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To me, this is perhaps the most interesting topic of all- How do you see the world in 25 years, 50 years, 100 years?

Personally, I believe that the planet is undergoing changes which are rapid, multi-dimensional and extremely profound. I am not happy with the analyses I have read on this because I think they are too static and grossly underestimate the synergy of having such profound changes happen so quickly and at so many levels simultaneously.

Just as an example, world-wide, IQ levels have drooped 6 pointds over the last 25 years and are expected to drop an equal amount during the next quarter century. What will this mean and what could happen to precent it? Fo instance, what if women started to opt for genetically engineered babies and we had a sudden plethora of geniuses in some countries and or social classes?
Yankeecat Wrote:To me, this is perhaps the most interesting topic of- How do you see the world in 25 years, 50 years, 100 years?

In 25 years? I expect to see the first effects of the genetic engineering revolution.

In 50 years? I believe that we will have at least one or more space elevators, which will open the rush to outer space and the conquest of the solar system.

In 100 years? We will have gone through the bloodiest century of human history. However, I don't think it will be in the form of World Wars. Rather, it will be many, many local and regional wars, dealing with independence and conflict of political/social ideology.

I believe that number of independent countries will be almost double it's current number. Such large countries, as Indonesia, PRC, Russia, and others will break up into many seperate countries, and it will be very bloody. Canada will most likely become three seperate countries, and there will be pressure on ALL countries to be lean, mean, efficient, and productive, with more power to it's citizens, or it will devolve into several smaller ones.

I suspect the US will be able to fight off this pressure, by devolving power back to the individual states, and away from the Federal government. Do not expect to see the Czecho-Slovakia solution in most other places though. Most will be violent, but real. Look for the death count in the PRC to be in the countless millions of innocent noncombatants.

I foresee the final defeat of Collectivist ideology, which includes socialism AND Fascism, which is the main form of collectivism today.

Yankeecat Wrote:Personally, I believe that the planet is undergoing changes which are rapid, multi-dimensional and extremely profound. I am not happy with the analyses I have read on this because I think they are too static and grossly underestimate the synergy of having such profound changes happen so quickly and at so many levels simultaneously.

Just as an example, world-wide, IQ levels have drooped 6 pointds over the last 25 years and are expected to drop an equal amount during the next quarter century. What will this mean and what could happen to precent it? Fo instance, what if women started to opt for genetically engineered babies and we had a sudden plethora of geniuses in some countries and or social classes?

Fortunately, I do not share your pessimism, with it's end results. I believe that eventually control will devolve to the smallest common functional denominators. The world will be filled with countries too many to number, and personal liberty will be greater at the end of that 100 years, more so than today. But it will be very costly.

As for lowered IQ, I don't know about that. As for females being able to do without males, that is more problematic than you think. Women are not able to do without males, just as males are not able to do without them: genetic engineering aside. If you look at the number of older women today, looking for a male companion, it tells you that our yearning for the opposite sex is a built in genetic trait that will most likely not be discovered within the next 100 years. The need for a mate and companion of the opposite sex is litterly built into our genes.

What I am saying Yank, is this: don't be so negative and pessimistic. If you look at life this way, you will not be able to see the silver lining under all that blood. Wink1
Actually, I agree with many of your observations and am not negative at all, although I may have given that impression. What I meant about the genetic engineering is that it may be an antidote to the IQ problem but that it may raise other questions in and of itself.

Your post is excellent, let's see what others think.
Yankeecat Wrote:Actually, I agree with many of your observations and am not negative at all, although I may have given that impression. What I meant about the genetic engineering is that it may be an antidote to the IQ problem but that it may raise other questions in and of itself.

Your post is excellent, let's see what others think.

Allow me to conclude on the 'genetic engineering' subject. I am talking about our future off this earth. I have done more than a great deal of thinking about this, and actually lie awake at night thinking of the way we are finally going to get into space. I'm still attempting to tie up the loose ends, but they never give out.

Naturally, the first innovation is going to be the Space Elevator, as mass production of carbon nanotubes(buckey tubes) becomes a reality. Not only will it revolutionize how structures are made, automobiles are built, etc, etc, but it will mean that a series of long strands will reach from the earth into space, where people and materials will move up and down the ribbons, via elevators.

Secondly, look for a revolution in space wear, where the very material will breathe or seal up, on the call of an electrical response. This means that a light weight and practical space suit will be entirely possible, AND also be made as a fashion statement.

