Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Oil price impact.
#41
Believe what you want mv, but virtually nobody really foresaw the U.S. emerging as as a potential net exporter of crude over the last six-eight-ten years or so ... it's pushed worldwide excess production to over 2 million bbls per day! Our economic and political structures still haven't adjusted to it ... there are archaic laws still on the books that essentially make most exports illegal because of the and ME instability and embargo fears of the past ... these have largely been rendered effectively irrelevant by recent developments. And yes, Obama and the 'rats have the industry working with one arm tired behind it's back. The Administration is doing it's best to thwart production and keep the '70s era anti-export laws intact ... and essentially ALL oil development is on private land, so there is no intrinsic government incentive to increase 'royalties' and revenue on oil production from public resources ... because there are virtually none to be had (however, massive reserves ... which are not on the table ... yet). Obama only has another two years left in office ... what then? As it is, our production has reached effective parity with Saudi Arabia and Russia and continues to increase ... in the course of a few years. The tiny gaps are filled by imports are mostly filled by Canada. The net beneficiaries of the current situation are Russia's pals in China ... why not just be happy for them mv?

As you have mentioned, Putin has massive foreign currency reserves and gold enough to outlast a years long oil price war. Such a minimal risk. Why even discuss it? And why would the Sauds be so foolish as to practically give away their one and only resource? The time period that you cite for 'manipulation' (early 2000s) coincides almost perfectly with the Putin era of milk and honey in Russia. Are you saying that the U.S. secretly facilitated Putin's rise to saintly political status? I knew he and Bush were buddies, but this is a very interesting revelation.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#42
Firstly, I did not say I believe this, only that this is one of the theories. But ok, let me rebut you a bit:

1. That the US has a potential for shale boom was well known in 2003, I've seen articles, and I remember discussions that the rise of prices at that time is exactly what is needed to jump start shale development... so I would not exclude Bush admin seeing this too.

2.
Quote:And why would the Sauds be so foolish as to practically give away their one and only resource?
Saudis are not likely to follow US lead at this time anyway, but the Spydell's thesis is that the Saudi's have nothing to do with this. Translate the article and see.
(But I would not exclude that the Saudis actually do not mind lower price -- because of the side effect of wiping out the US shale industry).

3. As to why do this if this is not going to overthrow Putin or even much impact what he does? Spydell's thesis is that the US is using every tool in its disposal short of full scale war to prevent Pax Americana from ending. At this time the main challenge is from Russia, not China... China will be dealt with later.

(IMO, Russia actually has a better chance of stopping Sodomia than China, for a number of reasons... one is that China is way more vulnerable to a full-scale nuclear attack from the US, and this is likely part of the US plan -- if Putin is neutralized first.)

4. The drastic reduction in US drilling will have an effect on the total output, in 2-3 months per this article. This is the nature of shale oil business... always must drill new ones.
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
#43
(12-06-2014, 03:46 PM)mv Wrote: 4. The drastic reduction in US drilling will have an effect on the total output, in 2-3 months per this article. This is the nature of shale oil business... always must drill new ones.

If it keeps filling up from below, they can reuse the same holes. And once they discover the place where the flow is moving upward, they will have hit the jackpot. S22
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

Reply
#44
Too many unknowns... filling from below -- is this ever true for shale oil? (I suspect not).
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
#45
(12-06-2014, 03:46 PM)mv Wrote: (IMO, Russia actually has a better chance of stopping Sodomia than China, for a number of reasons... one is that China is way more vulnerable to a full-scale nuclear attack from the US, and this is likely part of the US plan -- if Putin is neutralized first.)

Stopping what exactly? We're in the process of retracting our claws all over the world. There's a half-hearted attempt to engage ISIS, but I don't think anyone really expects much in the way of results from Obama's foreign policy.

mv Wrote:At this time the main challenge is from Russia, not China... China will be dealt with later.

Challenge to who?? The EU?? Does anybody really think that a nation with an economy the size of Spain or Italy is really going to threaten Europe en toto?? There is the capability to make trouble for various neighbors like Ukraine ... but seriously ... a threat? Certainly not an economic one. We've watched North Korea for decades crawl up it's own arse ... and we'll probably watch Russia for decades more ... scary rabid Bear ... good thing there is an ocean between us.

