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Syria's WMD
#61
Those reasons on the list were not haphazard "whatifs." They were the actual reasons cited in news stories and official communications by the various branches of government. ...Objective or subjective, they were the stated facts used to inform the public. The doctorate thesis had all the numbers and percentages of input examined. The point made in my post was that the reasons given then are remembered differently today.

The DPRK, of course, has always held our ally, South Korea, hostage with the treat of invasion or nukes. The difference between a nation that has nukes and one that may get nukes in the future is why one is treated differently than another.

Remember also, it was proved that Iraq did have the programs (and reference strains for biological WMD), themselves, hidden away, as well as the stockpiles removed - so that after hostilities had ended, they could quickly re-institute their WMD. Some could be ramped up in less than two weeks, while others would take longer. Dirty bombs can be made fairly rapidly. Nukes would need materiel from North Korea or elsewhere, to skip the years of development many Polyannas use as a palliative safety factor.

The 1986 movie. The Manhattan Project was based on a true story of a single kid who had the knowledge and creativity to make a very scary nuke. The theory is not all that hard - getting the equipment and starter material is all that keeps anyone from doing it. Too many people have the idea that a WMD program is too unwieldy to get done quickly. They are wrong.
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#62
'By the various branches of government', Bill? So good to see you trust the government to get the intelligence right, so why don't trust the various branches in matters of economy, but the 'free market'?
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#63
Said nothing about "trust" - just history. I dislike disinformation in any form.
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#64
(08-13-2012, 12:14 PM)WmLambert Wrote: Those reasons on the list were not haphazard "whatifs." They were the actual reasons cited in news stories and official communications by the various branches of government.
and it is quite interesting that the get-rich-by-raising-the-oil-price reason is not on the list. Clearly it is not haphazard, there is a long term tradition in the Washington to favor selected industries and receive kickbacks. This omission makes it only more probably that this is the true rationale; it also provides evidence that the media is controlled better than one would believe.

Glory to the Plutocratic Demopublican State!

Quote:...Objective or subjective, they were the stated facts used to inform the public.

Yes, THEY lie.

Quote:The DPRK, of course, has always held our ally, South Korea, hostage with the treat of invasion or nukes.

Not all that important, but you are incorrect here. The #1 threat is neither, it is a simple conventional artillery instead. Seoul can be taken out with a day worth of artillery shells, and the world's economy will come crashing down, interfering with the ability of the current bloodsucker-in-chief to further enrich himself.

Nukes are incidental, albeit obviously useful for NK in extracting tributes from Washington.

Quote:Remember also, it was proved that Iraq did have the programs (and reference strains for biological WMD), themselves, hidden away, as well as the stockpiles removed - so that after hostilities had ended, they could quickly re-institute their WMD. Some could be ramped up in less than two weeks, while others would take longer. Dirty bombs can be made fairly rapidly. Nukes would need materiel from North Korea or elsewhere, to skip the years of development many Polyannas use as a palliative safety factor.

Lots of countries have such programs. No big deal, really. If anything, one should worry about the Iranian program, it has a real chance to lead to mushroom clouds soon enough.

Quote:Too many people have the idea that a WMD program is too unwieldy to get done quickly. They are wrong.

They are right. Iranian program started in the Shah's days, and Jerusalem, Rome, and Washington are still standing. Not for the lack of wanting from the Iranians, it simply takes take.
Sodomia delenda est

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#65
WmL Wrote:Remember also, it was proved that Iraq did have the programs
Yes 20 years ago.
Not after Operation Desert Storm.

When Saddam lost Kuwait and had his army destroyed while withdrawing, he gave up entirely on the nuclear program. His nuclear plant had been destroyed by the Israelis in 1985 and neer rebuild since.

After 2003's invasion US forces found only fertilizer as the only "WMD" they could find.
I have the same kind of fertilizer in my garden warehouse. Don't you want to invade it and occupy it for 10 years?
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#66
(08-13-2012, 05:00 PM)Fredledingue Wrote: ...After 2003's invasion US forces found only fertilizer as the only "WMD" they could find.

The Iraq Survey Group, ISG, found "hundreds of cases of activities that were prohibited" under U.N. Security Council resolutions in 2004. They found chemical, biological, nuclear and ballistic missiles, successfully concealed for 12 years from U.N. weapons inspectors. True some of the missiles were old, but they had not been destroyed as ordered, and their destruction had not been documented per the cease-fire agreements. Remember, Saddam sued for peace and signed concessions he was then sworn to follow for the war not to ramp up again. He didn't follow his pledged word and flaunted it.

Do you remember the villagers who became ill with radiation sickness from using old barrels from a "cleansed" site? The barrels were just barrels to hold rainwater - but they killed the people contaminated. No paperwork showed what was stored there and it was never documented to the UN weapons inspectors.

Douglas Hanson was a U.S. Army cavalry reconnaissance officer for 20 years, and a veteran of Gulf War I. He was an atomic demolitions munitions security officer and a nuclear, biological and chemical defense officer. As a civilian analyst in Iraq ..., he worked for an operations intelligence unit of the CPA in Iraq, and later, with the newly formed Ministry of Science and Technology, which was responsible for finding new, nonlethal employment for Iraqi WMD scientists.

