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I note he uses some of the Marxist view of the globe in his rationale

http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4628932.stm
If I were he I would want a truce also. Living in a hole in the ground must be boring to a once comfortable guy.
Bean
Goes to show. When you're losing, you're losing. So offer a truce.
There is some doubt on that tape that it is one continuous tape. There is reason to believe it is spliced.
eaglestrikes Wrote:Goes to show. When you're losing, you're losing. So offer a truce.
There is some doubt on that tape that it is one continuous tape. There is reason to believe it is spliced.
Interesting. Maybe he really is dead? Tell more.
The best intel I've heard about bin Laden is that he is a very sick man, physically damaged by a shoulder wound and advanced organ failure which means he must be in a modernized medical area, probably Indonesia, where his personal wealth of $120 million can buy him needed treatment. He also seems to be in competition with Aymen al Zawahiri over who is really in charge. My understanding of his latest video released by al Jazeera (their timetable-not his, they may have been holding it for any length of time) is that he underscored the refusal earlier by Europe to accept a truce, and now has mirrored that to the U.S., hoping to foment dissent between Europe and the U.S.

In his video, his terms result in him being named as the long-sought Caliph, to be the single negotiating official for all of the Muslim world. The man is clearly delusional, but I wonder what the rest of the Muslim world would think if we took him up on his offer and recognized him as leader and ruler over all of them?
http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=10544
Note who it is that's doing the questioning.
However they are not the only ones.
Also note that left wing slant is there.
The CIA says it is his voice. They make no observation as to when the voice got there, or how old it may be.
Quote:There is no reason whatsoever to believe that these audiotapes are authentic. While they are always followed by reports of scientific voice analyses, these studies have been invariably done by CIA experts. In fact, only one occasion was an independent analysis done. And while American officials were certain of the tape’s authenticity, Swedish scientists were convinced that it was fake.
He desires to be seen as a worthy interlocutor,I think it wise if Bush always just ignored the tapes entirely.
Palladin Wrote:He desires to be seen as a worthy interlocutor,I think it wise if Bush always just ignored the tapes entirely.
Can't do that. It is well known these tapes are codes for actions.
For similar actions see WW II and the announcements for D-Day.
Probably,but it seems our POTUS shouldn't give him a public answer,he's just another thug.
Palladin Wrote:Probably,but it seems our POTUS shouldn't give him a public answer,he's just another thug.
Agreed. Enter stage right. Politics. Had he not said something in response you would have heard the Dem's howling about how he ignores possible threats.
Incorrect. This tape is most definitely NOT a call to action. In these days, bin Laden is not tied into the operations channels of the terrorists. It is Aymen al Zawahiri's role to cue operations, and "Field Generals" like Zarkawi to carry them out. The main reason these tapes are not designed to start or to coordinate terror campaigns is because they are given to al Jazeera, sometimes months in advance, and al Jazeera decides a timely moment to trot them out for maximum effect. There is a total disconnect on confirming when these tapes are made. At best, they are copies of copies - although many bin Laden tapes exhibit advanced technology that helps to confirm he is in a modern high-tech area, even if it was not a 100% requirement for his medical treatments.

It is unlikely to imagine him cowering in a spider-hole á la Saddam. Since he can only function in a medically modern and technological area, and his tapes often show that base, he is thought by some intel analysts to be in Indochina.
WmLambert Wrote:Incorrect. This tape is most definitely NOT a call to action. In these days, bin Laden is not tied into the operations channels of the terrorists. It is Aymen al Zawahiri's role to cue operations, and "Field Generals" like Zarkawi to carry them out. The main reason these tapes are not designed to start or to coordinate terror campaigns is because they are given to al Jazeera, sometimes months in advance, and al Jazeera decides a timely moment to trot them out for maximum effect. There is a total disconnect on confirming when these tapes are made. At best, they are copies of copies - although many bin Laden tapes exhibit advanced technology that helps to confirm he is in a modern high-tech area, even if it was not a 100% requirement for his medical treatments.

