AI-Jane Political, And Economic Forums

On another thread, Palladin wrote:

Quote:I have to say, it seems to me MV is a little too willing to trust his sources and the rest of us are WAY too willing to trust our's.

Let me make another thread on this since there is a relevant article:

Kerry’s Propaganda War on Russia’s RT.

Quote:...
Kerry was warned three years ago by his predecessor of the steady strides being made by RT – as well as Al-Jazeera and CCTV (the new English-language programming set up by China). At a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee with then-Sen. Kerry in the chair, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lamented that the U.S. is “losing the information war,” and added that she finds watching RT “quite instructive.”

Are Kerry and Clinton unable to grasp that the U.S. corporate media’s regurgitation of the manifold and manifestly deceitful justifications for U.S. actions abroad is the main reason why RT and others are gaining on us? Despite awesome advances in communications technology, it remains difficult to make a silk purse out of a pig’s ear, which is often what U.S. policies abroad are, especially to the people of the targeted countries.

It is easy to blame “Russian propaganda” for just about everything, including the public distrust of the endless propaganda pouring forth from Official Washington and its “fawning corporate media.” But people tire of the constant spin from U.S. officials and the one-sided coverage by the U.S. mainstream press. I may be naïve about this, but I think people really do prefer the truth.
....

The entire situation is quite amusing, it is a full reversal. Back in 1970-1980s USSR was losing propaganda war... unimaginative state media repeating the same mantra and lies with little imagination could not compete with "enemy voices" (Western reporting). Now, the Statist state, even without explicit state control over the media, similarly reduced at least the Anglo-Saxon press to the ex-Soviet quality level, and Clinton and Kerry recognize this.

And here I have to agree with JohnL: technology does help, so one does not have to limit himself to the MSM sources. One can ignore all these Maddow and Becks, MSNBC and Fox, there is little difference between them anyway, and still get the information from RT, Al-Jazeera and CCTV (I have to start watching the last one).

Is the Western press totally useless now?

Not really. Science reporting, at least in some areas is still ok (just like it was in late USSR). And one can read between the lines and often discern enough this way. Just make sure that after reading one line of text to repeat "they are lying, you will not find the truth here, but you may be able to see what and why they are hiding."

Not that difficult, really.

And one more thing to remember: this will pass. Just like it happened to the Reich and the Soviet Union, US is doomed. Normalcy will return.

Got about three weeks to f*ck up an election. Better get cracking. The regime's grip on the East is slipping, but the project probably isn't going as well as had been hoped. If the whole thing doesn't crumble quickly enough, does Putin listen to the 'pleas' and go 'mobile'? ... or just maintain longer term slow boil?

(05-04-2014, 09:08 AM)mv Wrote: [ -> ]US is doomed.

The news of our demise, I think, is greatly exaggerated. The great anchor that is Obama will be cut loose in about two and a half years. Meanwhile, our energy resources are being developed at full pace ... mostly by U.S. companies, using U.S. technology ... and it's progressing well even with the full forces of the current Administration shoving back. We might be stuck on stupid for the moment, but at least there is a gear shift and clutch available ... eventually ... as you say ... "this will pass".

Meanwhile, how long will Russia's fortunes be tethered to Putin? He seems healthier than Brezhnev ... probably be running the show for another couple of decades. We've already watched this empire collapse once. I might be kept on life support indefinitely as a petromonger syndicate ... kinda like a larger better armed Slavic version of Nigeria. What are the odds that it will be necessary to reinstall electric fences and sniper towers to keep people penned in like the good old days? ... many seem to have forgotten ... but apparently there are some deer that learned a long term lesson.

I agree with Michael, AND the EVIL( ) Beck,......our days of interventionism need to end soonest. It is not in our long term interest to play the world's policeman. We should concentrate on what got us to the top of the heap in the first place.

A strong military? Absolutely, but only strong enough to take care of ourselves, and perhaps those who also adhere to the principles of Liberty. Otherwise, its none of our business. "You want to be our Real Friend? Start subscribing to personal and economic liberty. The rest of you, we will be civil and trade, but not protect your less than representative system." Its that simple folks.

Incidentally, Michael and I don't agree on the destruction of the US. Michael is, by nature, a pessimist, and I'm not. It is all going to depend on how we take care of this upcoming depression, and whether or not we start getting our fiscal and monetary house in order.

This is going to be a very turbulent and vicious century, and it will make the 20 century look a bit tame by comparison. So we need to get our economic house in order. And that means staying ouT of other people's affairs.



What part about that don't people seem to understand?

