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Friedman's [i]The Next 100 Years[/i].
#1
I was just rereading Friedman's prophesies, and think that in the short time since he wrote it, that he's shooting blanks.

Quote:So long as the Muslims are fighting each other, the United States has won its war.


The one thing that is still true that he wrote was the idea that the old fulcrum was the Atlantic, and the idea that whoever controls the trade there rules the world. Then he said how the technology that made the Pacific another trade route reinforced the position of the USA having two de facto causes for world rule.

It sure looks like ISIS and the Islamic hordes flooding Europe upended much of his predictions.
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#2
Just looking out 100 years, it would take an internal catastrophe probably for the USA to stop being the global hegemon.
I think it's a reasonable idea that we are soon returning to the cold war paradigm where we will not have a freebie like we have since 1990 and that's going to be good for the USA and the world. Stops the silly adventurism we've felt free to entertain, saves lives, reduces chaos, saves money for other pursuits.

China is rapidly becoming assertive, investing all over the world w/o the hostility the USA engenders outside Asia , it is impossible to be the big dog w/o irking lots of folks, no one can do that.



I predict Russia and China align in some respects. India hangs with Russia, they've always had an affinity for each other. China and India remain wary of each other, Japan wary of China.

Turkey may or may not become a formal caliphate/empire informally recognized by the international community, Friedman said the west wanted that. The west may have less say than we think in that decision, it is hard for me to imagine Sunni jihadis lining up with Turkey, it just isn't radical enough for that crew.
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#3
A few of Friedman's prognostications seem valid. China is schizophrenic, the coast is modern and courting Free Enterprise, but it cyclically confronts the rural internal center that is exactly the opposite. China can't rule itself, so it would be hard to rule outside its borders.

The main change is in Europe that is being overrun by Islamic hordes, worse than before the Crusades. Any coalitions that occur there is totally up for grabs.
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#4
China is just like the USA in 1900. They have learned the beauty of capitalism for creating wealth and they are suffering the worst evils of capitalism. We did exactly the same things they are. Made the same errors.

Over time, just like it took us a lot of time, they will develop restrictions on their capitalists, protections for workers, protections for the environment and their conservatives will fight every single step like here.

The people in the non coastal areas are migrating to the coasts pretty rapidly.
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#5
Except for the U.S., there were no really bad economic outcomes. It was really the bureaucrats that screwed up things and messed up Free Enterprise with a Mixed Economy. China is keeping a hard control on the economy from the get-go.
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