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Belarus Presidential Candidate Flees to Lithuania
#1
This time it seems that Lukashenko will have to step down under the pressure of protests.

Putin promises to send tanks to crush protesters.  Spiteful

Lukashenko already hears NATO tanks rolling toward the Belarussian border.

Opposition set up an opposition council. I don't know exactly what they mean by this.

Meet Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.Presidential Candidate and whife of jailed Presidential Candidate. Currently in exile in Lithuania.
[Image: 200810065321-svetlana-tikhanovskaya-0810-large-169.jpg]

On historical ground, Belarus should be part of Lithuania.
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#2
(08-18-2020, 05:15 PM)Fredledingue Wrote:
Putin promises to send tanks to crush protesters.  Spiteful

Did he really?  Oh that's right, its already an established fact, that Russia still rules the Eastern part of Europe.  Wouldn't it be interesting if the protesters had come up with lots and lots of anti-tank rounds?  Shock
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#3
JohnL, Yes: Putin immediately announced that he would sent military aid if necessary to protect Belarus from foreign interference.
Sorry for not providing a link.

I don't think it would turn like Ukraine because protesters don't demand independence from Russia. Just a new, better leader.
From what I hear, here, Belarus is a mess.
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#4
(08-19-2020, 06:58 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: From what I hear, here, Belarus is a mess.

Were it not a mess, I would be greatly surprised. Spiteful
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#5
Lukashenko decided to stay.
Belarus launches criminal case against new opposition body
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#6
Belqrus protests not over yet

reuters Wrote:In tandem with the protests, anonymous hackers leaked the personal data of 1,000 police officers in retaliation for a crackdown in which thousands of people have been detained,

Olga Suitecase, spokeswoman for the Ministry of Internal Affairs Wrote:The forces, means and technologies at the disposal of the internal affairs bodies make it possible to identify and prosecute the overwhelming majority of those guilty of leaking personal data on the Internet
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#7
(09-20-2020, 03:20 PM)Fredledingue Wrote:
Belqrus protests not over yet


reuters Wrote:
In tandem with the protests, anonymous hackers leaked the personal data of 1,000 police officers in retaliation for a crackdown in which thousands of people have been detained,


Olga Suitecase, spokeswoman for the Ministry of Internal Affairs Wrote:
The forces, means and technologies at the disposal of the internal affairs bodies make it possible to identify and prosecute the overwhelming majority of those guilty of leaking personal data on the Internet

Belqrus is a Russian ally and will not change for some time.  I think it is Russia's staunchest ally, if I am correct. 

Quote:
Russia sees Belarus as a strategic buffer state against the EU and NATO, and has accused the United States of fomenting revolution in its neighbour.

Moscow agreed to give a $1.5 billion loan to prop up Lukashenko’s government following a meeting between him and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Belarus will channel about $330 million of its new loan to cover its outstanding debt to Russian gas giant Gazprom GAZP.MM, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was quoted by TASS as saying.*
*In other words, when Belarus fails to pay the loan, Russia can come in and own it, "lock-stock-and-barrel".  Spiteful

Russian paranoia is the greatest obstacle to all this.  I don't know how anyone is ever going to get it to go away.  Its inherit within their genetic system.  Perhaps they should construct a Huge Wall to keep foreign lies/liers out of their territory.  Spiteful
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#8
No need to be hysterical here, paranoia is only applicable to the sodomite reaction to the events.

Simply Trump tried and failed once again, and is having trouble taking no for an answer. I find this odd that after so many failures he cannot take another one with a grace, but heck... no one is perfect.

Yes, the loan is partially refinancing of the previous loans, so what?

Quote:In other words, when Belarus fails to pay the loan, Russia can come in and own it, "lock-stock-and-barrel".

Absolutely wrong way to phrase it, loan is really to support the elected government.

But also it is true that Belarus is now rapidly getting much closer to both Russia and China. Not waiting for any WHEN. And for that we can thank Mr.Trump.
Sodomia Delenda Est

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#9
(09-20-2020, 07:54 PM)mv Wrote: No need to be hysterical here, paranoia is only applicable to the sodomite reaction to the events.

As my UofMaryland Russian History professor once stated, "The Russian People, as a whole, are the most paranoid people in the world."  After the many many invasions throughout history, from East and West, and the people's treatment from their rulers, it is easy to see why.  Oh, I forgot Turkey,...from the south too.
No country, in the world, has gone through so much upheaval, wars, invasions, and mistreatment from their rulers.  Having been born and raised over there, perhaps you might step back, and look at things from a more impartial POV.