But Thirdly, and most importantly, genetic engineering will be able to ensure that the human body does not deteriorate under micro-gravity, as we currently do. Once we are able to genetically engineer the human body to maintain it's mass in micro-gravity, the gate is open to the space fronteer. And That is the REAL future of this species.
Incidentially, the Science Channel is showing multiple shows, on the series 2057, which is projecting 50 years in the future. Give it a look-see. Wink1
Quote: I believe that number of independent countries will be almost double it's current number. Such large countries, as Indonesia, PRC, Russia, and others will break up into many seperate countries,

Hey! Why nobody prevents rebuilding of Russian Empire?


I think something will happen not in 25 years but in 10 years.
But, Russian Empire does already exist and it will be rebuilding itself during the following 10 years. Wink1
I see nuclear fallout in the somewhat near future
Sheriff Wrote:
Quote: I believe that number of independent countries will be almost double it's current number. Such large countries, as Indonesia, PRC, Russia, and others will break up into many seperate countries,

Hey! Why nobody prevents rebuilding of Russian Empire?


I think something will happen not in 25 years but in 10 years.

Empires are, in and of themselves, neither natural, nor sustainable. Forget this grandious idea of a Russian Empire. Russia is going to have more than it's share of problems just keeping it's own country in one piece.

As I have stated, the world is in the forefront of downsizing, not consolidating. Russia is near the top of the list of countries, that have so much size, inefficiency, and ethinic division, that it cannot sustain itself as it stands.

You guys are just living a dream, if you think an empire is going to happen, OR would be good for that matter.
John L Wrote:The need for a mate and companion of the opposite sex is litterly built into our genes.

It's not built into mine.
Lisa Wrote:
John L Wrote:The need for a mate and companion of the opposite sex is litterly built into our genes.

It's not built into mine.


Hey, that's fine. Incidentially, I was talking about group, not individual, here. If you don't wish to pass your genes on, don't let me stop you.
There is going to be an attempt by the current "elites" to have "one world government". As John L suggests, this will eventually fail due to the centrifugal force insuring fragmentation rather than agglomeration to empire. It will founder as well on the nascent dictatorships that are currently forming, and which which wish to extend their influence.

Genetic engineering will founder on moral issues, just as genetically modified crops has in Europe, and stem cell research (government funded) has in the US. This will be temporary, but intense moral (emotional) arguments will force researches to go underground temporarily.

Science will continue its inexorable progress in the US, giving products and ideas that will keep everyone on their toes. Especially in biology and nanostructures.

There will be an energy crisis. Governments are not planning for the future, and often are retarding development of energy resources. Some kind of political epiphany must occur. Even if such an epiphany occurs, the problem is serious, if society is to keep technologically and economically progressing. All this is progress predicated on cheap energy, and international politics seems to play a very complicating role.

There will also be other resource crises. Coal, aluminum and iron not for a couple of centuries, but other metals may turn out to be damnably hard to get in sufficient quantities. New techniques for extraction or conservation will need to be developed.

There could be demographic crises. Europe, Russia and Japan are not replacing their populations. Usually in history, collapse of great local or global powers leads to mass migrations (or conquests, rather unlikely now). These migrations can change the face of history rather substantially. Dark ages followed the fall of Rome, for example. The spread of Islam followed the exhaustion of the west and Persia through excessive warfare. Both of these had profound effects on the next several centuries of human social development. It is hard for us to imagine this happening now, but I suggest that one should be wary of "reversion to the mean" in human history.

Enough for now.
Most "so called" crises are really opportunities to make better changes, and the market forces are best able to do this, over the State. Let me take exception with just one of your points here. And note that I am a Julian Simon optimist here.

jt Wrote:There will also be other resource crises. Coal, aluminum and iron not for a couple of centuries, but other metals may turn out to be damnably hard to get in sufficient quantities. New techniques for extraction or conservation will need to be developed.

The truth is that resourses are really getting cheaper, in spite of their demand. Julian Simon forcast this very thing. And since petroleum is not a 'fossil' fuel, it is anaerobic, and the source comes up from within the earth. I suspect that we will have changed fuel sources well before it reaches it decline in availablity.

Further, in the next couple of centuries, we will be mining the asteroids And the Kieper Belt, amongst other places. We will actually have a glut of resourses, to the point that ALL mineral resourses are rock bottom cheap. Also, by then such things that we use today will be replaced by other commodities. For instance, Steel will be substituted with carbon. Superconductors will replace copper wiring, and the list goes on and on.

the biggest shortage in the future will not be the availability of natural resources,...............with the exception of one: human resources. We had better get ready to reproduce like rabbits, once we have a cheap means to get into space.
Quote:the biggest shortage in the future will not be the availability of natural resources,...............with the exception of one: human resources. We had better get ready to reproduce like rabbits, once we have a cheap means to get into space.

