AI-Jane Political, And Economic Forums

Full Version: Putin: 4 more years?
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
Stratfor Wrote:Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Oct. 1 that he plans to run for a seat in the Duma in the upcoming December parliamentary elections as the head of United Russia, a party his administration formed to ensure a pliable legislative branch. From there Putin can use his ironclad control of the governing system to ensure his influence via any number of means. He could become prime minister. He could arrange for a loyalist to take the presidency and then resign, which would kick Putin into the big chair. Or he could arrange for constitutional amendments to shift power from the presidency to the premiership.

The specific means Putin uses are irrelevant. The point is that Putin, in running as United Russia's No. 1 candidate, has indicated that far from leaving the government of Russia in May 2008, he has every intention of continuing to lead it.
Yeah, they say pretty much the same thing right here as well. He's not going to give up power, that's for certain.
A very good article, actually better than Stratfor's.

I was wondering a bit why Putin went on an offensive at the very end of his term with the political situation appearing unclear...well, now we know that it was clear to him all along. There still may be some shakeups and power plays during the transition, but we know now that he had both a plan and confidence in it working.

Well, what he is doing is surely legal. With the party system being really undeveloped in Russia, it is also going to work.

[Side comment: notice how the more Western members of the former Warsaw Pact managed to develop systems of parties/opposition from nothing within very short time...and this did not happen in the East. No post-USSR state has them, except for the Baltics.]

I have a bit of doubt that Putin is looking for only four more years....
The interesting wrinkle to this, is that the new president of Russia may suddenly decide to exercise his powers of office and marginalize Putin.

This must surely have occurred to Putin, unless his vanity has produced confidence beyond measure. I wonder what ploys Putin has in place to insure against such an event.
I still don't see any vestige that Putin will be President in 2008.
Quote:He said that, first, United Russia would have to win the Dec. 2 elections and a "decent, competent, modern person" must be elected president.
Putin's words:
Quote:First, United Russia would have to win the State Duma election on December 2, and second, our voters would have to elect a decent, effective and modern-thinking President with whom it would be possible to work together.
(originaly: "в паре")
Quote:[Side comment: notice how the more Western members of the former Warsaw Pact managed to develop systems of parties/opposition from nothing within very short time...and this did not happen in the East. No post-USSR state has them, except for the Baltics.]
How about Ukraine? They have quite developed party system. Five parties has entered the Rada. They are literally in opposition to each other. :lol:
jt Wrote:I wonder what ploys Putin has in place to insure against such an event.

Ploys? Who needs ploys? All he needs to do is to mention that there are empty apartments in the Khodorovsky's current mansion...and smart people know this already.

Quote:How about Ukraine? They have quite developed party system. Five parties has entered the Rada. They are literally in opposition to each other.

It seems that the money invested by the West went into repainting gangs as parties. Currently the parties are a mix of personal loyalty and competing oligarch groups. The system exists only because of the current balance of Russian and Western influences with both outside sponsors messing in.
IMHO, the Western and oligarch messing-in could be easily neutralized if Ukraine had a vast, rich middle-class, which contributes to the GDP most of all.
Same goes for Russia.
mv Wrote:Ploys? Who needs ploys? All he needs to do is to mention that there are empty apartments in the Khodorovsky's current mansion...and smart people know this already.
Of course. Yet there must be iron behind the velvet glove. Thus, arrangements have already been made to empty certain apartments if need be. Given Putin's past, one can be fairly sure that such arrangements will be filled, if need be. Nevertheless, there is always the possibility of a test, of skepticism by new power seekers. We shall see.
There is nothing in the Russian constitution that prohibits Putin standing for the Parliament, taking the post of Prime Minister for 4 years then standing for President again in 2012. There is no limit on the number of times someone serves as President, just that they can not hold the office for more than two terms consecutively. The next President will be a Putin appointee and I very much doubt he'd opt to marginalize PM Putin.

See BBC : "Putin eyes prime minister's job"
There are all sorts of speculative scenarios and Putin--as with a certain yokel from Arkansas--remains a "youngster" in the political cabbage patch. There are all sorts of possible scenarios through which Vladimir the Devious could reassert power, including "constitutional" reform through which to demote the presidency to a ceremonial executive and assert the ministerial powers of the Duma. Running for the Duma also raises the possibility for Putin to assume "party" leadership--sound familiar?--so we had best start identifying just what the composition of his support really is...
RFE-RL, 4 Oct 07: Russia: Putin 'Unifies' A Party System On Life Support
Quote:....Putin's move is likely to pull support from many other parties participating. Although Communist Party and LDPR officials were quick to say that only A Just Russia will suffer, their arguments seem unconvincing. Only the minor liberal parties the Union of Rightist Forces and Yabloko are, in the end, unlikely to see much of their tiny sliver of the vote defect. Pre-bombshell polling put the Communist Party at about 18 percent of the vote, meaning the party still has a clear chance of surmounting the 7 percent hurdle and picking up Duma seats. But the chances for the LDPR and A Just Russia, which were on the edge of the barrier before the announcement, now look very slim indeed.

Under Russian law, at least two parties must be represented in the Duma. Even if no party besides Unified Russia overcomes the 7-percent barrier, some seats will be allotted to the second-place finisher in any event. Russia will not see a result such as emerged in Kazakhstan in August, where the pro-presidential party transformed its domination of the system to complete domination of the legislature as well.