And who is going to 'deal' with China? They are our largest creditor ... our monetary system would probably collapse without their help ... and Putin covets them as his future creditor and major customer as well. Why would anyone want to piss in that well? P.T. Barnum said there's a sucker born every minute. And this occurs an order of magnitude more frequently in China. The planet has a large but finite supply of chumps. Destroying them would be a waste of valuable resources.

Back to oil (and natural gas) ... beyond all the carping about a price war, it will be interesting to see how the actual overall production numbers shake out for 2014 ... and beyond ...

[Image: top-3.gif]
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#46
(12-06-2014, 04:30 PM)mv Wrote: Too many unknowns... filling from below -- is this ever true for shale oil? (I suspect not).

Its all coming up from the hot mantle. Hey, Russians first started all this several decades ago. And they are almost certainly spot on. S22

Screw the Fossil Fuel theory. S18
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

Reply
#47
JohnL Wrote:Its all coming up from the hot mantle.

This well may be true, but think this through: coming from the below into hollow areas is one thing, sipping into a rock is another. Maybe it is also possible and happening, but surely it would take MUCH slower, this is why I said "unknown".

mr_yak Wrote:Challenge to who?? The EU?? Does anybody really think that a nation with an economy the size of Spain or Italy is really going to threaten Europe en toto?? There is the capability to make trouble for various neighbors like Ukraine ... but seriously ... a threat? Certainly not an economic one.

Challenge to the "New World Order".... only the US is allowed to change governments or borders. Kosovo is ok, Crimea is not, and thus a hysterical reaction. And as long as Russia exists and acts independently there will be problems controlling EU puppets, some of them may Gah act in their own interests too.

But there is another, bigger factor: US (and entire G7) fraction of world economy is shrinking noticeably, right now "the other G7" part is larger. Allowed to continue this will eventually translate into political power. Thus, the US doctrine is that "the other G7" needs to be either controlled or destroyed altogether. And Chinese growth is a problem even by itself.
And anyway, what do you expect from a mafia government to do if it cannot pay off its creditors? -- here is your answer.
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
#48
(12-06-2014, 06:41 PM)mv Wrote:
JohnL Wrote:Its all coming up from the hot mantle.

This well may be true, but think this through: coming from the below into hollow areas is one thing, sipping into a rock is another. Maybe it is also possible and happening, but surely it would take MUCH slower, this is why I said "unknown".

Ok, look Michael. There is a perfectly good reason why petroleum winds up saturating shale, rather than other rocks. Shale is a Sedimentary rock, which is formed by things such as mud. That's why its nickname is "mud rock". Because water was a sizable portion of the mix, and when the water moved on to greener pastures, what was left was a highly porous, and flaky, rock that acted as a sponge later on to all that black gold.

[Image: prd_018981.jpg]

Now, think of this as capillaries, the end of the road so to speak. But to get there, the hydrocarbons had to move up a super-highway at first, and then branching out into smaller highways, as the hydrocarbons worked their way upward, away from all that high temperature, and high pressure.

Now, if you can find locations, where the smaller hydrocarbon highways bring all the goods, it is possible to tap into that highway and also reap the rewards as the stuff moves upward. Find the superhighways, and you are really in the Green.

Now, do you have a better idea as to why abiotic makes so much sense? And why it is also cost effective and doable?

Damn, but I really love geology. I certainly did miss my calling in life, and its too late to to change things now. S11
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

Reply
#49
No problem with this idea and the analogy with capillaries, the question is the rate of filling. It may be very low in most cases (even known conventional oil "refills" are slow).
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
#50
JL Wrote:If it keeps filling up from below, they can reuse the same holes. And once they discover the place where the flow is moving upward, they will have hit the jackpot.

It doesn't work like that. Oil wells run dry frequently and new wells have to be drilled deeper and deeper.

That's the reality no matter the origin of the oil. Quantities are finite unless you find new deposits.
That you believe in goelogical oil or in fossile oil doesn't change the reality at Earth's surface.

Any link that abiotic oil has been used commercialy?
Refining this oil would use a different process than refining fossile oil...

But ok, there is another thread for this debate...