(05-04-2014, 12:05 PM)John L Wrote: [ -> ]And that means staying ouT of other people's affairs.

The last cold war was an expensive and messy affair. Now that we have the historical precedent that corrupt totalitarian regimes (even the biggest scariest ones) eventually crumble under their own weight, it would be costly and idiotic to repeat that mistake.

Per the conversation above, one of the most striking things is that the Russians are backing their guy with an approval rating well above 60% ... where as here ... and I expect most of Europe ... the published number is in the low 40s ... and I'd expect the unpublished number to be in the 20s or 30s. God help us if we ever get too warm and fuzzy with our political leadership. Too damn easy for that to get translated into a dangerous carte blanche. As for the Russians and their newly returned satellites ... like Mencken states in my tag line ... they "deserve to get it good and hard".

I'm not sure I agree with "upcoming depression" ... standard procedure is to have a BOOM before a bust. We've been in one long protracted bust for the last six and a half years John. This Administration has cast a never ending stream of marbles at our feet (Obamacare, tax increases, extended regulations, class/race warfare, a 'Justice' department that twists the arms of banks to choke the finances of legitimate, legal businesses, a BLM that drives ranchers out of business by cancelling leases on public lands, an EPA that has declared a war on coal (and cheap electricity and jobs), an interior department that refuses to grant access to mineral and oil resources) ... and yet we've managed somehow to clumsily stay upright. How could you possibly have the requisite deflation necessary for a depression when wages have remained stagnant or fallen for years? ... when the supply of dollars continues to skyrocket? Whatever is coming might be bad and destructive ... but I'm not sure that 'depression' is the correct technical term.

Putin's approval ratings are above 80% now, maybe about 90% already. 60s was the low point.

Quote:This is going to be a very turbulent and vicious century, and it will make the 20 century look a bit tame by comparison.

Agree, and again really bad you cannot listen to the Israeli guy. His last "show" began by saying that everyone (I guess meaning the US and Israel) expected a confrontation with China in about ten years, but the Ukrainian events accelerated this... some more interesting things were said.

But now mostly from myself, not Kadmi: the situation globally is very reminiscent of that exactly 100% years ago. Citing Lenin (omg!) inequality in the development of capitalist (extra word here) countries caused WWI. 100 years ago it was fast development rates in the US (#1 economy since 1872), Germany, and actually Russia as well while the two old powers were much slower. Today the configuration is different, but readjustment is still needed, #1 economy is China and it will be competitive militarily before long. Per Kedmi the two real issues to resolve are rising China and Arctic wealth... Ukraine is not in this category. But again, look at the prelude to WWI... Moroccan crisis and few other close calls.

So yes to John's quote. Yes to this too:

Quote:It is not in our long term interest to play the world's policeman. We should concentrate on what got us to the top of the heap in the first place.

not that this will happen, and things are short-term now, not long-term.

But no to this:

Quote:Incidentally, Michael and I don't agree on the destruction of the US. Michael is, by nature, a pessimist, and I'm not.

Actually, I'm the optimist here. I want the remaining major fascist power to be destroyed, like it happened with the Reich and USSR.

Quote: It is all going to depend on how we take care of this upcoming depression, and whether or not we start getting our fiscal and monetary house in order.

(1) Too late (2) Pointless without repairing the society itself, and absolutely too late for that.

And... yak, look at this article: Why the Russian sanctions don’t work.

Oh, a bit more on the China angle:

The golfer is actually doing a great job speeding the US demise.... in the middle of the Ukrainian crisis going to Asia to threaten China. Obama's Key Message in Asia: If China Wants a Fight, We've Got Your Back. Great timing! Not that he can do much, really: Why America Can’t Contain China... but he did succeed in arranging join Russia-China military drills (lazy to look up the link).

So the rearrangement may well happen sooner than in a decade.

Since this was supposed to be about propaganda... apparently Kerry talked again.

Kerry: Russian Saboteurs Hiding in Ukraine Refrigerators

Quote:Secretary of State John Kerry is considering issuing a new travel alert for American citizens, advising them not to open refrigerators when visiting the Ukraine.

botox kills brain cells ....

What we should be afraid of is the recent Nazification of Russia. Putin is enough intelligent not to fall in this trap, but the Russian poeple is jumping in it with both feet.

Truely, Putin's retaking Crimea without firing a shot, and taking elite Berkut with him, was remarkable. Illegal but remarkable. A few weeks later nobody contests that Crimea is Russian territory anymore.
In East Ukraine he is no less remarkable because he doesn't rush, he is patient, he waits, he takes no risk.