Agreed John. The micro states you refer to, do you think they will have the resources and foresight to band together for projects like the Space Elevator and meteor mining? I do not think so. But I believe corporations that exist will be larger than most of these states. And the people who make up these corporations in their own self interest can accomplish these massive tasks. The State, as we know it today, will be thrown down just as the doors to our solar system are being thrown open.

Quote:Science will continue its inexorable progress in the US, giving products and ideas that will keep everyone on their toes. Especially in biology and nanostructures.

Transportation as well. Around the world travel will be possible in only a few hours via re-usable rockets like the scramjet/ramjet. This would, I imagine, create a huge effect on nationalism. With such easy travel and easy flow of information the lines dividing nations will become even more skewed. Other means will divide us, not only the place you were born in.

Quote:Fo instance, what if women started to opt for genetically engineered babies and we had a sudden plethora of geniuses in some countries and or social classes?

The movie Gattaca deals with this problem. There is something else to Man than just his intelligence quotient. Because they are a genius does not mean they are not lazy. I think the real effect will be in the treatment of genetic disorders before the baby is born. So long Down Syndrome, so long Cystic Fibrosis, so long Autism, Cancer, Diabetes, Obesity. Essentially, you'll have hundreds of millions that were before a drain on society or just died now being given the chance to be productive individuals.
The Cheshire Cat Wrote:
Quote:the biggest shortage in the future will not be the availability of natural resources,...............with the exception of one: human resources. We had better get ready to reproduce like rabbits, once we have a cheap means to get into space.

Agreed John. The micro states you refer to, do you think they will have the resources and foresight to band together for projects like the Space Elevator and meteor mining? I do not think so. But I believe corporations that exist will be larger than most of these states. And the people who make up these corporations in their own self interest can accomplish these massive tasks. The State, as we know it today, will be thrown down just as the doors to our solar system are being thrown open.

I'm not all that sure what will eventually shake out. But since larger States will not be as efficient or responsive to it's citizens like smaller, more leaner units can, things can be done quicker. Perhaps smaller units will be able to combine skills, like that of the European Space Agency, and get larger projects done.

I have my ideas about space elevators, and how the frontier of space will be settled, but it would be too long to write about here. Let's just say that if man is first able to get into space cheaply, second have a means of sophisticated clothing, that could function as clothing AND space suit, and third if the genetics would ensure that the body would not deteriate in micro-gravity, everything else is solvable.

Also, since moving large objects will not be permitted within the immediate vicinity of Earty, they will be moved to the two earth trojan points and processed before the raw materials are moved to the moon's two trojan points for final processing. By the time the earth has become filth rich, so will the other colonies in the solar system. But that is all another story. Wink1
Anyone remember what happened to humanity the first time it tried reaching the heavens? It's not going to happen. We might reach the moon and other planets but we won't go further than that. The world will end before that. It's unfortunate because I'd like to own a house on mars.
Independents4Bush Wrote:Anyone remember what happened to humanity the first time it tried reaching the heavens? It's not going to happen. We might reach the moon and other planets but we won't go further than that. The world will end before that. It's unfortunate because I'd like to own a house on mars.

Michael, the tower of Babbal was an allegory, that attempted to tell a moral story, about hubris and vanity. It was not a REAL event.

As for the world ending real soon, I'll go under the optimistic assumption that we definately will. Sorry to be disagreeeabe here. However, I'm not a literalist about the bible either.
I'm not offended because you disagree. Taking the bible literally is difficult because of the current realities of the world and the established limited vision humans have. You need to have the vision very few have, not an idea but a ability to see that which the mere human eye does not pick up.

Why couldn't it have happened? You don't lack imagination in the scientific realm. Expand that imagination to other realms. All things are possible. Wink1
Lisa Wrote:
John L Wrote:The need for a mate and companion of the opposite sex is literally built into our genes.

It's not built into mine.
Nor in mine. :lol:
Its extremely difficult to predict the future because its so unknown and uncertain. [Im not using apostrophes in this post because certain posters have used them all up, writing it's when they should write its].

John thinks its nanotubes that will change the world; I think its shannnadaggga, but its bound to be the very next thing, along with electrical banana.

Large countries are simply ungovernable. Unless it becomes a federation again, the USA will lose its competitive edge. Five million people is a handy number for a nation.

The world will change far more rapidly than its changed in the past, too fast to even use an apostrophe. A person who lives from 1990 to 2115 will see hundreds of significant changes to technology, culture, language, and economics.
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