I'm not trying to be critical here, just stating facts.  I know my Dad and I were over there for a short time, but an outsider could see this in spades from the way the citizenry went through their daily lives.  Personally, I have a great deal of sympathy for the Russians, after what they have had to endure over the centuries.  Centuries of abject serfdom, and abuses are not easily swept under the rug.

  I suspect China will be following suite in the near future, once they no longer need them.
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#10
Your UofMaryland guy seems to be a bit schizophrenic in his assessment: knowing history and being able to apply it to the current events is wisdom and not paranoia.

(But then of course, it is no brainer to see Genghis Khan---Uncle Adolph--Uncle Donald parallels.)

However, bringing in Russia at this point is incorrect : the Trump coup attempt was resolved by the Belarus security forces, Russian assistance was not needed.

The troubling moment is that yet again Trump is playing with fire, even a minor US invasion would have quickly escalated.

As for China : expect Chinese investments in Belarus to increase, far beyond the loan given by Putin.
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#11
I am currently reading the book "Legacy of Ashes", quite interesting. These types of popular revolts / color revolutions are a common CIA tactic. But they normally fail.

Trump might not be aware though, they tend to hide a lot of from the president.
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#12
(09-21-2020, 02:20 PM)SNK Wrote: I am currently reading the book "Legacy of Ashes", quite interesting. These types of popular revolts / color revolutions are a common CIA tactic. But they normally fail.

Trump might not be aware though, they tend to hide a lot of from the president.
Cheers, been long time.

Not just CIA, in the Belarus case it seems to be another outfit, USAID.

Color revolutions (managed from abroad) were very successful initially, now the targeted governments learned how to deal with them better,  US is much weaker, so failing did become normal.

As for Trump:

It is fully possible he was not aware of this; it is even possible that having a crisis with Russia was a design to harm Trump.    But as commander-in-chief he remains fully responsible.
Sodomia Delenda Est

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#13
JohnL Wrote:The Russian People, as a whole, are the most paranoid people in the world.
True. This paranaoia originated in the police and KGB culture, and as a reaction the population became paranoiac for everything because they have been under terror for so many years.
They are also huge mythomaniacs.

This paranoia makes trade with Russia very difficult. They think that if you want to make business, it means that you try to steal or hide something. They can't understand that we just want to sell with a profit.

JohnL Wrote:Belqrus is a Russian ally and will not change for some time.
mv Wrote:But also it is true that Belarus is now rapidly getting much closer to both Russia and China.

It's more than an ally of Russia: It's part of Putin's Empire. I think they call it the CIS. In short, it's almost part of Russia but Lukashenko opposed the anexion offered by Putin.

So I don;t see how Belorussian could come even closer to Russia since it's already embeded.

It's also true in the physical reality. When you cross from the EU, even from countries which were part of the USSR, it doesn't matter anymore today, to Belorussia, you go from one universe to another. The change is radical. In other words, you entered "Russia". But when you vtoss from Belorussia to Russia, you don;t notice any difference. Only the currency has changed.

JohnL Wrote:Perhaps they should construct a Huge Wall to keep foreign lies/liers out of their territory.
That's already the case. There is no huge wall, just a barbed wire fence, because nobody is interrested to go there illegally. And russians (which include belorussians) can get a visa for Europe quite easily. Not very easily but if they fill the application correctly they get one.

mv Wrote:Simply Trump tried and failed once again, and is having trouble taking no for an answer. I find this odd that after so many failures he cannot take another one with a grace,..

In fact Trump, who did nothing, as usual, would have claimed it as one of his great achievement had the revolution succeeded. Since it didn't he doesn't speak about it.
Maybe Pelosi or Biden Junior is more involved.

The reality is that the people are really fed up with Lukashenko and his soviet style economy.
Just yesterday about 100 000 people took the streets across the country.
It's not in the articles. I heard it on the local radio.

Lithuanians are also demonstrating in the streets of Lithuania in support to their Belorussian brothers.
My daughter took part. LOL.

Of course what happens in Belorussia would have been impossible without some help from The CIA (let's call it like this even if the CIA is not involved).
IMO the EU is more involved than the US.

I don't think Trump knew or even know at present, that a country called Belarus exists. But he may have heard that his services are supporting something pro-west in the vodka region.

mv Wrote:But as commander-in-chief he remains fully responsible.
Yes. But he has immunity no matter what. So what a responsability is it, if he can't be impeached for his action?
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#14
Quote:Of course what happens in Belorussia would have been impossible without some help from The CIA (let's call it like this even if the CIA is not involved).
IMO the EU is more involved than the US.

Well, if you want to be precise, Polish intel is very involved, EU as a whole -- not really. But without an OK from Trump, the Poles would have not dared, and the financing likely mostly US'.

Quote:Maybe Pelosi or Biden Junior is more involved.

