenko and co, and today they are instead being offered NATO membership with no real prospect of joining the EU anytime soon. Now what would this really mean to them?
As I said Russia cannot do much, but if Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia's most obvious first move would be to introduce visas for Ukrainians and that would hit the Ukrainian economy really hard; all those multitudes of Ukrainian guest workers who are currently working in Russia and sending money back home would effectively be banned from their jobs in Russia without being given the EU alternative. So it's only natural that the majority of Ukrainians want to joint the EU first and then maybe join NATO later, but alas, Yuschenko, being the stupid puppet that he is, is totally deaf to these concerns and in spite of the cries of protest from his own people he seems intent on doing what is good for his friends in Washington rather than what is best for the Ukrainian people.
As always, we fuck things up through self-interested meddling.
Also, just to throw this out there: I think many of you are ignoring the Ukraine's cultural ties to Russia. Its still a country much more like Russia in outlook than the West.
Palladin Wrote:I'd deal,no way would I take the chance the 5000 miles away protector might flinch at high noon.

Europe isn't 5K miles away Palladin ... and as I recall there are a few larger Western Euro countries on the NATO membership roster that are MUCH closer ... doesn't really address the 'flinching' issue though ... indeed, if anything, it probably exacerbates it. :oops: Shutting a valve to Ukraine appears to do all sorts of nasty things to the plumbing down stream.

Also, there are very few nations on earth that are as skillful at playing both ends against the middle as Finland. They were allies with and subsequently fought off both the Nazis AND the Soviets in four separate wars during what we call WWII. They're pretty plucky for a comparatively small state. And whatever they've 'dealt' with in the last half century, they've come out if it pretty darned well.