It is unlikely to imagine him cowering in a spider-hole á la Saddam. Since he can only function in a medically modern and technological area, and his tapes often show that base, he is thought by some intel analysts to be in Indochina.
Exactly what is incorrect? I made no statement of fact.
I stand in awe that you have this personal pipeline in to Bin Laden that allows you to know for a fact what he is doing, and what he can not do.
Have you provided this intelligence to the CIA?
You seem to have a marvelous grasp of the actors, their roles, and operational assignments. The CIA would love to know what you know and also how you know it. Do you talk to the Al Jazeera edtors or to the CEO of the company?
Not only do you have tentacles in the Al Queada but also in to Al Jazeera. Great. You could be benenficial to the U.S.
You do know that the rumours of dialysis were just that, rumours? So exactly how do you know he needs this Medical attention. Have you spoken with his Doctor?
IndoChina? Archaic. Well there you go. Where exactly is he in Indo Chine?
So any way. Since I never made a statement that it was code, merely alluded to the fact it could be, again, exactly what is incorrect? The allusion? How so? History tells us that this has happened before with him so how can that possibiity be incorrect?
Do you work for the Company? Perhaps we have met. Mid East analysis section? Don't answer I don''t want to be accused of outing you.
Eaglestrikes, I just wanted to correct your statement "It is well known these tapes are codes for actions. For similar actions see WW II and the announcements for D-Day."

This tape and most bin Laden tapes are not designed to trigger actions. They are primarily propaganda to influence popular opinion. Bin Laden, more than many terrorist leaders, tailors his communications for consumption in the West. His talks often call attention to statements made by Democrats in Washington who say thing in hopes of damaging Bush. He takes their statements and reframes them as support for his agenda. Al Jazeera has made no secret that they hold tapes for a length of time, and release them according to their own schedule. They seldom give complete details of how or when they acquired them, and probably see noncooperation with anti-terrorist investigators as virtuous. If al Zawahiri or others planned actions on when al Jazeera released info, then nothing would follow any coordinated time schedule.
Also, bin Laden may be in Indonesia, or other nearby nation-states. Indonesia has done a good job in cleaning out Terrorist bases and made it hard for him to be visable there. However, in these semi-advanced places, money talks, and he has enough to secure a fragile safe-house.
Also, some Intel analysts appearing on radio and television have indicated they believe his medical condition to be factual. One directed attention to the last viseo released and noted the measureable slouch of his shoulder confirming shoulder wounds he took when fleeing Tora-Bora. Do not accept any "official" leak attributed to the CIA. There are internecine cabals there with their own agendas.
WmLambert Wrote:The best intel I've heard about bin Laden is that he is a very sick man, physically damaged by a shoulder wound and advanced organ failure which means he must be in a modernized medical area, probably Indonesia, where his personal wealth of $120 million can buy him needed treatment. He also seems to be in competition with Aymen al Zawahiri over who is really in charge. My understanding of his latest video released by al Jazeera (their timetable-not his, they may have been holding it for any length of time) is that he underscored the refusal earlier by Europe to accept a truce, and now has mirrored that to the U.S., hoping to foment dissent between Europe and the U.S.

In his video, his terms result in him being named as the long-sought Caliph, to be the single negotiating official for all of the Muslim world. The man is clearly delusional, but I wonder what the rest of the Muslim world would think if we took him up on his offer and recognized him as leader and ruler over all of them?

I've heard similar claims about his health. Of course I've also heard from some 'people' that we actually got Zarqawi this time.
WmLambert Wrote:Eaglestrikes, I just wanted to correct your statement "It is well known these tapes are codes for actions. For similar actions see WW II and the announcements for D-Day."
That is well known. Is it not? Now where do I say that he was doing just that? What I pointed out was what he was known for doing. He was known for doing that. So again what is incorrect?

Quote:This tape and most bin Laden tapes are not designed to trigger actions.
You state that with a certainty. A certainty that no one else seems to posses. Again I ask, do you work for an intelligence organization that gives you privy to information no one else has?
They have in the past been designed to do just that. What changes that now? Let us remember that the original contention is that the possibility exist. I know of no evidence presented which changes that believe.

