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Full Version: Stratfor Sees German Emergence in Europe
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Interesting. We Yanks see France as terrible, worst of Europe. I think 25 years from now we'll have seen Germany as our father's did,but since the USA is determined to lead the "western empire",we'll seek to assist Germany for now because she is licking our tails under Merkel. Kind of makes me ill,Germany is nothing but bad news when Germans feel confident,history is enough to convince me.




Geopolitical Diary In Europe, a Budding Alliance

Polish President Lech Kaczynski will meet with French President Jacques Chirac in Paris on Feb. 24, setting the stage for a new relationship to be formed within the European Union. A range of topics is on the agenda investment, trans-Atlantic relations, regional issues, military matters and bilateral cooperation.



The meeting comes at an unusual moment for Chirac. Historically, France has discussed these types of core issues with its partner Germany -- but that was when Paris, not Berlin, was the driving force on the Continent. In recent months, that relationship has gone through changes brought on by elections and internal party politics. Now, France is adjusting to a geopolitical dynamic not seen since World War II ***Germany is back in the driver's seat, and Chancellor Angela Merkel now has the wheel***.

France, lacking the clout it once had, is now maneuvering to counter Germany's power. And Poland, the largest eastern European member of the Union, is a natural partner in this effort Memories of German invasion leave Warsaw inclined to be concerned about Berlin's degree of power in the region -- and under any circumstances, Poland would be strengthened by adding to its base of allies within the European Union.
A unified Germany is by definition the strongest power on the continent. A French-Polish alliance is the traditional way of containing it.

What is new here is this:

1. There is a european framework (EU) which did not manage to create a superstate or strong alliance but still pulls the members together.

2. There is a new threat (Islam) equally dangerous to all the EU countries.

Are 1. and 2. strong enough to prevent the reemergence of the traditional pattern: Germany against both East and West?

I think no one knows the answer, but this is what defines the next stage of the european history.