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Stratfor is going to list what they think are the top ten geopolitical events of the last decade. They are going to do it from 10 to 1, one per day. #10 is Obama's surge.

I wonder if we want to write our own list to compare?

Let me throw in a few ... I don't think I can make 9.

A> 9/11 -- obviously.
B> US Attack on Iraq.
C> Bush' surge.
D> Defeat of the US in Georgian war and Putin's resurgence
E> Global fiscal crisis and beginning of EU unraveling
F> Climategate and AGW unraveling.

The first three I'm pretty sure will be listed by Stratfor, the last three likely would not be.

More guesses?
How about Wikileaks? That just came up immediately. I'll try to think of others.
you need to add something with israel, or are you saying they can't make the top ten? hey, they represent 50% of the news. what do you mean by "e"? global financial crisis of course, but did you want to say "the unravelling of the usa"? their inevitable collapse will be #3 of the next decade, following the demise of capitalism, and #1 global warming caused by greenhouse-gas emissions.

G> Wikileaks -- but after Stratfor's repeated articles that this is not a geopolitical event I doubt.
Israel -- hmm...
H> Israeli-Turkish breakup?
I> Gaza retreat?

Meanwhile, we have two:

Quote:#10: Dec 1, 2009. OBAMA ANNOUNCED SURGE IN AFGHANISTAN. At a speech at West Point, U.S. President Barack Obama announced that the United States would continue American involvement in at least one major war in the Islamic world while continuing to engage in a smaller one. Operationally, he switched the U.S. focus from Iraq to Afghanistan, but from a broader view he maintained the focus on the Islamic world. The window of opportunity for other powers to act while the United States was otherwise occupied thus would remain open.

Quote:#9 Aug 7, 2008. RUSSO-GEORGIA war. In the first major foreign military operation by Russia since Afghanistan, the Russians delivered two messages. One was that they were able and willing to use military force. The second was that being aligned with the United States does not provide protection. The message was heard in many capitals of the former Soviet Union, and is still being heard.
I think the attack on Serbia is among the top 1-3 myself. IMO,that's when the Russians lost their naivete about the Americans and re-oriented the nation against the US.

I know it happened right outside the decade window,but,IMO,it was a huge strategic error.
Palladin, just after the bombardment of Belgrad I remember the siren blaring in my city, it was weird.
On the other hand Russia itself was very chaotic.
What about China surpass of Japan in GDP?

Yea,China's GDP might be the single most significant fact on earth because it's only a matter of time before they tame us of our Asian ambitions. I hope it is w/o war.
Palladin Wrote:Green,

Yea,China's GDP might be the single most significant fact on earth because it's only a matter of time before they tame us of our Asian ambitions. I hope it is w/o war.
Yes, it is without war. But China is building military capabilities all around the sphere of its influence.

They are building up naval capabilities in the Yellow Sea, South China Sea etc. that will soon outnumber US capabilities and those of South Korea and Japan. Interesting to see what they will use that for, they have some territory disputes with their neighbors but it could also mean that North Korea get some unexpected 'help' as China still is considered a North Korea ally (or at least not against North Korea).

In other areas, they are building a partnership with Pakistan that will make it more difficult for the US to relay on Pakistan in Afghanistan for example. China is the no.1 supplier of military equipment to Pakistan already and China will for sure soon be a problem for the US when it comes to using drone attacks in the Pakistan tribal regions. That is just a matter of time when those will have to stop.

I agree. Everyone in Asia has to be prepared to have China "lead" Asia.

The key is does China become like the post WWII US and think they are divinely inspired to rule the earth or not?

If not,world war may be avoided assuming we're wise enough to avoid fighting them in Asia over Asia.
#8 is the Rise of Iran -- imho, cheating because this is not an event, but a process.
mv Wrote:#8 is the Rise of Iran -- imho, cheating because this is not an event, but a process.

The local drug gang war is probably more significant to our safety and economy than all these problems 5000 miles away combined X10.

There is no reason it's spread into Guatamala cannot as easily be north:

Quote:# 7 - NATO Expands

Huh? I'd call this "NATO becomes irrelevant", if anything.

An Israeli item that should be on the list: the Israeli-Hizbollah war. (The first war that Israel did not win.)
Is Dr. Friedman finally becoming senile?
Quote:#6 - Dr. Friedman meets Dr. Alzheimer

...possible.. Wink1
i reckon we have a new no. 1.

the wedding of prince william and kate middleton,

and a new no. 2

the fukushima nucular catastrophe.
No, this is for the 2nd decade list. If UK lasts until 2020, I'm sure the wedding will be on the next list. Wink1
IMO The current Middle East and North African uprising will be #1, even ahead of 911.

/Middle East and North African uprisings
/Iran developing nukes (that will be #1 in the next decade)
/911 and the Afghan war (I can't differenciate the two)
/Bush invades Iraq
/General Collapse of the US Banking Industry
/Eastern Europe joins the EU
/The rise of China
/Euro PIIGS debt nightmare
/North Korea nuke test
/Obama, the first POTUS who is "different" (and not only because he's 1/2 black)
/The election of Hugo Chavez
/The election of Nicholas Sarkozy
/Musharaff loses power
/Drug War in Mexico
/Isreali settlers leave Gaza
/An Islamic Party rules Turkey
/Israel attacks Hizbollah in Lebanon
/Polish president plane crash in Smolensk

If we can go back to 1994 (all post-communist era):

/The € become a circulating currency
/Putin takes power in Russia and defeat the Chechens
/Kosovo and the war on Milosevic
/The Rwandan Genocide
/The Tech Bubble Crash
/The Russian Financial crisis
/The Death of Mobutu Sese Seko
/Election of Nelson Mandela
For a major event that involves Israel, I would include the Stuxnet attack on Iran's nuclear development program. Of course, there has been no official acknowledgement of responsibility. But it has the "Hadassah" earmark. And all the cleverness of a Mossad covert operation.
That's included in the "Iran developing Nukes" context. Yet you can rename it "Stuxnet attack on Iran's nuclear development program" if you think it's more relevant.
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