I think they are busy elsewhere... but if Biden Jr. can steal in the Ukraine, why cannot Trump Jr. dream of the same in Belarus? S6

Quote:That's already the case. There is no huge wall, just a barbed wire fence, because nobody is interrested to go there illegally.

My understanding is that the borders with Poland and Lithuania are closed now, the border with Ukraine is semi-closed.

Quote:So I don;t see how Belorussian could come even closer to Russia since it's already embeded.

No, I suspect we will hear about further integration before long. The big difference between Belarus and Russia is in the economics and social support system: Belarus largely retains socialism of the USSR type, Russia is capitalist. State-owned enterprises in Belarus are not efficient. And how to end them without either damaging them OR unleashing a wave of privatization thefts is not so obvious. Besides, Lukashenko has -- imho, legitimate -- desire to have the ownership of these enterprises remain in Belarus rather than being swallowed by much richer Russian (or even Chinese!) companies.
Sodomia Delenda Est

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#15
(09-21-2020, 06:19 PM)mv Wrote: ...The big difference between Belarus and Russia is in the economics and social support system: Belarus largely retains socialism of the USSR type, Russia is capitalist.  State-owned enterprises in Belarus are not efficient.  And how to end them without either damaging them OR unleashing a wave of privatization thefts is not so obvious.  Besides, Lukashenko has -- imho, legitimate -- desire to have the ownership of these enterprises remain in Belarus rather than being swallowed by much richer Russian (or even Chinese!) companies.

The Belarus information is interesting, but why make it another Trump hit piece?
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#16
Because of the US involvement Trump is ultimately responsible -- even if the coup attempt was meant to damage him.

I'll add a couple more things about Belarus:

Right now Lukashenko -- and Putin too -- owe Trump for what happened. Trump resolved a 20-year-long stalemate situation which would have otherwise ended badly, not now, but in 1-2 election cycles.

Belarus is a mix of good and no so good: social guarantees remaining from the USSR times (I _think_ medicine, education are still free) and absence of oligarchs (whom Putin had to deal with and who are still running the show in a number of post-Soviet states), almost no crime ... but to offset this, lower living standards and absence of perspectives. The latter is of course more of a concern for younger professionals... if they have real skills they end up in Russia, otherwise they may show up on the streets -- as we see now. But this is only a smaller part of the population, majority still want social guarantees more. (cf. BLM in the US).

Lukashenko initially was elected on a platform of reintegration -- but he is still running on this same program rather than acting on it -- and one just cannot do this forever. It seems the recent events were a warning he badly needed -- because otherwise he would have faced a general unhappiness and opposition before long, not just a few foreign agents.

It is said that Lukashenko believed that he was supposed to be The President of the join state -- after El'zin -- and of course the place is firmly occupied by Putin .. with Lukashenko hoping for an opportunity for now more than twenty years. (Not the only factor, of course, but yes, there is personal angle).

So.... we will see what happens, but I suspect Putin will make (or already made) some kind of super-nice-retirement offer. Perhaps indeed being The President of the combined state (Germany and Israel have presidents too... do you know their names?). Or the position of the Agriculture Minister (with the extra bonus of being a Deputy PM).... I'm not making fun of Lukash here, it is his background and he can likely do the job as well as anyone else.

Regardless, it is really time for him to go, and he can still do this with honor.

Something like this.

We'll see within months.
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#17
mv Wrote:But without an OK from Trump, the Poles would have not dared, and the financing likely mostly US'.
The OK maybe. But financing? The poles have enough money to fund the Beloraus Revolution.
It doesn;t cost much. Everything is cheap there.

Poland is not the only east european country involved. Other east european countries are also. They don;t need any money from the US. (All the untraceable banknotes have been used in Iraq and Iran anyway)

The EU or other EU countries are probably not financing, thought France and Germany could have a minimal involvement, but they are supporting morally.
It's of course in the interest of the EU that Belorus join the European economic zone but they are aware that Putin won;t let that happen without bloodshed.
They are also aware that even if Putin would agree, the mentalities are not ready. They have seen that in Ukraine.

mv Wrote:My understanding is that the borders with Poland and Lithuania are closed now
I didn't go there and didn't hear about that but it's possible they close the border because of the unrest but using the COVID as an official reason.

mv Wrote:the border with Ukraine is semi-closed.
The borders with Ukraine, Belarus and Russia have always been semi-closed. The waiting line is 8 to 12 hours for cars and 24 to 48 hours for trucks. And it has been so for the last 25 years without any evolution.
If you go by train or by plane it's faster.

mv Wrote:The big difference between Belarus and Russia is in the economics and social support system: Belarus largely retains socialism of the USSR type, Russia is capitalist.