Quote:They are primarily propaganda to influence popular opinion.
You assign primacy of purpose. The CIA does not do that which serves to eliminate you as an associate in the company, (that and other reasons served to remove you from that realm of possibiity.
There have been multifold purposes assigned to those tapes. Communication for one. Propaganda for another, as well as morale boosting among the less than loyal, and the less fanatical.
Quote: Bin Laden, more than many terrorist leaders, tailors his communications for consumption in the West.
Close. There have been other transmissions targeted at, and for, his fellow Sauds, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Most of what he does is targeted toward the west. However that does not eliminate the signal possibility, rather it serves to enhance it. There are still cells in America.
I would question, heavily, any one who dismisses that out of hand, without real time, hard knowledge, that signals are not included. The contention being, why not ignore him. The answer being because the possibility exist that codes are being sent. You have shown nothing that eliminates that possibility.
Quote:His talks often call attention to statements made by Democrats in Washington who say thing in hopes of damaging Bush.
You are making it more obvious you are not in the intelligence gathering arena. There is information, and dis informations, there is direction, and misdirection. As a possible signal, NOT talking about the latest with the President, and his oponents can be a clear communication to someone else to take up the cudgel, or provide me with what I want, more information.
Quote:He takes their statements and reframes them as support for his agenda.
Not always. You are asserting this to be tried, and true, almost as rote.
There in lies a trap. you come to rely on what has happened before and believe that is what is happening now.
Quote: Al Jazeera has made no secret that they hold tapes for a length of time, and release them according to their own schedule.
Yes of coure. On a scale of 1 to 10, I trust Al Jazerra not at all. Nor for one moment do I accept them as reliable. They are an organ of the Muslim world. Nothing more. Goebbels would have loved them.
Quote:They seldom give complete details of how or when they acquired them, and probably see noncooperation with anti-terrorist investigators as virtuous.
Given.
Quote:If al Zawahiri or others planned actions on when al Jazeera released info, then nothing would follow any coordinated time schedule.
They would not plan actions on the information given, received, or asked for that required precise, or quick timing. They would carry out preplanned actions based on code words or provide information based on words or lack of words to the Head Quarters section UBL or his minions.
Again I ask what is incorrect. You have presented presumptions not evidence that none of his words were code or signla.
I will point out that I believe they were spliced together and I also believe it was from a long ago. That does not change the possibility that contained in there were words that were signals to do something.
You hold three queens, and nothing in the hole. You appear to be willing to bet the house on your opponents 1-3-5 and you have not seen the hole cards.
Are you old enough to know what Operation Phoenix was?
Eaglestrikes, are you suggesting that the operations leaders of al Qaeda cut together previously recorded tapes from bin Laden to give to al Jazeera for distribution, and then directs the timing of their release? Pre-recorded because they couldn't know ahead of time exactly what or when it is they want to direct to happen with whatever code words or signals are implanted in the tapes. They would need to select the coded phrases based on contemporaneous happenings and opportunities, and put them together to be distributed at the right time.

Regardless of any Intel analyst announcing whether such a code is there or not, do you think, in your own mind, that this is more practical than half-a-hundred other ways of directing information? Running an ad in a newspaper is a lot simpler - and just as codeworthy.

Occam's Razor and KISS are pretty necessary for telling far-flung terrorists what to do when.

No - these tapes may have inside stories, but they are made for general consumption. not to move mountains.
WmLambert Wrote:Eaglestrikes, are you suggesting that the operations leaders of al Qaeda cut together previously recorded tapes from bin Laden to give to al Jazeera for distribution, and then directs the timing of their release? Pre-recorded because they couldn't know ahead of time exactly what or when it is they want to direct to happen with whatever code words or signals are implanted in the tapes. They would need to select the coded phrases based on contemporaneous happenings and opportunities, and put them together to be distributed at the right time.

Regardless of any Intel analyst announcing whether such a code is there or not, do you think, in your own mind, that this is more practical than half-a-hundred other ways of directing information? Running an ad in a newspaper is a lot simpler - and just as codeworthy.

Occam's Razor and KISS are pretty necessary for telling far-flung terrorists what to do when.

No - these tapes may have inside stories, but they are made for general consumption. not to move mountains.
Occam's razor and KISS. Simplicity itself. Application of concepts familiar to one, foreign to another.
We shall have to bow to your unsupported expertise. You are convinced and so you shall remain. I do note with regret that not once did you provide your credentials, but then I know you are not family.
Well then on to other pursuits.
Eaglestrikes, you do realize that you have engaged in politics of personal dsestruction of a sort: ad hominem attack? Please don't shoot the messenger. I mention common sensical things and you immediately demand credentials?

I phrased my statements open-endedly for a reason - in order to draw comments. Your response could have been: Yes, I see what you mean, however... , or else: No, I get what you're driving at, but have you considered...? We don't need sycophancy here, or outright derision... In general we all learn more when everyone jumps in and expands on the topic - adding what they can. Sometimes an unprepossessing topic develops into something special.

I say the tapes were most likely not part of any Terrorist directives - there are less ambiguous ways to send info, which don't stand the chance of accidentally revealing bin Laden's whereabouts.
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