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Nice guys, those ChiComs. I suppose they fail to realize that they are no longer operating in secret. The more they act to repress, the harder for them it is going to be come the Revolution.

Quote:BEIJING (Reuters) - A Chinese Internet writer was jailed for 12 years on Tuesday for "subversion of state power" after backing a movement by exiled dissidents to hold free elections, his lawyer said.

Yang Tianshui, 45, who has been in custody since last December, did not plan to appeal, a protest against a trial he felt was illegal, his lawyer, Li Jianqiang, said.

"We expected the result, but we are still dissatisfied because he is innocent," Li told Reuters.

It was one of the heaviest prison terms meted out in recent years to an Internet writer. Writer Shi Tao was sentenced last April to 10 years in prison for leaking state secrets abroad.


Yang is one of several Internet writers and journalists being tried this month, amid what analysts say is a tightening of controls on media and freedom of expression.

Yang was charged after posting essays on the Internet in support of the "Velvet Action of China", a movement named for the "Velvet Revolution" that peacefully overthrew communist rule in the former Czechoslovakia.

He was also accused of illegally receiving overseas financial assistance and plotting to form provincial chapters of the outlawed China Democracy Party.

Yang, who was tried in the coastal province of Jiangsu, refused to answer questions from the prosecutor or judge, his lawyer said.

A member of the China chapter of International PEN, the movement founded to defend freedom of expression, Yang has a history of coming up against China's communist rulers.
In my opinion, the PRC is trying to buy time. It is a race to straighten out it's economic dead weight, and at the same time keep the interland from catching fire with universal discontent. It is a true balancing act.

And I think that it will pay a price for this, in the form of eventual rebellion. Whether or not the PRC can weather the storm in one piece is debatable. Perhaps a contrived outside threat will do the trick. I wonder if that will take the form of the US, Taiwan, or a possible resurgent Japan?

I still think that China Must eventually break up into smaller pieces, unless they are able to allow enough liberalization, and fast enough.

It will be interesting to see how they fare, while at the same time keeping the lid down on the human rights pressure cooker that this article exemplifies.
Any idears on when the next Tienamen will happen? I have been hearing for a year now that small riots are breaking out all over China, and the Party is pretty much incapable of supressing the news. Eventually it will consume the entire country.

Are there any contingency plans for a post-Communist china?
ghoullio Wrote:Any idears on when the next Tienamen will happen? I have been hearing for a year now that small riots are breaking out all over China, and the Party is pretty much incapable of supressing the news. Eventually it will consume the entire country.

Are there any contingency plans for a post-Communist china?

I wouldn't expect another tiananmen situation again. That would necessitate a situation, where Chinese would think that they can actually demonstrate peacefully over time, and they will not be harmed.

I suspect the Chinese will resort to riots, demonstrations, and other forms of rebellion. Peacefully gathering together can be hazardous to one's health in the PRC.

As for cntingency plans, I don't understand with whom you are referring.
OUR contingency plans. There are nuclear weapons and a whole boatload of US technology sitting in bunkers in China that I would not like to see in the hands of a new Government, especially one that was even less friendly towards the US. Do you think we have any plans to either help stabalize a new provisional Govt or would we just prop up the ailing Commies lest anyone worse take the reins? Have we learned anything from the fall of the Soviet Union?
Gosh, I can't answer this one. Perhaps others can give you what you wish.
Quote:I have been hearing for a year now that small riots are breaking out all over China, and the Party is pretty much incapable of supressing the news. Eventually it will consume the entire country.
They are actually VERY large riots, and there are a lot of them. There are sections of the countryside paralysed by the riots of the peasantry. The problem is that these are peasants, not intellectuals, they are not fighting for democracy or something. They riot to get rid of corrupt officials and are either suppressed or victorious, but they have no objective above that. Still, if there is a large revolutionof some sort, they would get behind it.

Quote:I still think that China Must eventually break up into smaller pieces, unless they are able to allow enough liberalization, and fast enough.
Such a thing would probably be good, but the (mainland) Chinese think of themselves as one people, they have been one people for 2500 years, and while they may split into smaller administration units seperate nations would be inconceivable.
Muneris Wrote:Such a thing would probably be good, but the (mainland) Chinese think of themselves as one people, they have been one people for 2500 years, and while they may split into smaller administration units seperate nations would be inconceivable.

Actually, this is not accurate, as there are several dialects and different cultures that make up the PRC. While there is a high sense of Chinese partiotism, this is not as solid as one would believe.

I would not be surprised if the provincial lords, who are gathering more power BTY, would be averse to consolidating their powers, by declaring autonomy or independence, were the conditions right.
I don't think it's too much more likely that mainland China would break up than the US. The Chinese government has adapted itself well to deal with many regional issues (i.e. the "one China, two systems" policy), and it has actually taken on many regional conflicts itself, so that people mistakenly think that their beef is with the national government rather than with the other regions. There may be lots of motive for a revolution, but the government has made it very unlikely that the different regions will get together. Like Muneris mentioned, despite the liberalization of the internet, things are unlikely to coalesce into a national movement. (And also, given that the country has grown since 1989, there may even be less motivation now than there was then.)

On our side, I think we should actually be encouraging these peasant revolts, mostly by teaching people political philosophy, their most pressing deficiency. If they ever get unified enough that the government fears for its existence, they will create a democracy before they're overthrown, in order to burn any remaining bridges behind them. We need to bring the country just to that point.
b5d Wrote:I don't think it's too much more likely that mainland China would break up than the US.

Please explain? And why would you think the US equally liable to become many little individual seperate nations?

This Could be good, if you put your mind to it. Wink1
Well, they are a lot poorer than the US, which I guess makes somewhat of a difference. But they don't really have any other risk factors. They have a really long history, so at least if they did they would have to eventually reunite. At least right now, there isn't any other competing ideology that would take the place of the central Chinese one.

I could maybe see Taiwan breaking off, if that counts. But then also, as you suggest, there are those who say the US should break apart.