The problem is that he and his associates are calling on the sentiment of the racial superiority of the Russian Nation (and the russiasn language), and the reunification of the Russian Poeple into the Great Russia.

It's not surprised that recently French fascist leader Marine Lepen has been recieved by Putin and was welcome by the Duma with deafening applaus.

Today in Ukraine, Putin's actions are justified only by the idea that some poeple there speak Russian and therefore belong to Russia (no matter what these so-called russians want) and the Great Russian Army owe to go save them from... pro-West fascists!

The US has made lots of mistakes, notably by the idea of Nation Building and failed.
A mix of naiveness and scandalous corruption and waste of public money.
Th West, not only the US has also been humniliated by the subprime and soveriegn debt crisis. In the latter, the EU has suffered a huge discredibility eventhought it was not responsible.
Ironicaly nationalism became stronger whereas national entities were responsible! Nationalism, euroskepticism, separatism, all sweet words for Putin's ears!

But the West is aware of that and starts applying different policies by disengaging from the Middle East, exit from Afghanistan, no intervention in Ukraine (save afew very symbolic santions).

If we can put things on a sinus wave, Russia is actualy at the top and the West at the bottom, but both could reverse in a few years.

The Great Russian Nation need desperately to slip on a soap and make all of us laugh about it.

Thing about the American media is, they might oppose each other like Fox and MSNBC, when the US "speaks", they parrot it altogether. Maybe it's always been this way and I just started not believing it all, I honestly don't know.

One reason the US appeared to have cred is our enemies. We had Tojo,Hitler then Stalin.

It's seriously hard to look worse than that level of bad. Now that we don't have the same level of ogres and have killed off Saddam, we're using the same, "it's us versus Hitler/Stalin" pr program and it works with Americans and some west Euros, it isn't fooling anyone else. No one is coming to America singing anything more than "where's the money".

Palladin, The Iraq War was a spectacular lie and crime against humanity. The economic crisis a few years later exposed the bigest organised theft of all time.

So, yes, the ideology of democracy vs oppression doesn't sell anymore.

Quote:One reason the US appeared to have cred is our enemies.

Big reason, not just one reason. The thing is that in a multi-polar world it does not matter if one of the players goes fascist all that much... it will be outcompeted eventually, or destroyed by others, and we will get one more lesson that fascism is not efficient long-term (consider late USSR or the US today).
The danger is when it is the largest player, capable of controlling most of the world, goes rogue. This is the US today. USSR and the Reich never reached this level of dominance but both had a potential to get there with some luck. And while the US type of fascism does not measure up YET to the standards of Reich or Stalinist USSR in terms of its evilness, coupled with the US still considerable might it makes the US a more serious threat to humanity than either the Reich or USSR ever were.

Quote:What we should be afraid of is the recent Nazification of Russia. Putin is enough intelligent not to fall in this trap, but the Russian poeple is jumping in it with both feet.

Somehow I don't understand how Nazification is possible without Putin taking some part in it... ?????

Actually, the danger is minimal.
Firstly, while Nationalism is definitely on the upswing in Russia, so far it is in the benevolent form ... it is "we are proud of ourselves", not "we are better than others".
Secondly, the definition of "we" is not nation-based, it is a cultural entity instead, built around Russian culture (just like the US is built around English-language culture). People fighting in Donetsk are mostly Ukrainians by passports (yes, Russian-speaking). Of the two correspondents of Kp.ru is Slovyansk I've been following (brave guys btw, they make sure to be on the scene) one is Russian, the other one is Jew (and I've seen a load of Ukrainian jokes about his name already, it is kind of inviting.) And this type of nationalism implies firstly that it is not going to sell in different cultural areas (no repeat of the Ukrainian events in Poland or beyond is possible, only in historic parts of the Russian empire). And secondly that national discrimination is quite unlikely in a system that historically emphasized cultural affinity, not the roots.

(Quite a lot of Russians btw have foreign roots.. the Czar dynasty was nearly 100% German.. of the two poets considered the greatest one had African roots, the other Scottish.. and there are loads more of such examples.)

Of course, a more virulent form of nationalism, one that trends toward Nazism, the one with "sub-human" ideas, like in Ukraine, is still possible in Russia. Just like in any other state. But we have no evidence of such trends now (the longer the Ukrainian conflict lasts the more likely such trends do develop). And again, as long as Russia is not capable of dominating the entire world, even this unlikely development is OK. Someone else without this craziness will do better.

