Poll: Will Rumsfeld keep his job until November?
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On possible Rumsfeld's resignation
#1
You may find the following interesting.

Stratfor on Rumsfeld, as of yesterday

Interesting even if the events clearly did not materialize the way Stratfor expected them to. What happened instead is that by attacking Rumsfeld over the Iraqi torture scandal---the one thing that he was not guilty of, and also one thing that could not allowed to go too far up the chain of command --- the press effectively pushed Bush into the protective mode and Rumsfeld was saved.

At least for now. The issue may come up again once the torture story is off the screens.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#2
I don't think Rumsfeld was ever in danger, not at this juncture (too close to the election). His resignation would have created chaos in the pentagon, the people he put in place would not be there when the new leadership comes into play.

There would have no political advantage to the resignation either. Those that demanded the resignation of Rumsfeld would have attacked Bush without Rumsfeld to take the heat anyway.
"I detest the man who hides one thing in the depths of his heart and speaks forth another"
-Homer
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#3
I agree too. You and I must have heard Tony Snow earlier. He said pretty much the same thing. 8)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
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#4
Quote:There would have no political advantage to the resignation either

Political == probably no.

There is, however, a very essential national need to show that those who screw up (and Rumsfeld did) are fired. Bush did not fire *anyone* yet even if screw ups were aplenty.

And back to political: the essential Bush' message remains: everything is going fine. I'm not certain he can keep this message until the elections. We are still five months away, so replacements at this time are possible without damaging the reelection changes.

(I really like Rumsfeld btw).
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#5
Success will make minor failures disappear. This is a minor failure.
"I detest the man who hides one thing in the depths of his heart and speaks forth another"
-Homer
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#6
Likewise, if even one more prison abuse scandal is uncovered, there's a good chance Rumsfeld could end up resigning.
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#7
I can buy what Baldar says, but not

Anonymous24 Wrote:Likewise, if even one more prison abuse scandal is uncovered, there's a good chance Rumsfeld could end up resigning.

Abuse has to be shown to be a local problem. We cannot afford hinting that it goes all the way to the top. I suspect that another abuse scandal actually will make Rumsfeld firing-proof.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#8
There was no scandal. It is an artificial scandal. There was no cover up, everything was duly reported and acted upon.
"I detest the man who hides one thing in the depths of his heart and speaks forth another"
-Homer
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#9
Baldar Wrote:There was no scandal. It is an artificial scandal. There was no cover up, everything was duly reported and acted upon.

Huh? Where are you getting the connection between "scandal" and "cover-up"?

Anyway, I've added a poll. I still doubt Rumsfeld will survive the next few months; the potential for some new mess in Iraq is just too large.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#10
"
Abuse has to be shown to be a local problem. We cannot afford hinting that it goes all the way to the top. I suspect that another abuse scandal actually will make Rumsfeld firing-proof."

If another scandal breaks, the only way to somehow salvage Iraqi public opinion(and American public opinion going into an election) would be to scapegoat someone. It would salvage Iraqi public opinion because it would be a P.R. move to show that these abuses were the result of poor management on Rumsfeld's part, and not endemic of American troops in general. It would also show that the Bush administration was serious about changing the policies that led to the abuses. It would help Bush's own rating because it would remove the abuses from himself and blame a certain element of his administration. Kinda like how Reagan fired Oliver North or Nixon kept firing people during Watergate.
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#11
I suppose I look at normal malfeasence to by a small group to be actions of a few and not scandalous in a sense that it can hurt someone as far up the chain of command as Rumsfeld.
"I detest the man who hides one thing in the depths of his heart and speaks forth another"
-Homer
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#12
It's about perception, not reality. If another scandal were to break about prisoner abuses in Iraq, with photo evidence as in the first one, that would be enough for the Iraqis and a majority of Americans to think that prisoner abuse in Iraq is endemic and the result of policy decisions.
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#13
Anonymous24 Wrote:It's about perception, not reality. If another scandal were to break about prisoner abuses in Iraq, with photo evidence as in the first one, that would be enough for the Iraqis and a majority of Americans to think that prisoner abuse in Iraq is endemic and the result of policy decisions.

Exactly. And to prevent this kind of perception, it would be very important to find relatively low-level scapegoats. Like that Lady-General.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#14
Yeah, but I seriously think that if photos from another prison were unearthed showing Iraqi prisoners being abused, the fallout would be so big that scapegoating that one woman general or a series of generals would not be enough.
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#15
How many minor failures do we need to add up to one big mother? I mean - we've had a lot of minor failures as of late - don't you think?
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#16
I wonder if we're overestimating the Iraqi response to this.

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/archive...5340398387

Quote:I was surprised when I saw that the reaction of Iraqis to the subject of prisoners abuse by some American soldiers was not huge as we all expected to see, even it was milder than the one in other Arab countries and especially than that in the Arab media.

I mean about a month ago, we had considerable reactions and somewhat large demonstrations in response to the killing of Hamas leader, and in the mid of maniac reactions from Arab media and people, the absence of large demonstrations and outrage on the streets of Iraq becomes really strange and give rise to questions. Why the Iraqi people are not really upset with this issue?

Is it because of the firm and rapid response from the American officials to these terrible actions?

Or is it because the Iraqi people lack compassion with the majority of these prisoners?

Could it be that the Iraqi people and as a result of decades of torture, humiliation and executions, took these crimes less seriously than the rest of the world?

Or have the majority of Iraqis finally developed some trust in the coalition authorities and in the American army, to sense that these actions must be isolated and will be punished?

I can’t say I have the full answer but I guess it’s a combination of a little bit of all the above.

So says an Iraqi blogger, anyway. It's a good read.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them. -- Johann von Neumann
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#17
ty! lets hope he is right. (was a good idea to check the iraqi blogs)
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#18
S1

I just found that site. He's got links to other Iraqi bloggers as well, and I'm planning on checking them out.

Here's another great quote from the same guy:

Quote:The crime was a step backwards but the way it’s being dealt with is - in my opinion - a step forwards on the way to strengthen the trust between the coalition and the Iraqis because this will help putting an end to many of the conspiracy theories that many Iraqis still belive in and this will tell Iraqis that the Americans are not hiding facts about their soldiers behavior here and once they feel that something wrong is happening they will move to correct it.

He also says, on the post for today, that he's been checking the BBC Arabic site:

Quote:As usual, the comments from Iraqis-in general-contradicted those from other Arab countries, especially Palestine, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

A quote from an Iraqi who commented at BBC Arabic:

Reemon A'adel Sami Wrote:I think that president Bush was honest in what he said. Those abuses do not represent the American people. As a matter of fact, we can find cruel men with no morals in any country; that's why we should not judge a whole nation for the violations of a small group of people and I'm sure that these will get the punishment they deserve. Here I'd like to direct my question to the Arabic media: "Where were you when Saddam mass-executed my people and used all kinds of torture against us?"

It seems they're not the sheep that some would have us believe.
In mathematics, you don't understand things. You just get used to them. -- Johann von Neumann
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#19
My preferred Iraqi blogger is Zeyad.

His take is less optimistic:

Quote:They may be just a few soldiers, it may be an isolated case, but what's the difference? The effect has been done, and the Hearts and Minds campaign is a joke that isn't funny any more.

(more on his site, see link above)
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


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#20
LOL, I suppose that means our approval rating among Arabs has dropped by half. From 4% to 2%
"I detest the man who hides one thing in the depths of his heart and speaks forth another"
-Homer
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