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Tehran Takes Gloomy View of the Lebanon War and Truce

Debka Wrote:As seen from Tehran, Israel looked as though it was carrying out a warming-up exercise in preparation for its main action against Iran's nuclear program. The Israeli army was able to explore, discover and correct its weak points, understand what was lacking and apply the necessary remedial measures. They therefore expect the IDF to emerge from the war having produced novel methods of warfare.

They also have no doubt that the United States will replenish Israel's war chest with a substantial aid program of new and improved weaponry.

From the Iranian viewpoint, Israel succeeded in seriously degrading Hizballah's capabilities. It was also able to throw the Lebanese Shiite militia to the wolves; the West is now in a position to force Nasrallah and his men to quit southern Lebanon and disarm. The West shut its eyes when he flouted the Resolution 1559 order for the disarmament of all Lebanese militias. But that game is over. The Americans will use Resolution 1701 as an effect weapon to squeeze Iran, denied of its second-front deterrence, on its nuclear program.

Tehran hopes to pre-empt the American move by torpedoing the Lebanon ceasefire and preventing the termination of hostilities at all costs.

According to common knowledge, Iran had 13,000 missiles stockpiled in Southern Lebanon to use when needed. Now Iran's proposed second front is gone, with Israel willing and prepped to take out their Nuclear capability. Funny how the cease-fire starts up just as Iran puts clamps on the further use of Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2 rockets. Too bad Israel already wiped out the Zelzal launchers.

This corresponds to Spengler's rant about the potential arising out of the volatile situation that the U.S. may not have the stomach to take full advantage of. Perhaps Spengler missed the plot within the plot?
I still cannot help but look at the latest hostilities as being at least a huge political victory for Hezbollah. If Iran views this differently, fine. And they may be correct, especially if Bebe gains control of things. I can guarantee all that he will not be afraid to take the necessary action to trim Tehran's sails: no matter the cost.
That shows how ignorant Debka's owner is. Hezzbollah for the first time has shown the Arabs how to attack Israel and survive without running like girls and Debka thinks Iran "lost" that phase?

They succeeded in changing the paradigm in the region from one where Egypt and Jordan accepted the Arabs were without the ability to whip the IDF to the opposite conclusion. That is a deadly reality many Jews will die
trying to change.

Debka is so ignorant they ought to be ashamed of themselves. How many dead Jews must now die to disabuse these delusional hyenas that they cannot run the Jews into the sea? Compared to 8 weeks ago?

Other than an Army of Muslims literally over running Israel and massacring the Jews,there is no worse outcome humanly possible than what Israel got and Hezz achieved. Some big defeat for Iran,Israel was confused and America is weak.
Palladin Wrote:Hezbollah for the first time has shown the Arabs how to attack Israel and survive without running like girls and Debka thinks Iran "lost" that phase?

No you missed the point. It is supposedly Tehran's thinking that is being dissected here. The thinking from Tehran, which seems very plausible, is that Israel pulled a fast one and did something under the cloak of a defensive action that they wanted to do for some time. Some even think the strategy was so good for Israel that the entire confrontation was staged. I don't think so - but there is a very good chance the situation was just what the Israeli's wanted.

The Mossad has been deeply entrenched through the terrorists networks better than any intelligence agency ever has been. They are famous for how good they are... yet the world press assumes they somehow missed the buildup of Hezbollah on their border? This illogic always bothered me. Now Tehran has supplied the answers.

According to their highest planners, The 13,000 rockets stockpiled in Lebanon had a specific deterrent value which is now lost. If there are many left, it is just a handful, and the really big missiles were taken out by the Israelis. The Hezbollah strongholds and personnel are also depleted. Al Jazeera can spin the situation into a moral victory for Iran - but the Nuke situation which is much more important than the kidnapped soldiers is now wide open for an Israeli operation.

Up until a month ago, Iran was sitting pretty in an isolated position with divisions of well-armed soldiers and anti-aircraft crews surrounding them. The fear of an Israeli sneak air attack was negligible. Iran had doubts that Israel would be able to damage the hardened nuclear facilities. Now Israel has tested their different weapons for deep penetration and has accepted advice on using U.S. bunker-busting bombs.

As a laboratory experiment designed to prestage a direct attack on Iran, nothing could have been better.

What is even worse for Iran is the knowledge that Israel is only forbidden "offensive" military action by 1501, and a simple set-up of Iran-produced Zelzal missiles or other hardware with Iran's fingerprints may legitimize a "defensive" foray into Iran to take out their nukes.

Yes, Al Jazeera can spin the cease-fire as a Hezbollah victory, but let's see if Iran will actively work to get the cease-fire lifted, and the UN "robust" force withdrawn so they can resupply the Lebanese buffer. If they are happy with the cease-fire then they will support it.

It seems to me, the Debka reporting is confirmed if Iran agitates to break 1501, and refuted by their acceptance of it.
Wm Wrote:It seems to me, the Debka reporting is confirmed if Iran agitates to break 1501, and refuted by their acceptance of it.
Exactly.

Interesting point of view. The only problem with it that I see is that the current cease fire was accepted by Hezbollah. The most likely reason is that they know they'll be able to do what they want. Who will stop them, the French? :lol:

Having the French enforce an arms embargo is having the fox guard the hen house.
Not Hezbollah... Iran. The in Lebanese Hezbollah ran beyond Iran's control and is in the process of being reined-in. Let's see what happens.
Palladin Wrote:That shows how ignorant Debka's owner is.

Heh-heh.

