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Turkey and the PKK
#1
I wonder if the PKK will obey Ocalan? Are the Kurds and Turks getting a long term deal done? One thing I'd wonder about is this, is Ocalan speaking as their leader or under duress?


http://www.euronews.com/2013/03/21/ocala...for-peace/
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#2
(03-21-2013, 06:22 PM)Palladin Wrote: I wonder if the PKK will obey Ocalan? Are the Kurds and Turks getting a long term deal done? One thing I'd wonder about is this, is Ocalan speaking as their leader or under duress?


http://www.euronews.com/2013/03/21/ocala...for-peace/
According to the Turkish Media there are many possible reasons for this deal. Some of them are:
Northern Iraqi Kurds have become Turkey's second biggest trading partner, and they want their natural gas and oil transported through Turkish pipelines to Europe. If there is terrorism activity in the region nobody would be interested in building pipelines.

PKK was the biggest drug cartel, smuggling drugs to Europe, finally Europeans started cracking down on them, recently there were many arrests in Europe of PKK drug kingpins.

As it become harder for PKK to attack Turkish military targets, they started attacking civilian targets, as a result of these attacks many Kurdish civilians started getting killed, and PKK started loosing sympathy of Kurdish people.

Will this truce hold, I don't know.
Terrorism is the only thing these 4,000 or so terrorist know, are they willing to give up their way of life?

Will some splinters groups emerge from PKK?

Many Turks are not happy with any deals with PKK, can these truce be sabotaged by either side?

So far it seems like all PKK leaders are still accepting Ocalan as their top leader, will these feelings continue?
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#3
Good stuff there, Kamil. I imagine some of the terrs will never repent, but, it seems if the economic and cultural life is improving, most will. As I understand it, Erdogan has been a better man to the Kurds than they were used to, more flexible with their desires, etc.

I am optimistic for both sides right now.
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#4
Quote:I am optimistic for both sides right now.

Stratfor is not.
Sodomia delenda est

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#5
They think the divide is more like the Pals and Jews in the WB?

Turkey can be fairly flexible if they want to, Israel doesn't have much wiggle room.
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#6
No, it is that there are temporary factors right now that move Turks and Kurds closer together... but they are temporary. For instance, Erdogan is very cooperative right now because he needs a huge voting majority for big constitutional changes in a couple of years.

Let me quote:
Quote:By this time, two major factors were adding urgency to the negotiations from the ruling party's standpoint. First, Turkey's aggressive support of Syrian rebels against the Alawite regime had helped create a power vacuum in the Syria's northeast, where a large Kurdish population resides. Out of this power vacuum, the Democratic Union Party, which has strong ties to the PKK in Turkey, emerged as the dominant Kurdish faction in Syria and began talking about declaring an autonomous region in Syria akin to the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. In addition to facing the prospect of a fledgling transnational Kurdish state that could reinvigorate a Kurdish claim for autonomy in Turkey, Ankara also faced a growing threat from the regimes in Syria and Iran, which could use the Kurdish militant threat against Turkey to pressure Ankara to back off its support for the Syrian rebels. Turkey's attempts to extend its influence beyond its borders rapidly again turned the country inward when it realized that regional unrest would only worsen Turkey's internal Kurdish conflict.

The second catalyst stems from the Justice and Development Party's political ambitions. Turkey will hold local and presidential elections in 2014, making 2013 an important campaign year. Erdogan, whose three-term stint as prime minister will expire in 2015, wants to rewrite Turkey's constitution to change the country's parliamentary system to a presidential one, thereby enabling him to run for president in 2014. The Justice and Development Party is divided over this initiative, but even if he had his party's full support, Erdogan would lack the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to amend the constitution. Instead, Erdogan is trying to cobble together enough support to put the revised constitution to a national referendum, and the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party might help secure enough votes if it approves of the progress made in peace talks with the PKK.

The summarize as
Quote:Though the level of public acceptance for these negotiations is unprecedented, the cease-fire announcement is only the first of many steps toward reaching an accord, and chances are high that the process could derail down the line.
Sodomia delenda est

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#7
Wonder what's in it for Ocalan? Just not getting executed?
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#8
(03-22-2013, 08:36 PM)Palladin Wrote: Wonder what's in it for Ocalan? Just not getting executed?
There is no death penalty in Turkey, but if he is released his life would be in serious danger.

Looks like if peace holds for a while, the Eastern Turkey will benefit greatly. Many companies have indicated they will make large investments in the Eastern Turkey.

Historically Turks and Kurds have gotten along OK. When Allied forces invaded Ottoman Empire 1914-1922, they promised free Kurdistan and Armenia, but Kurds fought alongside Turks to repel the invasion. Since 1922 Turkey had about 10 Prime Ministers (Prime Minister in Turkey is considered more important position than President) and 2 of them were Kurdish.
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#9
One of the big hindrance for peace will be the protection given to the drug lords by the PKK. Looks like without their protection Turkish police is having an easy time to find and capture the drug dealers. Drug lords in Europe are very unhappy with this outcome.
Dogs are posing with 3 tons of drugs they helped to capture in Diyarbakir just a few days ago.
[Image: 240520131651502964864.jpg]
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#10
Those dogs would get high if someone lit a fire to them bales!
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#11
I guess that's what the PKK gets for being underground so long: excess reliance on criminal occupations. That could be quite a problem with the current attempt of Turkey to make nice with the PKK.