What I mean is that every year which passes by, oil is a little bit more difficult to extract, not easier. And that's why oil prices will rebound.

(12-06-2014, 12:48 PM)mr_yak Wrote:
(12-06-2014, 12:23 PM)mv Wrote:
Quote:Eventually the Saudis and others are going to have to cave and quit playing their games.

We actually still do not know what is going on. There are three theories out:

1. Saudis et al are acting against the US shale oil.
2. The US is acting against Russia (unlikely variation: US and Saudis are against Russia)
3. The current trend is natural due to slower economy and oversupply.

There is evidence both for 1. and for 2.

How about the actual reason that they have stated? In the face of dramatic production expansion that has literally shocked the world, they want to keep their existing customers ... ironically including a dwindling number of U.S. clients.

2. Why exactly would you peg this as an action specifically against Russia? I think you have argued here that Russia has plenty of margin ... and that a falling ruble widens the gap even more ... and deals with China that further buffer and reduce the risk. The imminent casualties here are countries like Venezuela and Iran.

1. Doesn't seem like a sound long term strategy. Their resources get sold at a pittance ... granted a pittance with one of the widest margins in the world, but selling your ONLY resource at yard sale prices?? Not smart. Regardless if shale development is curtailed for a while, the oil will still remain in the ground, the technology is only going to evolve more and the price can only go up (eventually) ... actually that's not 'explicitly' true, the currencies used for purchase will perpetually debase.

3. See the comment above. Again, a 'shocking' and unexpected increase in production ... at a time when consumption is being depressed (by both accident and design). What's not to understand about a tightening oil market?

IMO, all 3.

1.The Saudis have said that their goal in not cutting production is to bankrupt US shales.
Long term it's not a good strategy but the Saudis hope that the effect will be quick and decisive. That's their mistake.

2. Of course as it acts also against Russia and Iran, the Saudis have one more reason not to cut production.
First Iran. Then Russia since we want to stop Putin in eastern Europe.

3. This state of fact was made possible by a slowly increasing supply and a stagnant economy.

... Maybe we could add points 4, 5 and 6 for the sake of re-stating the obvious?
Reply
#51
Fred Wrote:Any link that abiotic oil has been used commercialy?

But of course, lots of places sell it.... often under the name "snake oil". S6
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
#52
(12-06-2014, 07:46 PM)mv Wrote: No problem with this idea and the analogy with capillaries, the question is the rate of filling. It may be very low in most cases (even known conventional oil "refills" are slow).

Here is good reference for you. Now, I'm assuming you don't have a car in that G-d forsaken Hell hole where you currently reside. So, in the morning, go out on the street, find a cold car, and loosen the oil pan petcock. Note how cool/cold oil runs out of the drain hole.

Now, later at the end of the day, and when the owner returns home, do same thing , and note how oil drains out of the warm/hot engine. You should notice a huge difference.

Lets apply this lesson to oil. The refills are taking place near the earth's surface, and the ground temperature is just a little bit warm. However, the shale field is Waaay down there, as much as 5,000 feet, if I remember correctly. That's much closer to the mantle, which is Hot, Hot, Hot.

Now, 64 thousand dollar question: Which do you think will refill itself fastest? Remember, this pop quiz counts toward your final grade, so consider all of the possibilities, ok? S13

Ain't geology just wonderful?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

Reply
#53
(12-06-2014, 06:41 PM)mv Wrote: Challenge to the "New World Order".... only the US is allowed to change governments or borders. Kosovo is ok, Crimea is not, and thus a hysterical reaction. And as long as Russia exists and acts independently there will be problems controlling EU puppets, some of them may Gah act in their own interests too.