The materials that constitute Saddam's chemical-weapons "stockpiles" look an awful lot like pesticides, which they indeed resemble.

"Pesticides are the key elements in the chemical-agent arena," Hanson says. "In fact, the general pesticide chemical formula (organophosphate) is the 'grandfather' of modern-day nerve agents."

The United Nations was fully aware that Saddam had established his chemical-weapons plants under the guise of a permitted civilian chemical-industry infrastructure. Plants inspected in the early 1990s as CW production facilities had been set up to appear as if they were producing pesticides, or in the case of a giant plant near Fallujah, chlorine, which is used to produce mustard gas.

When coalition forces entered Iraq, "huge warehouses and caches of 'commercial and agricultural' chemicals were seized and painstakingly tested by Army and Marine chemical specialists," Hanson writes. "What was surprising was how quickly the ISG refuted the findings of our ground forces and how silent they have been on the significance of these caches."

Caches of "commercial and agricultural" chemicals don't match the expectation of "stockpiles" of chemical weapons. But, in fact, that is precisely what they are. "At a very minimum," Hanson said, "they were storing the precursors to restart a chemical-warfare program very quickly."

Kay and Duelfer came to a similar conclusion, telling Congress under oath that Saddam had built new facilities and stockpiled the materials to relaunch production of chemical and biological weapons at a moment's notice. At Karbala, U.S. troops stumbled upon 55-gallon drums of pesticides at what appeared to be a very large "agricultural supply" area, Hanson says. Some of the drums were stored in a "camouflaged bunker complex" that was shown to reporters -- with unpleasant results.

"More than a dozen soldiers, a Knight-Ridder reporter, a CNN cameraman, and two Iraqi POWs came down with symptoms consistent with exposure to a nerve agent," Hanson says. "But later ISG tests resulted in a proclamation of negative, end of story, nothing to see here, etc., and the earlier findings and injuries dissolved into nonexistence. Left unexplained is the small matter of the obvious pains taken to disguise the cache of ostensibly legitimate pesticides. One wonders about the advantage an agricultural-commodities business gains by securing drums of pesticide in camouflaged bunkers 6 feet underground. The 'agricultural site' was also colocated with a military ammunition dump -- evidently nothing more than a coincidence in the eyes of the ISG."

That wasn't the only significant find by coalition troops of probable CW stockpiles, Hanson believes. Near the northern Iraqi town of Bai'ji, where Saddam had built a chemical-weapons plant known to the United States from nearly 12 years of inspections, elements of the 4th Infantry Division found 55-gallon drums containing a substance identified through mass spectrometry analysis as cyclosarin -- a nerve agent.

Nearby were surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles, gas masks and a mobile laboratory that could have been used to mix chemicals at the site.

"Of course, later tests by the experts revealed that these were only the ubiquitous pesticides that everybody was turning up," Hanson says. "It seems Iraqi soldiers were obsessed with keeping ammo dumps insect-free, according to the reading of the evidence now enshrined by the conventional wisdom that 'no WMD stockpiles have been discovered.'"
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#67
Amazing to watch you making things up. S3
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
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#68
I'm calling Hanson's mother to write you an angry letter.
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#69
Indeed WmL, it's all what they found.
No combat ready ammunition.
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#70
Of course there was no combat-ready war materiel. You first have to take the pesticides out of the camouflaged drums and put it in the canisters sitting next to them - then they become weaponized. Until then, they are just there to kill crickets at the ammo dump - by the quadrillions. What they found was the real deal. What you read about was something else.

Are you saying the reference strains of biologicals documented were not really hidden? ...Just put under kitchen sinks in desolate farmhouses by accident? ...And not documented to the UN investigators per the cease-fire signed agreements?
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#71
You just don't fill shells with pesticides and bombard the ennemy.
You need special explosives and special shell design to use with a foreseable effect.
Did they find them?

IMO Saddan had bought the easiest part of it, then stored it there for decades realizing that it was much more complicated than he thought.
Chemical Ali managed to get a few bombs ready for the Kurds (perhaps samples), but the rest of the stack remained unused and unusable in the warehouse.
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#72
Are you saying the "pesticides" stored in ammunition dumps were there to kill cockroaches?

And, yes, depending on the toxin, you can just fill a canister and explode it. The more deadly kind needed double-cylinders that combined at the end to produce the desired effect.

You can fill landmines with the stuff - there are many uses - but the main idea is the fear it produces on the battlefield

What did Saddam use against the Kurds and against Iran? The simpler the system, the more dangerous it is.
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#73
Borrowing this thread to further the Iraqi WMD program debate. Here are some 400 old grad rockets sold to the CIA allegedly back in 05-06 era. They are degraded, yet they do not appear to be part of the 18.5K grads Iraq declared to UNSCOM previously.

Beyond all other questions, how fortunate are the naive people who agree to serve in combat for this nation that the salesman sold to us and not a rebel bunch? It became more rather than less likely this sarin gas would be used against us when we invaded Iraq:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/world/...pe=nyt_now
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