Puzzling: Turkey is now going to restrict the times of the day that alcohol may be sold. Why is Turkey so upset about a tad of pot? Isn't that a traditional drug of relaxation in Islamic culture? Didn't the Prophet warn against alcohol?
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
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#12
(05-25-2013, 05:10 PM)jt Wrote: I guess that's what the PKK gets for being underground so long: excess reliance on criminal occupations. That could be quite a problem with the current attempt of Turkey to make nice with the PKK.

Puzzling: Turkey is now going to restrict the times of the day that alcohol may be sold. Why is Turkey so upset about a tad of pot? Isn't that a traditional drug of relaxation in Islamic culture? Didn't the Prophet warn against alcohol?
The Prophet did not warn against the dangers of drugs and cigarettes, because in that era those habits compared to alcohol were insignificant. However, all drugs have been illegal in the Ottoman Empire and Turkish Republic. Alcohol and cigarettes are legal in Turkey, however like you mentioned location and times of their sales are getting restricted. However doubling of alcohol and tobacco taxes are harder on people who use them in large quantities.

During Ottoman Empire Sultan Murad who was an alcoholic himself banned sale of alcohol in the Empire, but due to bootlegging the ban did not last long.
I'm afraid that with huge price increases in alcohol and tobacco products, people will start manufacturing their own products.
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#13
(05-26-2013, 01:17 AM)Kamil Wrote: I'm afraid that with huge price increases in alcohol and tobacco products, people will start manufacturing their own products.

Most likely you will see 'bootlegging' by enterprising individuals, as is the case of cigarettes in places like New York City. When there is a lot of money to be made from government stupidity, others will fill the void.

This always happens and governments never seem to learn. Then they have to increase the enforcement arm, in order to attempt to gain back the lost revenue. But the costs of added enforcement more than negates any crackdown. It never works until the confiscatory taxes are repealed. Sigh..........................
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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#14
Kamil,

I don't how it was when Mohammad actually lived, but, drug usage and cultivation is an ancient art in the ANE. I took some OT theology courses and when you do that, you study the neighboring cultures and religions and drug cultivation was 1 of the 4 cardinal "virtues" of most the pagan religions in that part of earth.

The other 3 were farming techniques, metallurgy, and how to sex up the ladies.
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#15
Palladin, the word assassin comes from hashishin, the one who consume hashish. They were Ismaelites who drank or smoke this drug for spiritual elevation and, historians think, also before commiting suicide attack or a murder were they were sure to be caught on the spot and tortured and killed.
But they banned alcohol and a sect member consuming it was punished by death.

I can't but make the comparision with the suicide bombers today and all of those who fight in hopeless wars.

Back to the topic: Both Turks and Kurds see a common interrest in peace.

There is the Syrian conflict, the Kurdish oil and Iran.

The Kurds can't afford a war where they are against everybody and Turkey is still the best candidate for an alliance. In Iraq they are at daggers out with teh sunnites and the shia central governement, in Iran they are considered terrorists and in Syria, the same.

Continuing to fight against Turkey while Syria is on fire, Iraq sees suicide bombings daily and Iran going nuclear would be very stupid.
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#16
About Assassin Order from: Wiki

Quote:The Assassin Order, also known at various times as the Assassin Brotherhood; Liberalis Circulum (Circle of Liberals), during the Roman Republic and Empire;[6] or Hashshashin, during the High Middle Ages, was an organized order of assassins and sworn enemies of the Templars, against whom they fought a continuous, recondite war throughout the entirety of recorded human history.

Whereas the Templars sought the power to save humanity from itself by controlling free will, the Assassin Order fought to ensure the survival of free will, as it allowed for the progression of new ideas and the growth of individuality.

The Assassins, if not the Order itself, had existed since at least 456 BCE, throughout the Roman Empire, the Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Industrial Revolution and into the Modern era.

As far as consuming alcohol:
About 15 to 20% of Turkish population follow Alewi faith which is mixture of old Turkic Pagan religion and Islam, and drinking wine is part of their ritual.
The rest of the Turkish Moslems belong to the Hanefi School of Sunni Islam. According to Hanefi School drinking alcohol is not a big sin as long as it is not made from grapes. However, going drunk to a mosque is considered sin. Central Asian Turkics also belong to the Hanefi School of Sunni Islam.
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#17
Incredible! Muslims outside Turkey, and some insde too, must not understand what the hell the Turks are doing....
Protest in support of ANOTHER ethnic group.

Why, in the mind of a muslim you would want to support kurds if you are not one of them? This must be against all rules of moral and principles for them.
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#18
Fred,

They support the Kurds in this case because the dead Kurdish protestor was protesting Erdogan. He wasn't protesting for Kurd rights, just against Erdogan's Islamist governance.
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#19
Palladinm how was he defined as a Kurd if he just protested againt the president and not for Kurd's right? heh? + Those Kurds protested against the building of an police/army outpost in their village... I don't think it was specific to Erdogan. The only similarity with the Istambul protest is that they protested against something to be build.
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#20
Here's the latest to cause further dissent within Turkey itself.

Video footage emerges showing dead body being dragged behind police vehicle

Here's the video that was taken by Turks and redistributed around the internet. You just can't fix Stupid.



___________________________________________________________________________________________________
"INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - David Horowitz

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