Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Egypt's Coming Implosion
#21
Some authoritarian rulers seem to do good job preparing the society: consider Franco or Pinochet. Mubarak *should have* done this but clearly failed.

$1M question: is it Mubarak or is it Islam?

If you can answer this, you will have a much better sense of what is to expect.

Yet another answer would be Islam+Arabs, because you also have the example of Ataturk...seemingly a success....seemingly, for a while only.
Government is necessary because people left unchecked will do evil.

The government is composed of people left unchecked


Reply
#22
(12-05-2011, 09:50 PM)mv Wrote: Some authoritarian rulers seem to do good job preparing the society: consider Franco or Pinochet. Mubarak *should have* done this but clearly failed.

$1M question: is it Mubarak or is it Islam?

If you can answer this, you will have a much better sense of what is to expect.

Yet another answer would be Islam+Arabs, because you also have the example of Ataturk...seemingly a success....seemingly, for a while only.

I was just getting ready to comment along those lines, but decided to go to the next page first,.......and here is your post. Like minds...........................S5

As for Franco and Pinochet, is their religion the 'Religion of Peace'? So in answer to your question, the obvious answer is the later.

And as for Turks, Islam alone is bad enough. But Islam and Arabs,..................double whammy IMO.


Here is the thing: Kamil pretty much answered this issue some time ago. He has stated that he is officially a Muslim, but does not 'practice'. Of course, living here he does not have to put on an appearance or lose his head.

But in countries where Islam is explicitly, or implicitly, running things one would do well to put on a veneer of faithfulness.

In the West, one does not have to do this with Christianity, and preserve one's health. In fact, in many instances persecuting Christians is the norm. But unlike Islam, Christianity thrives on persecution, so all that really works in favour of Christianity.

But Islam is different. If you remotely did anything like that in the world of Islam, your life will most likely be short and painful. And that is why Islam will eventually fail. But until then, the death count will be unusually high. Egypt will be no exception.

If Islam suddenly became tolerant, once the distrust, and fear of reprisals, died out Islam would just be a shell of itself , and the devout would be surrounded by hordes of unbelievers.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
#23
(12-06-2011, 06:48 AM)John L Wrote: If Islam suddenly became tolerant, once the distrust, and fear of reprisals, died out Islam would just be a shell of itself , and the devout would be surrounded by hordes of unbelievers.

I can't ever see that happening. Unless we nuked that giant black microwave inside of Mecca and it just happened to stop the brain control of over a billion people.

The religion is so closely tied to local and regional politics that it's impossible to separate the two. They gather on Friday's for their Two Minute Hate then hit the streets to push the Mullah's agenda on the public. If their Governments were to silence the Mullah's, the reaction from the peons would put the government at risk of open rebellion. It's a sick twisted never-ending spiral of hate and oppression, fueled by a savage ignorance and a desire to control regional events through the local level.

Once Christianity was separated from the Kings and Queens, reform was able to happen. I don't think this can ever happen with Islam, as leat not in our lifetime.

Anyway. Neat article on Egypt's Black Swan.

Quote:Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite. These arti´Čücially constrained systems become prone to "Black Swans" -- that is, they become extremely vulnerable to large-scale events that lie far from the statistical norm and were largely unpredictable to a given set of observers.

[Image: 760.png]
Reply
#24
What I mean is that Mubarak and other muslim leaders have failed to improve the condition of their poeple enough.
Islam is the last hope of the poors. The Broderhood distributed food and helth care aid to million of them. Now they get the vote.
The radical salafist, get the vote too, because poor poeple think that radical change is needed.

It's amazing that there are still so many poeple believing thet "Islam will sove the problems".
But as baradei said, they will be quickely disapointed.

There is a false perception among muslims that Islamism makes the poeple better off because of Saudi Arabia. But nobody speaks of countries without oil. They will see themselves that Allah Almighty is not giving dollars that easily while you bend to him.

The Brotherhood could buy vote by giving basic things to the most in need, but they won't be able to make the whole nation prosper.
Policies based on supertition, religion and a book written 1350 years ago must fail.
Reply
#25
Why must they fail? They've survived mostly intact till now. And are even more resurgent in parts of the Middle East.
Reply
#26
GU4, I didn't say they failed to keep power for 20, 30, ...40 years. I said that they failed to bring their poeple to an evoluated state of civilisation. Their system stayed based on corruption, military power, contempt for what the poeple may believe or think (they actualy thought of Islam as the best source of hope during all this time).
Reply
#27
The Arabs must be republicans because they cling to their guns and religion.

