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Escaping a Black Hole

If there is one thing that Obama’s current problems with Syria – and his own big mouth – indicate, it is that we have fought the War on Terror for twelve years and we are still no closer to actually escaping the crux of the problem. This is the one true failing of the Bush Administration and Obama, who tried to brand himself as the anti-Bush, has failed to cope with it too.

The problem can be summarised as follows. We are at war with a strain of Radical Islam that seeks the destruction of all other ways of life (including Muslims who don’t share their beliefs). This ideology is closely linked to states like Saudi Arabia, where the Royal Family cannot crush it without risking their own position, and festers in places where law and order are a joke. In places like Libya, Egypt, Palestine or even parts of Afghanistan, the Islamists often seem the better option when compared to tyrannical governments.

Once in power, or closely linked to power (as in Saudi), these so-called Islamists will do two things; they reshape local society to fit their views on what a society should be like and they begin spreading their ideology as far as they can. Naturally, there is no thought of surrendering power. Like all other ideological movements throughout the century, the radicals are convinced that they know best. The views of those who disagree with them are clearly misguided and can be disregarded. (And then those who disagree are exterminated.)

However, it is our ties to the Middle East that pose the gravest danger. We need oil from the Middle East. Without oil, the global economy would break down. This means that we cannot afford to manhandle Saudi Arabia into dealing with the terrorists; there are limits to how far we can push them in the right direction. This gives Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing states an advantage that they use to manipulate global affairs in their favour. It also helps to fund the spread of the Saudi-approved version of Islam, which produces terrorists and insurgents for the wars in various countries. (Those schools in Pakistan that provide cannon fodder for the wars are funded by Saudi Arabia.) This is the improvised explosive device that must be disarmed carefully – or the world will shiver when it finally detonates.

You think not? Osama Bin Laden would not have been a menace to global society if he hadn't been extremely wealthy. Funding a full-fledged terrorist network, complete with base camps in Afghanistan, was not exactly cheap. It is funding that made the difference between a tiny band of fighters and an international terrorist network. It is this funding that we have to cut off at source.

Which brings us back to the crux of the problem. If chaos spreads out of Syria, it will weaken the Middle Eastern governments and further destabilise the world economy. No matter the truth of the claims that chemical weapons were used, Obama and his cabinet have to worry about the effects of not intervening just as much as they have to worry about actually intervening. But why should we have to worry about this at all?

Oil. If sources of oil are threatened, the economy will take a nasty hit.

Not that this is the only problem. Let us consider just how many European countries rushed to invest in Libya once the sanctions were lifted. Somehow, those countries discovered that Libya suddenly had colossal leverage over them when there were political disputes. (Indeed, maintaining the balance between offending a dictator and offending the rebels, who might inherit Libya, was a major headache during the Libyan Intervention.) When those investments were threatened, Western Governments generally backed down. The jingle-jangle of money made it harder to take action against Libya.

Put crudely, we are effectively paying for the noose our enemies intend to wrap around our necks.

To some extent, the Bush Administration did attempt to come to terms with this problem. If Iraq were to be liberated, Iraqi oil could flow into the global market and make it harder for the Saudis to manipulate the world in their favour. However, the occupation was poorly planned, at least partly because few were willing to admit that opening up those reserves of oil was as important as spreading democracy and the rule of law.

However, the Bush Administration (and now the Obama Administration) have not gone far enough.

We will not win this war until we show those who follow this destructive ideology that it is a road to hell. In order to do this, we must show them that they can achieve nothing for themselves. The glory days of Islamic civilisation are long past and the Islamists, all unwitting, are destroying the spark that might allow Islam to regenerate itself. Very little, save oil, is produced in the Middle East. Where Israel made the desert bloom, the Arabs have not. One might well conclude that oil was a curse, not a blessing. When the oil runs out, the Middle East will collapse.

It is this dependency that we have to overcome.

We got a clear warning during the oil boycott. We didn't listen.

We got a clear warning when Saddam invaded Kuwait. We didn’t listen.

We got a clear warning when it became clear that OBL had strong ties to Saudi Arabia. We didn't listen.