Exact. But more important than the system, is the mentalities. And they are the same: A business in Belarus or in Russia must be a multi billion dollars venture with support of the government. They don't have any idea that small businesses can be created by individuals, except a small grocery store.
Russia is capitalist but is not business friendly. Belarus is soviet style but is not worse for business than Russia. It's just that they don't have any business to do. It's the province overthere.
Belarus and Ukraine could easily be the China of Europe with cheap labor. But they are unable to do that because their governments would have to admit things they can't admit.

The main difference between the two is that Russia has oil and gaz.
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#18
Mostly but not entirely agree.

Quote:The OK maybe. But financing? The poles have enough money to fund the Beloraus Revolution.
It doesn;t cost much. Everything is cheap there.

Poland is not the only east european country involved. Other east european countries are also. They don;t need any money from the US. (All the untraceable banknotes have been used in Iraq and Iran anyway)

The OK from Trump (or his enemies inside the US -- but this a minor difference) is certain.

Actually while inside Belarus things are cheap (and one can hire a housewife to run for president for perhaps the cost of a dinner or silk underwear) the riot managers outside out Belarus need to be paid real money.

Foreign involvement :

US, UK, Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine. Last two are less significant.

--

Border closing: no, it is not related to COVID, it is new. And I hear that as of today there is a ban on import of Polish agriculture products as well, this is significant. The border with Latvia asaik is open (but surely can be shut down too).

--

Quote:Exact. But more important than the system, is the mentalities. And they are the same: A business in Belarus or in Russia must be a multi billion dollars venture with support of the government.

Former state enterprises -- including the medium size -- in Russia are private, many operate as independent businesses. Large ones -- of course, government-supported, but this is also the case in the US, France, China,... etc. Boeing is not a private company but an arm of the US state, so is Gasprom. France and Italy argue over Libya because their oil companies have divergent interests. Etc.

Belarus is different, USSR-time state factories are simply still state-owned. With the legacy inefficiency typical of central planning.

Mentality -- of course, similar, there is little difference between Russian and Byelorussians, and there is no Galicia factor as in the Ukraine.

Actually I don't see this as important. There is no mentality difference between Russia and most of Ukraine either, I work(ed) with people in all three countries now and know S6 ..., the bigger factor is national oligarchs. They did not evolve in Belarus. They did evolve in Russia but were put under control eventually. They are in power in the Ukraine -- and their interests, like always with oligarchs -- are their own. (And they are very powerful in the US too -- 9 out 10 of the richest people in the US is a major Biden donor, with a neat way to bypass US campaign finance laws).
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#19
mv Wrote:Foreign involvement :
US, UK, Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine. Last two are less significant.
I don't think any is significant. The support is political.
The locals are themselves rising against Lu-Cash & co. The only thing they need is for the opposition leaders to have physical support from a western entity. To assure protection and exile when needed. Actually the country offering this support is Lithuania. It doens't cost much to Lithuania to host the housewhife.

I didn't see where UK is involved. Maybe as a middleman between the Belorus opposition and the US. For such a small nusiness, americans probably don't bother to answer the phone themselves.

mv Wrote:Actually while inside Belarus things are cheap (and one can hire a housewife to run for president for perhaps the cost of a dinner or silk underwear) the riot managers outside out Belarus need to be paid real money.
There is no riot managers outside Belorus. And they don't need any. Poeple rise up spontaneousely.
But they have unofficial intermediaries, contacts...

When you see how much money the oligarchs have, each of them owns something like 10x the Belarus GDP.
When they can pay Hunter Biden several millions, these are sums not seen in Bialorussia.
Their only industry is one obsolete tractor factory.
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#20
UK : usually involved in things like this (main US proxy). In the specific case of Belarus, it is the Navalny case, there seem to be British fingerprints on it. (And Navalny case is synced with Belarus).

Quote:There is no riot managers outside Belorus. And they don't need any. Poeple rise up spontaneousely.
But they have unofficial intermediaries, contacts...

Someone does have to tell the rioters when, where, how.

(Same thing as with the BLM rioters in the US -- clearly there is an organization and someone is giving travel money. The diff is that in the US it is an internal enemy.)

The fact that in Belarus the opposition seems to have no noticeable figures, even low level, among them, makes one think that nearly all activities coordinated by pros who are not local.

As for "spontaneous" .. lol... and the US riots are also spontaneous? Or the Russian riots in Feb of 1917?

Spontaneous records take an effort to organize.

Quote:Their only industry is one obsolete tractor factory.

Not quite. They have still well-functioning ex-Sov factories, they have agriculture, they have decent IT industry now too (Lukashenko taxes them at 1% of the profit ... no wonder)
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