Remember that we will still have China, India and probably Brazil in the game. Maybe Japan. Maybe Germany. Maybe a successor North American state. Good enough... the more the merrier.

mv Wrote:Putin's approval ratings are above 80% now, maybe about 90% already. 60s was the low point.

Jeez, talk about setting the bar low! Why not go the Fidel Castro or Saddam Hussein route and announce 110% approval ratings?

Regarding sanctions ... they don't work because they really weren't designed to. Gazprom and Rosn(th)eft aren't even on the list. Formal sanctions are a bad joke. Capital flight ... aka investors keeping a hand on their wallets ... is a different matter. BP, Shell and Exxon have symbiotic political patrons that can cushion their losses to some extent. But the global capital market is no longer completely a sugar daddy driven affair. Too many of us great unwashed are involved. No individual investor with half a brain and without access to a politically based financial backstop would ever consider dumping cash into the rathole that is the Russian economy ... particularly when Venezuela and Argentina seem like much better options if you want to put your whole roulette wad on 'red'.

Quote: ... the Russian poeple is jumping in it with both feet.

One of the links above refers to this as a social covenant. A teeny loss of liberty ... in exchange for a drastic improvement in living standards ... pretty much the same that Obama has been promising for the last half decade or so ... same 'ol same 'ol ... except Putin is far more popular ... and doesn't wear "Mom pants". I doubt Putin will opt for "Mom pants" ... but the improved living standards? ... what happens if they don't materialize? How do Russians measure such things even if they did materialize?

Ratints (Wash Post).

Working sanctions would have hit Europe most.

(05-04-2014, 09:15 PM)mv Wrote: [ -> ]Ratints (Wash Post).

Working sanctions would have hit Europe most.

Sure BP and Shell. The Netherlands is a huge Russian trading partner .. probably the largest. But it takes time to change piping around. Germany is retuning to coal ... that will take time to (re)develop as well ... probably some social retooling to boot. Rome wasn't built in a day. Reducing Russia's energy client list down to China will take a while. I get the whole psych boost of reassembling an empire and restoring national pride. I haven't quite figured out what the Putin version of the the "Versailles Treaty" car might be. I'm sure he has something interesting in mind ... but I doubt it will be very good for his nation. Again, you don't realize how surreal this is for me mv. Complaining about belligerence of intelligent popular leader ... while toiling under the (albeit temporary) yoke of an belligerent, unpopular dolt. Have pity!

1. Not just BP and Shell. Check the list of the German companies opposing the sanctions. Debka has it in one of its recent articles, for instance. Plus two German ex-chancellors who still have a lot of power are involved. Then there are French with their defense deal of the century ... and much else.

2. Actually if Germany indeed goes to coal (or nuclear, or gas from the US), this all would have happened anyway, sanctions or not. And none of this is happening any times soon, 5 years from now there will be different considerations. And for all we know 5 years from now LENR will be finally tuned up and everything changes.

One thing that need to be understood is that everything Putin has been doing was forced on him. There would have been no crisis and no talk about "empire building" (which it is not) if it were not for the coup in Kiev. But then it was not smart at all to force this scenario on Putin and not computing just where it leads.



Incidentally, I checked the site of another popular sci-fi author in Russia today (writers are always listen to if they are good... tradition, remember Solzhenitsyn....) Anyway, Andrew Cruz wrote on his blog that if Putin does not react to Odessa by at least supplying the weapons, then F*ck Putin. The connection? If Putin shows weakness, his 80% will become 60% overnight. or 40%. And I'm sure Putin knows this too. And this is not the only constrain on him either.

And this makes the entire talk about sanctions less interesting. We can get into more exciting things quite easily. Heck, we are actually closer to a nuclear exchange than at any moment in the last fifty years! Who cares about a few dollars in this (or a few others) scenarios?


Again, it is really too bad you cannot listen to Kedmi's clips......

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Quote: Complaining about belligerence of intelligent popular leader ... while toiling under the (albeit temporary) yoke of an belligerent, unpopular dolt. Have pity!

yeah, this is quite funny indeed... the kind of funny when the driver of your bus downs one drink after another.... and there is no way to exit.

Regarding sanctions/economy: Check this item.

The losses to MC/Visa indeed would not be major at this point, but setting up a National Payment system is a good step toward decentralization of World's economy. ASAIK, China already has one. For now, the security deposit requirement will restrain Visa/MC and create additional funds that can be arrested when needed, and when the new system system is operational, Visa/MC can be driven off the market.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/ --- surprisingly similar view to Kadmi's

mv Wrote:The danger is when it is the largest player, capable of controlling most of the world, goes rogue. This is the US today. USSR and the Reich never reached this level of dominance but both had a potential to get there with some luck. And while the US type of fascism does not measure up YET to the standards of Reich or Stalinist USSR in terms of its evilness, coupled with the US still considerable might it makes the US a more serious threat to humanity than either the Reich or USSR ever were.