Maybe you missed it but we are backing out of world affairs. Sure we'll make a half-hearted effort to confront ISIS ... and we'll continue to pink mist various shitheads with killer robot planes ... but the U.S. is reducing it's world footprint. We are reducing our military spending almost as fast as Putin is increasing Russia's. Crimea IS a done deal. Ukraine is totally off the U.S. radar for now. The only news is that apparently a company is 'prepaying' for a Russian gas delivery. BFD. You're confusing grumbling with any sort of real resolve to confront. Europe is due for a large scale ground war, but the timing is crappy for U.S. intervention. Third time in a century?? No friggin' way!! We may lend lease some surplus hardware, but otherwise, turn on the popcorn machine ... we'll sit this one out and watch the show. We're tired of a decade and a half of war and half a decade of stagnation and Obama ... which actually sounds a bit redundant. Russia tends to destroy itself periodically ... it set a time record under the Soviet system. But a habit is a habit .... so they can have at it. Why would we chose to fight Putin when he's got nothing we want or need? We're already the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas ... why trifle with somebody in the #2 spot?
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#54
You two are trying to jerk my chain, ain't 'cha? S13
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

Reply
#55
(12-06-2014, 08:04 PM)mr_yak Wrote:
(12-06-2014, 06:41 PM)mv Wrote: Challenge to the "New World Order".... only the US is allowed to change governments or borders. Kosovo is ok, Crimea is not, and thus a hysterical reaction. And as long as Russia exists and acts independently there will be problems controlling EU puppets, some of them may Gah act in their own interests too.

Maybe you missed it but we are backing out of world affairs. Sure we'll make a half-hearted effort to confront ISIS ... and we'll continue to pink mist various shitheads ... but the U.S. is reducing it's world footprint. We are reducing our military spending almost as fast as Putin is increasing Russia's. Crimea IS a done deal. You're confusing grumbling with any sort of real resolve to confront. Europe is due for a large scale ground war, but the timing is crappy for U.S. intervention. Third time in a century?? No friggin' way!! We may lend lease some surplus hardware, but otherwise, turn on the popcorn machine ... we'll sit this one out and watch the show. We're tired of a decade and a half of war and half a decade of stagnation and Obama ... which actually sounds a bit redundant. Russia tends to destroy itself periodically ... it set a time record under the Soviet system. But a habit is a habit .... so they can have at it. Why would we chose to fight Putin when he's got nothing we want or need? We're already the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas ... why trifle with somebody in the #2 spot?

Damn, Jack, I couldn't have done any better with that one. Thanks for answering for me. S22
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

Reply
#56
(12-06-2014, 07:54 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: IMO, all 3.

1.The Saudis have said that their goal in not cutting production is to bankrupt US shales.
Long term it's not a good strategy but the Saudis hope that the effect will be quick and decisive. That's their mistake.

2. Of course as it acts also against Russia and Iran, the Saudis have one more reason not to cut production.
First Iran. Then Russia since we want to stop Putin in eastern Europe.

3. This state of fact was made possible by a slowly increasing supply and a stagnant economy.

... Maybe we could add points 4, 5 and 6 for the sake of re-stating the obvious?

1. The Saud's have said they want to keep their customers. There will be a shakeout of excessively leverage U.S. players ... that's not anywhere near 'bankrupting' U.S. shale.

2. Iran yes ... and maybe Russia in the role of Iranian benefactor ... but I doubt they give a warm bucket of spit about Eastern Europe. War requires oil. In that respect, it would be more logical to fan the flames.

3. Look at the chart above, the increase in supply was relatively quick by oil production standards. Virtually no one expected the U.S. to jump to the #1 position last year. Canada continues to develop it's resources. Mexico will bring another million barrels a day on line in another year or two ... and the world economy remains in the doldrums or shrinking. No need for 4,5,6 we can continue to re-state the obvious with only three digits.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#57
(12-06-2014, 08:06 PM)John L Wrote: You two are trying to jerk my chain, ain't 'cha? S13

What?? mv is arguing that the U.S. wants to start WWIII or IV or V or whatever ... with Russia. I'm saying the Wilsonians are long dead ... and the Greatest Generation is pretty much gone as well. Who in the current generation would fight such a war? The vets of Iraq and Afghanistan did a great and honorable job, but they are spent and exhausted. The country is ripe for a stretch of isolationism. The current resident of the White House will be out in two years. People want prosperity ... and with the right leadership we can have it on our own terms ... we have all the ingredients at hand. Screw the rest of the world. Why not? Are you arguing for some sort of Armageddon lite where we actually go toe to toe with Russia and or China? ... why?? ... for what? Why not stick to North and South America, keep our feet dry and stay off the other continents until the fires burn themselves out?