Seriously, what do you expect from countries with large numbers of isolated poor people who are tribal and religiously inclined (in spades)? And who are quite emotional about their religion, witness the Sunni - Shia venom and the hatred of the decadent West on moral grounds. Yes, some of the educated wish for the freedoms and styles of the West, but they are an impotent minority among the seething hordes of the poor and tribal.
Jefferson: I place economy among the first and important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our choice between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.
Reply
#28
Doesn't look promising in Egypt:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/01/world/....html?_r=2
Reply
#29
I wonder what will happen when people start starving to death over there? Will the government collapse again, or will it start killing people. Personally, I suspect they will begin doing the later before the former occurs.

I'll be waiting for all the commercials, showing starving Egyptian children, and some speaker pleading for us to contribute to save them.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
#30
More than likely, there will be a big war effort I would imagine if starvation is really a reality.
Reply
#31
So what exactly is going on in Egypt? Why is the society falling apart?
Reply
#32
Soccer and Islam, that's an unholy alliance.

73 people killed
"You know, Paul, Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." Dick Cheney
Reply
#33
Anon,

The thinking is that Egypt is facing starvation for various reasons(mainly because they import a majority of their food AND they are rapidly running out of foreign reserves to import food) as well as economic collapse. Whether or not this comes to fruition is an open question.
Reply
#34
This whole thing just keeps getting worse: Street battles rage on outside Cairo ministry. My guess is that the Muslim Brotherhood is going to have to start using violence, all in the name of Islam of course, in order to keep a lid on the pressure cooker.

Egypt receives huge sums of money from other Gulf oil producing countries, and countries such as the US. And they still cannot make ends meet. I wonder how long these 'Sugar Daddies' are going to keep pouring in funds to keep the thing going? One of the things that almost always leads to an overthrow of governments is famine an a government's inability, or failure, to keep the country fed. And usually that cause is not understood by others.


What is also of ultimate importance concerns the migration of perhaps millions of refugees. How many backward, uneducated, and zealous Muslims will the US admit?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
#35
Q Wrote:Soccer and Islam, that's an unholy alliance.
No Matter. The soccer stuff is only a surfacing sign that the West was behind the Arab Spring.
But it's interresting that soccer fanaticism is growing in the arab world as far as Afghanistan.
IMO it's the first step away from barbarism.

And even better it's not something Islamists can stop. When poeple get into football, it's stronger than any other religion.
The Islamists will have to compose with soccer to rule the country, I'm serious.

The problem is that you can't spread soccer fanatism to poeple earning $3 a day and nearly starving. It costs some money to be a football fan even if you don't attent matches. But it costs nothing to attend a mosqe and while football takes money off poeple's pockets, the mullahs on the contrary distribute some money or goods to the poorests.
Reply
#36
(02-04-2012, 06:14 PM)Fredledingue Wrote:
Q Wrote:Soccer and Islam, that's an unholy alliance.
No Matter. The soccer stuff is only a surfacing sign that the West was behind the Arab Spring.
But it's interresting that soccer fanaticism is growing in the arab world as far as Afghanistan.
IMO it's the first step away from barbarism.

Sure got me fooled Fred. If I didn't know better already, I'd think it was the first step Toward barbarism.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
#37
Now, that's likely to rile our European friends, John L.
Reply
#38
It seems Washington is starting to realize that the 'Arab Spring' in Egypt hasn't worked out the way they thought.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it.
H. L. Mencken
Reply
#39
Ah...the ahistorical that forever ignored the institutional realities of Egypt in the 20th century. Nasser instituted a government whose principal institutional framework was the military with the reality obscured by populist rhetoric. And it remained such through the successors, who unlike him, did not have the luxury of dying in their beds. As for all of this talk about "democracy and football"...hmm what about the Byzantine emperors and the Hippodrome?
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the former."

Albert Einstein
Reply
#40
I feel better when I see these retards fighting in the context of a soccer match. That shows how serious their political ideology is. LOL.

They don;t fight for their tribe or religious tradition, but for a 12 guys hitting a ball with their feet.
That's much less dangerous and more controlable than religious or political fanatism.

I'm not saying it's a step toward democracy, but it's more in line with Western civilisation, versus all-relgious ones.

As for teh 43 americans on trial....
Another supid operation by poeple in Washington who have no clue about the situation on the ground. I'm sure all those in trial now believed they had quasi diplomatic immunity just for the fact that they carry american passports.

It's not the way we wanted, and frankly this is not that important. It's just Wind of Change for them. Change German rock band Scorpion's guitar for monorythmic arab music and you get the picture.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)