As a result, a sort of "two-party" system will emerge from the December vote in Russia. But it won't be even the docile two-party system envisioned under the Unified Russia-A Just Russia plan. Instead, there will be a huge constitutional majority for Unified Russia and a token representation by the Communist Party. Although the Communist Party is a genuine opposition party (as opposed to A Just Russia's facsimile), its support is fading from election to election and it is a safe bet the Kremlin will not allow the party to use its opposition platform in the Duma to generate real political influence or increase its public support. The Communist Party is, from the Kremlin's point of view, a tolerable opposition both because it can be counted on to support the Kremlin in any issues touching the theme of Russia as a great power and because no other opposition parties are ever going to be willing to form a coalition with it.

By the time of the next election, there is a good chance even the Communists will be so weakened that they will be unable to garner the 7 percent needed to earn seats. If that scenario emerges, the two-party system in Russia will depend on the artificial life support of the law ensuring at least two parties in the legislature. And analysts will need a magnifying glass to tell the difference between Russia and neighbors like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
...and as an FYI for another source on Russia:

RAD, 2 Oct 07: Political Opposition in Russia

The Russian Analytical Digest is a bi-weekly internet publication jointly produced by the Research Centre for East European Studies [Forschungsstelle Osteuropa] at the University of Bremen and the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich). It is supported by the Otto Wolff Foundation and the German Association for East European Studies (DGO). The Digest draws on contributions to the German-language Russlandanalysen, the CSS analytical network on Russia and Eurasia, and the Russian Regional Report . The Russian Analytical Digest covers political, economic, and social developments in Russia and its regions, and looks at Russia’s role in international relations.
Quote:And analysts will need a magnifying glass to tell the difference between Russia and neighbors like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
Curiously, USA has recognized Turkmenistan as Democracy recently.
I wonder if Turkmens would disagree to deliver gas to the West, would they get their portion of American bombs? Wink1
Green Wrote:Curiously, USA has recognized Turkmenistan as Democracy recently.
Although the administration feted Berdymukhammedov during his recent visit, in an overt attempt to make him aware of alternatives to Gazprom, that is very different than "recognizing Turkmenistan as a Democracy". Which it clearly is not.

An official statement put out by DoS just after Berdymukhammedov's visit last month stated that: The Government of Turkmenistan is currently interested in engaging with the United States in several areas, including security and energy issues. In order to secure and maintain this engagement, the government has been willing to take some small steps forward in democratic reform, such as lifting exit visas and allowing the registration of some religious minorities. Its human rights record, however, remains poor. Diplomatic missions from various countries and international organizations have joined together to persuade the Government of Turkmenistan to improve its human rights practices, but their efforts have not yet led to significant improvements overall.

Not exactly "recognition as a Democracy". :roll:
The beginning of your citation:
U.S. criticism of the Government of Turkmenistan's crackdown against perceived sources of political opposition after the November 2002 motorcade attack led to a marked downturn in bilateral relations between the Governments of the United States and Turkmenistan.

Nice. So Americans pay for gas to Gurbanguly and he promises to stop persecuring Christians in his country and free opposition journalists from prison? Wow, he even managed to give a speech in Columbia University.
Ahmadinejad must feel envious. Wink1
drgonzaga Wrote:There are all sorts of speculative scenarios and Putin--as with a certain yokel from Arkansas--remains a "youngster" in the political cabbage patch. There are all sorts of possible scenarios through which Vladimir the Devious could reassert power, including "constitutional" reform through which to demote the presidency to a ceremonial executive and assert the ministerial powers of the Duma. Running for the Duma also raises the possibility for Putin to assume "party" leadership--sound familiar?--so we had best start identifying just what the composition of his support really is...

I think by now we can conclude that the only person behind Putin is Putin.

And yes, there are lots of tools in his disposal to keep power. He does not have to be a president, the position is defined sufficiently vaguely that we may yet find a US-type presidency in Russia replaced by a German-type presidency...without a constitutional change.

Whatever Vlad deems right to do.

As for the political opposition not making it into Duma at all: this is probably too far-fetched. Still, with the approval in 70s, and no popular opposition leader, Putin's new party will have an overwhelming majority.

We shall see.
mv Wrote:
drgonzaga Wrote:There are all sorts of speculative scenarios and Putin--as with a certain yokel from Arkansas--remains a "youngster" in the political cabbage patch. There are all sorts of possible scenarios through which Vladimir the Devious could reassert power, including "constitutional" reform through which to demote the presidency to a ceremonial executive and assert the ministerial powers of the Duma. Running for the Duma also raises the possibility for Putin to assume "party" leadership--sound familiar?--so we had best start identifying just what the composition of his support really is...

I think by now we can conclude that the only person behind Putin is Putin.

And yes, there are lots of tools in his disposal to keep power. He does not have to be a president, the position is defined sufficiently vaguely that we may yet find a US-type presidency in Russia replaced by a German-type presidency...without a constitutional change.

Whatever Vlad deems right to do.

As for the political opposition not making it into Duma at all: this is probably too far-fetched. Still, with the approval in 70s, and no popular opposition leader, Putin's new party will have an overwhelming majority.

We shall see.

Was there ever any doubt?