The thread is about oil ... the abundance ... the price and who produces it. We are #1 John. Why would we screw around and not take full advantage of that while we can?
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#58
mr_yak Wrote:Maybe you missed it but we are backing out of world affairs.

Where are you getting this idea?

The US military budget is still 0.5 trillion dollars, far the largest on the planet. The US is still fighting a number of undeclared wars and tries to undermine/overthrow a number of government. I'm lazy to give the lists, you are capable of doing this yourself, and it is NOT "backing out of world affairs" by far, it is continuing efforts to remodel the world.

And on top of it: there is an interesting parallel of current events to the events preceding to the US starting WWII, think this through. S6

Quote:Why would we chose to fight Putin when he's got nothing we want or need?

To preemptively destroy all possible competition, this is clearly stated in the "New American Century" bible.

And there is a 2nd parallel to WWII here: many people read Hitler and did not believe he actually means what he says. Ditto for the US.

Quote:Who in the current generation would fight such a war? The vets of Iraq and Afghanistan did a great and honorable job, but they are spent and exhausted. The country is ripe for a stretch of isolationism

Totally irrelevant. Again, parallel to WWII, the US was very isolationist in the 1930s, all it took is for FDR to arrange Pearl Harbor and a media hysterics. 9/11 created a wave of "patriotism" within days. Attitudes can be changed quickly.
Sodomia delenda est

Reply
#59
(12-07-2014, 12:44 AM)mv Wrote:
mr_yak Wrote:Maybe you missed it but we are backing out of world affairs.

Where are you getting this idea?

We are gutting our forces to the lowest level since before WWII ... and it's really beginning to hurt the folks we depend upon for our defense.

(12-07-2014, 12:44 AM)mv Wrote:
Quote:Who in the current generation would fight such a war? The vets of Iraq and Afghanistan did a great and honorable job, but they are spent and exhausted. The country is ripe for a stretch of isolationism

Totally irrelevant. Again, parallel to WWII, the US was very isolationist in the 1930s, all it took is for FDR to arrange Pearl Harbor and a media hysterics. 9/11 created a wave of "patriotism" within days. Attitudes can be changed quickly.

If you think Obama is another FDR ... or some sort of geo-strategic super genius, you are very much a minority in your thinking. Most doubt that he could find his ass with both hands on one of his good days. And even if he did locate it he would find Valerie Jarrett and Susan Rice's hands up there working him like a Ventriloquist. December 7th may come once a year, but there is only one Pearl Harbor or 9/11 allowed per generation ... a generation that has been ground down by a decade and a half of war footing. Again that footprint is going to shrink. Obama hates the military. He's on his forth SecDef in sex years! In WWII the U.S. could tolerate hundreds of thousands of casualties ... in Vietnam it could tolerate maybe 50K fatalities ... in the last war(s) 5K is too many. You can't seriously think we could be mustered by THIS president to any sort of meaningful action can you? Perhaps under another leader, but certainly not this one. He can barely see fit to send moth eaten blankets and expired rations to Ukraine. He's signaled over and over he wants to make nice with Putin ... removed missile defense systems lest he anger the bear ... you really consider this an 'aggressive' posture??
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply
#60
... RE: The Law of Unintended Consequences ...

Quote:Russia is thus likely to try to ramp up production using obsolete home-made methods and inferior domestic or Chinese rigs. "Russia will be precipitous in trying to respond to sanctions with an ‘import substitution’ campaign", Davletshin writes, adding that "the Russian oil field service sector has limited capacity to meet all new demand in the short term."

"We cannot avoid a comparison with oil production in the USSR in the 1980s," Davletshin concludes gloomily. According to Davletshin, the Soviet Union desperately needed more revenue from oil to fund the Afghanistan war, just as oil prices collapsed from $30-40 per barrel to below $15 in 1998.

As a result, the Soviet state oil industry went into overdrive to ramp up production - with disastrous results. One of the world's top 10 oil fields - Samatlor - was largely destroyed as Soviet engineers injected too much water in desperate attempts to boost output, causing premature water break throughs. "We see increased risks of similar mistakes being repeated in the near term given a situation when volumes become critical and access to western technologies is reduced," writes Davletshin.
"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
-- Henry Mencken
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)