Debka played this one both ways, they also had articles stating Hizbollan/Tehran enjoying their victory...which they should, they come out of this much stronger.
I totally agree mv and concur with your observation. What interests me the most is the logical solution this gives to the media onslaught of Mossad ineptness - something no one in the intelligence community believes. I do think the Wahhabists will rush to make the most of anything and today's actions will be ballyhooed, whether they won or lost, as a victory. There never was an opportunity for Israel to win a publicity campaign during this action. Even if they killed all the Hezbollah fighters, al Jazeera would have claimed they were slaughtering civilians and not soldiers. It seems the IDF reached some military goals that Tehran is not happy with, in spite of the headlines in al Jazeera or the New York Times.
Let me get something clear to everyone. These "kill ratios" are meaningless. I hear guys at work,"The Israelis whacked them 4-1,they WON"!

WRONG. The Muslims will tolerate losses so far beyond that and they have let's see,about 1/2 BILLION humans within 200 miles of Jerusalem and Israel has 6 million,1.5 not reliably loyal,they are MUSLIMS.

Forget that nonsense. Hezzbollah succeeded in showing Muslims the Jews are NOT all THAT. That means all Muslims within reasonable reach of Jerusalem are already planning HOW to destroy Israel. That was not true just 8 weeks ago.

It won't be a long time and Egypt & Jordan will openly break with the Carter years "peace",watch and see and Egypt alone is over 70 million. Anyone who honestly thinks Israel did well here is bereft of the experience of studying WHAT animates Muslims.

It would have been far superior an ending had the Jews lost 10,000 soldiers today,but knocked the snot out of the Muslims because it will now cost more than that later and it may become untenable now for Jews to live there.
Stratfor is often full of feces,but Friedman hit the nail on the head,there is NO logical reason on earth why an Arab Army cannot whip a Jewish Army.
Taking away the mental inferiority of the Arabs which Hezzbollah just handed them,WATCH OUT JEWS.

Under no reasonable conditions did Iran take a setback here,they just accepted the mantle of Mohammad from all Sunnis and Arabs,the Iranians will lead the fight to destroy the "filthy Jewish infidels" from ruling Muslim lands. Sunnis are already naming their kids Nasrallah.

Olmert has more Jewish blood on his hands than Hitler ended up with almost. What a mindless loser. Outright cowardice would have been much better. That way,the Arab still thinks he's inferior to the Jew,but the Jew has a wimpy leader that will be kicked out.
Palladin Wrote:Olmert has more Jewish blood on his hands than Hitler

Hmmm, with all my dislike of Olmert, I would not go quite this far.


Quote: Under no reasonable conditions did Iran take a setback here

Interestingly enough, maybe they did, after all.

It is emerging now that the Frogs --- remember, the ones that wanted and were going to run the multinational force? --- may limit their contribution to 200 men. If the multinational force comes into existance, it probably will be Turkish...perhaps, we wil then be heading toward non-Arab competition over the Arab world? (Turkey vs Iran). And a Turkish deployment in this scenario is a setback for Iran/Shia.
MV,

Yea,Olmert won't have as much Jewish blood on his hands as Hitler,but he shouldn't have any since he's the PM of Israel.

Forget Turkey and all that nonsense,they're Muslims. The normal thinking you're doing is out the door. We're in an ascendant "religious" cycle,Turks and Persians dislike Christians and Jews more than each other.

Muslims no longer think the Jews are invincible,period. Nothing else makes a da.mn. You have 1/2 billion Muslims within a few hundred miles of Jerusalem,guarded by 4.5 million Jews.

Anyone who thinks that's a winning proposition is simply not thinking.
Hmmm... you mean like in 1967? And every other time the massed military might of the Muslim world was totally crushed by itty-bitty Israel?
Quote:Forget Turkey and all that nonsense,they're Muslims. The normal thinking you're doing is out the door. We're in an ascendant "religious" cycle,Turks and Persians dislike Christians and Jews more than each other.

Yeah, I wouldn't count on turning the different Muslim ethnicities against each other. In the end they're brown, and we're white, and, unfortunately, that makes all the difference in our supposedly enlightened world.
Palladin Wrote:MV,

Yea,Olmert won't have as much Jewish blood on his hands as Hitler,but he shouldn't have any since he's the PM of Israel.

While agreeing with much of what you say, I still have to object to the comparison. It is offensive!

Hitler was a rare genius, while Olmert is just a low-grade politician who miserably failed at the first sign of difficulties. Lets not put them together.

The only reason Olmert may end up being remembered is by unleashing a sequence of events that will lead to elimination of Israel -- if this is what he indeed did. But even then, it would not due to his genius but rather due to his inaptitude, fully shared unfortunately by his collegues (Peretz, Halutz et al) and allies (Bush, Chirac, Rice et al).

Comparisons with Hitler are generally improper since they tend to equate footnote figures with a star. Thus, lets not go into Saddam==Hitler, or Bush==Hitler, or -- as you do now -- Olmert==Hitler.

However, I'll make no objections if you decide to compare Hitler with the Iranian leader. This guy does seem to have a talent...and luck. The way he pushes around Euros, Bushes, and now Olmert has an eerie resemblence to pre-WWII German successes.

Perhaps, to clinch the analogy, we need a conference now...in Munich. Olmert can play Benes, Bush can do Chamberlain, Chirac is Daladier...

....

There is an exit or two for Olmert still...he can be exchanged for the kidnapped soldiers, I think Hizb will take him. Oh, he can go out the Japanese way, with honor. Or copy Hitler this one time, but I don't think he got the balls.... And, if everything fails, there is perhaps a
firing squad.
MV,

Olmert,he ought to just resign and fade out of public life. Israel won't be able to stand many more of his victories.

Anon,

We're white are we? Think that's what animates them or us? If we were Muslims,we'd be their friends. Period. Europeans are white and lots of Europeans are prepared to become dhimiis within certain parameters and the Muslim Arabs will be pleased to rule them.