I agree with this. The US is more dangerous by its global-size power alone than North Korea or Iran are with their fanaticism.

I would even say that's almost impossible not to be dangerous for others once you reach a certain size militarily.

mv Wrote:Somehow I don't understand how Nazification is possible without Putin taking some part in it... ?????

Because Putin is intelligent enough not to want that.
Putin is a staunch nationalist but he is not a retard.

This kind of behavior often start from the base, until some politicians take it up.

mv Wrote:while Nationalism is definitely on the upswing in Russia, so far it is in the benevolent form ... it is "we are proud of ourselves", not "we are better than others".

I agree. So far it has been so. Yet, I'm afraid that they slowly move form "proud" to "racist", without them noticing it. It can come very quickely.

Because of the Ukraine crisis:
The Poeple's Donestk Republic has been created purely on a racial basis (a race actualy based on language more than skin color), on the basis that Russians live there, so there must be a Russian state. This is nationalism on a racial basis because it's not the poeple against an oligarchist regime (oligarchs are on both sides) or a fight to live better, it's just that by being Russian, they have nothing to do with Ukrainians.
They could protest to ask the impeachement of the Kiev's Junta, and I would understand them, but instead they ask for separation of the country and some of them, for joing Russia, because they are Russians and no other reason.

And in Russia, Russians may start to think that all the places where the Russian language is spoken should one day come back to the Motherland.
That the only presence of ethnic Russians in another country is a justification to annex this country or part of it.
For exemple, they think it's perfectly legitimate to take Odessa by force because Odessa is 51% russian speaking. + some historical roots to add up.

Right Sector has a different approach. They are fighting to defend their country, but they also do it on a racial basis: For them Ukrainians are superior to Russians and everything russian should disapear from the Ukrainian soil.

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Was about time that Russia thought of having an independant card payment system, don't you think?
Visa and Master Card don't have to be universal. And they are not. In Belgium my Master Card is often turned down by vendors who are affiliated to Mister Cash who preceded them and made sure that their network stay incompatible with others for the next 1000 years.

You are really unfamiliar with the region:

Quote:The Poeple's Donestk Republic has been created purely on a racial basis (a race actualy based on language more than skin color), on the basis that Russians live there, so there must be a Russian state. This is nationalism on a racial basis because it's not the poeple against an oligarchist regime (oligarchs are on both sides) or a fight to live better, it's just that by being Russian, they have nothing to do with Ukrainians.

Everyone in Donetsk speaks Russian. Including those who are listed as ethnic Ukrainians in their papers. You cannot distinguish the two. And incidentally in Donetsk "Ukrainians" are the majority! But twice-biased IFES poll (another thread, bias #1 -- American poll, bias #2 -- taken before the fighting started) shows 80% of the population believing that Kiev government is illegitimate.

Quote:Right Sector has a different approach. They are fighting to defend their country, but they also do it on a racial basis: For them Ukrainians are superior to Russians and everything russian should disapear from the Ukrainian soil.

And this is wrong too, the position of Right Sector is shared by most of the Kiev politicians, Timoshenko called for killing every 'Moskal' in the Ukraine on TV! The only difference between RS and the new Kiev elite is not in the views but in the RS willing to do the killing themselves, while the Kiev Junta uses others.

Quote:This kind of behavior often start from the base, until some politicians take it up.

mv Wrote:while Nationalism is definitely on the upswing in Russia, so far it is in the benevolent form ... it is "we are proud of ourselves", not "we are better than others".

I agree. So far it has been so. Yet, I'm afraid that they slowly move form "proud" to "racist", without them noticing it. It can come very quickely.

Don't worry about something that may happen at some remote point, we have plenty of real things to worry about (like the RS and the US). No evidence that such attitude will form.

But, I'll grant you this: every time Kiev kills and even every time Kiev talks, the amount of hatred rises. If this goes for long enough, unthinkable becomes possible.

Quote:Was about time that Russia thought of having an independant card payment system, don't you think?
Visa and Master Card don't have to be universal. And they are not. In Belgium my Master Card is often turned down by vendors who are affiliated to Mister Cash who preceded them and made sure that their network stay incompatible with others for the next 1000 years.

Bravo to the Belgians! Now, drop Euro and become real people....

ASAIK Russia was considering such system for a couple of years but moved to implementation only now.