We got a clear warning when Putin started playing with energy exports to manipulate Europe. We didn't listen.

We should have unleashed a project on a greater scale than the Manhattan Project, one to research new sources of energy and, perhaps more immediately important, conserve oil. (I read once that if the US produced cars to EU standards, demands for gas would drop sharply. I don’t know if that is actually true (automobile requirements are different) but it’s definitely something to research.) Cold fusion. Space-based solar-power collectors. Geothermal power. Improved nuclear reactors. Instead of a ham-handed search for inefficient ‘green’ energy, we should be searching for ways to reduce the oil dependency and escape the black hole.

Or we could just start drilling in the US, which the Greens seem to have blocked.

This will allow us to win. Can they drink oil? No – and absent a buyer, oil is largely worthless. Without the funds coming in from the West, Saudi Arabia and the other oil-producing states will be thrown back on their own resources. Their governments, held up by oil, will collapse. Let their population see, as comprehensively as the Russians saw in 1991, the essential bankruptcy of their system. Let ‘Islam is the only solution’ be tested in real life, without a lifeline from the West.

This is what we have to do.

They know it. Do you think that it was a coincidence that an anti-fracking film was sponsored by Abu Dhabi?

Time is running out. Oil is essentially a finite resource; it can and it will run out. (A book, Twilight in the Desert, argues that Saudi Arabia is already approaching the end of its oil reserves.) The time to escape this black hole is now.

Too much time has already been wasted.

(A short introduction to Fracking and its potential can be found here.)
Chris, a few years ago, I would totally agree with you here. However, things are quickly changing.

First of all, the rest of the world, other than the Muslim Middle East, is beginning to change. If you look closely at Euro-Land, you are beginning to see the opening shots(by some) to curtail the power of Islam. So called 'Far Right' parties are gaining strength and taking over governments. Norway is the latest example. Other than Sweden all this free style immigration is about to come to a screeching halt, I predict. And don't underestimate the folks in Britain. You blokes will only swallow just so much manure before you have had enough. That's why Ukip is suddenly the number three party there, and most likely the number two party very soon.

Here's another example of how Islam is suffering. I discuss why Turkey lost its bid for the 2020 Olympiad host duties. I went on and explained why granting Tokyo the honour, was much more than just a rejection of Erdogan.

But by far worse than anything else, Mid-East oil dominance is quickly beginning to unravel. Fracking is the immediate threat to their dominance, with the US, and Canada, quickly becoming the dominant oil producers. And all this is in spite of Obama's refusal to authorize this on government held lands. It is all coming from private property, and once Obama is gone, expect North America to quickly become the world's energy producing powerhouse. And the US has such debt that it will have no other choice but exploit its energy reserves, due to the taxes it will generate, in order to service the debt.

But that is not all. Oil, and natural gas, fields are being discovered all over the globe. So much for 'Peak Oil' and that totally antiquated superstition of 'Fossil Fuels'. Its only a matter of time before the 'abiotic' theory finally gains universal acceptance.

So, over time the world of Islam is going to have far less influence than it has even now. And Obama's attempt to change the area, is creating far more trouble than it could even hope to cure. The man is clearly doing his utmost to accomplish two goals. First, he is a true friend of the Islamic Fundamentalist movement, be it the Muslim Brotherhood, or al-Qaida. The man has no shame in my opinion.

And Secondly, he is purposefully doing his utmost to bring down the US constitutional system, which our Founding Fathers established. He is a dedicated Collectivist, intent on forcing Collectivism upon the nation. As Benito Mussolini understood, the first step is Fascism, followed by main line Socialism, and lastly Marxism. And guess which political system is the most prevalent around the world. If you say 'Fascism', You Win! Remember the lyrics by John Lennon on the hit "Revolution".

You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don't you know that you can count me out

That's right, revolution is out, and evolution is in. The goal is to evolve first into Fascism, followed by..........................

Sorry, but I do digress here. My point is that Obama is following the grand plan, and using the world of Islam, along with destroying the US's constitutional system are all part and parcel of the same strategy.

A few years ago I would not have believed this; but no longer. All of this is just too obvious for even someone with Down's Syndrome.
Chris, your understanding of Middle East importance because of Oil is outdated. John is correct in pointing out the abiotic oil concept will win out over thinking Dinosaurs died to fuel our cars.

It is as correct to note how it was Western engineering and know-how that opened the Middle-East oil fields and can as easily replace them.
I don't think we can easily replace them because Saudis oil is still much cheaper than any other source, fracking or otherwise.

Also the effect of fracking on the environement are still unkown. It can for example, flood ground water reserves with hydrocarbures and destroy huge source of drinkable water.

The second problem is that radical Islam is not a realy a problem for the West. The occupation of Iraq was a total disaster but since almost all terrorist activities ocured on muslim land.

When Obama replaced Bush as the Occupier-in-Chief of the M-E, he made an excellent job in fixing what Bush did wrong. He evacuated Iraq, intensified the fight against the Taliban before starting evacuation there too, he focused more on Iran, nuclear threat #1 and finaly it's him, almost personaly who gunned down OBL.

All these seriousely weaken al-Qaida. In Syria Obama played like a master in luring al-Qaida into an unwinnable war.

You forgot in your analysis the importance of Iran. The whole game now, to keep radical islam in check, is to oppose or encourage the opposition between shiites and sunnites, Iran versus Saudi Arabia basicaly.
Today Iran is worse a threat than al-Qaida because they may have nukes soon, and once they have nukes the situation will become realy realy complicated.

Of course talking positively about Obama here is against the forum's (unwritten) rules and can even be qualified as OFF TOPIC since the only topic here seems to be "how bad is Obama -discuss it here-" but this is my opinion.
(09-23-2013, 04:15 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think we can easily replace them because Saudis oil is still much cheaper than any other source, fracking or otherwise.

Fred, you are missing the basic economics here. The world 'spot' price for oil is based on certain classifications of crude oil. The price is the same for any country on the market. The only other major price additions are transportation and refining costs. The difference in cost of getting it out of the ground is where the profit margins occur. Saudis are currently making more profit off of their oil. But their production numbers are declining, and will continue over time. And "fracking, or otherwise" will continue to become cheaper to use.

Quote:Also the effect of fracking on the environement are still unkown. It can for example, flood ground water reserves with hydrocarbures and destroy huge source of drinkable water.

That is simply not true. Fracking has been tested more than any process in oil production history. Its been studied front, back, sideways, and even had the closest anal exam to date. It does not affect ground water, because the oil, and natural gas, is much deeper than the water supply. Even if natural gas gets mixed in with the water, it passes through it and does not affect it.

Department of Energy study claims fracking is safe, contradicting previous findings. I wonder if Putin ok'd this report?

Fracking’s safety gets boost from federal research
Preliminary data finds no link to water supply contamination

Somebody else can address the rest of your post. Its unrelated to my above points.
John, the price of oil depends largely on how much Saudis are pumping or not pumping.

Short of water cars or Li-Ion powered cars we are dependant on them.

[Image: oilmap.jpg]

And fracking is declared safe by the Energy Department... and you believe them?
You're still missing the point here Fred. The Saudis are going to keep pumping their quota because they have to. Their operating expenses demand it. If you think an oil producing country can afford to halt production, you are from another planet. If the Saudis, or the Iranians, or Nigeria, halted production, their economies would collapse very quickly.

Now, again the price of oil is determined by the world markets and used around the world daily.

And your map makes no sense. The US and Canada have the largest reserve of oil and natural gas, period. So why is the picture showing these two countries in such small size?

And also, the Obama Administration has done all it can to discourage fracking. They have placed government lands off limits, so all the fracking today is done on private lands. And the industry is literally booming. So, the Energy Department was forced to reluctantly admit that fracking was not harmful, after making the industry jump through so many hoops before they were cleared for the process.

Let me say this again. The government reluctantly gave its blessings because they couldn't find fault with the process. You really need to read up on this Fred. I'm serious here.
Ok I'll read.